摩洛哥360网站1月14日报道，世界银行在近日发布的《全球经济展望》报告中，对摩洛哥经济作出审慎 乐观的评估。报告指出，2025年摩洛哥受益于农业复苏将实现约5%的经济增长，但在全球不确定性增 加的背景下，中期前景趋于温和。预计2026年增速将放缓至4.4%，2027年保持相近水平。尽管较2025 年有所回落，这一增速仍高于中东和北非地区3.6%的平均水平，显示出相对稳健的增长态势。 当前摩洛哥面临多重结构性挑战。全球贸易放缓和贸易限制增多可能抑制制造业发展势头，农业复苏的 常态化也将削弱其对增长的支撑。劳动力市场承受着巨大人口压力，为青年和女性创造就业成为紧迫任 务。此外，经济需进一步降低对大型发达经济体的依赖，通过深化区域一体化和伙伴多元化来增强韧 性。 为保持增长动力，世界银行建议摩洛哥深化结构性改革。重点包括：激活私营部门、减少非正规经济、 促进就业，并将适应气候变化与发展绿色经济作为核心战略。 在宏观经济稳定性方面，摩洛哥取得了一定进展。财政赤字预计随财政整固而收窄，侨汇与旅游收入增 长则改善了经常账户平衡。 ...

近年来，德国经济持续承压，增长乏力。德国总理默茨近日表示，德国经济形势在某些领域"非常严 峻"，2026年应将提振经济作为首要任务。作为欧洲最大经济体，德国经济正处于一个关键的十字路 口，其未来走向不仅关乎本国发展，也对整个欧盟经济格局具有深远影响。 回溯历史，德国在2003年推动"2010议程"结构性改革后，成功提升劳动力市场灵活性，增强了企业竞争 力，并在2008年国际金融危机及随后的欧债危机中展现出较强韧性，一度被誉为"欧洲经济稳定器"。然 而，自2018年以来，德国经济增速显著放缓。据德国联邦统计局数据，2018年至2025年，德国经济年均 增长率仅约0.3%，远低于2008—2017年的1.3%。尤其是2023年和2024年，德国连续两年陷入技术性衰 退。2025年工业企业破产数量超过1600家，创近12年新高。2019年以来，制造业岗位减少约40万 个，"去工业化"趋势日益凸显。 外部冲击无疑是德国经济下行的重要诱因。2018年起，全球贸易摩擦加剧，特别是美国对欧盟在内的主 要经济体加征关税，以及欧美对俄制裁，严重冲击高度依赖出口的德国工业体系。俄乌冲突爆发后，德 国加速摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖，导 ...

Group 1 - Germany's GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% in 2025, marking the first growth after two consecutive years of recession [1] - In 2024, Germany's economy is expected to decline by 0.5%, following a 0.9% decline in 2023 [1] - The growth in 2025 is primarily driven by increased consumption from private households and government spending [1] Group 2 - Germany's export value is anticipated to decrease by 0.3% in 2025, continuing a three-year decline [1] - Investment remains weak, with both equipment and construction investments lower than the previous year [1] - Economic confidence among German businesses has declined for two consecutive months, indicating a cautious outlook for 2026 [1] Group 3 - Economists predict a potential economic growth of about 1% in 2026, supported by increased working days and government investments in military and infrastructure [2] - A significant economic recovery may not occur until 2027, when the effects of large-scale government investments are expected to materialize [2] - Structural reforms are deemed essential to ensure that fiscal spending does not become a temporary measure after relaxing debt brakes [2]

