中辉期货双焦周报 供应偏紧预期仍在，谨慎看空对待 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/11/14 双焦观点摘要 【后市展望】：综合来看，国内焦煤供应偏紧格局尚未被打破，需求仍需关注后续铁水产量的下降幅度。当 前仍处政策空窗期，从市场情绪来看，本周焦煤主力合约继续减仓5.2万手，市场观望情绪进一步增加。策略 上短期建议离场观望为宜，或短空参与。焦煤主力合约参考区间【1150，1230】，焦炭主力合约参考区间 【1630，1710】。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提涨、铁水产量下行等。 2 【市场概况】：本周黑色系商品价格表现继续分化，煤焦价格大幅下跌，螺矿表现相对坚挺。本周二发改委 部署供暖季能源保供工作，会议要求从稳定生产、保障合同履约、应对用能高峰、保障民生采暖、提升灾害应 对及安全生产六方面做实做细，确保群众温暖过冬。从供需层面来看，近期国内煤矿产量环比小幅回升，但仍 处同期低位水平。部分煤矿因搬迁工作面、检查等因素供应恢复缓慢。下游方面，铁水产量环比回升，钢 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The daily view of thermal coal spot is to maintain a mid - term view of "oscillation". It is expected that thermal coal will start to operate in a high - level oscillation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - As of November 13th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4092 billion tons, with a weekly cumulative inventory of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 324,400 tons [4] - Due to the approaching peak winter, low coal inventory in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, which cooled the market sentiment [4]

Core Insights - The arrival of the "MARAN GAS CORONIS" marks the first LNG vessel to dock at Yangjiang Port, enhancing the energy transportation hub function in the western Guangdong region [1] - The Yangjiang LNG terminal is a key facility for the LNG peak-shaving storage project, with a design capacity of 2.1 million tons per year in the short term and up to 6 million tons per year in the long term [1] - The LNG delivered will support the winter energy demand in South China, indicating the strategic importance of the terminal for regional energy supply [1] Summary by Sections LNG Terminal Development - The Yangjiang LNG terminal is located in the Yangjiang High-tech Zone and features a dedicated berth for LNG with a capacity of 175,000 cubic meters [1] - The terminal's opening is significant for improving the regional energy layout and serves as an important LNG receiving and refueling base for western Guangdong [1] Maritime Safety and Operations - Yangjiang maritime authorities ensured safe and efficient docking through comprehensive preparations, including channel clearance and traffic control [2] - The maritime department conducted safety inspections and coordinated with the ship and terminal operators to establish docking plans and emergency procedures [2] - Real-time monitoring and coordination were implemented during the docking process to maintain communication among all parties involved [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the measures taken by the Chinese government and energy companies to ensure energy supply during the upcoming winter season, particularly in the face of a cold wave and increased heating demand. Group 1: Energy Supply Measures - The National Energy Administration has proactively arranged for sufficient coal and natural gas supply, optimized electricity dispatch to prioritize residential heating and key industrial production, and enhanced the efficiency of renewable energy utilization [1][10]. - The State Grid has completed 113 new 500 kV and above power grid infrastructure projects this year, improving cross-regional transmission capacity to support winter peak electricity demand [5][10]. Group 2: Coal and Electricity Supply Stability - National coal daily dispatch production has maintained a high level of over 12.3 million tons since October, with coal stockpiles at power plants sufficient for 35 days as of November 11 [5][10]. - The article highlights the importance of coal as a stabilizing force in the energy supply system, with various regions ensuring efficient coal transportation and market regulation to prevent price fluctuations [5][10]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The integration of new technologies such as smart sensing and artificial intelligence is enhancing the efficiency and reliability of the energy supply system, with proactive repair models being implemented to minimize power outages during the heating season [6][7]. - The development of renewable energy projects, such as the integration of wind and solar power, is contributing to a cleaner energy supply, with renewable energy generation reaching 2.89 trillion kWh in the first three quarters of the year, a 15.5% increase year-on-year [8][9]. Group 4: Multi-Energy Coordination - The article emphasizes the coordinated efforts across various energy sectors, including oil and gas, to ensure stable resource supply for both residential heating and industrial production [10][12]. - The establishment of a multi-energy supply system is seen as crucial for maintaining energy security, with a focus on intelligent scheduling and green low-carbon development [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commencement of winter heating in northern China and the proactive measures taken by major energy companies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), to ensure energy supply during the winter season [1] Group 1: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - CNPC has fully activated its winter supply mode, aiming to meet the natural gas demand during the winter heating season [3] - In November, CNPC has been supplying an average of nearly 700 million cubic meters of natural gas daily, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, with a peak supply of 735 million cubic meters [3] - The company has arranged for seven gas storage facilities to extract gas, with a daily extraction capacity of nearly 20 million cubic meters [3] - For the winter heating season, CNPC plans to increase natural gas supply resources by 3.7% year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of the domestic supply [3] - The Longqing Oilfield, CNPC's largest natural gas production base, has increased its daily natural gas output to 135 million cubic meters, up by over 3 million cubic meters since the beginning of the month [5] - CNPC's various oil and gas fields are accelerating production to meet the peak gas demand, with significant contributions from fields like the Southwest Oil and Gas Field and Daqing [5] Group 2: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec has launched geothermal heating services across 11 provinces and municipalities, covering over 70 cities and counties, providing clean heating for more than 1.2 million households [6] - The geothermal heating capacity has reached a historical high of 12.6 million square meters, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 6.2 million tons annually [6]

