1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Globally, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper mine port inventories are increasing, and domestic smelters' production is stable. The supply is slightly increasing due to sufficient domestic raw material supply and favorable copper prices. However, downstream consumption has limited room for improvement as copper prices are high, copper product processing plants have fewer new orders and lower operating rates, and buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may see a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,507 dollars/ton, down 26.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 153,061 lots, down 10,259 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,104 lots, up 1,294 lots. The LME copper inventory is 168,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 31,754 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,085 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,165 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 93 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 165 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 14.01 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 292.44 million tons per month, up 53.13 million tons. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,800 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,500 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan per month, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan per month, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.97%, down 1.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.99%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.99%, down 0.0117%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.85, down 0.046 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at lower prices" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with the month - on - month decline widening to 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, supporting automobile and home appliance consumption, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing. In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of global automobile sales. Two Fed officials emphasized patience in adjusting policies. The ECB warned of a potential "fundamental institutional change" due to Trump's tariff policies. China supported 33 least - developed African countries in using the zero - tariff policy, and the import volume from these countries reached 21.42 billion dollars from December 1 last year to March this year, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand, with the industry inventory steadily decreasing. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 3,216 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 55 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was - 9 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 203,373 lots, up 3,149 lots; for alumina, it was 373,044 lots, up 16,037 lots [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 66,175 tons, down 2,025 tons; the total alumina inventory was 251,154 tons, down 19,011 tons [2]. - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,475.50 US dollars/ton, down 5.50 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 388,900 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 9,333 lots, down 8,189 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.16, up 0.03 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum warrants in the SHFE were 58,422 tons, down 1,099 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory in the SHFE was 156,080 tons, down 13,585 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of A00 aluminum from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 20,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of alumina from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The aluminum premium/discount of Shanghai Material Trade was 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 20,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum premium/discount was 20,330 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of alumina was - 116 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73% [2]. - The alumina output was 732.30 tons, down 15.22 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74% [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 tons, down 30.02 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 tons, down 13.48 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume was 26.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 tons, down 0.05 tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 29.51 tons, up 33.55 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 55.50 tons, up 0.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. - The primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10% [2]. - The aluminum product output was 576.40 tons, down 21.77 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 tons, up 1.00 tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy output was 152.80 tons, down 12.70 tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 tons, down 0.16 tons [2]. - The automobile output was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.42%, down 0.35%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.15% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.49%, down 0.0021; the option call - put ratio was 0.83, up 0.0246 [2]. Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at a lower price" was still the mainstream. The average price of second - hand houses in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with a month - on - month decline [2]. - Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, promoting automobile consumption, and implementing home appliance replacement subsidies [2]. - In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of the global automobile sales in the first quarter [2]. - Two Fed officials emphasized that the Fed could be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies [2]. - The European Central Bank warned that after Trump introduced tariff policies, investors were moving away from traditional safe - haven assets such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [2]. - China supported 33 least - developed African countries to make full use of the zero - tariff policy for 100% of tariff items. From December 1 last year to March this year, China's imports from the least - developed African countries reached 21.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2]. Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply - side situation improved as some domestic smelters carried out maintenance and production reduction operations, and traders had a sentiment of holding prices. The demand was relatively stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approaching the upper limit [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main Shanghai aluminum futures contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing position volume, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply was relatively stable as the new production capacity increment was small and the operating capacity was approaching the ceiling. The demand showed a slight increase overall, with domestic downstream processing shifting from peak to off - peak season and some export - related demand improvement due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and S&P 500 up 0.41%, while Nasdaq fell 0.18% [2] - Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.37%, and Alibaba's stock dropping 7.53% due to disappointing revenue [3] Group 2: Company Earnings - Alibaba reported Q4 revenue of 236.45 billion yuan, a 7% year-over-year increase, but below the expected 237.91 billion yuan; Alibaba Cloud revenue reached 30.127 billion yuan, up 18% [3] - NetEase's Q1 revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, a 7.4% increase year-over-year, with gaming revenue up 12.1% to 24 billion yuan, while other segments saw declines [3] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, rebounding from a low of 3,120.2 USD/oz to over 3,240 USD/oz, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [4] - A report indicated that gold's political safe-haven attribute is currently the primary driver of price changes, with its monetary and financial attributes being secondary [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy - The US PPI data showed a 0.5% month-over-month decline, indicating significant impacts from rising tariffs on businesses [5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced adjustments to the policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks, with results expected by August or September [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Alibaba's financial results, highlighting a slight miss in revenue expectations while showing strong growth in net profit and shareholder returns. Additionally, it covers the broader market context, including U.S. stock index declines and economic indicators. Financial Performance of Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was 236.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below the market expectation of 237.91 billion RMB [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 29.85 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%, surpassing the forecast of 29.39 billion RMB [2][3] - The company announced a dividend distribution of 460 million USD (approximately 3.31 billion RMB) to enhance shareholder returns [3] - Alibaba's share buyback program for the fiscal year 2025 involved repurchasing 11.97 million shares for 1.19 billion USD, marking it as one of the most aggressive buyback programs among Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [3] Market Context - On May 15, U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down by 116.16 points (-0.28%), Nasdaq down by 132.45 points (-0.69%), and S&P 500 down by 15.32 points (-0.26%) [2] - International oil prices fell, with NYMEX WTI crude down by 2.6% to 61.51 USD per barrel, and ICE Brent crude down by 2.54% to 64.41 USD per barrel [5] - Recent economic data indicated that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, slightly above expectations, while April retail sales showed a marginal increase of 0.1% [5]