野村证券最新报告指出，市场将日本可能提前举行的大选单纯解读为将加剧"再通胀"存在误判。该行认 为，其核心政策目标可能并非强化短期通胀，而是为推进更深层次的结构性改革。 据追风交易台，报告表示，提前大选还可能为日本央行带来更大的政策自由度。市场目前定价日本央行 在4月加息的概率为39%，若高市早苗在大选中获胜，可能使日本央行在制定货币政策时拥有更灵活的 空间，减少对密集政治日程的顾虑。 1月13日，据央视新闻，日本首相高市早苗向自民党干部传达了将在23日解散众议院，提前举行大选的 意向。消息后，市场再现"旧版高市交易"模式，日股大涨创新高，而国债与日元则同步承压。分析普遍 认为，更强的民意授权将巩固高市早苗扩张性财政立场及对宽松货币政策的偏好，这虽利好股市，但也 加剧了市场对日本债务可持续性的担忧，从而引发债市与汇市的抛售。 野村警告称，当前围绕大选的猜测将持续影响市场。如果投资者继续押注于"旧版高市经济"的延续，可 能推动日元进一步走软和债市收益率曲线熊市陡峭化。然而，投资者需警惕风险：若大选结果最终成为 政策转向结构性改革的契机，那么当前基于通胀和宽松预期的市场定价可能需要大幅修正。 野村判断：转向结构改革 ...

新华财经开罗1月13日电 2025年，埃及经济在地缘冲突持续扰动的背景下展现出显著韧性，埃镑汇率实 现近十年来罕见的稳中走强，全年升值约6%。埃镑走势远超2025年初国际机构的普遍预期，其背后是 侨汇、旅游业和外国直接投资三大外汇来源的协同发力，以及结构性改革带来的宏观经济指标全面改 善。 展望2026年，埃及经济有望在结构性改革深化与外部账户改善的支撑下延续复苏态势。国际机构普遍预 测2025/2026财年GDP增速将落在4.5%至4.7%区间。埃镑汇率预计将保持相对稳定，惠誉和渣打银行均 认为美元兑埃镑将在47.5至49之间窄幅波动，得益于侨汇、旅游业和外国直接投资三大外汇来源持续强 劲，以及净国际储备有望升至526亿美元。尽管如此，能源进口依赖、青年失业及债务压力等结构性挑 战仍可能制约中长期增长动能。 埃及2025年经济企稳但结构性挑战犹存 2025年，埃及宏观经济呈现显著改善迹象。官方数据显示，该国年度通货膨胀率由2024年底的24.1%大 幅回落至10.3%；净国际储备从471亿美元增至514亿美元，增加43亿美元；2025年前11个月对外贸易逆 差为303亿美元，同比收窄11.9%。三项核心指标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the European economy is expected to show unexpected resilience in 2025, with a continued recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support in 2026, particularly focusing on the effects of fiscal expansion in Germany [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fiscal Policy - In 2025, Germany's government initiated a crucial fiscal transformation amid a backdrop of low growth, with GDP significantly lagging behind other developed economies due to structural challenges like energy costs [4]. - Private consumption and fixed capital formation have seen a decline in their contributions to GDP growth, dropping from pre-pandemic averages of 0.8% and 0.6% to recent figures of 0.2% and -0.5% respectively [4]. - Industrial production has been on a downward trend since peaking in 2018, with significant declines in sectors such as automotive, basic metals, and machinery [4][8]. Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, fiscal policy outcomes were below expectations, leading to weak economic momentum, with Q2 showing negative growth and Q3 stagnating [13]. - The IFO business climate index weakened post-Q3, while the ZEW economic expectations index showed slight recovery but remained below Q2 levels [13]. - Private consumption weakened in Q3, although government consumption accelerated, and fixed capital formation began contributing positively to GDP growth [13][19]. Group 3: Industrial Production and Orders - By November 2025, industrial production showed signs of improvement, particularly in construction, with a 1% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23]. - Domestic orders saw significant recovery, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 17% in October and November respectively, marking the highest levels since January 2022 [30]. - The increase in domestic orders was primarily driven by sectors such as other transport equipment and metal products, reflecting ongoing defense spending [30]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Market expectations for Germany's growth in 2026 remain cautious, with Bloomberg forecasting a real GDP growth of around 1%, similar to pre-fiscal shift levels [34]. - The German government has initiated structural reforms aimed at boosting potential growth, although the actual impact of these reforms is still to be observed [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy faces both strategic opportunities and risks during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a long-term positive trend remaining intact despite short-term challenges [4]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - Current economic pressures stem from cyclical factors due to insufficient demand, external environment impacts, and structural factors leading to a decline in traditional growth drivers [4]. - Structural factors include the diminishing returns from traditional growth drivers such as reform dividends, globalization, demographic advantages, and industrialization, which contribute to a lower potential growth rate [4]. Group 2: New Growth Drivers - New growth drivers can be cultivated through deepening reforms and structural transformations, which are essential for high-quality economic development [4]. - Key new growth drivers identified include: - **Technological Innovation**: The rise of market-oriented technological innovations from small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly in regions like Hangzhou, is expected to become a new growth engine [4]. - **Deep Urbanization**: The integration of urban clusters such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area can significantly boost GDP growth, with a 1% increase in urbanization rate potentially leading to a 1.8% GDP growth [5]. - **Consumption Upgrade**: Improving consumption rates and quality through reforms in income distribution and fiscal policies can drive economic growth [5]. - **Structural Reform Dividends**: Continued structural reforms, including state-owned enterprise reforms and market unification, can release economic vitality and promote growth [5]. - **Quality of Labor**: The transition towards higher-quality labor, particularly in technology sectors, presents a cost advantage that can enhance productivity [6][7]. Group 3: Growth Projections - While growth rates may not reach the optimistic 8% forecasted by some, achieving a growth rate of 5%-6% during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans is feasible if new growth drivers are effectively stimulated [8]. - The goal of reaching a per capita GDP of around $20,000 by 2035 requires an average annual growth rate of approximately 4.72% from 2020 to 2035 [8]. Group 4: Modern Industrial System - Constructing a modern industrial system is crucial for transforming growth drivers, with a focus on optimizing traditional industries and fostering strategic emerging industries [9]. - The integration of innovation with industry and the digital economy with the real economy is essential for developing a modern industrial framework [9]. Group 5: Role of Institutional Innovation - Institutional innovation is necessary to support technological advancements and provide effective protection for intellectual property, which is vital for the integration of innovation and industry [10]. - Comprehensive reforms to establish a high-level socialist market economy are critical for driving high-quality development [10].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target, according to ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor, Pereira [1][6][7] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Pereira emphasized that the responsibility has shifted to national governments and the EU to implement structural reforms to address the sluggish growth in the Eurozone [1][6] - He highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1][6] - The ECB has completed its role in supporting the economy when necessary, and now it is up to governments and the European Commission to drive reforms [1][6] Group 2: Employment Data - Eurozone unemployment rate decreased from 6.4% in October to 6.3% in November, marking the first decline since April of the previous year [1][7] - This drop in unemployment is significant as it is the first time the rate has been at this level since hitting a historical low of 6.2% in November 2024 [1][7] - The unexpected decline in unemployment indicates a tight labor market despite sluggish economic activity, reinforcing confidence in the stability of the labor market in the region [1][7]

