Group 1 - The current trend of the US dollar appears to be more aligned with changes in economic growth expectations rather than fluctuations in interest rate differentials [1]

芦哲、张佳炜、韦祎 （芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：本周特朗普罢免美联储理事与温和PCE数据令降息预期进一步升温，美股上行美债利率下行，10年期美债利率降2.53bps至4.228%；但科技股 抛售令美股由涨转跌，标普500、纳斯达克指数分别收跌0.10%、0.19%。本周公布的美国Q2 GDP修正值在商业投资的拉动下上修幅度超预期，同时海外 分析师上修对Q3美国经济的增长预期。海外政治方面，本周一特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联储理事库克，成为1913年美联 储成立以来首次，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。预计库克将一路上诉至最高法院，而美联储则采取中立态度，称将"遵守法院发布的任何命令"。同时 本周美国联邦巡回上诉法院正式裁定特朗普援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收对等关税的行为违法，但允许等关税征收至10月14日。预计后续 特朗普上诉期间最高法院将允许特朗普继续征收关税直至判决结果出炉，对等关税对通胀和经济增长的压力料将持续存在。 大类资产：特朗普罢免美联储理事与温和PCE数据令降息预期进一步升温，美股上行美债利率下行；但科技股抛 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data and inflation remains controlled [1][2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, challenging the legality of her dismissal, and claims that any issues with mortgage documents may be mere "clerical errors" [1] - The European Commission proposed two legislative measures to implement a joint tariff declaration with the U.S., which includes the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU cars and parts from 27.5% to 15% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, indicating a pause in easing policies until financial imbalances in real estate, credit, and foreign exchange markets are significantly alleviated [1] - The Bank of Korea raised its 2025 economic growth forecast from 0.8% to 0.9% and increased its inflation forecast from 1.9% to 2.0% [1] Group 3 - Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, indicating continued weak market confidence and unclear economic recovery prospects [2] - U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized revised growth rate increased by 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, indicating stability in the job market [2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 45,636.9 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.32% to 6,501.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.53% to 21,705.16 points, with both the Dow and S&P reaching new closing highs [3] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.27% to $39.71 per ounce [4] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.27% to $64.32 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.31% to $67.65 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.64 basis points to 3.627%, while the 5-year yield fell by 1.24 basis points to 3.687%, the 10-year yield decreased by 3.29 basis points to 4.201%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4.68 basis points to 4.872% [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.33% to 97.87, with the euro rising by 0.38% against the dollar to 1.1682 [5]

欧元兑美元在日线图上逼近1.1750附近的趋势线阻力，此处可能吸引空头入场，目标看向1.1575支撑 位。若成功突破，则可能开启新一轮上涨。在4小时图上，上行动能有所减弱，价格或在1.1600支撑位 与趋势线之间盘整。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间10:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1632，涨幅0.15%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。欧元区7月CPI数据与初值一致，整 体通胀率同比维持在2.0%，符合预期。 核心通胀环比下降0.2%，同比涨幅为2.3%，显示通胀粘性并未出现明显加速迹象。这一数据在一定程 度上缓解了市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧，也使得投资者对欧洲央行短期内进一步采取紧缩政策的预期维 持在相对温和的水平。欧洲央行行长拉加德稍早在日内瓦发表讲话，她指出，尽管近期达成的多项经贸 协议有助于稳定外部环境，但并未完全消除全球经济面临的不确定性。与此同时，她对今年第四季度的 经济增长预期作出了更为谨慎的判断，暗示欧元区可能面临一定的下行压力。不过，拉加德也同时肯 定，今年以来欧元区经济在面对多重冲击时表现出一定的韧性。总体来看，拉加德的发言姿态中 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean government has revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down to 0.9% [1] - The government anticipates that the economic growth rate will double next year to 1.8% [1] - Economic growth was weak in the first quarter (0%) and second quarter (0.5%), but a recovery is expected in the second half of the year due to policy measures such as supplementary budgets [1] Group 2 - The growth forecast takes into account various negative factors, including emergency measures, impeachment issues, and new U.S. tariff policies [1] - The forecast does not reflect the recent U.S. announcement of separate tariffs on semiconductors [1]

