Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The central bank and six other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization". The weekly output of hot - rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, at a relatively high level; apparent demand recovered, and inventory increased slightly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is resilient, combined with the high prices of coal and coke, providing cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rebounding upwards. Operationally, short - term long positions can be considered on pullbacks, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,451 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan; the main contract position was 1,460,175 lots, a decrease of 1,559 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 79,258 lots, a decrease of 16,464 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was - 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. - The HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 70,915 tons, an increase of 14,917 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,510 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [3]. - The HC main contract basis was 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, a decrease of 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, a decrease of 35,200 tons [3]. - The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, an increase of 41,000 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points [3]. - The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 3.2279 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 82.46%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points [3]. - The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil inventory was 793,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.6865 million tons, an increase of 14,900 tons [3]. - The domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a decrease of 3.36 million tons; the net steel export volume was 9.21 million tons, a decrease of 890,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, an increase of 145,600 vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, an increase of 218,100 vehicles [3]. - The monthly air - conditioner production was 28.3831 million units, a decrease of 1.0969 million units; the monthly household refrigerator production was 9.0474 million units, an increase of 537,400 units [3]. - The monthly household washing machine production was 9.5079 million units, an increase of 95,900 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% increase in daily output month - on - month [3]. - The Passenger Car Association raised its full - year sales forecast for 2025, expecting 24.35 million passenger car retail sales in 2025, a 6% year - on - year increase, and the forecast volume was 300,000 units more than the June forecast [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The actual tin ore output from Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. In July, the increase in smelting output was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has decreased. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream enterprises are still in the traditional consumption off - season, with overall orders being rather dull. The recent high prices have suppressed the restocking sentiment of downstream enterprises. The spot premium has slightly dropped to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the battle around the M60 line. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 266,940 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,300 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts for Shanghai tin is - 470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract position for Shanghai tin is 24,719 lots, down 1,669 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is 193 lots, up 184 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,875 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,671 tons, up 254 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 485 tons, down 25 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,358 tons, up 75 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 267,820 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 660 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 42 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 252,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 256,600 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate (Antaike) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,790 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, may choose the chairman through the vacancy of governors, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India. The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The ISM services PMI is close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that if the non - farm data deteriorates further, the Fed may cut interest rates aggressively by 50 basis points in September, with the terminal interest rate at 3% or lower. The central bank and other seven departments will provide financial support for new industrialization and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2].

国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》明确，从2025年秋季学期起，免除公办幼儿园 学前一年在园儿童保育教育费，不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等。同时，民办幼儿园也可享受与公办幼儿 园"同等"减免水平，高出免除水平的部分可继续向在园儿童家庭收取。 简评：逐步推行免费学前教育是涉及千家万户、事关长远发展的重要惠民举措。与近期落地的育儿补贴 类似，政策再聚焦免费学前教育，将有助于降低育儿成本，进而更好激发消费潜力、提升市场活力。往 后看，更多育儿利好配套政策有望出台，如进一步完善教育、医疗、住房、就业等配套服务等。 央行等七部门联合印发金融支持新型工业化指导意见，坚持分类施策、有扶有控，推动产业加快迈向中 高端，防止"内卷式"竞争。《意见》明确，到2027年建成适配制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展的成 熟金融体系，推动贷款、债券、股权等工具联动发力。 简评：工业是立国之本，是经济社会高质量发展的基石。《意见》对于金融支持新型工业化提出了总体 要求，通过对照新型工业化重点任务，构建全覆盖、差异化、专业性金融服务体系，形成了金融支持新 型工业化的清晰路径，进而增强金融支持新型工业化的强度、精度、效度。 【博时市 ...

监管 01 央行等七部门：支持银行通过重组、核销、转让等方式，依法合规加大企业不良贷款处置力度 8月5日讯，央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。 《意见》提到，推动金融机构落实国家产业政策要求，强化信贷风险管理和资金用途监控，防范套取和挪用风 险，助力防止"内卷式"竞争。支持银行通过重组、核销、转让等方式，依法合规加大企业不良贷款处置力度。 银行 02 上海银行董事长任职资格获核准 8月5日讯，上海银行（601229.SH）公告称，近日该行收到批复，国家金融监督管理总局上海监管局已核准顾建 忠该行董事、董事长的任职资格。 03 湖南湘江新区农村商业银行被罚117.04万元 8月5日讯，中国人民银行湖南省分行公布的行政处罚决定信息显示，湖南湘江新区农村商业银行因"1.提供虚假的 或隐瞒重要事实的统计资料；2.违规开立单位银行结算账户；3.未按规定备案银行结算账户；4.未按规定收缴假 币；5.未按规定将假币解缴中国人民银行分支机构；6.相关人员不具备反假专业能力；7.未按规定为公众兑换污损 人民币；8.占压财政存款或者资金；9.提供个人不良信息，未事先告知信息主体本人；10.未按规定开展客户 ...

