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Ternium(TX) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-30 13:32
Ternium (TX) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 30, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsSebastián Martí - Global IR and Compliance Senior DirectorMáximo Vedoya - CEOPablo Brizzio - CFOCaio Greiner - Equity Research DirectorConference Call ParticipantsCarlos de Alba - Equity Research AnalystEmerson Vieira - Equity AnalystRafael Barcellos - Head of LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper and Cement - Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorHello, and welcome to Ternium Second Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference ...
IMF:大幅调高中国今年经济增速预期
天天基金网· 2025-07-30 05:12
Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "maintaining fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions [1]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at rates of 4.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, with China's growth rate for 2025 adjusted up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [7]. Inflation Expectations - Global inflation is projected to decline, with rates expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although significant disparities exist among different economies [1][10]. - The IMF anticipates that U.S. inflation will remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is expected to be more moderate [10]. Trade Volume Adjustments - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points, citing increased uncertainty in trade policies [4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to amplify tariff impacts rather than mitigate them, with U.S. fiscal policies potentially offsetting some negative effects on the current account balance [4][5]. Fiscal Vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of increasing global fiscal vulnerabilities, with some economies, including Brazil, France, and the U.S., projected to face significant fiscal deficits amid historically high public debt levels [5]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may lead to increased term premiums, particularly in the U.S., tightening global financial conditions and potentially causing market volatility [5].
IMF:大幅调高中国今年经济增速预期
第一财经· 2025-07-30 02:34
IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%,2026年为3.1%,分别比2025年4月WEO的预测调高0.2 个和0.1个百分点。IMF称,这反映出由于加征关税的预期,全球经济活动提前的水平强于此前预 期。 此外,IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%,在2026年降至3.6%,与4月预测相似,但各 经济体间的通胀水平仍将存在明显分化,比如IMF预测美国的通胀率将保持在目标水平之上,其他大 型经济体的通胀率则将更低。 IMF建议,全球政策需要通过缓和紧张局势、维护价格和金融稳定、恢复财政缓冲和实施急需的结构 性改革,从而带来信心、可预测性和可持续性。 2025.07. 30 本文字数:2561,阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 在7月29日发布的最新《世界经济展望》(WEO)报告中,国际货币基金组织(IMF)将全球经济情 况描述为"在持续的不确定性中,保持脆弱的韧性"。 | Year over Year Q4 over Q4 2/ Difference from April | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
Nucor(NUE) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nucor generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.6 per diluted share in the second quarter, representing a significant improvement over the first quarter results driven by higher average selling prices in the steel mill segment [6][16] - Year-to-date adjusted earnings were $782 million or $3.37 per share, with second quarter results including pre-operating and startup costs of approximately $136 million or $0.45 per share [16][17] - Total capital return to shareholders for the first half of the year reached $758 million, with $329 million returned in the second quarter through dividends and buybacks [6][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mills segment generated pre-tax earnings of $843 million, more than triple that of the prior quarter, driven by higher average selling prices, particularly in sheet and plate operations [17][19] - The steel products segment saw pre-tax earnings of $392 million, a 28% increase over the prior quarter, with stable realized pricing and higher volumes contributing to the best earnings quarter since 2024 [11][19] - The raw materials segment realized pre-tax earnings of approximately $57 million for the quarter, an increase of approximately 95% over the first quarter [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mills backlog at the end of the second quarter was up nearly 30% compared to the same time last year, indicating solid and steady booking rates [17] - The sheet backlog at the end of the second quarter was 15% higher than the same time last year, reflecting strong demand [18] - Nucor's bar shipments were 13% higher in the first half of the year, while plate shipments to the bridge market hit a record in the second quarter, rising 35% for 2025 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nucor is focused on executing its growth strategy and creating value for shareholders, customers, and communities while maintaining a strong safety record [5][10] - The company is well-positioned to support growth in steel-intensive projects and promote reshoring of vital manufacturing, leveraging its diverse capabilities in the North American steel market [15][27] - Nucor anticipates domestic steel demand will be higher in 2025 compared to 2024, with confidence in capturing a healthy share of that demand [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management described the pricing environment as broadly stable, with expectations of modest margin compression in the steel mill segment despite resilient