Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI in July fell to 50.1 from 50.8, nearing the threshold of expansion and contraction[1] - The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48, marking five consecutive months in contraction territory[1] - The prices paid index surged to 69.9, a 34-month high, indicating increased cost pressures on consumer prices[1] Employment and Market Outlook - Recent non-farm payroll data suggests a weakening labor market, with initial jobless claims remaining elevated[1] - Short-term outlook for U.S. equities indicates potential downward pressure due to slowing corporate earnings growth and historical volatility in September[1] - The large-cap tech sector may benefit from a potential interest rate cut cycle, which could lower financing costs and support profit resilience[2] Risks and Recommendations - Risks include unexpected inflation rebound and delayed Fed rate cuts, as well as a sharper-than-expected economic downturn impacting corporate profits[3] - Historical experience suggests that market corrections during economic soft landing phases can present opportunities for quality asset accumulation[2]

Group 1 - The central bank of China adjusted the RMB to USD midpoint rate to 7.1345, an increase of 64 points [2] Group 2 - Federal Reserve official Kashkari noted that the economy is slowing down and suggested that two rate cuts this year may still be appropriate [4] - There is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the Fed needs to respond to the economic slowdown [4] - Wage growth is declining, indicating a cooling labor market, and the Fed is cautious about employment data revisions [4] Group 3 - Bond traders are increasing bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations of three rate cuts in the remaining meetings [5] - Some positions are betting on a 50 basis point cut in the next meeting, driven by weak economic indicators [5] - A recent report indicated stagnation in the U.S. services sector growth in July, heightening market concerns [5]

明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）最新表示，美国经济正在放缓，可能使得短期内 降息成为合适的政策选择。 当地时间周三（8月6日），卡什卡利接受采访时说道："经济正在放缓。短期内，开始调整联邦基金利 率可能是合适的。" 他补充道，关税仍是一个重大的不确定性，目前尚不清楚它们将对通胀产生何种影响，"我们还能等多 久才能看清关税的效应？这正是我现在所忧虑的。" 卡什卡利称，短期内，降息这一选项可能比干等关税明朗化要更好，即使之后可能要"朝反方向调整"， 即加息。 他表示自己仍预计年底前将降息两次，但补充说，如果有迹象表明关税引发的通胀效应可能更持久，那 么决策者可能会减少降息次数。 上周，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这也是自年初以来第五次 决定维持利率不变，声明将"经济前景不确定性"作为按兵不动的主要原因。 当天，美联储主席鲍威尔在决议之后的记者会上指出，虽然更高关税税率对一些商品价格的影响已经开 始逐步显现，但其对经济活动和通胀的整体影响仍有待观察。 不过，上周五的非农报告给美联储带来了一些紧迫性。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国7月非农部门 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is experiencing a resurgence in momentum due to fears of a U.S. economic slowdown, weak labor data, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a rise of over 3% in gold prices over four days [1][5]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' job gains revised down by 258,000, raising recession fears [3]. - The services sector index fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, indicating a near standstill in business activity due to weak demand and rising costs [4]. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The weak economic data has increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with a 92% probability indicated by market tools [5]. - Lower interest rates enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset compared to fixed-income investments [5]. Tariffs and Safe-Haven Buying - The Trump administration's recent tariff hikes, ranging from 15% to 40% on various countries, have spurred safe-haven buying of gold [6]. - The inflationary pressures from these tariffs are expected to bolster gold's status as a hedge against rising prices [7]. Currency and Central Bank Activity - A weaker U.S. dollar and increased central bank purchases are contributing to the rise in gold prices, with 95% of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next year [8]. Gold Price Forecasts - Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce from $3,300, citing economic deterioration, rising inflation, and changing tariffs [9]. ETFs Performance - Gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others are expected to perform well due to rising gold prices [2][10]. - SPDR Gold Trust ETF has an AUM of $103 billion and trades about 9 million shares daily, while iShares Gold Trust has an AUM of $33 billion with 6 million shares traded daily [11][12]. - Other notable ETFs include SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (AUM: $16.2 billion), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (AUM: $5 billion), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (AUM: $3.3 billion) [13][14][15]. Conclusion - Given the prevailing economic uncertainty and potential Fed rate cuts, interest in gold ETFs is likely to remain strong in the upcoming months [16].

