花旗银行周二将欧洲大陆股票评级下调至"中性"，为一年多来首次。该行称，最新一轮跨大西洋紧张局 势升级和关税的不确定性削弱了短期内投资欧洲股市的理由。美国总统特朗普上周末威胁，将对八个欧 洲国家加征额外关税，直到美国被允许收购格陵兰岛，这让贸易不确定性再度升温。花旗策略师表 示："我们在全球资产配置中将欧洲评级下调至中性。"他们指出，尽管其预测目标显示，泛欧STOXX 600指数到2026年底之前仍有上行空间，但其他市场的风险回报更具吸引力。 ...

花旗策略师表示："我们在全球资产配置中将欧洲评级下调至中性。"他们指出，尽管其预测目标显示， 泛欧STOXX 600指数．STOXX到2026年底之前仍有上行空间，但其他市场的风险回报更具吸引力。 美国总统特朗普上周末威胁，将对八个欧洲国家加征额外关税，直到美国被允许收购格陵兰岛，这让贸 易不确定性再度升温。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 花旗银行周二将欧洲大陆股票评级下调至"中性"，为一年多来首次。该行称，最新一轮跨大西洋紧张局 势升级和关税的不确定性削弱了短期内投资欧洲股市的理由。 责任编辑：王永生 美国总统特朗普上周末威胁，将对八个欧洲国家加征额外关税，直到美国被允许收购格陵兰岛，这让贸 易不确定性再度升温。 花旗银行周二将欧洲大陆股票评级下调至"中性"，为一年多来首次。该行称，最新一轮跨大西洋紧张局 势升级和关税的不确定性削弱了短期内投资欧洲股市的理由。 花旗策略师表示："我们在全球资产配置中将欧洲评级下调至中性。"他们指出，尽管其预测目标显示， 泛欧STOXX 600指数．STOXX到2026年底之前仍有上行空间，但其他市场的风险回报更具吸引力。 责 ...

格隆汇1月20日｜加拿大央行调查显示，受持续进行的美国贸易战影响，企业与消费者普遍持有持久的 悲观情绪。企业将金融、经济与政治状况的不确定性、需求放缓以及成本压力列为主要担忧。贸易不确 定性和对物价上涨的担忧继续压制消费者信心，受访者表示违约债务或失业的可能性有所增加。央行在 报告中指出："企业继续将金融、经济和政治状况的不确定性、需求放缓以及成本压力视为其最紧迫的 担忧。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Canada may overlook the temporary price increases caused by last year's federal tax rebates, which accelerated the overall inflation rate from an average of 2.2% since September to 2.4% [1] - Dominique Lapointe, a macro strategy director at Manulife Investment Management, indicates that annualized core inflation metrics for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month periods have all shown a slowdown, suggesting that price pressures remain controlled [1] - Lapointe anticipates that the Bank of Canada will maintain interest rates at its next policy meeting on January 28, and trade uncertainties will likely compel the central bank to remain cautious throughout 2026 [1]

