行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2025 年 07 月 21 日 电力负荷创新高，旺季动力煤价有 望持续上涨；铁水产量高位，产量 受限，焦煤价预计持续反弹。 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.7.12-2025.7.18） 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 7 月 18 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 511、581、642 元/吨，环比上涨 13、12、10 元/吨。供给 端，据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 174.34 万吨，环比上周减少 2. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by high temperatures and a recovering supply from major production areas [2][59] - The report highlights that the focus should be on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE), as well as those with attractive valuations and dividend yields [60] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal closing at 644 RMB/ton on July 18, an increase of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][12] - Coking coal prices have also risen, with Shanxi coking coal reaching 1420 RMB/ton, up 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][32] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is tightening, with June imports down 26% year-on-year [2][59] - Daily consumption of thermal coal has increased, with coastal provinces averaging 222.3 million tons per day, a week-on-week increase of 3.5 million tons [17][21] 3. Price Trends - The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 666 RMB/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3][12] - The coking coal price index is at 1111 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42 RMB/ton, while the cost index is at 1286 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 175 RMB/ton [37][38] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a combination of companies including Shanxi Coal International, Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others for investment [2][60] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific stocks showing varied performance [54][60]

智通财经7月18日电，据新华社，进入7月，受高温天气等因素影响，辽宁电力负荷快速攀升，最大电力 负荷呈现"三级跳"，接连突破4000万千瓦、4100万千瓦、4200万千瓦，连续创下历史新高。记者近日在 辽宁各地走访了解到，当前，电力部门正全力做好全网资源配置，提升预测能力和精度，统筹电力与电 量、电源与电网、新能源与常规能源，滚动开展电力平衡分析，确保电网稳定运行和电力可靠供应。 电力负荷连创新高 辽宁多向发力迎峰度夏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively enhancing energy supply security in response to the ongoing high-temperature weather, ensuring stable electricity supply and supporting economic operations during peak summer demand. Group 1: Energy Supply Measures - China Huaneng is prioritizing energy security by implementing multiple strategies, including equipment reliability management, fuel supply enhancement, and emergency response measures to ensure stable electricity supply during peak summer demand [1] - Huaneng Shandong Company has been operating 56 coal-fired units at full capacity, achieving a daily electricity generation of approximately 300 million kilowatt-hours, playing a crucial role in the province's energy supply [1] - The Huaneng Binzhou 850,000-kilowatt solar project has generated over 6.22 million kilowatt-hours in a single day and over 125 million kilowatt-hours in a month, contributing significantly to renewable energy supply [1] Group 2: Operational Strategies - Huaneng Shandong is utilizing drone technology for equipment inspections and monitoring temperature changes in critical components to ensure stable green electricity supply [1] - Huaneng Gansu Company has all 28 units of its thermal power plants operational, enhancing clean energy output through a smart operation platform that monitors the status of various energy sources [2] - Huaneng Gansu's coal inventory is sufficient for over 30 days, ensuring stable power generation and supply [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Emergency Preparedness - Huaneng Northern Company is conducting comprehensive risk assessments and implementing a full-process tracking system for safety measures, with a total electricity generation of over 4.19 billion kilowatt-hours from July 1 to 15 [3] - Huaneng Inner Mongolia is enhancing transportation safety and emergency response capabilities in anticipation of extreme weather events, ensuring the stability of the electric and thermal power systems [4] - Huaneng Luohuang Power Plant is optimizing coal procurement and management strategies to maintain adequate fuel supply during peak summer and flood prevention periods [4] Group 4: Response to High Electricity Demand - Jiangsu's electricity grid has reached a record high load of 152 million kilowatts due to high temperatures, with Huaneng's compressed air energy storage plant adapting its operation to meet peak demand [6]

7月16日，武汉持续高温，但在位于武汉经开区的武汉海尔空调生产车间内，生产的热度更胜一筹。四条总装柔性生产线全速运转， 机械臂精准挥舞，传送带高速流转，平均每8秒就有一台空调下线。18000台——这是工厂每天向酷暑递交的"清凉答卷"。 编辑：胡之澜 供电公司员工用红外测温仪对低压柜的电缆发热情况进行测量。 在厂区10千伏配电房，武汉经开区供电公司客户经理吴杰、马彩莲正用红外测温仪检测变压器运行状态。"电缆温度56℃，在安全阈值 内。"他和同事每周三次上门服务，将电网维护从产权分界点延伸至企业内部设备。 海尔空调生产线"火力全开"，企业确保高效运转和员工健康。 "175名电力人员24小时轮值，300余人抢修队伍随时待命。"区供电公司营销运营及稽查检查班班长吕国昭介绍，武汉经开区组建了"迎 峰度夏"应急工作专班，全体领导和中层岗位人员24小时在岗值班，建立"企业—园区—部门"三级响应机制，确保企业用电无忧。 "全国多地持续高温，空调订单量同比上涨了33%。"工厂负责人王雷指着实时数据屏介绍，订单就是命令，已经全员进入"战时状 态"。为保障生产效率和员工健康，工厂采取了一系列措施：不仅将中央空调直吹每个工位，还每日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].

