12月23日，2026年全国煤炭产运需衔接大会在河北邯郸隆重召开。大会由全国煤炭交易中心、邯郸市人 民政府联合主办，以"促进全国煤炭产运需企业高效衔接，搭建多方需求平台，为煤炭供应链'十五 五'良好开局夯实基础"为主题，汇聚国家相关部委、国铁集团、地方政府及煤炭、电力、港口、物流等 领域近千名代表，共商能源保供与行业高质量发展大计。 大会正式发布国铁全煤直达动力煤价格指数，该指数依托全国煤炭交易平台真实交易数据，整合16个铁 路局、470家样本煤矿权威信息，聚焦晋陕蒙核心产区、涵盖七大规格品类，已纳入2026年电煤保供中 长期合同定价参考体系，将为市场提供精准价格风向标。 河北省委常委、常务副省长赵辰昕，国铁集团党组成员、副总经理狄威，国家发展改革委运行局副局长 刘逆等领导出席并致辞或讲话。河北省邯郸市市长樊成华代表承办地回顾了大会连续在邯郸举办的合作 历程，并介绍了当地服务能源产业发展的区位与产业优势。 赵辰昕指出，河北作为"北煤南运、西煤东运"核心枢纽，将持续保障能源运输通道畅通，愿以煤为媒深 化多方合作，为行业发展提供河北机遇。 刘逆表示，煤炭行业需统筹能源安全与绿色转型，在筑牢保供底线的同时深化全产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stability of winter energy supply is crucial for the smooth development of the economy and society, with coal being the primary energy source in China, ensuring sufficient supply is essential for residential heating and industrial production [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Supply Measures - Various regions are implementing energy supply assurance measures to increase production, ensure transportation, and optimize scheduling to enhance energy supply capabilities [1]. - In November, national railways delivered a total of 184 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with thermal coal accounting for 128 million tons [1]. - By the end of November, coal stockpiles at power plants reached 88.23 million tons, with a consumption duration of 35.8 days, an increase of one day compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Multi-Modal Transportation and Renewable Energy - In Xinjiang, a multi-modal transportation system has been established, with coal exports expected to reach 10 million tons, a 10% increase year-on-year [2]. - The Daqin Railway in Shanxi is undergoing capacity expansion and integrating AI technology, maintaining a daily transport volume of 1.3 million tons since November [2]. - Renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar, are increasingly contributing to winter energy supply, with renewable energy installations reaching 332 million kilowatts in the first ten months of 2025, accounting for nearly 60% of total installed capacity [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements in Energy Management - The integration of AI, big data, and digital twin technologies is enhancing the complexity and reliability of the power system, allowing for more precise and rapid adjustments [3]. - Smart inspection technologies, such as drones and robots, are being utilized for efficient monitoring and fault detection in power grids [3]. Group 4: Recommendations for Energy Stability - To ensure energy stability, it is recommended to increase coal supply, promote flexibility in coal power, and accelerate the construction of pumped storage and new energy storage systems [4]. - Upgrading the distribution network and building ultra-high voltage transmission networks are essential for transporting clean energy from the northwest to the eastern regions [4]. - Encouraging demand-side flexibility through pricing mechanisms and enhancing digital capabilities for better forecasting and scheduling are also suggested [4].

