Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend judgments for multiple futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each product has its own specific trend, such as gold breaking below the support level, silver oscillating downward, etc. [2][5] Summary by Product Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 737.64, down 2.90%. [2][7][11] - **Silver**: Oscillated downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 yesterday was 7991, down 2.20%. [2][7][11] Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacked a clear driver, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity was 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 77,870, down 1.36%. [2][13][15] - **Aluminum**: Oscillated within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Alumina**: Continued to rebound, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - **Zinc**: Prices were adjusted downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22590, down 0.53%. [2][20][21] - **Lead**: Adjusted within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16975, up 0.24%. [2][23][24] - **Tin**: Oscillated in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 265,210, down 0.21%. [2][26][31] - **Nickel**: The news affected market sentiment, while the fundamentals changed little, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory decreased slightly at a high level, and short - term repair might not be too high, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The inventory accumulation pattern was difficult to reverse, and the weak trend might continue, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][37][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak fundamentals remained, and the futures price had a downward driving force, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices continued to decline, and the futures price was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors were realized, and the upward driving force slowed down, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][43] - **Rebar**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There was concentrated production reduction in the main producing areas, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Manganese Silicide**: The raw material price continued to rise, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - **Coke**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Coking Coal**: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory increased, and prices oscillated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][59][61] - **Log**: Oscillated repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][62][66] - **Para - Xylene**: Had a single - sided oscillating market. [2][67] - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA. [2][68] - **MEG**: The single - sided trend remained relatively strong. [2][68] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward trend slowed down. [2] - **Asphalt**: Oscillated repeatedly following crude oil. [2] - **LLDPE**: Had a medium - term oscillating market. [2] - **PP**: Prices rose slightly, but trading volume was weak. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: There was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillated. [2] - **Urea**: Oscillated with support. [2] - **Styrene**: Oscillated in the short term. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2] - **LPG**: Short - term bearish factors were realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [2] - **PVC**: Oscillated in the short term, and there was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continued. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Retreated in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market slightly narrowed. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The pressure was released stage by stage, and it was looking for support below. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There was an emotional bubble in US soybean oil, and the risk of edible oils increased. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Concerns about the biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybeans might lead to a weak oscillation. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Might oscillate weakly following other soybean products. [5] - **Corn**: Oscillated. [5] - **Sugar**: Trended weakly. [5] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market sentiment. [5] - **Eggs**: Oscillated and adjusted. [5] - **Live Pigs**: The game continued. [5] - **Peanuts**: Oscillated strongly. [5] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Oscillated strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [5] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Oscillated in the short term. Hold the strategy of going long on PF and short on PR. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillated weakly. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward. Copper lacks a clear driving force and its price is oscillating. Aluminum is in a range-bound oscillation, while alumina continues to rebound. Zinc's price is declining, lead is in a range adjustment, and tin is oscillating within a narrow range [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and Gold T+D decreased by 2.90% and 3.06% respectively, while Comex Gold 2506 and London Gold Spot increased by 1.61% and 1.98%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed to varying degrees, and the ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: The Fed Chairman Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise. The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and Silver T+D decreased by 2.20% and 2.50% respectively, while Comex Silver 2506 and London Silver Spot increased by 1.23% and 1.31%. Trading volume, open interest, ETF, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including Fed policy and US economic data [4][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 1.36%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.08%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads all had changes [10]. - **News**: Macroscopically, the Fed may adjust the interest - rate framework, and long - term low - interest rates may end. Microscopically, China's copper imports in April 2025 were flat compared to the same period last year, and the cumulative imports from January to April decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: For aluminum and alumina, on May 15, 2025, 0.2 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both aluminum and alumina, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 0.53%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.51%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [16]. - **News**: The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.03%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [19]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 0.21%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.18%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spot prices all had changes [23]. - **News**: A series of macro and corporate news, including Fed policy, US economic data, and corporate cooperation and development news [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [27].

