Group 1 - The recent adjustment in A-shares is attributed to profit-taking pressure and changes in market expectations after a period of continuous gains [1] - PMI data has led to a cooling of expectations regarding incremental policies and pro-cyclical measures [1] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have become uncertain due to statements from the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in non-farm payroll data [1] - The agreement between the US and its allies has dampened expectations for improved US-China relations [1] - Despite these factors, the global monetary easing and ample liquidity in the A-share market remain unchanged, sustaining investors' bullish outlook [1] - The current market sentiment has cooled from an exuberant state, and a phase of consolidation in the A-share market is anticipated [1] Group 2 - The positioning of the market determines the behavior of leading funds, which in turn influences the structural patterns of rising industries [2] - Historically, liquidity-driven markets tend to see concentrated leadership in industries rather than a high-low rotation [2] - The focus of funds is on high consensus varieties rather than low-position varieties [2] - The performance in July confirmed that the market is gradually concentrating on trend-based varieties, as the efficiency of high-low rotation is relatively low [2] - A recent marginal slowdown in incremental liquidity suggests that the market needs to cool down for sustainable growth [2]

Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and outline economic work for the second half of the year [1] - Liu Xiaoning, Assistant General Manager and Director of the Research Institute at Huayuan Securities, indicated that the meeting sets the tone for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued fiscal and monetary easing [1] - The expectation is that China will achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025, which supports a stable and positive development of the stock market [1] Economic Policy and Market Impact - Since September 2024, economic recovery has been observed, driven by incremental policy measures, leading to a steady rise in the stock market [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which is expected to further boost investor confidence and promote a stable upward trend in the stock market [1] - The focus on macroeconomic policies and their timely reinforcement is aimed at sustaining economic growth and supporting the capital market's development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to outline the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, positioning it as a leader among major economies, with an expectation to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% by 2025 [1] Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the need to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market, which is expected to boost investor confidence and support a stable upward trend in the stock market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Adjustment for long - term strategic allocation due to potential dollar weakness, monetary policy easing, and continued gold purchases by countries, despite short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and trade negotiations [1] - Silver: Follow gold and copper adjustments, with long - term upward trend intact due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus, short - term adjustment to focus on support around 9050 [1] - Copper: Short - term struggle at the 79,000 psychological level, recommend dip - buying, long - term bullish due to global copper mine tightness [1][7] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see due to uncertain sentiment, long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][10] - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 in Myanmar, weak supply - demand, and inventory accumulation [1] - Aluminum: Price rebound is under pressure due to high - level imports of bauxite and inventory accumulation in the off - season [1][12] - Nickel: Price rebound is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][13] - Industrial Silicon: Likely to remain at a high level despite supply increase and demand drag [1] - Polysilicon: Likely to remain at a high level with strong cost support but limited spot trading [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation with supply - side risks, focus on 69,000 support [1][15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold and silver prices oscillated at high levels due to the uncertain cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and weak US data [2] - **基本逻辑**: Short - term tariff risks receded, but long - term gold bullish logic remains due to Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance acceleration, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [3] - **策略推荐**: Focus on support around 760 for gold and 9100 for silver, maintain long - term views [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, back to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: Tight copper concentrate supply, increasing electrolytic copper production, weakening rod - making开工率, and potential impact of US tariff policies on exports [6] - **策略推荐**: Short - term dip - buying on copper, long - term bullish, focus on Shanghai copper range [78,000, 80,000] and London copper range [9700, 9900] [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and oscillated narrowly [9] - **产业逻辑**: Abundant zinc concentrate supply in 2025, increasing refined zinc production, weak demand in the off - season [9] - **策略推荐**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, focus on Shanghai zinc range [22,400, 22,800] and London zinc range [2650, 2850] [10] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina prices rebounded [11] - **产业逻辑**: High - level aluminum ingot and bar inventory in the off - season, weakening downstream开工率, and abundant alumina supply [12] - **策略推荐**: Short - term short - selling on aluminum rallies, focus on the range [20,000, 20,800] [12] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel prices rebounded slightly [13] - **产业逻辑**: Weak nickel supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and over - supply in the stainless steel market during the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Short - selling on nickel and stainless steel rallies, focus on the nickel range [120,000, 123,000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced positions with a 6% decline [14] - **产业逻辑**: Inventory accumulation, production increase despite some corporate cut - offs, and potential impact of mining license risks [15] - **策略推荐**: Wait - and - see, focus on the 69,000 support level [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to dovish remarks from Fed officials, threats to the Fed's independence, a medium - term weakening trend of the US dollar, loose policies in many countries, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Silver is likely to have a strong - level range as there is a supply gap, economic demand is supported, and it is affected by the prices of base metals and gold. Copper is expected to oscillate, with a short - term rebound and long - term optimism. Zinc will have a short - term rebound and long - term supply - demand imbalance. Lead is under pressure due to increased supply and insufficient consumption. Tin's short - term rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and seasonal consumption decline. Aluminum's rebound is under pressure with high production capacity and weak terminal demand. Nickel may have a short - term rebound but faces long - term challenges. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in high - level ranges. Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Despite positive US data, gold and silver maintained a high - level range due to dovish Fed statements and ongoing tariff negotiations [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: The risk of a US economic recession has decreased, with better - than - expected initial jobless claims and retail sales data. There are potential changes in the Fed's leadership, and geopolitical issues such as the Iran - nuclear deal remain uncertain. The long - term bullish trend for gold is supported by tariff uncertainties, global order reshaping, and loose fiscal and monetary policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is advisable [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists, and electrolytic copper production has increased significantly. There are concerns about copper inventory flowing back to the Asian market, but downstream开工 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors is resilient [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, copper has rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips. In the long term, due to the tight global copper ore supply, a bullish view on copper is maintained. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,800, 79,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,600, 9,800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc continued to rebound and traded in a range [7]. - **Industry Logic**: The zinc ore supply is expected to be abundant in 2025, and smelters are actively resuming production. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the galvanizing enterprise开工 rate is lower than usual due to weak steel demand [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc will continue to rebound due to improved macro and sector sentiment. In the long term, given the supply - demand imbalance, it is advisable to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,680, 2,780] US dollars/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [9]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro uncertainties remain. Production capacity is high, inventory has increased, and downstream开工 has declined. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and there are short - term supply shortages due to some enterprise maintenance. The supply - demand structure is expected to be loose in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties remain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved slightly, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, the production cut has weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared during the off - season [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000, 122,000] yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and price, then pulled back [13]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply - side disruptions such as mine closures have led to a strong rally in the main contract, pricing in improved supply - demand conditions. However, total inventory has reached a new high. Although import pressure has eased, domestic production remains high. Terminal demand in the new - energy vehicle market has slowed, but the energy - storage market has some growth [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, with a trading range of [66,500, 67,500] yuan/ton [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to Trump's tariff threats, fiscal expansion in many countries, long - term monetary easing, and global order reshaping. Silver will have a strong - level range trading as government fiscal deficit stimulus supports demand. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term positive outlook. Zinc is likely to trade in a range, with opportunities to short on rallies. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are under pressure. Industrial silicon has a strong expectation but a weak reality, trading in a high - level range. Lithium carbonate is expected to face resistance in its rebound and trade in a range [1]. - Gold has support from Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [2][3]. - Copper is in a high - level range. Although the price is high and suppresses demand, the long - term outlook is positive due to the tight global copper mine supply and its strategic importance [7][8]. - Zinc is under pressure. With the supply of zinc concentrate increasing and demand being weak during the off - season, short - term short positions can be held, and opportunities to short on rallies can be grasped in the long term [9][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the industry enters the off - season, with costs rising and inventory increasing. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [11][12]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure. With supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to short on rebounds [13][14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. Although demand shows signs of increase, the supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and the total inventory is still rising [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases provide support for gold [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new tariff plan may increase inflation risks in the US and trigger asset selling. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term investors can consider taking long positions. Silver is in a range - bound trading, with strong support at 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, trading in a high - level range [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The production of electrolytic copper has increased, but high prices have suppressed demand. The global visible copper inventory is at a historical low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After a full correction, consider taking long positions on dips. In the long term, the outlook for copper is positive. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000], and for London copper is [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fell under pressure, testing the support at the integer level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and domestic inventory has slightly increased. The downstream galvanizing enterprises' operating rate is affected by weak steel demand and is lower than in previous years [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the short term. In the long term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for London zinc is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded but faced resistance, and alumina prices rebounded and then fell [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have increased slightly, inventory has turned to accumulation, and demand has entered the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite is high, and the production capacity has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel prices rebounded but faced resistance [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the cost of overseas nickel mines provides support, but inventory has accumulated again, and demand is in the off - season. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure may reappear [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream production cut changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 125000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and followed the double - silicon trend [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and total inventory is at a new high. Although demand shows signs of increase, it is difficult to verify the authenticity. The supply side has both maintenance and复产, and the output increase is in line with expectations [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to trade in a high - level range, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance. The focus range is [63000 - 64000] [16].

