Group 1 - The financial markets have seen the worst of the tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, and mid-cap stocks are becoming attractive investment options as the outlook improves [1] - Fidelity's holdings in mid-cap stocks in Japan, Germany, and China account for approximately 11% of their growth and income funds, indicating high confidence in these trades [1] - The MSCI Japan mid-cap index has risen over 4% since April 2, while the German DAX mid-cap index has increased nearly 6%, and similar indices in China have seen a rise of about 0.5% during the same period [1] Group 2 - The fund management company has held some Chinese and Japanese stocks since the second half of last year and bought German mid-cap stocks shortly after the government announced a historic spending plan in March [2] - The German stock market is expected to rise due to the government's shift towards increased fiscal spending and reliance on domestic demand [3] - Japan is experiencing a significant transformation with "benign inflation" sweeping the economy, which may benefit mid-sized companies from domestic consumption growth [3] - Fidelity is optimistic about Chinese companies as further fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced, and the risk of losses is limited due to government-backed investors supporting stock prices [3]

Macro Commentary - The economic recovery in China remains unbalanced, with May data showing significant retail sales growth supported by the old-for-new policy, while real estate sales have declined further and industrial output growth has generally slowed [2] - GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.9% in Q2 and 4.7% in the second half of the year, potentially facing headwinds from weakening exports and diminishing effects of the old-for-new policy [2] - If a preliminary trade agreement is reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumer stimulation, and promoting capacity reduction in manufacturing [2] Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,061, up 0.70% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% to 6,033 [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.15% year-to-date, reflecting a strong performance in the technology sector [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong market was mixed, with financials and industrials leading gains, while real estate and healthcare sectors faced declines [4] Sector Analysis - The automotive sector is highlighted with companies like Geely Automobile and Xpeng Motors rated as "Buy," with target prices indicating potential upside of 46% and 50% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector also shows promise, with companies like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry rated as "Buy," suggesting potential price increases of 19% and 24% respectively [6] - In the consumer sector, Luckin Coffee and PepsiCo are rated as "Buy," with expected price increases of 15% and 61% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6] Credit and Economic Support - China's credit situation remains weak, driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand is still sluggish [5] - The social financing scale growth rate has rebounded due to accelerated government bond issuance, but household confidence is affected by tariff shocks, impacting housing and consumption [5] - More policy support is needed to revitalize private economic recovery, with expectations of a further 10 basis point reduction in LPR by the second half of 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoints - The current market lacks direction, but volatility in Q3 presents opportunities for allocation [1] - U.S. assets are not pessimistic, with potential for outperformance; U.S. stocks may provide buying opportunities upon correction [1][6] - The Chinese market focuses more on structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming A-shares [2][12] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, but Q3 is expected to remain chaotic, providing buying opportunities during volatility [6][9] - Tax cuts are expected to support consumer spending and stimulate corporate investment, with a projected deficit rate reduction in FY2025 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice to 3.75-4%, supporting real estate and traditional investments [7][9] Chinese Market Insights - The Chinese credit cycle is still in a contraction phase, with high costs suppressing private sector leverage [10][11] - Structural market conditions lead to "asset scarcity," with investors seeking stable returns or growth-oriented assets [11][12] - The focus on Hong Kong stocks reflects a preference for quality assets amid limited growth expectations in the broader market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung prioritizes economic revitalization, focusing on high-tech industries like AI and semiconductors to enhance competitiveness and create jobs [1][4]. Economic Policy and Market Response - Lee Jae-myung's administration aims to address multiple economic challenges, including regional development disparities and job creation [1][4]. - Following Lee's inauguration, the KOSPI index rose over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from April lows, nearing a bull market [1][8]. - The South Korean won appreciated by 1.50% against the US dollar, reaching a recent high of 1351.80 [1]. Political Stability and Governance - The end of political vacuum is expected to improve the political risk index in South Korea, with a current score of 18.85, down from over 20 [4][8]. - Lee's government is anticipated to have a stable political environment until at least the 2028 National Assembly elections, enhancing policy implementation capabilities [1][4]. Trade Relations and Tariff Negotiations - The new government is prioritizing tariff negotiations with the US, with a focus on reaching a comprehensive agreement by July 8 [5][6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is critical, as South Korea's exports to the US in sectors like automobiles and steel face significant tariffs [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Despite a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, market expectations for South Korea's economic growth are improving, with forecasts for real GDP growth adjusted upwards by major financial institutions [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.7% to 1.1%, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its projections for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively [9][10]. Investment Sentiment - Lee's commitment to boosting the stock market, with aspirations for the KOSPI index to reach 5000 points, has attracted renewed interest from global asset management firms [10].