Core Viewpoint - The energy supply situation in China is stable, with sufficient resources to meet the demands of winter heating and power generation, supported by both traditional and clean energy sources [1][2][3] Traditional Energy Supply - Coal remains a critical component of China's energy security, with daily coal production reaching 75,000 tons and a maximum coal stockpile exceeding 350,000 tons, ensuring supply stability during extreme winter weather [1] - The National Energy Group has implemented an emergency supply mechanism, delivering over 11 million tons of coal and generating over 21 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity since December [2] Clean Energy Projects - Significant clean energy projects are being launched, including the 800 MW offshore wind project in Jiangsu, which is expected to power 1.4 million households and reduce carbon emissions by approximately 2.37 million tons [2] - The successful grid connection of the second unit of the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Plant marks a milestone in nuclear energy development, contributing to the overall energy supply [3] Power Grid Enhancements - The completion of the ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project in Hubei will enable the transmission of approximately 40 billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually, equivalent to replacing 12 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon emissions by 30 million tons [3] - The State Grid has 82 key projects aimed at enhancing power supply capacity by over 30 million kilowatts, ensuring reliable electricity supply during peak winter demand [4] Resilience in Power Supply - To improve the resilience of the power supply system, it is essential to enhance the accuracy of renewable energy forecasting, apply digital technologies across various sectors, and optimize the efficiency of UHV transmission channels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaged in ensuring natural gas supply during the winter peak demand period, emphasizing safety and efficiency in operations to support the local community and economy [1][4]. Group 1: Operational Performance - The Jiangjin operation area has uploaded a total of 190 million standard cubic meters of natural gas and downloaded 2.7 million standard cubic meters since mid-November, with compressor units operating safely for 552 hours [2]. - The operation area has implemented a dual prevention mechanism to enhance safety measures, ensuring comprehensive risk control and timely resolution of identified hazards [2]. Group 2: Technological Integration - The operation area has strengthened communication with upstream and downstream units and the national dispatch center to ensure stable gas supply and safe transportation [3]. - Advanced technologies such as drone inspections, intelligent video monitoring, and fiber optic early warning systems have been integrated to enhance monitoring efficiency and ensure all-weather coverage of pipeline inspections [3]. Group 3: Social Responsibility - The company is committed to social responsibility by conducting safety knowledge campaigns in local communities and schools, promoting safe winter gas usage and pipeline protection [4]. - The operation area aims to maintain high standards in energy supply responsibilities, ensuring safe and efficient delivery of natural gas to support the community during winter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector has demonstrated strong resilience and effectiveness in ensuring energy supply during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding the 20% target, supporting stable economic growth [2] Performance Highlights - Electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, with July and August seeing continuous monthly consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a global first [3] - Oil and gas production reached historical highs, with crude oil production at approximately 215 million tons and natural gas production exceeding 260 billion cubic meters, maintaining an annual increase of over 10 billion cubic meters for nine consecutive years [3] - The national electricity supply remains secure and stable, with significant improvements in oil and gas exploration and development, and an increase in energy resource complementarity [3] - The energy self-sufficiency rate increased from around 80% to over 84%, establishing the world's largest renewable energy system [3] Green Transition - The pace of green and low-carbon transformation in the energy sector is accelerating, with significant developments in renewable energy, including the completion of the first batch of wind and solar power bases and the construction of approximately 50 million kilowatts in the second and third batches [3] - By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to reach 25%, with renewable energy generation capacity exceeding 50% [5] Infrastructure Development - Major hydropower and nuclear power projects are advancing, with national hydropower installed capacity exceeding 440 million kilowatts and 10 new nuclear power units approved for construction [4] - The construction of a unified national electricity market has made significant progress, with 28 provinces engaging in electricity spot trading, and market-based electricity transactions expected to reach 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [4] Innovation and Future Outlook - The integration of energy and artificial intelligence is rapidly developing, with new energy storage installations surpassing 100 million kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global total [7] - The government is promoting the development of hydrogen energy and green fuels, with plans to establish a hydrogen energy industry development implementation plan and support various projects in the energy sector [7]