Core Points - The US dollar declined on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains due to inflation data falling below market expectations [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with March CPI showing a decrease of 0.1% [3][6] - Despite lower inflation data, tariffs have increased the cost of imported goods, suggesting potential inflation rise in the coming months [1][3] Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.67% to 101.05, reflecting market reactions to the inflation data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [3][5] - The decline in the dollar index indicates a short-term adjustment in the market's perception of the dollar's strength [5] Currency Movements - The euro appreciated by 0.81% against the dollar, reaching 1.1177, partly due to the dollar's decline and optimistic market sentiment regarding the European economy [4] - The British pound rose by 0.95% to 1.3297, marking the largest single-day increase since April 28, driven by the dollar's retreat and positive outlook on the UK economy [7] Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Easing trade tensions have led to reduced recession forecasts among major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, impacting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - The market now anticipates that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until September, with a projected reduction of at least 25 basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation being threatened by the Trump administration's tariff policies, leading to a dilemma where any monetary policy action may be deemed "too late" [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - Historically, Federal Reserve leaders have been criticized for their indecisiveness in adjusting interest rates, often acting too late in response to economic signals [2] - Examples include Arthur Burns in the 1970s failing to tighten monetary policy during stagflation, Alan Greenspan's delayed response to the internet bubble, and Ben Bernanke's underestimation of the subprime mortgage crisis [2] - Dan North highlights that the Fed tends to wait for overwhelming data before acting, which often results in delayed responses that lead to economic downturns [2][3] Group 2: Current Economic Environment - Powell's current predicament is exacerbated by tariffs that exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, constraining the Fed's policy options [2][3] - Trump has been urging the Fed to lower interest rates, claiming that inflation has been defeated, despite the Fed's decision to maintain rates [4][5] - Recent economic data has not shown significant price increases or a marked slowdown in economic activity, but there are growing concerns among businesses regarding the impact of tariffs [5] Group 3: Labor Market Indicators - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, suggesting that if the Fed relies on labor market performance for policy adjustments, it may act too late [5][6] - Joseph LaVorgna points out that waiting for labor market confirmation could mean the Fed is already behind the curve [6] - Powell's previous reluctance to raise rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 has led to a series of aggressive rate hikes that have yet to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic suggests that it is unwise to adjust monetary policy at this time due to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies, which have led to an economic "stall" [1] Economic Impact - Bostic indicates that the uncertainties have resulted in households and businesses refraining from making significant investments [1] - He emphasizes that the specific economic outcome largely depends on the details of policy implementation, highlighting the current lack of clarity [1] Policy Recommendations - Bostic advises the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and refrain from making bold policy moves until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic suggests that adjusting policies amid increasing uncertainty is not wise [1] Group 1 - Bostic emphasizes the importance of maintaining a steady approach in the face of economic unpredictability [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty, which complicates decision-making for monetary policy [1] - Bostic's comments reflect a cautious stance on potential policy changes, indicating a preference for stability over rapid adjustments [1]

二、现货方面 撰写品种：沪银 撰写时间：2025/05/06 回顾周期：日度 沪银日度报告 一、盘面情况 沪银主力合约今日波动不大，开盘价为 8156 元/千克，最高价是 8280 元/千克，收盘价是 8235 元/千克。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、甄别 和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内容及 最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担 任何责任。 今日现货白银价格为 33.058 美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨 0.554 美 元，涨幅 1.70%。 三、宏观分析 美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，陷入负增长；4 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI48.7，略高于预期但较前值小幅回落，仍处于收缩区间。四 月美国非农就业人数微降至 17.7 万人，好于此前预期，四月美国失业率持 平于 4.2%。关注中美经济数据及关税谈判进展。 四 ...

金丰来认为，尽管市场在短期内可能会出现波动，但从长期来看，投资者应关注防御性板块和避险资产。黄金作为一种避险资产，其价格 在近期创下新高，显示出市场对避险需求的增加。此外，金丰来建议投资者关注那些受贸易政策影响较小的行业，如公用事业和医疗保健 等防御性板块。 金丰来总结认为，当前市场的不确定性主要来源于贸易政策和美联储的政策调整。投资者在当前环境下应保持谨慎，关注市场动态，合理 调整投资组合，以应对可能出现的市场波动。 金丰来认为，贸易政策的不确定性对市场产生了显著影响。特别是关税政策的调整，使得市场参与者对经济增长前景感到担忧。这种不确 定性不仅影响了股票市场，还导致美元汇率波动，投资者纷纷寻求避险资产。例如，近期亚洲股市在美联储主席鲍威尔警告经济增长放缓 和通胀上升风险后出现波动。市场对美国贸易政策的不确定性保持高度关注，这使得投资者在决策时更加谨慎。 金丰来进一步分析，美联储的政策调整也对市场产生了重要影响。鲍威尔表示，美联储将等待更多经济数据来决定是否调整利率。这种谨 慎态度反映了美联储在应对潜在经济疲软和通胀压力之间的平衡难题。市场分析人士认为，美联储目前处于两难境地，因为关税政策可能 导致通胀上升 ...