12月8日，日本内阁府公布的修正数据显示，日本第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值萎缩2.3%，这一数字 不仅比初值1.8%的跌幅更为严峻，也超出了市场普遍预期的2%收缩幅度。 这是日本经济自2024年第一季度以来，时隔六个季度再次陷入萎缩。最新数据显示，日本经济正以自 2023年第三季度以来最快的速度收缩。 经济萎缩 从季度环比来看，剔除通胀因素后的实际GDP在7月至9月期间收缩了0.6%，比初步估计的0.4%降幅更 为严重。 数据显示，占日本经济总量超过一半的私人消费终值微增0.2%，略高于初步估计的0.1%增幅。 不过，作为衡量私人需求关键指标的资本开支反而下降了0.2%，与初值1.0%的增长形成鲜明对比。 外部需求（出口减去进口）使GDP减少了0.2个百分点，与初步数据一致。 面对经济萎缩，日本首相高市早苗领导的政府已经于11月敲定了规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对 策。 这项支出的核心是物价纾困，包含多项直接针对家庭的财政支持措施，例如能源成本补贴、育儿家庭补 助以及税收减免等，旨在缓解民众的生活成本压力。 数据显示，2025年日本已有超过2万种食品涨价，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）已连续49个月同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is facing unprecedented challenges, with a significant decline in sales area and revenue, necessitating a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 4-5% of GDP to halt the downward spiral [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Challenges - The real estate market is troubled by three main issues: ongoing debt pressure on developers, with total debt exceeding 30 trillion yuan and 6.8 trillion yuan due within the year [3]; low buyer confidence, with only 16.3% of residents expecting price increases, a ten-year low [3]; and a cooling land market, with land transfer fees in 300 cities down 23% year-on-year, impacting local finances [3]. Group 2: Proposed Policy Measures - Morgan Stanley's report suggests a combination of policies to reverse market expectations, including at least 2 trillion yuan in special loans from policy banks to support "guaranteed delivery" and reasonable financing needs of developers [5]; and interest subsidy policies for homebuyers, recommending first-home loan rates below 3% and second-home rates under 4%, with an expected subsidy scale of 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical examples indicate the importance of timely and sufficient policy intervention, such as the U.S. TARP program during the 2008 financial crisis, which was 700 billion USD and stabilized the real estate market [6]; and China's previous successful measures in 2014-2015, which included interest rate cuts and lower down payment ratios [6]. Group 4: Challenges to Implementation - Implementing large-scale interest subsidy policies may face three challenges: fiscal sustainability, with the broad fiscal deficit rate reaching 7% in 2023 [6]; the capacity of the banking system, as net interest margins have narrowed to a historical low of 1.7% [6]; and the sustainability of policy effects to avoid repeating cycles of "stimulus-bubble-regulation" [6]. Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Design - Experts recommend focusing on three key points in policy design: precise targeting to support first-time and improvement demand [8]; establishing a market-based risk-sharing mechanism to avoid moral hazards [8]; and aligning with long-term institutional reforms, including pilot real estate taxes and a dual rental-purchase system [8]. Group 6: Macro Perspective - The real estate regulation faces a "trilemma" of preventing systemic risks, maintaining market stability, and promoting development model transformation, requiring a balance between short-term growth and long-term structural adjustments [10]. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that China has sufficient policy space and tools, with the next few months being critical for observing policy direction [10].

一方面，劳动力市场放缓使美联储继续倾向宽松政策。尽管美联储官员最近的言论存在分歧，但决策者 仍将在下周会议上依赖数据决策。最新数据显示，美联储更有可能降息25个基点。 "我们认为，无论美联储是本月降息还是等到明年1月才降息，改变的只是降息时点，而不是整体宽松倾 向或联邦基金利率的最终目标水平。这对中期投资前景至关重要。"瑞银财富管理补充称。 另一方面，该机构预计在针对性减税等财政政策措施的支持下，美国增长将在2026年下半年重新加速。 全球主要发达经济体的财政刺激和基础设施投资也可能助力增长加速，为风险资产提供有利环境。强劲 的盈利增长有望推动股市进一步上涨。瑞银财富管理预计，全球主要市场明年的盈利增长将达到7%至 14%的稳健水平，为短期上行提供支持。 "因此，随着当前有利的环境延续到2026年，配置不足的投资者可以考虑增加股票敞口。我们看好美国 科技、医疗保健、公用事业和银行板块，欧洲市场有望受益于政策和结构性增长。在亚太地区，我们看 好澳大利亚、日本和中国，尤其是中国科技板块。"瑞银财富管理表示。 12月4日，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点，认为有利环境或继续对全球股市构成利 好。 上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's combination of expansive fiscal policy and tight monetary policy may lead to risks of a reversal in carry trades, necessitating vigilance regarding the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and the Federal Reserve's dovish periods [1] Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government has introduced an economic stimulus plan totaling 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135 billion USD), slightly above market expectations but lower than 2022 levels [1] - The stimulus plan focuses on three main areas: 11.7 trillion yen (55%) for inflation subsidies and livelihood support, 7.2 trillion yen (34%) for strategic industry investments, and 1.7 trillion yen (8%) for defense and diplomacy [4] - The fiscal stimulus may increase Japan's deficit ratio to 3% by 2026, with Japan's deficit expected to expand by 1.77 percentage points, compared to 1 percentage point for the U.S. and 0.84 percentage points for Germany [4] Group 2: Impact on GDP and Inflation - The fiscal stimulus is projected to boost Japan's GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, although the impact is expected to be lower than that of the U.S. and Germany [5] - Japan's fiscal multiplier is low at 0.27, compared to an average of 0.8 for developed economies, which contributes to the lower effectiveness of the stimulus [5] - The stimulus may temporarily lower overall inflation but could increase core inflation pressures due to rising demand [6][7] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Carry Trade Risks - The combination of fiscal expansion and cautious monetary tightening may increase the risk of a reversal in carry trades, as the narrowing U.S.-Japan interest rate differential diminishes the profitability of such trades [10][11] - The 2-year U.S.-Japan interest rate differential has decreased from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 2.5%, heightening the risk of carry trade reversals [11] - The potential for increased volatility in the currency and bond markets may trigger risks of carry trade unwinding, particularly during periods of policy mismatch between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve [11]

