Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to pause interest rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 3.5%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [2][15]. Economic Factors - The focus for this year's interest rate cuts is on the employment recovery trend rather than inflation constraints. The employment growth threshold is set at 100,000 jobs per month, which could determine the Fed's future actions regarding rate cuts [4][10]. - The employment market has shown signs of weakness since 2025, influenced by factors such as immigration restrictions, government layoffs, and structural impacts from AI. The Fed may pause rate cuts if job growth stabilizes around 100,000 per month [4][10]. - Inflation should not be viewed as a precondition for rate cuts but rather as a feedback mechanism from the economy. Current inflation risks are considered weak, with core goods inflation unlikely to rise significantly [4][10]. Non-Economic Factors - The potential for fiscal stimulus under election pressure is a key non-economic factor that could affect rate cut expectations later in the year. This is more significant than changes in Fed personnel [11][12]. - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to drive fiscal policies, with Trump potentially introducing additional fiscal measures to gain voter support if current non-spending measures fail [12]. FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC's recent meeting reflected a more optimistic tone regarding economic growth, shifting from "moderate expansion" to "solid expansion." The unemployment rate is showing signs of stabilization, although job growth remains low [15][16]. - Powell emphasized the importance of Fed independence during the press conference, avoiding questions about personnel changes and market volatility [16][17]. Market Reactions - The market anticipates two rate cuts this year, with a slight decrease in the probability of a June rate cut from 82.7% to 75.1%. Asset performance has been moderate as the market awaits earnings reports from major companies [20].

专题：美联储维持基准利率不变 鲍威尔排除加息可能性 并建议继任者"远离政治" 美东时间1月28日，美联储2026年1月会议后宣布维持联邦基准利率于3.50%至3.75%区间不变。本次会 议有四位新的储备银行行长轮值进入委员会，其中大多数持鹰派倾向；不过有两位委员——米兰和沃勒 ——认为应进行25个基点的降息。整体声明措辞也略偏鹰派：将美国经济活动的描述由"中等"提升 为"稳健"；就业增长则被描述为低迷，失业率显示"一些稳定迹象"；此前关于就业下行风险上升的表述 也被删除。 在会后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了对美联储维持独立性的信心。他指出，在宽松的金融 环境和预期的财政刺激下，增长前景将有所改善。他重申，下一步很可能是降息，但在确认关税相关的 通胀影响是暂时性之前，不太可能再启动降息。 摩根资产管理认为，美联储可能至少在2026年上半年暂停降息。会议声明表明，委员会认为其双重使命 的风险大致平衡，当前的政策近乎中性水平。我们预计受到财政刺激支持支出和关税成本推进，通胀或 重新加速，并在2026年中期达到峰值，招聘也可能暂时增加，但整体劳动力供应增长疲软，或限制失业 率上行，在通胀上行，就业改善的20 ...

Core Insights - Germany has revised down its economic growth forecasts for the next two years due to increased global trade uncertainties and the slow implementation of economic and fiscal policy measures [1][4] - The government has lowered the 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.0%, while the 2027 GDP growth rate is now expected to be 1.3%, down from a previous estimate of 1.4% [1][4] - Despite these adjustments, the new forecasts remain significantly higher than the 0.2% growth recorded in 2025, following two consecutive years of economic contraction [1][4] Economic Stimulus Impact - A landmark €500 billion (approximately $600 billion) infrastructure fund was approved by the German parliament in March, but only €24 billion has been invested by the end of the year, indicating slow decision-making within the federal system [1][4] - Fiscal policy measures are expected to contribute approximately two-thirds of a percentage point to GDP growth by 2026 [5] Consumer and Export Outlook - Private consumption is projected to grow by only 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, assuming a stable savings rate of about 10.5% of household income [6] - After three years of decline, exports are expected to increase by 0.8% [3][7] - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff increases from last year continue to exert pressure on the global economy, and weakened demand from key non-European export markets may further reduce Germany's global market share [6]

