2025 10/4 1 国际宏观 市场回顾 美联储10月降息25个基点概率为97.8% 现货黄金升破4060美元/盎司 周一早盘美股股指期货全面反弹 加密货币市场回暖 机 构 观点 新 3 社 主管主办 上海診券系 (2)中国证券网 【国际宏观】 10月13日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2.2%，降息25个基点的概率为97.8%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为0%，累计降 息25个基点的概率为2.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为96.7%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普表示，若俄乌冲突无法解决，他可能会向乌克兰提供"战斧"导弹。 高盛:特朗普若表态愿意讨论健康议题, 民主党很可能会接受并同意至少短期重新 开放政府 -周前瞻 IMF和世界银行秋季年会将于北京时间 10月13日至18日召开 美股第三季度财报季将在本周拉开大幕 【市场回顾】 周一早盘，黄金继续上涨。伦敦现货黄金开盘后快速拉升，最高逼近4060.05美元/盎司，再创新高；COMEX黄金期货开盘后一路走高，一度上冲至4078.1 美元/盎司，离历史高点仅一步之遥。上周五，伦敦现货黄金收于4017美元/盎司 ...

As the third-quarter earnings season kicks into gear, Wall Street is watching for standout performances that could defy consensus expectations. Morgan Stanley has spotlighted a trio of overweight-rate... ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.31% this week, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones dropped by 0.65% and 0.15% respectively [1] - On Friday, U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P 500 gaining nearly 0.6%, driven by better-than-expected personal income and consumption data for August [2] - The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the core PCE remained unchanged at 0.2%, both meeting market expectations [4] Individual Stocks - Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged by 14.4% as reports emerged that the company is nearing a privatization deal valued at $50 billion, with investors including Silver Lake and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund [7] - PACCAR, a truck manufacturer, saw its stock rise by 5.1% following the announcement of new import tariffs affecting heavy trucks [6] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Oracle down 2.7%, Meta down 0.7%, and Apple down 0.5%, while Tesla rose by 4.0% [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.6% in August, indicating economic resilience [2][4] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down from 55.4 to 55.1 for September, reflecting concerns about economic conditions [5] - The market anticipates two 25 basis point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, despite internal disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation predictions [5]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the historical volatility of the S&P 500 index in October is approximately 20% higher than in other months since 1928 [1] - The increase in volatility during October is attributed to the focus on earnings reports, analyst activity days, and management guidance for the upcoming year [1] Summary by Category Historical Volatility - The S&P 500 index has experienced a 26% increase in realized volatility from August to October historically [1] - October typically sees the largest earnings day volatility of the year due to the upcoming earnings season [1] Upcoming Events - Over the next four months, more than 450 significant events are expected to drive substantial volatility in U.S., European, and Asian markets [1] - Notable events include Victoria's Secret fashion show in mid-October, LVMH's Dior show during Paris Fashion Week, Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, and corporate events from Hyatt Hotels, Home Depot, and Dollar Tree [1]

Core Insights - The trading volume surged on September 19, coinciding with the expiration of $5 trillion in options, marking one of the busiest trading days since 2008 [1] - Approximately 27.7 billion shares were traded across U.S. exchanges, making it the third busiest trading day recorded by Bloomberg [1] - As the earnings season approaches, there is an improved expectation for U.S. corporate profit growth, indicating that the current upward trend in the market may continue [1] - According to Bloomberg Industry Research, over 22% of companies in the S&P 500 that have issued third-quarter earnings guidance expect to exceed analyst expectations, the highest level in a year [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures were nearly flat on Monday morning, following a week of gains driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by approximately 13 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remained unchanged [2] - The three major stock indices have recorded gains for the second consecutive week, with the Dow up 1.7%, S&P 500 up 0.9%, and Nasdaq up 0.8% [2] Group 2 - Small-cap stocks performed notably well last week, with gains exceeding 3% as investors bet on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The S&P 500 equal-weighted consumer discretionary index reached an all-time high, suggesting that economic concerns related to tariffs may have been overstated [2] - Over 92% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings this quarter exceeded Wall Street expectations, with nearly 82% surpassing forecasts [3]