Group 1 - The Japanese government announced a significant economic stimulus plan amounting to 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 820 billion RMB), representing 3.2% of Japan's GDP, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and green energy [1][3] - 64% of the stimulus funds will be raised through new government bonds, leading to an increase in government debt by 11.7 trillion yen, pushing the total government debt to 1,333.6 trillion yen, which is 235% of GDP [3][5] - The Bank of Japan holds 45% of the national debt, creating a cycle of "monetization of fiscal deficits," raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt strategy [3][5] Group 2 - The government plans to invest 330 billion yen (approximately 15 billion RMB) into the Rapidus project, aiming for 2nm process mass production by 2027, reminiscent of the successful VLSI project from 1976 [5][7] - Japan's semiconductor industry faces significant challenges, with TSMC holding 56% of the advanced process foundry market and ASML monopolizing the EUV lithography market, leaving Japan with a technological gap in processes below 14nm [5][7] - Historical lessons from the 1980s semiconductor decline and the 2013 Abenomics indicate potential pitfalls for the current stimulus plan, as past policies led to increased debt without corresponding GDP growth [7][9] Group 3 - The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry predicts a potential GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 if the stimulus plan is successfully implemented, but the IMF warns of structural issues like an aging population and low corporate investment [9][10] - Political decisions, such as rejecting suggestions to ease tensions with China, complicate Japan's economic recovery, indicating a paradox between economic revival and diplomatic relations [9][10] - The stimulus plan reflects Japan's difficult choice in the context of US-China strategic competition, highlighting that fiscal stimulus alone cannot achieve industrial upgrades or true prosperity [10]

证券研究报告 宏观 财政刺激有望推高日本名义增长 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 12 月 01 日│中国内地 图说日本月报 图说日本宏观月报 | 2025 年 11 月 第十六期 概览：日本三季度 GDP 季环比折年负增主要受暂时性因素拖累，随着关税 不确定性下降，日本出口企稳，且内需继续改善，四季度经济整体延续修复 态势。劳动力市场仍有韧性，通胀反弹。高市政府推出上任以来的首个财政 刺激方案，日央行转鹰。全月来看，"高市交易"延续，美日利差收窄、但 日元走弱；日本长端国债收益率上行。 1. 实体经济走势：三季度 GDP 走弱，通胀边际升温 暂时性因素导致日本三季度 GDP 负增。日本三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速 由二季度的 2.3%回落至-1.8%，其中，净出口和住房投资是主要拖累，前者 受美国关税政策影响，后者则由于建设标准改变导致住房投资前置；私人消 费则维持韧性。 日本 11 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升，综合 PMI 维持在荣枯线上方。日本 11 月 综合 PMI 回升至 52.0，其中制造业 PMI 从上月的 48.3 小幅回升至 48.8；服 务业 PMI 小幅回升 0.03pp 至 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is planning to finance a new round of economic stimulus through a significant increase in government bond issuance, amounting to approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) to cover the spending gap from the recently announced economic measures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The 2025 supplementary budget is expected to have general account expenditures of about 18.3 trillion yen, with 17.7 trillion yen allocated for the implementation of the economic measures, marking a substantial 27% increase from the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen [2]. - The total scale of the comprehensive economic measures is approximately 21.3 trillion yen, indicating a significant commitment to economic stimulus despite the associated debt concerns [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - The planned bond issuance significantly exceeds the 6.7 trillion yen in bonds issued by the previous administration, reflecting Japan's heavy reliance on debt financing [2]. - The Japanese yen and long-term government bonds have been under pressure, with the yen trading around 156 against the dollar and long-term bond yields rising, indicating market concerns over Japan's fiscal health [3][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns and Future Outlook - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising questions about the government's ability to balance economic stimulus with fiscal responsibility [5]. - Analysts express concerns that continued reliance on debt issuance could exacerbate fiscal deterioration, especially given the pressures from an aging population and the sustainability of tax revenue growth [5][6]. - The potential for rising interest rates, coupled with high leverage, could increase interest expenditure as a proportion of fiscal spending, further straining the budget [5][6]. Group 4: Global Implications - The ongoing sell-off of Japanese assets may have broader implications for global markets, particularly if investors liquidate overseas assets to cover yen-denominated loans, potentially impacting U.S. Treasuries and equities [7]. - The risk of a liquidity crunch in global markets could arise if yen carry trades are unwound, leading to capital outflows from emerging markets [7].