Core Insights - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports in July fell by 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.8% decline, primarily due to a drop in pharmaceutical exports [1][1][1] - The Singapore government raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 from a range of 0.0%-2.0% to 1.5%-2.5% following better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year [1][1][1] - Despite a free trade agreement with the U.S. and a trade deficit with the U.S., Singapore is still subject to a 10% tariff, which may impact future economic growth [1][1][1] Export Performance - Non-oil exports to the U.S., China, and Indonesia decreased in July, while exports to the EU, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong increased [1][1][1] - The Singapore Economic Development Board maintained its forecast for non-oil export growth at 1%-3% for the year, anticipating some weakness in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1] Trade Policy Concerns - Singapore's Prime Minister expressed uncertainty regarding potential increases in U.S. tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, highlighting the pressure on small open economies due to rising trade barriers [1][1][1]

Group 1 - Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, translating to an annualized growth rate of 1.0% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while business investment in equipment rose by 1.3% and residential investment grew by 0.8% [1] - Public demand, including government consumption and public investment, decreased by 0.3%, contributing negatively to domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The Japanese Cabinet Office revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 from 1.2% to 0.7%, citing the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's exports [2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. is expected to have a direct effect, while reduced exports from other countries to the U.S. will indirectly affect Japan's exports of intermediate goods [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Korea Development Institute (KDI) maintains its economic growth forecast for South Korea at 0.8% for this year, despite the last-minute trade agreement with the U.S. that mitigated the impact of punitive tariff increases [1] Economic Growth Forecast - KDI's forecast for South Korea's economic growth remains unchanged at 0.8% for this year, consistent with its May prediction [1] - The positive impact of government stimulus plans on consumer confidence is being offset by declining construction investment and ongoing weak exports due to U.S. tariff increases [1] Trade Agreement Impact - The recent trade agreement reduced the proposed U.S. tariff cap on South Korean exports from 25% to 15%, helping South Korea avoid more severe economic repercussions [1] - However, the new terms are less favorable than the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and KDI warns that current tariff levels and uncertainties remain high compared to previous years [1] Export Growth Outlook - KDI projects only moderate growth in goods exports over the next two years, as the negative effects of tariff increases are expected to become apparent starting in the second half of this year [1]

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading, driven by strong performances in the information technology, healthcare, and financial sectors [1][3] - As of the latest report, the KOSPI index maintained a gain of approximately 1.9%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Sk Biopharma (up over 16%) and Samsung SDI (up over 12%) [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the International Monetary Fund [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation exceeding 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with the average retail price of watermelon reaching 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), reflecting a 33.7% increase from the previous month and a 17.6% increase from the same period last year [5][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise month-on-month, and cabbages, which increased by 68% [7] Weather Impact - South Korea is experiencing one of the most severe heatwaves on record, with July temperatures reaching 33 degrees Celsius or higher on 15 days, significantly impacting agricultural production and prices [8]

Market Performance - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the KOSPI index rising over 2% during intraday trading [2][3] - Key sectors such as information technology, healthcare, and finance showed strong performance, with IT and healthcare sectors increasing by over 3% [3] - Notable individual stock performances included SK Biopharma rising over 16% and Samsung SDI increasing over 12% [3] Economic Outlook - The South Korean government plans to utilize all policy tools, including fiscal, tax, and regulatory reforms, to achieve an economic growth forecast of 1% for the year, which is higher than the predictions from the Bank of Korea and the IMF [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the second consecutive month of inflation above 2% [3][4] Price Trends - The prices of agricultural products, particularly fruits and vegetables, have surged due to extreme heat, with watermelon prices reaching an average of 33,337 KRW (approximately 173 RMB), a 33.7% increase from the previous month [6][7] - Other notable price increases include tomatoes, which saw a nearly 70% rise in average price compared to the previous month, and cabbage prices exceeding 6,000 KRW [6][7] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased by $1.13 billion to $411.33 billion, following a decline to a five-year low in May [5] - The increase in reserves was attributed to the issuance of new foreign exchange stabilization fund bonds and improved returns on foreign assets [5]