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook has deteriorated in the first half of the year due to trade tensions, but a moderate recovery is expected in the second half supported by fiscal and monetary easing in major countries [1][2] - The U.S. tariff policy has been a significant factor affecting global economic performance, with recent agreements easing trade tensions [1][6] - Analysts suggest that the current economic cycle resembles that of the second half of 2019, with expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion in the U.S., Europe, and China [1][4] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The current round of global monetary easing has been ongoing for over a year, with significant rate cuts from the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England [4] - The U.S. is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on employment and inflation data [4][6] - The U.S. Congress has passed a significant tax and spending bill, projected to increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion to $4.2 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to stimulate investment and consumption [5][6] Trade and Inflation Concerns - Trade protectionism continues to pose risks to global economic growth, with projections indicating that growth in 2025 will remain below long-term trends [10][11] - Analysts highlight that the resolution of tariff issues will be crucial for the growth outlook, particularly for Asian economies [11][12] - Recent surveys indicate a more optimistic outlook for the global economy, with a notable increase in respondents expecting improvement in economic conditions [9] Regional Economic Projections - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward, reflecting improved expectations due to easing trade tensions [7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, with similar upward adjustments for China and the Eurozone [7] - Despite a generally positive outlook, the potential for continued trade disputes remains a significant concern for economic stability [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Despite a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, long - term factors such as debt ceiling expansion, monetary easing, and global order reshaping support a long - term bullish view [1][2]. - Silver is predicted to have a strong - level range - bound movement. It is influenced by basic metals and gold price sentiment, with a relatively strong support around 8700 [1]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions partially, with a long - term bullish outlook. However, short - term high - level risks should be watched out for [1][4][5]. - Zinc is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped [1][7][8]. - Lead is likely to rebound in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound and then decline because of supply disruptions and the entry of the consumption off - season [1]. - Aluminum is predicted to face pressure on its short - term rebound. Although there is short - term support from inventory reduction, the off - season and inventory build - up expectations may limit the upside [1][10][11]. - Nickel is expected to rebound in the short term, but it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies, paying attention to inventory changes [1][12][13]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to have a short - term high - level range - bound movement, with a long - term supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to the 65,000 resistance level [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly positive, and non - manufacturing PMI improved, leading to a reduced probability of interest rate cuts and a price adjustment for gold [2]. - **Industry Logic**: The increase in non - farm payrolls reduced the probability of interest rate cuts. The "Great Beauty Act" is about to be passed. Long - term factors such as global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing support a long - term bullish view for gold [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although there is short - term adjustment, the U.S. dollar is in a medium - term weakening trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and a long - term bullish view remains. Consider long - term investment opportunities [3]. Silver - **Market Review**: Supported by U.S. large - scale fiscal easing, silver shows an upward sentiment and range - bound movement, with strong support around 8700 [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level and trade within the range [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is trading in a high - level range [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. Some mines in Peru are facing transportation disruptions. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and LME copper inventory is slightly replenished. Although it is the consumption off - season, green copper demand in power and new - energy vehicles is strong [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions partially and take profits on rallies. Be cautious of short - term high - level risks. In the long run, copper is bullish. Focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc has a small rebound and narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. A large - scale zinc smelter in Peru is on strike, but overall zinc ore supply is at a high level, and TC is rebounding. Domestic inventory is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the U.S. dollar rebounding and commodity market sentiment easing, zinc is in a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. Focus on the range of [22,000, 22,600] for Shanghai zinc and [2,700, 2,800] dollars/ton for London zinc [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have a short - term rebound, while alumina faces pressure on its rebound [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro sentiment has improved, and domestic policies are favorable. However, it is the off - season, and inventory build - up is emerging. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and domestic production capacity is stable, with a relatively loose supply situation [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas macro environment has improved, but cost support has weakened, and domestic supply pressure is significant. For stainless steel, production cuts are weak, and the off - season and high - inventory pressure continue [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 125,000] [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased in positions and rose, with the late - session gains narrowing [14]. - **Industry Logic**: The price was boosted by the news of lithium salt plant production cuts, but only one smelter was actually under maintenance. There are large differences in downstream production schedules. In the long run, the supply is in surplus, and inventory is continuously reaching new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term high - level range - bound movement, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance level [63,000 - 64,500] [15].