Energy Supply and Demand Overview - The overall energy supply and demand situation is being assessed as the peak winter season approaches in 2025 [1] - Key resources such as natural gas and coal are being prepared for supply [1] Natural Gas Supply - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has entered the natural gas winter supply phase, with resources from various oil and gas fields being allocated nationwide, ensuring overall supply security for this winter and spring [3] - The largest gas storage facility, the Huitu Bih Gas Storage in Xinjiang, has injected over 5 million cubic meters of natural gas into the pipeline, while the Tarim Oilfield's Keriya Gas Storage has surpassed 200 million cubic meters, supporting gas demand in southern Xinjiang [5] - CNPC is maximizing production from oil and gas fields and coordinating natural gas imports, achieving a peak daily supply of 738 million cubic meters as of November 11, with seven gas storage facilities operational to ensure heating in northern regions [7] Coal Supply - The China Electricity Council indicates that the coal supply and demand are currently balanced, creating favorable conditions for electricity supply during the winter peak [9] - The National Energy Administration is urging coal-producing provinces and companies to accelerate the construction of coal reserve projects to enhance emergency supply capabilities [10] - Since October, the national average daily coal production has remained above 12.3 million tons, with power plants holding 227 million tons of coal as of November 11, sufficient for 35 days of use [10] Electricity Supply and Demand - The China Electricity Council forecasts a generally balanced electricity supply and demand during the winter peak, although some regions, particularly in North and East China, may experience tighter supply during peak periods [12]

大众网记者 赵港宁 济南报道 11月15日，济南正式进入采暖季，国家发展改革委近期部署供暖季能源保供工作，强调要重点保障民生 采暖用能，把保供工作做实做细。国网山东省电力公司积极落实这一要求，为济南能源集团"聊热入 济"、长清电厂配套输电通道、2×66万千瓦超超临界机组等重点工程提供精准服务与专业支撑，以可靠 电力为项目破局提速，筑牢泉城民生供暖与能源安全屏障。 电力护航民生线 "聊热入济"暖泉城 从线路设计到施工协调，电力各部门全程靠前服务。"遇到跨区域难题，他们总能第一时间对接解决， 让工程得以顺利推进。"目前关键段出线贯通正全力开展，该负责人表示："有这样的保障，我们对后续 机组满负荷运行充满信心，必将更好满足西部城区民生用能需求。" 后续，济南热电集团将持续深化与电力部门的对接，加快推进剩余线路建设，确保机组电力稳定外送， 为采暖季济南中西部电网保障及中心城区无煤化战略提供坚实支撑。 电力部门深入落实国家发展改革委保供要求，将民生需求贯穿始终，为这一跨区域供暖骨干工程提供全 链条保障。 "'聊热入济'采暖季前实现首次达产，1亿平方米供热面积的背后，是电力保障的硬核支撑。"济南能源 集团所属济南热力集团 ...