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 国债期货：震荡偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：财政部有关负责人介绍，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平， 确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于 "两重"建设和"两新"工作，并优化政策。央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。从 财政部及央行相关官员表态来看，货币宽松及财政刺激依然是今年的重要政策调控手段，市场对利率下行 预期增加，债市做多氛围增加。受金融市场影响及财政发债等各方面扰动，1月份之后，资金面持续维持 较高的位置，对债市形成一定偏空影响，但是由于国际地缘扰动等因素，避险情绪有所增加，叠加国内央 行及财政逆周期调节预期，债市做多氛围增加。股债跷跷板及股债双牛逻辑是否会有所切换，需要持续关 注。 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板 2.资金面扰动 3.经济数据情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and JPY depreciation, especially with the upcoming snap general election on February 8, 2026 [1][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Election Impact on Market**: The outcome of the snap general election is expected to influence the equity market significantly. A simple majority for the LDP is anticipated, which could lead to a flat or slightly declining market initially, but potentially rising to 57,000 by year-end [11]. - **Equity Market Projections**: - If the LDP secures a simple majority, the Nikkei could be flat to down slightly post-election but may rise to 57,000 by year-end [11]. - If the LDP falls short, the Nikkei could initially decline to 52,000 but then rise to 55,000 by year-end [11]. - A stable majority could push the Nikkei above 56,000 immediately after the election, potentially exceeding 60,000 by year-end [11]. - **Threshold Levels for JPY and Interest Rates**: - The market is closely monitoring the USD/JPY rate, with concerns rising if it exceeds ¥165/$ and particularly if it reaches ¥170/$ [7][19]. - A 10-year JGB yield above 3% is also a critical threshold, as it could lead to a downturn in stocks [58][67]. - **Corporate Earnings Outlook**: - Under risk scenarios where interest rates and FX exceed break-even levels, corporate earnings, especially for export-oriented companies, are expected to increase. However, the negative impact of yen depreciation and declining P/E ratios may outweigh these gains, potentially leading to a market correction [7][11]. - **Market Correction and Buying Opportunities**: - Even if a correction occurs, it is viewed as a lower bound based on earnings and valuation, presenting a potential buying opportunity for Japanese equities [7][11]. - **Fund Flows**: - Short-term selling pressure from foreign investors is expected, but medium-term fund flows from domestic players, such as pension funds, could provide upward pressure on Japanese equities [7][73]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Sentiment**: A survey indicated that 94% of corporate managers rated the Takaichi administration's fiscal policy positively, suggesting confidence in the administration's ability to manage market concerns [18]. - **Valuation Trends**: Overseas demand-oriented sectors have been favored in the market, with rising P/E ratios, while domestic demand-oriented sectors have seen limited downside risk [44][45]. - **Fiscal Impact of Rising Rates**: The government may face increased interest expenses due to rising long-term yields, but fiscal expansion could also raise tax revenue if corporate earnings and household income increase [66]. - **Repatriation of Investments**: There is potential for significant repatriation into Japanese assets by financial institutions and pension funds, which could positively impact the equity market [75]. Conclusion - The Japanese equity market is at a critical juncture with the upcoming election and the potential for rising interest rates and JPY depreciation. While there are risks, particularly concerning thresholds for JPY and interest rates, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with potential buying opportunities identified in the event of market corrections. The focus on fund flows and corporate earnings will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory moving forward [1][11][73].

商品市场方面，全球市场在地缘政治摩擦加剧的冲击下剧烈震荡。以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属成为了市场的焦点，其强劲的避险需求直接驱动了价格的 飙升。原油市场方面，除地缘局势外，哈萨克斯坦一直难以恢复全球最大油田之一的产量及北美极端寒潮天气引发美国天然气史诗级暴涨，推动油价宽幅 震荡走高。 （数据来源：wind，日期截至2026年1月23日，指数过往业绩不预示其未来表现，投资需谨慎） 01 市场回顾 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现 (2026/1/19-2026/1/23) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅 | | 巴西IBOVESPA指数 | 8.53% | 建筑材料 | 9.23% | 澳元兑美元 | 3.19% | | 中证500 | 4.34% | 石油石化 | 7.71% | 欧元兑美元 | 1.97% | | 韩国综合指数 | 3.08% | 钢铁 | 7.31% | 美元兄港元 | 0.01% | | 科创50 | 2.62% | 基础化工 | 7.29% | 欧元兑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. consumers are set to experience an unprecedented "cash rain" due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), with personal income expected to surge in Q1 2026, driven by retroactive tax measures [1] Group 1: Tax Refunds and Consumer Impact - The total personal tax refunds are projected to reach approximately $350 billion (around 2.5 trillion RMB) by the end of May, marking a 20% year-on-year increase [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that this year's personal tax refunds will be $40 billion to $70 billion higher than last year, with the average refund amount increasing by $550 to a historical high of about $3,500 [1] - The tax benefits primarily stem from deductions on overtime pay, tips, senior deductions, car loan interest, and increased child tax credits [4] Group 2: Economic Implications for Investors - The substantial tax refunds are expected to provide short-term support for consumer spending, particularly in the first half of the year, despite anticipated slow growth in actual consumption in early 2026 [7] - This fiscal stimulus signals a direct improvement in household balance sheets, especially for middle and high-income households [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the actual disposable personal income will grow at an annualized rate of 4.1% in Q1 2026, reversing the stagnant trend observed in the second half of 2025 [12] Group 3: Consumption Behavior and Economic Data - Historical data indicates that only about 30-40% of tax refunds are typically spent in the first quarter after receipt, with higher-income and senior beneficiaries likely to save or pay down debt rather than spend [12] - The OBBBA is expected to boost actual consumption by only 20 basis points, with an overall GDP impact of approximately 40 basis points [12] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - Despite the fiscal stimulus, trade tensions and high tariffs continue to pose challenges, with the effective tariff rate rising to 16% and expected to remain high [13][16] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience moderate GDP growth, with Morgan Stanley raising the Q4 2025 GDP growth tracking value to 2.1% [14][16] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate stance, emphasizing steady economic growth while acknowledging inflationary pressures from tariffs [14][16]