backlogs and stable demand [18][26] - The company is optimistic about the impact of recent trade policies and tariffs, which are expected to curb unfairly traded imports and protect national security [12][14] - Management highlighted strong demand drivers in technology, infrastructure, energy, and data centers, which are expected to continue driving demand for steel and steel products [22][24][25] Other Important Information - Nucor's credit ratings are the highest among North American steel producers, with a total debt to capital ratio of approximately 24% and cash of approximately $2.5 billion [21] - The company is on track to deploy approximately $3 billion in capital expenditures for the year, with significant progress on several important capital projects [7][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the margin compression in the steel products segment? - Management indicated that the margin compression is not due to weak demand drivers but rather a lag effect from orders taken in late Q4 and early Q1, with recent price increases announced [29][33] Question: What are the biggest opportunities to displace imports in the second half of the year? - Management noted that opportunities exist across various product lines, with an 85% utilization rate across the steel mill segment and a focus on meeting demand where it exists [37][39] Question: Can you speak to the pre-operating startup costs and outlook for new assets? - Management expects pre-operating startup costs to be in the range of $140 million to $150 million per quarter for the back half of the year, with significant contributions to EBITDA anticipated as new assets ramp up [48][49] Question: What is driving the expected margin compression in the steel mills segment? - Management highlighted the impact of tariffs on raw materials and a lag effect in pricing as key drivers of the expected margin compression [56][105] Question: Have you seen any tariff-led costs in Q2? - Management confirmed that there were no tariff-led costs observed in Q2 [71] Question: What is the outlook for working capital in H2? - Management indicated that a large working capital build in H1 set up a constructive pivot for free cash flow in the second half of the year [79][80]
关税乐观情绪降温,越南股市大跌4%,欧股反弹,美元创月内新高,欧元跌至五周低点
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-29 07:52
Group 1 - Asian stock markets have declined for the third consecutive day, with Vietnam's VN Index dropping 4% as optimism from recent trade agreements fades [1][5] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by 0.8%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since late June [1][5] - Investors are shifting focus to key economic indicators as the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting [1][6] Group 2 - The EU-US trade agreement has sparked controversy, with critics arguing it poses risks to the European automotive industry and competitiveness [2] - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in five weeks, reflecting market skepticism about the trade deal [2][5] - Market reactions to the trade agreement have become more rational, with investors prioritizing hard data to assess economic and policy outlooks [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision is a key focus for the market, with significant economic data expected to be released this week [6] - Analysts predict that the data will indicate a rebound in economic activity for the second quarter, influencing short-term policy decisions [6] - Gold prices are projected to rise significantly, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and increasing global gold reserves [6]
海外宏观周报:美股业绩表现亮眼-20250729
China Post Securities· 2025-07-29 07:51
Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - As of July 28, 32% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 77% exceeding expectations, up from 73% last year[1] - 62% of companies reported both revenue and net profit exceeding expectations, compared to 48% last year[1] - Q2 revenue growth rate was 5.0% year-on-year, while net profit growth rate was 5.5%, better than last year's 3.1% for non-financial companies[1] Group 2: Market Recommendations - It is suggested to buy on dips in the U.S. stock market, as historical trends show seasonal weakness from September to November[2] - The high yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may lead to a potential pullback in Q3, but a weaker dollar could enhance S&P 500 earnings[2] Group 3: Risks and Economic Data - Risks include trade negotiations falling short of expectations and escalating tariff conflicts[3] - U.S. existing home sales slightly declined to 3.93 million units in June, falling below the 4 million mark[8] - Initial jobless claims show a slow decline, while continuing claims remain high, indicating increased difficulty in the job market[8]
特朗普豪取1.9万亿大单,鲍威尔在议息前被“火力”猛攻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 03:57
华盛顿上空,倒计时牌滴答作响。7月30日,美联储议息会议;8月1日,关税自动生效。美联储主席鲍威尔把自己锁在办公室,窗外,抗议者高 举"保卫美联储"的标语,而特朗普则在威斯康星州发表演讲,身后巨型屏幕上滚动着1.9万亿美元的数字,如同黄金铸成的棺椁,炫耀着其"历史 性胜利"。 但这胜利的背后,却是全球经济在渗血。 意大利投行Cassa Lombarda发出尖锐警告:"再动鲍威尔,美元霸权就要崩盘!"法国财长更直言不讳:"这是对全球经济的恐怖袭击!" 7月22 日,黄金价格突破3400美元/盎司,美元指数跌破98关口,几乎抹平了全年的涨幅。 这一切都源于特朗普政府近期一系列激进的贸易政策,以及 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的步步紧逼。 这三笔交易总规模超过1.9万亿美元,相当于每个美国公民凭空获得5700美元。特朗普当天连发三条社交动态:"历史性胜利!""美国第一!"然 而,硬币的另一面正在渗血。巴西牛肉因对等报复而价格飙升18%(全美23%的牛肉来自巴西),印度则采取拖延战术。 这个看似辉煌的"胜利",其代价却是巨大的经济风险。 鲍威尔成为了这场权力博弈的牺牲品,而全球经济则面临着巨大的不确定性。 特朗普的盟友们则开 ...