Core Insights - The International Labour Organization's report indicates that while the global economy shows resilience, progress towards "decent work" has significantly stalled [1] Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is expected to remain consistent from 2025 to 2027, with no significant recession anticipated [1] - The global unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at 4.9% in 2026, with approximately 186 million unemployed individuals [2] Employment Quality and Participation - Employment quality improvements have slowed, with a notable increase in informal employment, projected to reach 2.1 billion people, or 57.7% of the global workforce by 2026 [2] - The labor force participation rate is expected to decline to 60.5% by 2027, primarily due to aging populations in high-income countries [2] Inequality in Employment - Gender inequality remains a significant issue, with women making up only 40% of the global workforce and facing lower participation rates compared to men [3] - Youth unemployment is worsening, with a global youth unemployment rate of 12.4% in 2025, and 2.6 billion young people neither employed nor in education or training [3] Trade and Technological Impact - Trade continues to support global employment, providing jobs for 465 million workers, but trade uncertainties are suppressing wages and high-quality job growth [3] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence is creating complex impacts on the job market [3] Structural Challenges in Low-Income Countries - Low-income countries are experiencing a 3.1% employment growth, but slow productivity growth and a lack of quality jobs are leading to increased informal employment and in-work poverty [4] - Labor income as a share of GDP is declining, with a projected labor income share of 52.6% in 2025, down from 53.0% in 2019 [4] Government Debt and Employment Policies - Global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of GDP, limiting governments' ability to improve employment quality due to fiscal pressures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing high volatility influenced by divergent US-Canada policies, oil price fluctuations, and trade uncertainties, with the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.3892 as of January 16, 2026, reflecting a slight increase of 0.0944% [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - In 2025, the CAD's performance was affected by policy adjustments and trade tensions, with the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates by a total of 100 basis points to 2.25%, the lowest since July 2022 [1] - The Bank of Canada signaled a pause in rate cuts during the December meeting, leading to market expectations of no further rate cuts before March, which, along with a rebound in oil prices, helped stabilize the CAD [1] - The Canadian economy showed resilience in Q4 2025, with a surprising annualized GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, reversing a contraction trend [1] Group 2: Employment and Trade Dynamics - The Canadian job market showed mixed signals, with 53,000 new jobs added in November 2025, but the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December, indicating a weak labor market that limits the CAD's attractiveness [2] - In trade, Canada experienced a shift from a surplus to a deficit in October 2025, with a trade deficit of 583 million CAD, driven by an 8.4% decline in energy product exports, while metal and non-metal mineral exports surged by 27.3% to a record high [2] - The trade surplus with the US narrowed from 8.4 billion CAD in September to 4.8 billion CAD, while exports to non-US countries increased by 15.6%, indicating a diversification in trade partners [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Market Outlook - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil prices, with WTI crude oil recently rising to around 60.70 USD per barrel due to OPEC+ production cuts and tensions in Iran, providing support for the CAD [3] - However, concerns over potential oversupply from the US resuming Venezuelan oil imports, estimated to add 30 to 50 million barrels, could pressure Canadian oil exports [3] - Short-term resistance for USD/CAD is noted between 1.3920-1.3950, with support at 1.3820-1.3850, while long-term factors to monitor include the pace of Fed rate cuts, oil supply dynamics, and the review progress of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government will impose a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products and manufacturing equipment starting from the 15th, citing national security threats as the reason for this decision [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff will apply to specific products, including Nvidia's H200 chip and AMD's MI325X AI accelerator chip [1]. - The tariffs are based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, aimed at addressing national security risks [1]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Context - The U.S. consumes about 25% of the global semiconductor products, but only produces about 10% of the chips it requires [1]. - The current semiconductor production capacity in the U.S. is insufficient to meet both defense and growing commercial demands, leading to significant economic and national security risks due to reliance on foreign supply chains [1]. Group 3: Exemptions and Future Actions - Semiconductor products used in data centers, research, maintenance, and public sectors are exempt from the new tariffs [1]. - Existing tariffs on passenger vehicles, light trucks, heavy-duty vehicles, steel, copper, and aluminum products from Canada and Mexico will not be subject to additional tariffs [1]. - If negotiations with relevant exporters do not reach an agreement within 180 days, further actions may be taken by the U.S. President [1]. Group 4: Broader Trade Implications - Recent tariff measures by the Trump administration, including those on pharmaceuticals and heavy trucks, have introduced new uncertainties in trade [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government will impose a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products and manufacturing equipment starting from the 15th, citing national security concerns and the need to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff will apply to specific products, including Nvidia's H200 chips and AMD's MI325X AI accelerator chips [1]. - The tariff is based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, aimed at addressing national security threats [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. consumes about 25% of the global semiconductor products, but only produces about 10% of the chips it requires [1]. - Current U.S. semiconductor production is insufficient to meet defense and commercial demands, posing significant economic and national security risks [1]. Group 3: Exemptions and Future Actions - Semiconductor products used in data centers, R&D, maintenance, and public sectors are exempt from the new tariffs [1]. - Other products already subject to tariffs, such as passenger vehicles and metals, will not face additional tariffs [1]. - If negotiations with exporters do not reach an agreement within 180 days, further actions may be taken by the U.S. President [1]. Group 4: Broader Implications - Recent tariff measures by the Trump administration, including those on pharmaceuticals and heavy trucks, have introduced new trade uncertainties [1].

Economic Outlook - The Swiss economy shows slight improvement due to reduced US tariffs and a somewhat better global situation, with the KOF economic leading indicator rising 1.7 points to 103.4, the highest level since September 2024, exceeding market expectations of 101.4 [1] - The positive trend is particularly evident in the production sector, with manufacturing indicators indicating a favorable outlook, although private consumption and foreign demand indicators remain under pressure [1] Sector Performance - Within the productive industries (manufacturing and construction), most sub-indicators, including employment prospects, intermediate product inventories, and overall business conditions, are showing positive development [1] - However, sub-indicators related to production activity and order backlogs are weakening, and the food and beverage producers, as well as the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, are experiencing weak performance, slightly limiting the overall optimistic outlook [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The Swiss government has revised down its economic growth forecast for 2026, primarily due to high US tariffs, projecting a growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026 [1] - Recent easing of overall trade uncertainties and expansionary fiscal policies abroad are beneficial for the Swiss economy and may support exports, leading to a moderate improvement in economic prospects [1] Monetary Policy - The Swiss National Bank maintains its policy interest rate at 0%, the lowest among major central banks, in light of the economic outlook and persistent low inflation [2] - Previous high tariffs have negatively impacted economic growth, while safe-haven capital inflows during trade turmoil have strengthened the Swiss franc, making imports cheaper and further suppressing inflation [2]

Core Insights - Mexican financial assets are experiencing one of their strongest years in decades, significantly outperforming Wall Street benchmarks [1] - The year 2025 has become historic for Mexican assets, with a synchronized rally in equities and the Mexican peso [1] Market Performance - The iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:EWW) has surged over 50% year to date, marking its best performance since 1999, while major U.S. benchmarks like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) and Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) gained approximately 17% and 21% respectively [2] - The Mexican peso has appreciated by more than 14% against the U.S. dollar, on track for its best annual performance since 1993 [3] Monetary Policy Impact - The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has cut interest rates by 300 basis points since the start of the year, reducing the policy rate to 7%, which has injected liquidity into the economy and supported investor confidence [6] Individual Stock Performance - Mining and materials firms have seen substantial returns, with Industrias Peñoles S.A. de C.V. rising over 260%, Gentera SAB DE CV climbing over 100%, and both CEMEX SAB DE CV and Grupo México SAB DE CV increasing more than 80% [7] Economic Context - Despite the market rally, Mexico's economy contracted in the third quarter, with GDP falling 0.2% after flat growth in the second quarter, leading Banxico to lower its growth outlook for 2025 to 0.3% [9] - Factors such as declining remittances, modest job creation, slowing credit growth, and weak consumer confidence are negatively impacting the economy [10] Future Outlook - Potential catalysts for the Mexican economy include the FIFA World Cup and the finalization of the USMCA, which could alleviate trade-related uncertainties [11] - If economic weakness persists, Banxico may continue to cut rates to stimulate demand, while investors remain focused on falling rates and currency strength [11]