本文字数：2413，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 在经历了超过五年的停滞之后，德国经济可能正在显现复苏迹象。 2025.11.28 欧盟在近期发布的最新预测中表示，预计德国经济在2026年和2027年都将增长1.2%。 德国联邦统计局发布数据也显示，德国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）保持平稳，避免了经济衰退。与 此同时，德国9月份工业订单和产出以及出口均有所回升。德国联邦银行表示，在服务业扩张和工业部 门企稳的推动下，预计第四季度将实现温和增长。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）专家在近日访问德国后发表声明表示，德国政府对债务刹车机制进行了具有 里程碑意义的改革，预计这将有助于推动经济逐步复苏。 "复苏指日可待。"德意志银行首席德国经济学家温克勒（Robin Winkler）表示，"我们只需要等待财政 刺激措施真正发挥作用。" 第一财经采访的多位学者和德国经济学家均指出，作为欧洲最大经济体，德国近年来遭受一系列打击， 包括地缘政治冲突带来的能源成本飙升、美国提高对德出口关税以及在汽车等关键领域面临激烈竞争 等，但这些挫折也给德国政策制定者和企业敲响了警钟，他们更加重视增加投资、提高借贷规模和增加 国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo's inflation in November exceeded expectations, indicating a potential steady progression of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the coming months [1][13][21]. Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, surpassing the Bank of Japan's target of 2% and slightly above the forecast of 2.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous month [4][21]. - Food prices, excluding fresh produce, increased by 6.5%, marking the third consecutive month of slowing growth [6][21]. - Energy prices rose by 2.6%, with electricity costs up 4.5% year-on-year and city gas prices up 0.7% [7][21]. Economic Indicators - Retail sales in Japan for October increased by 1.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 0.8% [10]. - Industrial output for October showed a preliminary month-on-month increase of 1.4%, against an expected decline of 0.6% [11]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%, aligning with expectations [12]. Government and Monetary Policy - The Japanese government plans to implement an economic stimulus package exceeding 20 trillion yen to address rising living costs [13]. - The government is expected to issue approximately 11.7 trillion yen (about 529.9 billion RMB) in new bonds to cover the spending gap from the stimulus plan [14]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that the impact of this large-scale fiscal stimulus may be "far below expectations" [14]. Market Expectations - The recent inflation data is likely to bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in raising interest rates [17]. - Market speculation regarding a potential interest rate hike in December has intensified, driven by the ongoing tight labor market and core inflation rates expected to remain above 3% [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to issue at least 11.5 trillion yen (approximately 735 billion USD) in new bonds to fund a new economic stimulus package, which is expected to be approved in an upcoming cabinet meeting [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Stimulus and Budget - The supplementary budget for this fiscal year is projected to be 17.7 trillion yen, aimed at funding a total economic stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen, marking the largest fiscal stimulus since the easing of pandemic restrictions [5]. - Japan's tax revenue is expected to reach a record 80.7 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2026, driven by rising wages and inflation, which has increased personal income and consumption tax revenues [5]. - Despite record tax revenues, the government still needs to significantly increase borrowing to cover high stimulus expenditures, indicating a challenging balance between fulfilling stimulus commitments and maintaining fiscal responsibility [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Fiscal Concerns - Investors are concerned about Japan's long-term fiscal health, as the country's debt exceeds twice its GDP, leading to a sell-off of the yen and Japanese government bonds [2][6]. - Long-term government bond yields have reached their highest levels in over two decades, reflecting market pricing of future supply increases and fiscal risks [6]. - The Prime Minister has indicated that the total bond issuance for this fiscal year will be lower than the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen, attempting to reassure market sentiments while emphasizing the importance of "responsible and proactive public finance" [6].