美国股债汇三杀解读 20260121 摘要 特朗普政府对格陵兰岛的兴趣源于其地缘战略位置和丰富的稀土、石油 资源，虽遭丹麦拒绝出售，但美国可能通过关税等手段施压，对欧洲经 济构成潜在威胁。 日本首相高市早苗解散众议院旨在打破财政法案推行僵局，寻求更多支 持以实施财政计划，但面临公明党反水和在野党竞争的挑战，选举结果 存在不确定性。 美国资产避险属性减弱，美元走弱，美债利率攀升，丹麦养老金降低美 债头寸，欧盟讨论将美债作为金融武器，资金流出压力增加，传统避险 资产如贵金属或受益。 海外市场波动可能通过次生地缘风险影响中国，如欧洲为维稳美欧关系 采取更鹰派姿态，对中国产生负面影响，美国中期选举期间市场波动性 可能增加。 2026 年美国经济波动受执政党和在野党政治博弈影响，财政刺激与反 制措施交织，加剧金融市场不稳定，国际事件如格陵兰岛争议亦带来不 确定性。 特朗普对格陵兰岛采取行动有两大原因：首先，格陵兰岛位于连通北极的重要 航道上，是一个关键地缘点。如果北极冰层融化，它将重塑全球航运格局。其 次，格陵兰拥有丰富的稀土和石油资源，这些资源尚待开发。近期特朗普在被 海外市场波动可能对中国投资者带来短期风险压力，但 ...

韩国经济在2025年最后三个月环比出现萎缩，但在关税和政治动荡交织的这一年里，仍实现了韩国央行 的年度增长目标。 2025年全年，这个依赖出口的经济体扩张了1.0%——与韩国央行的预测相符，因为出口的韧性和财政 刺激措施帮助抵消了建筑投资的低迷。韩国央行周四公布的初步数据显示，10-12月期间国内生产总值 （GDP）较前一季度下降0.3%。在此之前，第三季度经济经修正后扩张了1.3%。韩国央行表示，第四 季度该国经济同比增长1.5%，而前一季度经修正后为增长1.8%。最新数据低于市场预期。接受媒体调 查的经济学家此前预测，第四季度经济将环比增长0.2%，同比增长1.5%。随着包括旨在提振消费者支 出和商业活动的现金发放在内的财政刺激措施在年底前逐渐减弱，政府支出和私人消费在该年最后一个 季度有所走软。建筑投资、设备投资以及出口在该年最后三个月均较前一季度有所下降。 责任编辑：王永生 韩国经济在2025年最后三个月环比出现萎缩，但在关税和政治动荡交织的这一年里，仍实现了韩国央行 的年度增长目标。 2025年全年，这个依赖出口的经济体扩张了1.0%——与韩国央行的预测相符，因为出口的韧性和财政 刺激措施帮助抵消了 ...

Group 1 - The global currency market is currently influenced by political agendas from the US and Japan, with the US dollar weakening due to political risks and the Japanese yen under pressure from aggressive fiscal policies [1][2] - Trump's hardline stance on the Greenland acquisition has sparked a new round of trade conflict with Europe, leading to a proposed 10% tariff on eight European countries, which could rise to 25% if negotiations fail [2] - Despite resilient US economic data, political risks are expected to weaken the dollar throughout the year, with a projected decline of approximately 9.5% in the dollar index for 2025 [2] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has not shown strength against G10 currencies, with its exchange rate dropping below 158 and approaching the critical 160 level, primarily due to domestic political factors [5] - Prime Minister Kishi's unexpected proposal to temporarily reduce the food consumption tax for two years has surprised the market, as she previously held a negative view on tax cuts [8] - Concerns over Japan's fiscal health have intensified due to the shift towards tax reduction, leading to a sell-off in Japanese government bonds (JGB), with the 10-year JGB yield rising to 2.270% [9] Group 3 - Early polls indicate that Kishi's ruling coalition may secure a majority in the upcoming elections, with 69% of respondents believing the new opposition party cannot effectively challenge the ruling alliance [12] - However, analysts caution against overinterpreting these poll results, as the electoral landscape can change rapidly [12]