随着李在明的上台以及新一轮预算案出台的前景，海外投行已纷纷上调韩国今年的经济增长预期。 据新华社援引韩国总统府消息，韩国总统李在明6月6日与美国总统特朗普通话，谈及韩美关系、经贸磋 商等话题。这是李在明就任韩国总统后首次与特朗普通话。在约20分钟的通话中，特朗普祝贺李在明当 选韩国总统，同时邀请他访美。 4日正式宣誓就职后，李在明已下达"一号行政令"，要求组建"紧急经济检查工作组"，着手提振韩国经 济。李在明强调，韩国目前正面临民生、经济等多重困境，韩国新一届政府将大力发展人工智能、半导 体等高科技产业、持续加大投入，提升韩国企业竞争力，积极创造就业机会并将努力消除地域发展不均 衡等问题。 惠誉评级亚太区主权评级董事杰瑞米·祖克（Jeremy Zook）告诉第一财经，李在明成为韩国新一届总 统，会减少韩国国内的政治波动并提高政府在短期内政策实施的能力。"此次总统选举的结果意味着， 结束了此前总统和立法机构隶属于不同政党的局面。至少在2028年国民议会选举之前，韩国政坛将维持 现状。" 李在明的上任也让韩国资本市场吃了定心丸。自4日以来，韩国基准股指KOSPI上涨超4%，较4月低点 反弹超20%逼近牛市，一度触 ...

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output fell by 1.4% and exports decreased by 1.7% in April, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - The decline in industrial output and exports indicates a challenging start to the second quarter, particularly for the new Chancellor Merz [3] - Despite the weak April data, some economists remain optimistic about future production recovery due to new order growth [3] Group 2 - The German economy is expected to stagnate in 2025, marking an unprecedented three consecutive years of zero growth [3] - Structural issues such as aging labor force and bureaucratic challenges continue to affect Germany's economic resilience [4] - The German government has approved a tax relief plan worth approximately €46 billion (about $52 billion) as part of an economic stimulus strategy [4]

政治动荡叠加贸易战阴霾，韩国央行连续第四次降息，同时下调经济增长预期，并释放出更多宽松政策即将到来 的强烈信号。 将维持降息立场以减轻经济增长的下行风险，并在密切监控国内外政策环境变化的同时，调整进一步 基准利率削减的时机和步伐。 央行本次降息背景复杂，韩国正面临政治动荡与贸易压力的双重打击。 前总统尹锡悦去年12月试图实施戒严令失败后被弹劾下台，国家持续处于政治不确定性之中。 5月29日，韩国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至2.5%，创下2022年8月以来最低水平，这是该行在过去六次会 议中第四次降息。 此举凸显了这个亚洲第四大经济体正面临前所未有的困境：政治危机持续发酵，特朗普政府关税大棒高悬，经济 增长陷入自2020年四季度以来的首次萎缩。 韩国央行将2025年GDP增长预期从此前的1.5%大幅下调至仅0.8%，并明确表态维持降息立场，以缓解经济增长的 下行风险。 韩国央行行长李昌镛表示，如果2025年增长前景继续回落，将考虑更多降息。 央行决议之后，韩国KOSPI指数扩大涨幅，现涨1.7%。韩元兑美元汇率下跌0.71%，最新报1381.40。 韩国经济面临前所未有的困境 韩国央行将此次降息的原因归于 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Congress passed a fiscal and tax reform reconciliation bill, projected to increase government debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with current debt exceeding $36 trillion[3] - The market sentiment is mixed due to concerns over the deficit, leading to a further decline in the U.S. dollar index[9] - Historical data indicates that during dollar depreciation phases, non-U.S. equities tend to outperform U.S. equities, and commodities like copper, gold, and oil show upward trends[9] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, with the implementation deadline pushed to July 9 after negotiations[2] - The ongoing tariff discussions are seen as part of Trump's negotiation strategy rather than a definitive policy shift[2] - The focus is shifting from tariffs to fiscal stimulus, although concerns about the deficit complicate market reactions[9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24 are projected at 227,000[23] - The April core PCE price index year-on-year is reported at 2.5%, indicating a slight decrease from previous levels[23] - The U.S. housing market shows signs of recovery, with a 6.1% increase in the April pending home sales index[23]

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于 超长期债券。此外，日元套息交易平仓活跃度已突破2012年以来新高，也可能对美股美债产生冲击。进 一步地，若美元资产抛售引发资金回流日本，关注是否会影响美日贸易谈判对"金融条款"的涉及。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于超长期债券。虽然5月日债利率持续上升，但10 年期日债和美债利率的趋势、涨幅基本一致，利率上行压力或来自美债市场的传导。值得关注的异动发 生于本周二(5月20日)，日债利率曲线从走平转为陡峭，20、30年期利率分别跳升13和12基点，单日即 贡献近半当月累计涨幅，且该异动无法从超长期美债利率走势中找到对应。 市场讨论的部分因素对异动的解释力或许不足。 利率上行本已加剧市场对政府债务的担忧，财政刺激方案进一步催化情绪。5月20日超长期债券利率跳 升的催化事件为20年期日债拍卖遇冷——利率已处于上升通道，而日本政府近期讨论财政刺激以应对外 需压力，杠杆率超200%的日本政府若在加息周期举债将加剧债务的不可持续风险。日本2025财年政府 预算草案显示，政府支出中债务赎回 ...

美股进入高位震荡阶段，散户创记录入场抄底拉盘，后续行情能否追高？鲍威尔悄然放鸽转向，降息之 前美股是否还有一跌？特朗普财政刺激或将起反作用。美股短期布局警惕一大风险因素>> 相关链接 ...