煤炭是能源保供的压舱石。张燕秦介绍，今年前三季度，全国规上原煤产量35.7亿吨，同比增长 2%；10月份以来，全国煤炭日均调度产量持续处于1200万吨以上的较高水平。从当前情况看，今年迎 峰度冬煤炭供应基础坚实可靠。 据了解，迎峰度冬期间，国家能源局将持续跟踪煤炭生产、进口、需求等重点指标变化趋势，会同 有关方面全力做好迎峰度冬煤炭保供相关工作。一是着力做好重点地区电煤保供。督促蒙东地区全力做 好东北电煤供应，指导两湖一江、西南等地区与重点产煤省区沟通对接，压实电厂等用煤企业储煤责 任，拓宽省外煤采购渠道，切实保障电煤需求。二是分析研判迎峰度冬期间可能影响煤炭供应的不利因 素，提前做好寒潮、大风等极端灾害天气的应对措施，避免产量大幅波动。三是指导督促有关产煤省 （区）和煤炭企业加快产能储备煤矿项目建设，不断提升煤炭应急保障能力。 天然气方面，供需总体保持平稳，形势稳中向好。张燕秦说，国产气将实现连续9年稳定增产超百 亿立方米，陆上进口管道气稳定增长，西气东输三线中段、西气东输四线以及川气东送二线四川资源上 载段均按期建成投产，"全国一张网"灵活调节和尖峰保供能力进一步增强；地下储气库超额完成年度注 气任务，满 ...

据了解，迎峰度冬期间，国家能源局将持续跟踪煤炭生产、进口、需求等重点指标变化趋势，会同有关 方面全力做好迎峰度冬煤炭保供相关工作。一是着力做好重点地区电煤保供。督促蒙东地区全力做好东 北电煤供应，指导两湖一江、西南等地区与重点产煤省区沟通对接，压实电厂等用煤企业储煤责任，拓 宽省外煤采购渠道，切实保障电煤需求。二是分析研判迎峰度冬期间可能影响煤炭供应的不利因素，提 前做好寒潮、大风等极端灾害天气的应对措施，避免产量大幅波动。三是指导督促有关产煤省（区）和 煤炭企业加快产能储备煤矿项目建设，不断提升煤炭应急保障能力。 天然气方面，供需总体保持平稳，形势稳中向好。张燕秦说，国产气将实现连续9年稳定增产超百亿立 方米，陆上进口管道气稳定增长，西气东输三线中段、西气东输四线以及川气东送二线四川资源上载段 均按期建成投产，"全国一张网"灵活调节和尖峰保供能力进一步增强；地下储气库超额完成年度注气任 务，满库入冬，天然气储备和顶峰保供能力逐步提升，产供储销体系更加完善。今年采暖季，天然气供 应总量和尖峰用气总体有保障。 燃料供应是电力保供的物质基础。我国将加快推动地方各类支撑性电源建设投产，提升电力系统灵活调 节能力。加 ...

Report Summary - As of November 11, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects decreased by 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, while that of housing construction projects increased by 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, including coal production, transportation, and power generation, and ensuring the fulfillment of medium - and long - term energy contracts [5]. - Domestic coking coal supply increased slightly, with low inventory pressure. Independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory slightly, and steel mills maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production was weakly stable, iron - water production increased, and coke consumption rose. The fourth round of price increase for coke was partially implemented, but the implementation time was postponed [5]. - This week, the double - coke futures market fluctuated weakly. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [5]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Low inventory pressure of coking coal [8] - Strong performance of thermal coal prices [8] Bearish Factors - Slowdown in China's economic data growth in October [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission's winter energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of coal supply [8] Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [13]. Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.28%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52%, and the daily average output was 757,400 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the daily average output was 274,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. As of the week of November 8, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.6506 million tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons; the coking coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 3.0082 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.985 million tons, a decrease of 57,700 tons [17]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 10.6897 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.11 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 581,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [20]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9017 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [24]. Coke Production and Consumption - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 71.64%, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.14%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 461,700 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [26]. - As of the week of November 14, China's coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was 236,880 tons, an increase of 26,600 tons [28]. Coke Price Increase - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 34 yuan/ton, and the loss increased. The fourth round of price increase was gradually implemented. As of November 14, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a further decrease of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills postponed the implementation of the price increase, limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises [30]. Basis Structure of Double - Coke Futures and Spot - The spot prices of double - coke were firm, while the futures expectations weakened [32]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission's energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of a tight coal supply - demand pattern. Macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in economic growth, and the market still needs policy support. In the short term, the market lacks positive drivers and will maintain a volatile trend, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [34]. - This week, the increase in hot - metal production drove up coke consumption. The increase in the average loss per ton of coke promoted the implementation of the fourth round of price increase. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, postponing the implementation of the price increase and limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises. The futures market followed the fluctuations of coking coal [37]