Group 1 - The 2026 National Energy Work Conference highlighted that 2025 was the best year for energy security and supply since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with coal production and supply being effectively stabilized [1] - In 2025, China's raw coal production exceeded 4.8 billion tons, with imports around 470 million tons, and a reserve capacity of over 90 million tons was established [1] - The total electricity consumption in 2025 surpassed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a significant increase in energy demand due to economic and social development [1] Group 2 - The "Seven-Year Action Plan" for increasing oil and gas reserves and production concluded successfully, with crude oil production reaching approximately 215 million tons and natural gas production exceeding 260 billion cubic meters in 2025 [1] - The national capacity for electricity transmission from west to east reached 340 million kilowatts, and the total length of long-distance oil and gas pipelines reached 200,000 kilometers [2] Group 3 - The share of non-fossil energy consumption is expected to exceed the 20% target, with energy investment projected to reach 3.54 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11% [3] - New energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, are expected to see significant growth, with an estimated 370 million kilowatts of new installations in 2025 [3] - The construction of major hydropower and nuclear power projects is accelerating, with total hydropower installed capacity exceeding 440 million kilowatts [3] Group 4 - Significant progress has been made in building a unified national electricity market, with 28 provinces participating in electricity spot trading, and the market transaction volume expected to reach 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025 [4] - The market-based trading volume is projected to account for 64% of total electricity consumption, indicating a growing trend towards marketization in the energy sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The successful operation of the 750 kV transmission project of the Xiwangzhai coal-electricity integration project enhances energy supply and efficiency in the Shaanxi region, supporting regional economic development and sustainable energy utilization [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The 750 kV transmission project consists of two segments: one from Xiwangzhai Power Plant to Qingshuichuan Power Plant, and the other from Xiwangzhai Power Plant to the ±800 kV Shanbei converter station [1]. - The project includes the construction of 130 new transmission towers over a total length of 63.422 kilometers, serving as a crucial power source for the Shaanxi-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC transmission project [1]. Group 2: Operational Impact - The project alleviates output limitations for the second and third phases of the Qingshuichuan Power Plant, releasing 800 MW of capacity and expected to generate an additional 10 billion kWh of electricity annually [2]. - It enhances the overall transmission efficiency of the Shaanxi-Hubei ±800 kV UHVDC project, contributing to regional energy supply stability, promoting renewable energy consumption, and optimizing energy resource allocation [2].

能源是现代化的重要基础和动力。记者从国家能源局获悉：今年能源保供成效是"十四五"以来最好的一 年，非化石能源消费比重将超额完成20%的目标任务，能源行业在防范应对各种冲击挑战中展现出强大 韧性，有力支撑经济总体平稳、稳中有进。 看成绩—— 油、气产量双创历史新高，新能源实现更高质量跃升式发展 能源安全保障方面，今年有几组数据值得关注—— 全社会用电量预计首超10万亿千瓦时。7月、8月我国全社会用电量连续超过1万亿千瓦时，在全球尚属 首次，我国有力有效应对迎峰度夏电力负荷20次超去年峰值考验； 油、气产量双创历史新高，原油产量约2.15亿吨，天然气产量突破2600亿立方米、连续9年增产超百亿 立方米，油气增储上产"七年行动计划"胜利收官； 西电东送能力达到3.4亿千瓦，长输油气管道里程达到20万公里，煤炭主要产区外运量超19亿吨。 总的来看，全国电力供应保持安全稳定，油气勘探开发力度大幅提升，能源资源互补互济水平持续提 升，能源安全保障有力有效。"十四五"时期，我国能源自给率从80%左右增至84%以上，煤炭、电力保 供水平世界一流，建成全球最大的可再生能源体系，能源体量规模稳居世界第一。 能源绿色低碳转型步伐也 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Hubei Energy with a target price of 5.70 CNY, while the current price is 4.59 CNY [6][20]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's performance recovery due to significantly improved water inflow and the expected contribution from new thermal power units. Additionally, the company is entering a stable operational phase, which is likely to enhance dividends [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 18,669 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 20,031 million CNY in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 18,919 million CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 20,248 million CNY in 2026 and 20,333 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,749 million CNY in 2023 to 2,707 million CNY in 2025, before slightly declining to 2,403 million CNY in 2026 and recovering to 2,454 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.25 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.38 CNY in 2025, and then slightly declining to 0.34 CNY in 2026 and 0.35 CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - Hubei Energy is a regional comprehensive energy generation enterprise under the Three Gorges Group, focusing on energy supply across multiple sectors including hydropower, thermal power, new energy, natural gas, coal, and finance [22][25]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 18.33 million