Core Viewpoint - The National Restaurant Association has urged the U.S. government to reconsider proposed tariffs on food and beverage imports, highlighting significant potential losses for the restaurant industry [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - A proposed 30% tariff on food and beverage imports from Mexico and Canada could result in a loss of $15.16 billion for the U.S. restaurant industry [1] - Small businesses may face a profit loss of 35% due to these tariffs [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - The association expressed concerns over potential tariffs on imports from Brazil and the European Union, which could exacerbate supply chain pressures [1] - Increased costs for essential items such as coffee, beef, wine, and spirits are anticipated if these tariffs are implemented [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting from August 1 [1] Group 2 - The announcement was made public on the White House website on July 30 [1] - This tariff is part of the broader trade policy measures being implemented by the U.S. government [1] - The decision may impact various industries that rely on copper imports, potentially leading to increased costs for manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that former President Trump will evaluate the implementation of a phased 15% universal import tariff on refined copper starting January 1, 2027 [1] Group 1 - The potential tariff aims to address trade imbalances and support domestic copper production [1] - The decision reflects ongoing discussions about trade policies and their impact on the U.S. economy [1] - The evaluation process will consider the implications for both consumers and industries reliant on refined copper [1]

"美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos文章称，美联储对其政策声明几乎未作改动，表明无意暗示可能降息。美 联储官员们将基准政策利率维持在4.25%至4.5%的区间，以权衡进口商、零售商和消费者将如何分担进 口关税上调带来的成本。关于谁将承担关税负担的激烈争论的结果将决定今年晚些时候通胀和就业的走 势，并可能决定央行在未来几个月是否以及何时恢复降息。 ...

Core Insights - In June, U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined, indicating a slowdown in equipment investment as the effects of preemptive purchasing before tariff increases faded [1] - The month-over-month change in non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell by 0.7%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.2% [1] - The May data was revised upward to a growth of 2.0% [1] Equipment Investment Trends - Core capital goods shipments increased by 0.4% in June, down from 0.5% in May [1] - Some businesses are beginning to delay capital expenditure plans due to heightened uncertainty regarding the final levels of tariffs [1] Manufacturing Sector Outlook - A survey by S&P Global indicated that the preliminary manufacturing PMI for July fell into contraction for the first time since December of the previous year [1] - S&P noted that while import tariffs provided some protective effects, rising prices and increased costs have become greater concerns for businesses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. remained largely flat month-on-month, primarily due to a decline in service costs, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased costs from rising import tariffs [1] Group 1: PPI and CPI Data - The PPI report follows the June CPI data, which shows that higher tariffs are gradually being passed on to various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products [1] - Despite a generally mild inflation rate this year, many economists expect inflation to gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset higher trade costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy stalemate of the Federal Reserve is likely to persist due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and inflation data [1] Inflation Data Analysis - Recent inflation data has not alleviated uncertainties stemming from tariffs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - The housing price index has shown a slight decline, indicating a potential downward trend in inflation [1] - However, prices of certain goods potentially affected by import tariffs have seen an acceleration in their price increases [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - The analyst believes that without the uncertainties related to tariffs, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would likely have enough confidence to begin lowering interest rates [1] - The current policy stalemate is expected to continue until the situation becomes clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the negative impact of tariffs, Ericsson's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations due to increased sales in high-profit countries, rising licensing revenues, and cost reductions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the second quarter was 45.7 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 4.752 billion USD), surpassing FactSet analysts' forecast of 33.9 billion Swedish Krona [1] - Overall sales in the main network business declined by 5.3% in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Strong growth was observed in the North American market, while the European market showed slight growth [1] - Sales in the Indian market experienced a significant decline, attributed to low levels of network investment in the region [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CEO expressed optimism about continued growth in the Americas and stabilization in Europe [1] - The company noted that future uncertainties may increase, including potential changes in tariffs and broader macroeconomic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, aimed at revitalizing the domestic metal industry and reversing the decline in U.S. copper market influence [1][5]. Policy Implementation - Specific details regarding the implementation of the copper tariff, such as the method of collection, product scope, and potential supplier exemptions, remain unclear, leaving metal traders awaiting further clarification [3]. - The announcement has already influenced copper futures, which surged to historical highs before slightly retreating, maintaining a 1.40% increase at $5.6200 per pound [3]. Industry Context - The copper tariff is part of a broader series of industrial policies by the Trump administration, which has previously raised tariffs on steel and aluminum, with indications of more industry-specific tariffs in preparation [5]. - The U.S. heavily relies on copper imports, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico, despite copper being the second most used strategic metal by the Department of Defense [5]. - In anticipation of the tariff's impact, U.S. producers and traders are adjusting their supply chains, with some shifting delivery locations to Hawaii and Puerto Rico to shorten shipping times [5]. - Since the initial proposal of the copper tariff in February, U.S. metal imports have reached record highs as traders seek to capitalize on price differences before the tariff takes effect [5].