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薛鹤翔:政策助力期债价格回升
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-04 03:03
Core Viewpoint - Since October, the prices of government bond futures have shown a strong upward trend, reversing the weak performance of the third quarter, primarily due to the central bank's increased open market operations and the resumption of government bond trading, leading to a more relaxed market liquidity environment [1][29]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The average daily trading volume of government bond futures in October was 318,100 contracts, a decrease of 13.76% month-on-month, mainly due to the National Day holiday [4]. - The average open interest increased by 10.49% month-on-month to 678,000 contracts, indicating strong hedging demand in the market [4]. - The central bank's open market operations have resulted in a slight net injection of liquidity, maintaining a relatively stable overall funding rate [4][22]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment figures for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, which was below expectations and previous values, leading to increased risk aversion [8]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value but below market expectations, indicating moderate inflation [8]. - The central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 was influenced by the soft employment data and the government shutdown, which affected the release of several economic indicators [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The central bank has resumed government bond trading operations to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity, which is expected to support government bond prices [26][27]. - The central bank is likely to continue implementing a supportive monetary policy stance, providing both short-term and long-term liquidity arrangements to maintain relatively loose financing conditions [27]. - Despite achieving consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations, external uncertainties remain, and the domestic economy is facing challenges, particularly in the real estate sector, which continues to show weakness [29].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报:宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年11月4日)-20251104
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:01
Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report (November 4, 2025) [1] - Report Source: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The report presents the basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads data of various futures varieties including thermal coal, energy and chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from October 28 to November 3, 2025, with the aim of providing reference data for investors [1][5][21][27][42][53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are - 31.4, - 31.4, - 31.4, - 31.4, - 21.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of fuel oil is - 49.21 on November 3, 2025 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber is - 445 on November 3, 2025 [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are reported. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 80 [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2230 on November 3, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 64.0 [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.91 on November 3, 2025 [20] - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are reported. For example, the basis of rebar is 131.0 on November 3, 2025 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper is - 490 on November 3, 2025 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (14.44) [36] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 96 on November 3, 2025 [43] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are reported. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 36 [43] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc.) from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio is 1.92 on November 3, 2025 [43] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 is 18.60 on November 3, 2025 [54] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are reported. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 38.2 [56]
有色套利早报-20251104
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 00:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 4, 2025 [1][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86840, the LME spot price was 10886, with a ratio of 7.99; the domestic three - month price was 87380, the LME three - month price was 10912, with a ratio of 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09, and the profit was - 840.38 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22340, the LME spot price was 3207, with a ratio of 6.97; the domestic three - month price was 22595, the LME three - month price was 3077, with a ratio of 5.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the profit was - 4933.31 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21440, the LME spot price was 2906, with a ratio of 7.38; the domestic three - month price was 21605, the LME three - month price was 2911, with a ratio of 7.38. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, and the profit was - 2776.92 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123150, the LME spot price was 15049, with a ratio of 8.18. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, and the profit was - 1794.93 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17175, the LME spot price was 1999, with a ratio of 8.62; the domestic three - month price was 17430, the LME three - month price was 2027, with a ratio of 11.07. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.73, and the profit was - 228.43 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 270, 350, 300, and 300 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 537, 972, 1416, and 1861 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 215, 245, 250, and 260, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 456, and 577 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 305, 310, 300, and 305, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 336, 454, and 573 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 110, 120, 90, and 130, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, and 534 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 660, 890, 1070, and 1290 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 920, and the theoretical spread was 5910 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 215 and 485 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 288 and 808 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10 and 225, and the theoretical spreads were 150 and 280 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 135 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 138 and 252 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 3.87, 4.04, 5.01, 0.96, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.50, 3.74, 5.36, 0.94, 1.43, and 0.65 [5].