kW, with hydropower, thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic power capacities of 4.57 million kW, 6.63 million kW, 1.25 million kW, and 5.71 million kW respectively [22][30]. Performance Expectations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 27.1 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% due to improved water inflow and the commencement of new thermal power projects [12][20]. - The report anticipates that the company will realize net profits of 24.0 billion CNY and 24.5 billion CNY in 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][20]. Market Position - Hubei Energy is positioned as a leading energy operator in Hubei province, with significant investments in both traditional and renewable energy sectors, ensuring a diversified energy portfolio [22][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1 Coking Coal - In 2025, China's cumulative raw coal production from January to October was 3.97 billion tons, with coking coal production at about 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual production was high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to have a ceiling, with an estimated output of about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to October 2025, coking coal imports were 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. In 2026, imports are expected to rise slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal, while US coal imports may remain at 0 due to tariffs. The estimated import volume in 2026 is 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [3]. - In 2025, domestic coking coal consumption is expected to be about 597 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. In 2026, steel demand and supply are not expected to change significantly, and coking coal demand will lack drivers. The estimated consumption in 2026 is 595 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [3]. - In 2025, the coking coal inventory structure changed significantly. In the first half, inventory accumulated upstream, while in the second half, it shifted from upstream to mid - and downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. In 2026, coking coal consumption may not have strong drivers, domestic supply is expected to increase slightly, and the focus for imports is on the increase in Mongolian coal. The total supply is expected to increase by about 4 million tons, and the demand is difficult to absorb, resulting in a supply - demand surplus. However, supply policies will provide a bottom - support, and the price floor is expected to rise [3]. 2.2 Coke - From January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease by about 3 million tons, with a cumulative output of 494 million tons and an actual supply of 410 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [4]. - From January to October 2025, the average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year. In 2025, domestic coke consumption is expected to be about 399 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In 2026, steel supply and demand have no strong drivers, and pig iron production is expected to be flat year - on - year, so domestic coke consumption will remain at 399 million tons. In terms of exports, China's coke has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has an impact. In 2026, coke exports are estimated to drop to about 7.5 million tons [4]. - In 2025, the coke inventory structure was similar to that of coking coal. In the first half, coke enterprises had high inventory pressure, and in the second half, upstream inventory shifted downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern. In 2026, there will still be surplus pressure, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. Overall, coke prices mainly follow coking coal. In 2026, considering semi - coke and losses, the actual supply growth rate is expected to be about - 0.6%, and total demand will be flat or slightly lower than this year, still showing a supply - demand surplus. Future attention should be paid to changes in coal cost and macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Market Review - In 2025, the double - coking futures market fluctuated greatly. In the first quarter, the market expected an oversupply of domestic coal mines and weak demand, causing the futures price to decline. In the second quarter, macro - tariff shocks and the lack of production cuts by coal enterprises led to a bear - dominated market. In June, the market rebounded due to overcrowded short positions and low valuations. In July, the anti - involution policy was implemented, and coking coal prices strengthened significantly. From August to October, coking coal prices fluctuated widely at a high level under the support of over - production inspections. From November to December, the market weakened again due to an increase in Mongolian coal imports and early winter stockpiling [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Price - Coking coal spot prices first declined and then rose. In the first half, they declined in tandem with the futures market, bottomed out in late June, and rebounded in July. After September, the spot market tightened, and some coking coal varieties faced structural shortages. The strong thermal coal market also provided support, making the coking coal spot market firm [15]. - The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal fluctuated greatly throughout the year. It dropped to a low of 700 yuan/ton in the first half and then increased due to a decrease in its proportion in customs clearance, reaching a high of 1170 yuan/ton at the end of October. The long - term contract price in Q4 was 57.3 US dollars/ton, 3 US dollars higher than Q3, and is expected to increase slightly in Q1 2026. The price of imported seaborne coal fluctuated within a relatively small range, and it became cost - effective after the domestic coal price bottomed out in the middle of the year [22]. 