Group 1: Retail Sales and Economic Outlook - US retail sales growth slowed to only 0.1% month-on-month in April, with 7 out of 13 categories declining, indicating consumer spending contraction due to tariff concerns [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a review of the monetary policy framework, suggesting adjustments to the average inflation target and employment gap language, emphasizing a commitment to a 2% inflation target [1][2] - Consumer data reflects potential preemptive spending before anticipated price increases, raising uncertainties about the future of the US economic recovery [1] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, rising nearly 2% in a single day, with a price swing of over $100, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over US fiscal policy [3][4] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, with predictions of prices potentially reaching $4000 per ounce due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases [3][4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry Impact - Trump's executive order to lower drug prices significantly affects pharmaceutical companies, with Citigroup upgrading Regeneron and downgrading AbbVie based on their exposure to policy risks [5][6] - The order links US drug prices to lower prices in other developed countries, creating valuation risks for major pharmaceutical firms, particularly European companies like Novo Nordisk [5][6] Group 4: Semiconductor Manufacturing in India - Foxconn received approval to invest $435 million in a semiconductor manufacturing facility in India, aiming for production by 2027, which aligns with Apple's strategy to diversify its supply chain [7][8] - Apple's production in India has increased significantly, with 20% of global iPhone shipments now produced there, although high-end models remain manufactured in China [7][8] Group 5: Banking Sector Regulation Changes - US regulators are preparing to announce the largest reduction in bank capital requirements in over a decade, which could enhance banks' lending capacity and improve profitability [9][10] - The adjustment of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) may lead to increased bank stock valuations and market performance, although it carries potential risks of excessive lending [9][10] Group 6: Surge in Container Shipping from China - Following tariff adjustments, US importers significantly increased orders from China, with container bookings surging by 277% in a week, indicating a strong demand rebound [11][12] - Logistics companies anticipate further increases in container shipping volumes in the coming weeks, although this surge may not represent a sustainable trend [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell is re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise [7][18][24]. - The rebound in the crude oil market may not be over, but the expected US - Iran peace talks have weakened the upside space. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads lightly [8]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term but still face pressure in the medium term [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward [13][19]. - **Fundamentals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is - 1 [18][22]. - **News**: The Fed's adjustment of the monetary policy framework, US economic data such as PPI and retail sales, and international political and economic events [18][23]. 3.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper lacks a clear driver and its price is oscillating [13][24]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices had fluctuations in the day and night sessions, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **News**: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and news about copper imports and mining projects [24][26]. 3.3 Aluminum and Alumina - **Core View**: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina continues to rebound [13][27]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of aluminum and alumina. The trend strength of both is 0 [27][29]. - **News**: Spot alumina transactions in Henan [27]. 3.4 Zinc - **Core View**: Zinc prices are adjusting downward [13][30]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [30][31]. - **News**: US economic data [31]. 3.5 Lead - **Core View**: Lead is in a range - bound adjustment [13][33]. - **Fundamentals**: Lead prices had slight changes, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [33][34]. - **News**: US economic data [34]. 3.6 Tin - **Core View**: Tin is oscillating in a narrow range [13][36]. - **Fundamentals**: Tin prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [37][41]. - **News**: The Fed's policy adjustment, US economic data, and international political and economic events [38]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: News has affected market sentiment for nickel, but the fundamentals have changed little. For stainless steel, inventory has slightly decreased at a high level, and the short - term recovery may not be significant [13][42]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of nickel and stainless steel. The trend strength of both is 0 [42][46]. - **News**: Indonesia's adjustment of nickel product resource tax rates, Canada's potential nickel export policy change, and the progress of nickel - related projects [42][45]. 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: The pattern of inventory accumulation in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to reverse, and the weak trend may continue [13][47]. - **Fundamentals**: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is 0 [47][49]. - **News**: The price increase of battery - grade lithium carbonate and the growth of the global electric vehicle market [48][49]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation and the disk has a downward drive. Polysilicon's downstream prices continue to fall, and the disk is weak [13][50]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon. The trend strength of both is - 1 [50][52]. - **News**: Lian Sheng Technology's major asset restructuring [51]. 