有色套利早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 31, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88050, LME spot price was 11021, with a spot ratio of 8.04; the domestic March price was 87970, LME March price was 11042, with a March ratio of 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22250, LME spot price was 3159, with a spot ratio of 7.04; the domestic March price was 22405, LME March price was 3063, with a March ratio of 5.67. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the loss for spot import was 4588.92 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21200, LME spot price was 2856, with a spot ratio of 7.42; the domestic March price was 21280, LME March price was 2861, with a March ratio of 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the loss for spot import was 2576.57 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123500, LME spot price was 15070, with a spot ratio of 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the loss for spot import was 1464.30 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17150, LME spot price was 1991, with a spot ratio of 8.64; the domestic March price was 17355, LME March price was 2025, with a March ratio of 11.04. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the loss for spot import was 160.71 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month and spot - month, March and spot - month, April and spot - month, May and spot - month were - 720, - 710, - 720, - 710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 545, 989, 1441, 1894 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 15, 25, 45, 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, 10, 25, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 336, 454, 572 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 15, - 10, 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, 535 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 270, - 140, 130, 360 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 740, and the theoretical spread was 5866 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract and spot, next - month contract and spot were 655, - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 404, 785 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 130, 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 144, 267 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 220, 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 162, 276 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.93, 4.13, 5.07, 0.95, 1.23, 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.81, 5.41, 0.94, 1.42, 0.66 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251030
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 01:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 30, 2025, to assist in identifying potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,770, the LME spot price was 11,095, and the spot price ratio was 7.84; the domestic three - month price was 88,700, the LME three - month price was 11,115, and the three - month price ratio was 7.90. No profit data for spot import and export was provided [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,280, the LME spot price was 3,198, and the spot price ratio was 6.97; the domestic three - month price was 22,455, the LME three - month price was 3,065, and the three - month price ratio was 5.66. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, with a loss of 4,825.07 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,170, the LME spot price was 2,904, and the spot price ratio was 7.29; the domestic three - month price was 21,330, the LME three - month price was 2,905, and the three - month price ratio was 7.31. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a loss of 2,941.11 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,150, the LME spot price was 1,989, and the spot price ratio was 8.65; the domestic three - month price was 17,380, the LME three - month price was 2,024, and the three - month price ratio was 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.70, with a loss of 112.78 [3]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 122,950, the LME spot price was 15,121, and the spot price ratio was 8.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.16, with a loss of 1,245.29 [1]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1,720, 1,710, 1,650, and 1,630 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 537, 972, 1,416, and 1,860 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 155, 180, 210, and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 175, 210, 225, and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 5, 15, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, and 536 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1,240, 1,390, 1,620, and 1,870 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 890, and the theoretical spread was 5,929 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 740 and 980 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214 and 950 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 5 and 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 156 and 286 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 225 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 166 and 280 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Ratio of Different Metals**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.95, 4.16, 5.10, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they were 3.61, 3.86, 5.49, 0.93, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 29, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 29, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,900, the LME spot price was 10,882, and the spot price ratio was 8.12; the domestic three - month price was 86,950, the LME three - month price was 10,902, and the three - month price ratio was 8.06. There was no data on spot import and export profitability [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,260, the LME spot price was 3,207, and the spot price ratio was 6.94; the domestic three - month price was 22,335, the LME three - month price was 3,036, and the three - month price ratio was 5.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, with a loss of 4,911.54 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,160, the LME spot price was 2,863, and the spot price ratio was 7.39; the domestic three - month price was 21,180, the LME three - month price was 2,861, and the three - month price ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31, with no profitability data [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,450, the LME spot price was 14,978, and the spot price ratio was 8.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.15, with a loss of 1,509.48 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,225, the LME spot price was 1,978, and the spot price ratio was 8.71; the domestic three - month price was 17,365, the LME three - month price was 2,014, and the three - month price ratio was 11.11. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.71, with no profitability data [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 29, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 1410, - 1440, - 1430, and - 1500 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 544, 986, 1437, and 1888 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 0, 25, 40, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 165, - 125, - 110, and - 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 336, 455, and 573 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 170, - 160, - 160, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 321, 430, and 539 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1500, - 1320, - 1100, and - 800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 940, and the theoretical spread was 5858 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 515 and - 895 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 415 and 695 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 276 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 300 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 181 and 295 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 29, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.89, 4.11, 5.01, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (triple - continuous) were 3.61, 3.81, 5.45, 0.95, 1.43, and 0.66 respectively [5]
备战新品种 | 月均价期货上市策略前瞻
对冲研投· 2025-10-28 11:31