美国在WTO又有新动作!白宫高官将出任副总干事
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 03:28
伊维拉表示,诺德奎斯特女士是一位经验丰富的经济和政策战略家,拥有数十年的领导经验。 诺德奎斯特将于2025年10月1日正式出任WTO副总干事一职。 当地时间28日,世贸组织(WTO)总干事伊维拉官宣,任命诺德奎斯特(Jennifer Nordquist)为新任副总干事,接替即将于8月底卸任的埃拉德(Angela Ellard)。 诺德奎斯特现任白宫经济顾问委员会顾问。 "她将作为高级管理团队的一员,与我和其他副总干事一起,推动我们的目标,帮助我们的成员方利用贸易作为提高生活水平、创造就业机会和改善民生的 手段。"伊维拉称。 在特朗普政府上台后,有关美国是否要退出WTO的讨论之声再次甚嚣尘上。不过种种迹象显示,美方仍重视在WTO的人事和能力建设。 最新消息显示,美国参议院财政委员会今日以14票赞成、13票反对的结果通过了巴隆(Joseph Barloon)出任美国驻WTO大使的提名。 白宫经济高官任WTO副总干事 据悉,诺德奎斯特将于2025年10月1日正式出任WTO副总干事一职。 诺德奎斯特拥有西北大学新闻学硕士学位和斯坦福大学心理学与传播学学士学位,曾任美国战略与国际研究中心高级顾问、世界银行美国事务执行主 ...
宏观经济周报-20250728
工银国际· 2025-07-28 05:14
Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a short-term adjustment in the Chinese economy, with overall resilience in economic momentum[1] - The consumption index has slightly declined, likely due to the base effect from previous strong expansions, but overall resident demand remains stable[1] - The production and investment indices have both seen minor declines but are still close to the expansion zone, indicating overall stability in economic activities[1] Foreign Exchange Market - In the first half of 2025, the non-bank sector's cross-border receipts reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with the RMB accounting for over 50% of cross-border receipts[2] - The net inflow of enterprises and individuals was $127.3 billion, continuing the recovery trend from the second half of last year, reflecting active international economic exchanges[2] - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of 2025, with a settlement rate maintained at 60% and a decrease in the selling rate year-on-year[2] Global Economic Trends - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 55.2, marking the highest level since December 2024[5] - The Eurozone's composite PMI increased to 51 in July, with the services PMI at 51.2 and manufacturing PMI at 49.8, showing a mixed economic outlook[6] - The US Treasury Secretary projected tariff revenues could reach 1% of US GDP, with a potential total of $2.8 trillion over the next decade[7]
美国干了件好事,逼迫印度向中国投诚,令西方最担心的事情已出现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 09:23
哎,有时候这个世界真是充满了讽刺。美国特朗普上台后,原本想通过一系列措施解决贸易不公的问题,没想到最后却无意间让中国受益。2025年4月起, 特朗普对印度商品征收了26%的关税,这个政策直接给印度经济带来了巨大冲击。印度本来依靠出口纺织品、钢铁等商品赚取外汇,这些商品在美国市场的 关税突然增加,印度的企业不得不面对更加困难的局面。事实上,2025年初,印度对美国的出口曾增长了25.6%,然而进口只增长了8.2%,本就失衡的贸易 状况因此变得更加严重。加上关税的施压,印度被迫寻求新的出路。而更让人感到讽刺的是,特朗普的关税政策并非只针对印度,实际上是全球范围的,所 有国家都受到了影响。然而,作为一个新兴市场,印度受到的冲击尤其严重,因为它与美国的经济联系比较密切。 特朗普的政策不仅仅是加税那么简单。他还在公开场合重提了2019年的印巴冲突,称印度在冲突中损失了五架战机。这个说法在2025年7月19日的讲话中再 次被提起,令印度政府非常尴尬。印度方面虽然否认了损失这么多战机,但特朗普此言一出,相当于在公众场合让印度总理莫迪十分难堪。更让印度人感到 难以接受的是,特朗普办公室还暗示可能会访问巴基斯坦,虽然后来他澄清 ...