3.2.2 Policy and Market Impact - In July 2025, the National Energy Administration launched over - production inspections, which made the market shift its expectation of coal supply to "over - production inspection." Coking coal became a benchmark for the "anti - involution" of the black industry, and actual production shrank in the second half of the year. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, and the policy focus was adjusted temporarily. In the long term, "anti - involution + over - production inspection" will continue to have an impact [23]. - In 2021, after coal prices reached a historical high, the profit of the black industry chain gradually shifted to raw materials, promoting investment and a new capacity - expansion cycle in the coal industry. In recent years, coal industry profits have declined year by year, and new capacity has decreased significantly compared with 2021 - 2023. Currently, the coal industry may be at the end of the capacity - expansion cycle [26]. - In June 2025, coal prices dropped below the cost. Some coal mines adopted a "quantity - for - price" strategy and even over - produced, disrupting the market order. The "over - production inspection" policy ended this vicious cycle and promoted the coal industry to control capacity and production, moving towards high - quality supply [30]. 3.2.3 Production - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, the production of above - scale industrial raw coal was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Production was high in the first half, but "anti - involution + over - production inspection" policies took effect in the second half, and production decreased year - on - year from July [31]. - By province, from January to October 2025, Shanxi's cumulative raw coal production was 1.08 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.9%, providing the largest increase in coal production this year. The production of Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Shaanxi increased steadily, while Inner Mongolia's production declined due to environmental protection and capacity integration. In 2026, Xinjiang may be the main area for production growth, and the growth rate of raw coal production may decline under the over - production inspection policy [34]. - Coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half of 2025. There were few supply disruptions from January to May, but production decreased in June due to factors such as work - face changes, maintenance, and full storage. After the over - production inspection in July, production remained low in the second half. In 2026, the impact of over - production inspection will be long - term, and domestic coking coal production has a ceiling, with limited growth compared to 2025 [41]. - Based on Fenwei's data, from January to October 2025, the cumulative production of coking clean coal was 397 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.16%. The annual output is expected to remain at the current level or decline slightly, with a year - on - year increase of about 3.8 million tons. In 2026, under the over - production inspection policy, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [46]. 3.2.4 Import - In the first three quarters of 2025, global coal production increased. China's production from Q1 - Q3 was 3.57 billion tons, ranking first with a stable year - on - year growth rate of 2%. India was the second - largest coal - producing country with high - speed growth, while Indonesia actively reduced production, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.5% in the first three quarters [49]. - From January to October 2025, China imported 387.62 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. Coal imports decreased significantly this year, especially in the first half, due to the lack of cost - effectiveness of imported coal after price declines. In the second half, as domestic coal prices rebounded, import profits increased, and import volume recovered but remained lower than the previous year [57]. - From January to October 2025, coking coal imports totaled 94.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. "Mongolian coal + Russian coal" accounted for 78% of imports, while the proportion of seaborne coal decreased. Imports were low in the first half, mainly due to large decreases in Mongolian and US coal imports. In the second half, as domestic production decreased, Mongolian coal imports increased [61]. - In 2026, the main import growth is expected to come from Mongolian coal, with an estimated total import volume of 114 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [62]. - In 2025, Mongolian coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half. In the first half, customs clearance was significantly lower than last year due to high inventory and weak demand. In the second half, as domestic production decreased and demand recovered, customs clearance increased. In 2026, Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons, but the core factors affecting customs clearance are regulatory - area storage and terminal demand [63][66]. - In 2025, from January to October, Russian coal imports were 26.42 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Russian coal enterprises' losses increased, and coal production and exports declined, but metallurgical coal exports increased. India's imports of Russian coking coal increased, diverting some of China's imports. In 2025, Russian coal imports are expected to be 32 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons [71]. - In 2025, from January to April, US coal imports totaled 2.91 million tons. After May, imports dropped to 0 due to tariffs. In 2026, considering the un - lifted tariffs and poor cost - effectiveness, US coal imports are still difficult to resume. From January to October 2025, Canada coal imports were 9.