Group 1: Report Core View - The US dollar index strengthened to the upper edge of 100 during the week but quickly depreciated below 99 after the release of non - farm payroll data on Friday. The subsequent outlook suggests a further decline in the US dollar index, and the view of a downward trend in the US dollar is maintained for the year [2]. - The reasons for the mid - week strengthening of the US dollar include the agreement between the US and major trading partners, the closing of crowded short - dollar positions before events, and better - than - expected US Q2 GDP and ADP employment data as well as a hawkish Fed in July [2]. - The weak non - farm payroll data on Friday reversed the logic of the strengthening US dollar. The 3 - month average non - farm payrolls have been slowing since February 2025, and only 35,000 jobs were added as of July [2]. - The logic supporting the downward trend of the US dollar this year includes the slowdown of the US economy and further Fed rate cuts, the recovery of other economies and rising investment returns, and the room for the increase of foreign exchange hedging ratio [2]. Group 2: Other Observations - The spread between US and German yields oscillated downward while the US dollar index generally trended upward [4]. - The US Citigroup economic surprise index declined [5]. - The CFTC net position shows that the net short position of the US dollar has decreased [10]. - The euro swap basis indicates that the cross - border liquidity pressure of the US dollar is limited [12]. - Based on the 30 - 10Y US Treasury yield spread and 10Y swap spread, concerns about US Treasury deficits are not the main contradiction affecting the US dollar [14][17]. - The US dollar index rebounded above the 9 - day moving average, and the RSI indicator is approaching overbought [19]. - The gold - to - copper ratio declined and then rose again on August 1st. Crude oil prices climbed and then fell, and copper prices declined [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs indicates a positive trend, driven by various economic factors and market dynamics, suggesting potential for further price increases in gold [3][4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of August 6, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has risen by 0.17%, marking a four-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 7.46 yuan [3]. - Over the past week, the gold ETF has accumulated a 1.29% increase [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 1.14 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.39% [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 12.11 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 110,000, with downward revisions totaling 258,000 for May and June [4]. - The resignation of a key Federal Reserve official, coupled with political actions regarding employment data, is expected to influence market perceptions of the Fed's independence and support gold prices [4]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the U.S. job market, which has heightened expectations for a rate cut in September [4]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Performance Metrics - The gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 526 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 421 million yuan [4]. - The latest financing buy-in for the gold ETF reached 20.82 million yuan, with a financing balance of 3.612 billion yuan [4]. - Over the past five years, the gold ETF's net value has increased by 72.48%, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The gold ETF has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [5]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is reported at 2.39, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The tracking error for the gold ETF over the past month is 0.002%, reflecting high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5].

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with over 90% probability for a rate cut in September according to CME FedWatch [2] - U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a weakening labor market, reinforcing market bets on a new round of rate cuts [2] - Global trade uncertainties, exacerbated by recent tariff increases signed by President Trump, continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold may have reached a short-term peak, with bearish signals emerging [3] - A downward channel has formed in the short term, indicating potential further declines in gold prices [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385-3390, while support levels are at 3335-3340 [5]

黄金方面： 智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，倘若特朗普对俄罗斯的二级制裁没有落地，那么印度以及东方大国将继续大幅购买俄罗斯石 油，叠加在第二季度中国和印度已经囤了大量的石油，后续原油需求降低叠加产油国加大增产，油价将进一步下行，甚至有跌 破60美元的风险。 倘若美国对俄罗斯二级制裁落地，那么印度购买俄罗斯石油可能减少150万-200万桶/日，东方大国从俄罗斯购油量也会有一定的 影响，叠加产油国本身的补偿性减产协议，产油国增产幅度将达不到220万桶/日，难以弥补俄油缺口，则油价极有可能再度强 势走高。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情下行，显示近期行情偏弱势，指标上看，行情处于62日均线下方运行，警惕进一步下行 风险，日内关注下方65美元一线支撑情况。 日经225方面： 日线上，行情回调测试62日均线获得支撑并且收阳线，显示短期回调有望企稳，后续进一步走高机会较大。日内关注下方40400 一线支撑情况。 周一（8月4日）公布美国6月工厂订单月率录得-4.8%，市场预期-4.8%，前值8.3%。美国6月工厂订单月率虽然符合市场预期， 但远低于前值的8.3%，暗示在特朗普的关税政策之下，美国制造业极有可能面临衰退风险 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, particularly materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials, which dropped 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - Other developed countries also saw declines in their 10-year bond yields, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly fell, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27][39] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45][46] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52][58] Group 6 - The US economy's Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%, but internal demand showed signs of weakness [73] - Consumer spending in Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 1.5% [73] - The overall GDP growth was primarily driven by net exports, indicating a potential end to the trend of "importing" [73] Group 7 - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 104,000, with previous months' job additions revised down significantly [76] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the anticipated 7.5 million [76]

Labor Market Insights - July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, below the market expectation of 104,000[13] - Revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 125,000 and 133,000 respectively, indicating a weaker labor market than previously thought[13] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[13] Economic Trends - The labor market is entering a "relaxation" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, leading to a potential rise in the unemployment rate[2] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. increased to 18.3% after August 1, which may have a more significant short-term impact on investment than on consumption[4] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the July employment data, the market has priced in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September[3] - Fed Chair Powell indicated a focus on the unemployment rate rather than non-farm payroll numbers, suggesting that a rate cut may be contingent on unemployment exceeding 4.3%[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.4%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17 basis points to 4.2%[4] - The dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, and the offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar[4]