Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The previous value of non-farm payroll employment was revised from 139,000 to 144,000, indicating a positive adjustment in employment figures [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]

金十数据6月30日讯，金融新闻服务提供商Newsquawk表示，预计美国6月非农就业人数将增加12.9万 人，失业率预计将保持在4.2%不变，平均时薪月率预计将从0.4%降至0.3%，而平均每周工作时间预计 将保持在34.3小时不变。鲍威尔曾表示，劳动力市场仍然稳固，但他承认已出现"非常缓慢的持续降 温"，而这并不令人担忧；鲍威尔还指出，强劲的就业创造和劳动力参与率是经济持续恢复的迹象。这 种论调也得到了其他官员的呼应。尽管如此，任何"不太糟"的就业数据都可能会被特朗普抓住，作为美 联储应该降息的理由；但劳动力数据的任何意外下行也可能被特朗普当作美联储应该降息的理由。 机构：非农数据无论好坏都可以成为特朗普催促降息的理由 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly better than the market expectation of 130,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, consistent with market expectations and previous values [2] - Average hourly wages increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.8% and the expected 3.7%, indicating a resilient job market [2] Group 2 - Global geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, with reduced likelihood of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as both sides show willingness to negotiate [3] - In the Middle East, there are positive signals regarding a potential permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, and a revival of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal [3] - The market has developed a degree of immunity to geopolitical conflicts, which has diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - Tariff issues remain a key factor influencing gold price movements, with significant progress made in U.S.-China tariff negotiations [4] - The initiation of a second round of talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicates that the most severe phase of the trade war may be over [4] - The impact of tariff factors on the gold market is gradually weakening, suggesting a potential "tail-end" market phase for gold [4] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate due to rising domestic debt and the loss of dollar credibility from tariff policies, establishing a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in gold [5] - In the short term, while geopolitical tensions are entering a negotiation phase, there is a lack of upward momentum for gold prices, and investors should be cautious of potential price corrections [5] - Technically, gold prices are expected to maintain a range adjustment between $3,200 and $3,400 in June, with a prevailing bullish trend [5]

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical turning point, with the volatility of the US dollar creating opportunities for other major currencies [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials are calling for an enhancement of the euro's international status, indicating a shift in focus towards the European market [1] - Investor allocation strategies are changing, with a growing demand for diversification leading to increased attention on the European market [1] Group 2 - The euro has shown a strong upward trend against the US dollar, breaking the key resistance level of 1.14, with a recent high of 1.1454 on June 4 [3] - Data from the cross-currency basis swap market indicates a rising preference among investors for euro financing, contrasting with the historical trend of paying a premium for US dollar financing [3] - The relatively slow reduction of the ECB's balance sheet provides structural support for the euro, while the comparison of the US long-term budget deficit with Europe's stable net international investment position further strengthens the euro's relative advantage [3] Group 3 - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with non-farm payroll data aligning with signs of a slowing economy, which continues to exert pressure on the dollar [4] - The dollar index is under pressure from various factors, prompting investors to reassess their allocation towards dollar assets [4] - The dominance of the dollar as the international reserve currency is being challenged, as the economic size and trade scale of the eurozone provide a competitive foundation for the euro [4]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the expected 126,000, but down from the previous month's revised figure of 147,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[2] - The ADP report indicated a surprising drop, which lowered market expectations for the NFP figures[2] Sector Performance - The service sector contributed significantly with 145,000 new jobs, particularly in education and healthcare (87,000) and leisure and hospitality (48,000)[2] - The manufacturing sector saw a decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs, attributed to a slowdown in retail demand impacting production[2] - Government employment decreased slightly by 1,000 jobs, primarily due to federal layoffs, although local government jobs increased[2] Wage Growth and Market Implications - Average hourly earnings showed an upward trend across most sectors, excluding retail and transportation, indicating persistent wage growth[2] - The data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not rush to cut interest rates due to the sticky wage levels, despite the overall cooling in the job market[2] - Following the report, market risk appetite increased, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar[2]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index rose over 1.1%, the Dow Jones increased by 530 points with a gain of more than 1.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 260 points, up over 1.3% [1] - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, Trump praised the employment figures as "outstanding," attributing the significant rise in the stock market to these positive employment statistics [1] Group 2 - The latest stock price reached 6008.13, reflecting an increase of 68.83 or 1.16% from the previous close of 5939.30 [2] - The trading volume was reported at 459 million shares, indicating active market participation [2] - The stock experienced a daily high of 6016.87 and a low of 5987.06, with a trading range of 0.50% [2]

美国就业好或坏，非农数据来把脉。美国5月非农就业人数将新增多少人？点击参与竞猜，赢取红包大 奖>> 相关链接 非农竞猜日，红包送不停 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 4月美国非农就业数据超出市场预期。新增非农就业人数17.7万（市场预期13.8万），失业率4.2%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率62.6%（市场预期62.5%），平均时薪同比增速3.8%（市场预期3.9%）。 表1：美国非农就业人数稳步增长 | | 就业人数权重 | | 较上月变动(万人) | | 新增就业人数(万人) | | 近三个月均值(万人) | | 较上月变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025年4月 | 2025年3月 | 2025年2月 | | | | | 新增非农就业 | 100% | 3 | -0. 8 | 17.7 | 18.5 | 10. 2 | 15. 5 | | | | 修正幅度 | | | | | -1.8 | 1.6 | | | | | 私人部门 | 85. 20% | P | -0.3 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 10. 7 | 14.8 | + | -0. 1 | | 商品 | 13. 61% | 1 | 0.2 ...