Group 1 - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching intraday historical highs before retreating [1][2] - AMD's stock surged over 4%, leading the technology sector, while Apple also experienced a rise of more than 1% [1][2] - The strong performance of the second quarter earnings season has been a driving factor for the market, showcasing corporate resilience amid various challenges [3] Group 2 - The market is increasingly speculating on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 99% probability for a rate cut in September [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen indicated the possibility of a series of consecutive rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September [4] - Chinese assets experienced a significant increase, with the Chinese concept stock index rising over 2% [5][7] Group 3 - Tencent's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) surged nearly 7%, with Q2 revenue growing 15% year-on-year to 184.5 billion RMB, exceeding analyst expectations [8] - The growth in Tencent's revenue was primarily driven by double-digit increases in most core businesses, including advertising, attributed to AI-driven optimizations [8] - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q2 increased to 19 billion RMB, but the company plans to invest wisely rather than making large-scale hires or marketing expenditures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a divergence in market behavior, where hedge funds are rapidly withdrawing from the U.S. stock market despite record corporate earnings and stock prices reaching new highs, indicating a potential structural change in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds have net sold U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in four months, with a sell-to-buy ratio of 3.5:1, totaling a net sell of $1 billion, primarily in macro products like indices and ETFs [2][5]. - The short positions in U.S. listed ETFs increased by 4%, with a monthly growth of 5.7%, reflecting a cautious outlook on the stock market [5]. - The technology sector has become a primary target for hedge fund shorting, with a sell-to-buy ratio of 3.9:1, marking the fastest net selling in over four months across all technology sub-sectors [7]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investor participation has decreased, with net purchases of $4.9 billion last week, below the year-to-date average of $6.6 billion and the past 12-month average of $5.6 billion [3][14]. - Retail investors continue to favor ETFs, with $4.7 billion in net purchases compared to $276 million in individual stocks, indicating a preference for broader market exposure [15]. - Specific ETFs like QQQ, SPY, and VOO saw significant net inflows, with QQQ leading at $724 million [16]. Group 3: Earnings Season Volatility - The current earnings season has exhibited unusually high volatility, with the average stock price movement for S&P 500 constituents reaching ±5.3%, the highest in 15 years [18][19]. - Approximately 60% of companies exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations by more than one standard deviation, yet this strong performance has not translated into sustained stock price increases, highlighting market sensitivity to valuations [19]. - Sector performance has been mixed, with technology stocks experiencing gains while consumer sectors showed weak price reactions regardless of earnings performance [20][21]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are expected to be focal points for market participants [22]. - The earnings season is nearing its end, with only 1% of S&P market cap companies yet to report, and implied volatility suggests a modest expected movement of ±1.25% for the S&P 500 this week [23].

Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds accelerated their net selling of U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in four months, with a sell-to-buy ratio of 3.5:1, contrasting with long-term investment funds that net bought $4 billion during the same period [1][2] - The net selling by hedge funds reached $1 billion, with over 90% concentrated in macro products (indices and ETFs), and short positions in U.S. listed ETFs increased by 4% [1][2] - Technology stocks became the primary target for hedge fund shorting, with a sell-to-buy ratio of 3.9:1, marking the fastest selling pace in over four months [4] Group 2: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors' participation declined, with net purchases of $4.9 billion, below the year-to-date average of $6.6 billion per week and the past 12-month average of $5.6 billion [7] - Retail investors favored ETFs with $4.7 billion in net purchases compared to individual stocks at $276 million, with large-cap ETFs receiving $2.2 billion in net inflows [9] - Nvidia, Amazon, and Palantir were the most favored individual stocks among retail investors, with net purchases of $453 million, $453 million, and $253 million respectively [10] Group 3: Earnings Season Volatility - The current earnings season has shown unusually high volatility, with average stock price fluctuations on earnings days reaching ±5.3%, the highest in 15 years [11] - 60% of companies exceeded EPS expectations by more than one standard deviation, while only 9% fell short, indicating a strong earnings performance that has not translated into sustained stock price increases [11] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data releases, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, as the earnings season nears its end [11]

Group 1 - The earnings season for Q2 is set to begin this week and will continue until the second week of August, with approximately 75% of S&P 500 companies expected to report their earnings [1] - So far, 34% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their performance, indicating a positive outlook for the earnings season [1] - Tesla reported disappointing results with a 14% year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries for Q2, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline, leading to a 16% drop in revenue from its automotive business [1] - Google's performance was strong, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, driven by robust earnings from YouTube ads and Google Cloud services [2] - Google's capital expenditure forecast for 2025 was raised to $85 billion, up from an earlier estimate of $75 billion, reflecting strong and sustained demand for cloud products and services [2] - The overall growth rate for Q2 earnings increased from 5.6% to 6.4%, with revenue growth rising from 4.4% to 5.1%, and 80% of S&P 500 companies exceeding revenue and profit expectations [2] Group 2 - This week, attention will shift to four other major tech giants: Meta and Microsoft will report on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon will follow on Thursday [3] - Research indicates that companies announcing earnings dates later than historical norms typically signal negative news, while earlier announcements may indicate positive outcomes [5] - Eight companies in the S&P 500 have confirmed "abnormal" earnings release dates, with four reporting earlier than usual, indicating a positive "date deviation factor" [5] - The peak of the earnings season is expected between July 28 and August 15, with over 2,000 companies anticipated to report each week, and August 7 projected to be the busiest day with 1,291 companies disclosing their results [5]