▲国网浦城县供电公司工作人员安装合金线夹。 入夏以来，浦城县持续高温，用电负荷不断攀升。为确保辖区电网安全可靠运行，该公 司坚持"抓早、抓紧、抓实、抓细、抓好"工作理念，提前部署，制定详细的迎峰度夏保供电 方案。加强对重点线路和设备的巡检维护，及时发现并消除潜在隐患，切实把安全风险"控 制在小、解决在早"。加强抢修运维人员24小时应急值班，确保突发情况能够快速响应行。 同时，加快推进电网升级改造工程，全力保障电网安全稳定运行。 下一步，该公司将继续加强电网运维管理，优化供电服务，确保迎峰度夏期间电力供应 安全、稳定、可靠，为社会经济发展和居民生活用电保驾护航。 （叶凌云 吴静怡/文 叶凌云/图） 【责任编辑：刘澄谚 】 7月11日，国网浦城县供电公司城区供电站、闽延建设浦城分公司带电作业人员在用 户"零感知"、用电"零影响"的情况下，对10千伏兴浦线14号杆缺陷隐患开展带电消缺作业， 切实提升辖区群众用电质量及供电可靠性，为迎峰度夏提供坚强电力保障。 据了解，该公司城区供电站员工在测温巡视时，发现10千伏兴浦线14号杆杆刀闸至开关 引线异常发热，存在安全隐患。为不影响该线路上1200多户用户的正常生产生活用电 ...

Report Title - "Jiaoxin Futures Daily" and "Analysis of the Reasons, Impacts, and Outlook for the Rise in Coking Coal Futures Prices" [1][2] Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, coking coal futures prices rose due to supply tightening and increased demand. The price increase will raise steel production costs and may push up steel prices, while also boosting market confidence in the coal industry and attracting more capital inflows. Opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks should be grasped [3] - A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is in an adjustment phase but the long - term upward trend remains. Iron ore, glass, and methanol have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [6][10][21] Industry Analysis Coking Coal Industry - Supply: Main production areas have tightened safety inspections, with over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia shut down for rectification in June. It is expected that production will decrease by 1.2 billion tons per year. The implementation of the "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 raised the coal mine production capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit. The supply of high - quality primary coking coal is tight, and spot prices have risen by 50 yuan/ton [3] - Demand: During the "peak summer power consumption period", national high - temperature warnings are frequent. The daily power plant consumption has exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate has rebounded to 82%, a new high for the year. The daily hot metal production has rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant operating rate is 73%. Steel mills' passive inventory replenishment has increased short - term demand [3] A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened flat and moved higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the late session and then falling back. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [6] Gold Market - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to reach new highs. It is advisable to buy on dips [10][11] Iron Ore Market - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and hot metal production remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it showed a rise and then a fall today but did not break below the support, so a bullish view is maintained [14][15] Glass Market - The supply side has not seen a significant loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories remain high, downstream deep - processing orders have weak inventory replenishment motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it rose and then fell today but the lower support is effective, so a bullish view is maintained. It is still waiting for the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] Methanol Market - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. This week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate, with 177,200 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period. A short - position strategy with a light position is recommended [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the near future, but the upside is limited. The peak summer electricity - coal demand is strong, and the middle and lower - stream inventories are gradually decreasing, which drives the coal price to rise slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the coal price rebound [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Supply Side The end of the national safety production month allows the coal mines with production suspension and limitation in the main production areas to resume production after rectification, leading to a slight increase in thermal coal supply [4]. Demand Side Since July, the domestic temperature has further risen, especially in some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang where the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in good residential cooling demand during the peak - summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that in July 2025, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and the precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region will be more than normal, with 20% - 50% more precipitation in most parts of Yunnan. There is room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [4]. Port Inventory As of July 3, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress the coal price [4].

来源：Wind 煤炭ETF（515220）7月10日收涨1.77%，日K线角度录得三根阳线，近4个交易日大额资金连续流入。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，聚焦全国统一大市场建设推进工作，明确提出"五统一、一开放"的纵深建 设基本要求。会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调要加快建立健全基础制度规则，破除地方保护和市场分割，打通市场 准入退出、要素配置等方面制约经济循环的卡点堵点，对"内卷式"竞争开展综合整治。 7月5日，中国天气网报道"今年以来最强高温过程持续影响，多地闷热贯穿全天"。在副热带高压控制下，我国正经历 今年以来最强高温过程，7月4日进入本次过程的鼎盛时段。在高温影响下，居民制冷用电负荷或将显著提升，从而带 动火电需求走高，电厂耗煤提升，采购力度加大，煤价上涨，迎峰度夏的旺季终至。 年初至今，动力煤煤价已累计下跌146元/吨；焦煤跌幅更高达290元/吨。由于煤价的持续下行，今年1~5月，煤炭行业 实现利润总额同比下滑幅度超50%。对于煤炭行业，"反内卷"是应对产能过剩、价格恶化和可持续发展瓶颈的系统性 纠偏行动。 本轮"反内卷"和历史上去产能有何不同？2016年2月1日，国务院下发《关于煤炭行 ...