伊朗梅尔通讯1月3日报道，伊朗货币市场面临的核心挑战在于缺乏对外汇流动的有效监管及对资金来源 与去向的监督。经济专家侯赛尼指出，汇率波动源于四大因素：一是里亚尔被排除在美元体系外，依赖 非正式渠道结算；二是本国银行尤其是部分私营银行创造无担保货币，助长投机与通胀，政府为弥补赤 字操纵汇率，形成"赤字—通胀"恶性循环；三是出口商大量外汇未回流；四是公众因不信任本币而囤积 美元或房产，推高预防性美元需求。侯赛尼强调，仅靠提高官方汇率无法稳定市场，反而会强化贬值预 期，扰乱通胀心理。解决方法是推进结构性改革、建立正规支付系统、整顿金融秩序，并重建财政纪 律。（驻伊朗使馆经商处） ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target level [1] Group 1: ECB's Current Stance - ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira stated that the ECB is in a good position and has achieved price stability [1] - Pereira emphasized that monetary policy has fulfilled its role in supporting the economy when necessary [1] Group 2: Responsibility Shift - The responsibility for addressing the sluggish growth in the European economy has shifted to national governments and the European Union [1] - Pereira highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1] - He stated that reforms must be advanced to fully leverage the potential of the 450 million consumer market in Europe, particularly within the single market [1]