Core Viewpoint - The introduction of monthly average price futures for three chemical products fills a gap in domestic average price risk management tools, facilitating smoother price fluctuations and better risk management for enterprises in international trade [4][5]. Group 1: Monthly Average Price Futures - The monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting from October 28, 2025, with night trading sessions [5]. - The listing benchmark prices for the contracts are based on the settlement prices on the listing date [5][7]. Group 2: Market Trends for Polyethylene and Polypropylene - The bearish trend for plastic and polypropylene futures continues, driven by declining cost support, new supply capacity, and insufficient demand [8]. - The price decline began in late November to early December 2024, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and subsequent destocking cycles [8]. - Despite a rebound in oil prices, the prices of plastic and polypropylene futures face technical pressure and have entered a downward trend again by the end of August [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - For polyethylene, rapid growth in domestic production due to capacity expansion is expected to persist throughout the year, with seasonal demand peaks in October [9]. - In polypropylene, while there is still strong demand in October, the seasonal demand decline is anticipated in November and December, with new capacity pressures expected to ease in the fourth quarter [9]. - Overall, both polyethylene and polypropylene prices are expected to remain in a bearish market, with short-term support from demand and geopolitical factors, but fundamental supply-demand pressures will likely lead to a "rise then fall" price trend [9]. Group 4: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, with social inventory at historical highs [13]. - Despite ongoing losses in the PVC industry, some manufacturers are increasing production, with a projected increase of 220,000 tons this year [16]. - The PVC market faces potential export pressures due to anti-dumping measures from India, which could significantly impact future exports [17][18].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月28日)-20251028
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:09
1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest trading day's (October 27, 2025) and historical (October 21 - 24, 2025) data on various futures varieties, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads, for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. The data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice [56]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows that the basis on October 21 was - 39.4 yuan/ton, which gradually increased to - 31.4 yuan/ton on October 27. The spreads between different contract months (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on basis, ratio, and other indicators are provided for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from October 21 - 27, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 27 was 55.04 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1414 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows fluctuations. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from - 850 yuan/ton on October 21 to - 630 yuan/ton on October 27 [9]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from October 21 - 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 27 was 2273 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was 61.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from October 21 - 27, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 27 was 3.96 [20]. - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of rebar on October 27 was 130.0 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows significant fluctuations. For example, the basis of copper changed from 250 yuan/ton on October 21 to - 70 yuan/ton on October 27 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (25.97) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans (No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows changes. For example, the basis of soybeans (No. 1) on October 27 was - 97 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans (No. 1) was 40 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as soybean (No. 1)/corn, soybean (No. 2)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 21 - 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean (No. 1)/corn ratio on October 27 was 1.93 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 21 - 27, 2025, shows fluctuations. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 27 was 31.62 [50]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 14.8 [50].
有色套利早报-20251028
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 28, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, ratios, equilibrium ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 28, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88210, LME spot price was 11036, with a ratio of 7.94; the domestic March price was 88360, LME March price was 11060, with a ratio of 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.07, and the profit was - 797.43 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22210, LME spot price was 3251, with a ratio of 6.83; the domestic March price was 22390, LME March price was 3039, with a ratio of 5.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, and the profit was - 5375.30 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21160, LME spot price was 2890, with a ratio of 7.32; the domestic March price was 21380, LME March price was 2887, with a ratio of 7.36. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the profit was - 2886.43 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124400, LME spot price was 15155, with a ratio of 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was - 1527.44 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17275, LME spot price was 1984, with a ratio of 8.70; the domestic March price was 17525, LME March price was 2018, with a ratio of 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the profit was - 49.75 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 670, 660, 680, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 541, 979, 1427, and 1874 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50, 75, 110, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 155, 175, 175, and 175, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 335, 453, and 571 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 115, - 110, - 120, and - 190, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 322, 432, and 541 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 540, 700, 870, and 1080 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 200, and the theoretical spread was 5928 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were - 485 and 185, and the theoretical spreads were 287 and 872 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 105 and 155, and the theoretical spreads were 153 and 302 [5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 360 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 309 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.95, 4.13, 5.04, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.60, 3.82, 5.44, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 [5].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025年10月27日):一、动力煤-20251027
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:27
Report Overview The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for October 27, 2025, covering multiple sectors including thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report mainly presents the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads data of various futures products from October 20 to October 24, 2025, without a clear core view statement. 3. Summary by Category Thermal Coal - **Basis Data**: The basis data for thermal coal from October 20 to October 24, 2025, shows values ranging from - 45.4 to - 31.4 yuan/ton, and the inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are all 0 [1][2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities Basis**: For energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt, the basis data from October 20 to October 24, 2025, is presented, along with their respective ratios [7]. - **Chemical Commodities Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from October 20 to October 24, 2025, shows different values. For example, the basis of rubber ranges from - 850 to - 585 yuan/ton [9]. - **Chemical Commodities Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 70 yuan/ton [10]. - **Chemical Commodities Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from October 20 to October 24, 2025, are given. For example, on October 24, 2025, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2266 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Black Metals Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 61 yuan/ton [19]. - **Black Metals Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., from October 20 to October 24, 2025, are provided. For example, on October 24, 2025, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.96 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market Basis**: The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 20 to October 24, 2025, is shown. For example, the basis of copper ranges from 250 to - 1300 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market Data**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, etc.) on October 24, 2025, are provided [31]. Agricultural Products - **Agricultural Products Basis**: The basis data for soybeans (first - grade and second - grade), soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 20 to October 24, 2025, is presented. For example, the basis of first - grade soybeans ranges from - 133 to - 124 yuan/ton [37]. - **Agricultural Products Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) for soybeans, soybean meal, etc., are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of first - grade soybeans is 30 yuan/ton [37]. - **Agricultural Products Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybeans (first - grade)/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 20 to October 24, 2025, are given. For example, on October 24, 2025, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.78 [36]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 20 to October 24, 2025, is shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 ranges from 25.54 to 31.42 [48]. - **Stock Index Futures Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 41.6 [50].