3.10 Iron Ore - **Core View**: Short - term positive factors for iron ore have been realized, and the upward drive has slowed down [13][53]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore prices declined slightly, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength is - 1 [54]. - **News**: China's M2 data [54]. 3.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [13][56]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices had minor fluctuations, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [56][58]. - **News**: Steel production data from the China Iron and Steel Association, steel production, inventory, and demand data from Shanghai Steel Union, and China's loan and money supply data [56][58]. 3.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: Ferrosilicon has concentrated production cuts in major producing areas and is in wide - range oscillations. Silicomanganese's raw material prices continue to rise, and it is also in wide - range oscillations [13][60][61]. - **Fundamentals**: There were changes in the prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The trend strength of both is 0 [60][63]. - **News**: Price changes and production cuts in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets [60]. 3.13 Coke and Coking Coal - **Core View**: Both coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations due to the decline in hot metal production [13][64][65]. - **Fundamentals**: Coke and coking coal prices declined, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The trend strength of both is 0 [65][68]. - **News**: Price and inventory data of coke and coking coal [65]. 3.14 Steam Coal - **Core View**: Steam coal inventories in mines are increasing, and the price is oscillating weakly [13][69]. - **Fundamentals**: Steam coal had no trading on the previous day, with price and inventory information. The trend strength is 0 [69][71]. - **News**: Steam coal prices in domestic and foreign ports [70]. 3.15 Logs - **Core View**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [13][72].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks following the pandemic [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Framework Review - The Federal Reserve's "consensus statement" was first formalized in 2012, outlining its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, which has remained unchanged to date [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conducted its first public review of the consensus statement in 2019, committing to reassess the framework approximately every five years [3]. - Since 2020, the economic environment has changed significantly, prompting the Fed to evaluate its current framework, with results expected by August or September [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Post-pandemic, the rise in inflation-adjusted "real" interest rates may affect the components of the Fed's current framework [4]. - Higher real interest rates could indicate a greater likelihood of inflation instability compared to the 2010s, suggesting a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks [4]. - The Fed is also considering improvements to its formal policy communication, particularly regarding forecasts and uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, citing increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation [6]. - Recent data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year in April, the lowest increase since early 2021, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to rise around 2.2% [6]. - Economists predict that the current moderation in inflation may not last, with expectations of price acceleration due to the impact of import tariffs [6].

当地时间5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议并发表讲话。鲍威尔表示，正在调整其总体政策制定框架，以应对2020年疫情后通 胀和利率前景的重大变化。 为何调整？ 在发言中，鲍威尔首先回顾了美联储的"共识声明"的历史。 鲍威尔表示，2012年，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）首次将货币政策框架编纂成文，题为《长期目标和货币政策战略声明》（Statementon Longer-Long Term Goalsand Monetary Policy Strategy），即"共识声明"。至今该声明开头段落中的措辞从未改变，表明美联储对履行国会任务的承诺，并清楚地解释了美联 储正在做什么以及为什么这么做。这种明确性减少了不确定性，提高了货币政策的有效性，并增强了透明度和问责制。 在2019年，美联储对共识声明进行了第一次公开审核，并表示将大约每五年重复一次此类审核。重新评估经济的结构特征并与公众、从业者和学者就框架的表现进 行互动是适当的。 但鲍威尔表示，自2020年以来，经济环境已发生重大变化，美联储的评估将反映这些变化的考量。美联储于五年前采用当前框架，并于今年启动对该框架的评估。 但鲍威尔认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework, particularly regarding its views on employment shortfalls and achieving inflation targets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Review - Federal Reserve officials have initiated a review of the long-term strategy for implementing monetary policy, which includes the communication tools used to guide the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in achieving price stability and maximum employment [1][2]. - The current framework was designed during a period of low interest rates and low inflation, and there is a need to ensure that any new consensus statement can adapt to a wide range of economic conditions [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Targeting - The Federal Reserve's inflation target remains set at 2%, with a focus on anchoring long-term inflation expectations around this target [2]. - The review will reflect the significant changes in the economic environment since 2020, indicating that the previous assumptions about the zero lower bound on interest rates are no longer fundamental [2]. Group 3: Employment Shortfall Definition - The review has led to an adjustment in the definition of "employment shortfall," shifting the focus to periods of high unemployment rather than equally weighing high and low unemployment rates [2]. - This change reduces the tendency for preemptive interest rate hikes aimed at cooling the labor market before inflation pressures arise [2]. Group 4: Response to Inflation - The Federal Reserve's previous framework has been criticized for not responding timely to inflation post-pandemic, with some observers suggesting that the focus on employment targets contributed to this delay [2][3]. - Powell refuted claims that the policy framework caused a lag in response, stating that officials initially judged the inflation caused by the pandemic to be temporary [3]. Group 5: Timeline for Review Completion - The Federal Reserve intends to complete the current framework review by the end of summer this year [4].