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. Due to the significant decrease in US coal imports, Canada coal imports increased significantly. In 2025, Canada coal imports are expected to be about 11 million tons, and next year may remain flat or increase slightly [76]. - In 2025, from January to October, Australian coal imports were 6.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10%. In the first half, imported Australian coal lacked cost - effectiveness due to falling domestic coal prices. After July, import profit opportunities emerged, and imports recovered. In 2025, Australian coal imports are expected to be about 8 million tons. In 2026, considering the production increase plans of Australian coal enterprises, Australian coal imports may increase [77][82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory accumulated upstream, while downstream maintained low inventory. In the second half, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream, showing a de - stocking pattern throughout the year. The change in mid - stream inventory was one of the main reasons for the large market fluctuations this year. In 2025, coking coal winter stockpiling may be weak. Considering the growth potential of production and imports and limited demand changes, coking coal inventory may accumulate in 2026 [102]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Capacity and Production - The coke industry has a low industrial concentration and is mainly composed of private enterprises, so it is more likely to trigger "capacity reduction" during industry downturns. Currently, the total in - production coking capacity in China is about 567 million tons, with about 52.49 million tons of capacity from coke ovens with a carbonization chamber height of 4.3 meters or less (including heat - recovery coke ovens) and about 514.85 million tons of capacity from ovens with a height of 5.5 meters or more. Coke ovens with a height of 4.3 meters or less are expected to be phased out, mostly by 2026. Some small - scale coking enterprises with weak anti - cycle risk capabilities may also be cleared, and there is room for capacity reduction [112]. - As of the end of November 2025, 16.82 million tons of coking capacity were eliminated, and 15.77 million tons were newly added, resulting in a net elimination of 1.05 million tons. It is expected that in 2025, 16.82 million tons of capacity will be eliminated, and 21.5 million tons will be newly added, resulting in a net increase of 4.68 million tons. In 2025, capacity reduction mainly occurred in Shandong, while new capacity was concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi [115]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2025, China's cumulative coke production was 419 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. This year, coking enterprises had poor profitability but higher average profits than last year, with medium - to - high production levels. In 2026, considering the possible continued low profitability of coking enterprises and the lack of demand drivers, coke production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly [122]. 3.3.2 Export - From January to October 2025, China's total coke exports were 6.22 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 22%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, Japan, India, and Malaysia. China's coke still has a price advantage, but the increase in Indonesia's production and exports has impacted China's export market. In 2026, China's coke exports are estimated to be about 7.5 million tons [125]. 3.3.3 Inventory - In 2025, coke production - end inventory gradually decreased, while steel mills had sufficient inventory throughout the year [131]. 3.4 Demand - From January to October 2025, the real estate market continued to decline, with a 19.8% decrease in new housing starts and a 1.7% year - on - year decrease in fixed - asset investment. Infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1%, manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 14.7%. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. This year, the main story of steel demand was exports. In 2026, steel demand is expected to change little from this year, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas policies on direct and indirect exports [141]. - From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and hot metal production was mostly at a high level compared to the previous year. In 2026, steel supply and demand are not expected to change significantly, and pig iron production is expected to be similar to this year [144]. 3.5 Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Coking Coal - In 2026, coking coal production is expected to be about 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Imports are expected to recover slightly, mainly due to an increase in Mongolian coal