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨包芳鸣 金融支持新型工业化路线图出炉。 招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼告诉记者，《意见》强调加强金融支持新型工业 化能力建设，从金融机构内部机制完善、各类金融工具协同、人才队伍建设等方面提出要求，切中了关 键问题和症结，将推动金融机构进一步健全资源配置机制、风险管理机制、综合服务机制、考核评价机 制，促进金融机构、金融管理部门和行业、企业在政策制定、人才培养等方面加强合作，共同提升金融 服务新型工业化效能。 金融支持新型工业化重点环节 《意见》从支持提升产业科技创新能力和产业链供应链韧性、支持加快建设现代化产业体系、支持产业 合理布局和拓展发展空间、加强金融支持新型工业化能力建设、加强金融政策和产业政策协同联动等5 方面，提出了18条具体措施。 苏商银行特约研究员薛洪言告诉记者，在众多政策举措中，他最关注三项政策部署。一是实施"科技产 业金融一体化"专项，通过硬科技属性评价体系和"千帆百舸"上市培育计划，打通社会资本流向硬科技 领域的"最后一公里"，让更多实验室里的创新成果能快速走向产业化。 二是探索产业链金融的"脱核"服务模式，借助全国中小微企业资金流信用信息共享平台，使 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, along with several government departments, has issued guidelines to support the new type of industrialization through financial means, aiming to enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector and promote its transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [1][2][9] Financial Support for Industrialization - The guidelines aim for a mature financial system by 2027 that supports the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry, with a focus on increasing the number and scale of bond issuances and equity financing [1][2] - Emphasis is placed on market-oriented and legal principles, with a focus on preventing excessive competition while promoting industrial upgrades [1][2] Enhancing Technological Innovation and Supply Chain Resilience - The guidelines prioritize enhancing technological innovation capabilities and supply chain resilience, proposing specific measures for key industries such as integrated circuits and medical equipment [2][3] - A "technology-industry-finance integration" plan is introduced to guide social capital towards early-stage hard technology projects [2] Supporting Traditional Industry Upgrades - Financial institutions are encouraged to optimize credit policies to support the transformation of traditional manufacturing industries towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [4] - The guidelines advocate for diverse financial support for digital transformation, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [4] Green and Low-Carbon Transition - The guidelines highlight the importance of establishing a financial standard system to support the green and low-carbon transition of high-carbon industries, promoting green credit and green bonds [5] - Financial institutions are encouraged to utilize technologies like big data and AI to enhance service efficiency in the digital economy [5][6] Policy Coordination and Implementation Assurance - The guidelines call for improved financial services for industrial transfers and enhanced cross-border financial service convenience [7][8] - A cross-departmental coordination mechanism is proposed to ensure effective implementation of the guidelines, with a focus on risk prevention and monitoring [8] Long-term Financial Mechanism Development - The implementation of the guidelines is expected to create a batch of internationally competitive manufacturing enterprises, facilitating China's transition from a manufacturing giant to a manufacturing power [9] - A market-oriented long-term mechanism is needed to enhance the interaction between finance and industry, ensuring that market forces play a decisive role in resource allocation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Based on fundamental analysis, the report classifies various futures products into trend空头 (downward trend), 震荡偏空 (slightly bearish with oscillations), 震荡 (sideways movement), 震荡偏多 (slightly bullish with oscillations), and 趋势多头 (upward trend). For example, liquefied petroleum gas is in the 震荡偏空 category, while CSI 500 stock index futures are in the 震荡偏多 category [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, products are categorized as 偏空 (bearish), 震荡 (sideways), and 偏多 (bullish). For instance, sugar is classified as 偏空, while lead futures are 偏多 [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments for multiple futures products based on fundamental and quantitative analyses, and offers trading strategies and market outlooks for each product. It also analyzes macro - economic information and its impact on the futures market [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to follow the short - term strong trend. A - shares showed a strong performance, and with the release of policies and market expectations, the index rebounded after a pull - back, suggesting a continuation of the trend - following approach [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Consider a steepening strategy in the short - term and short long - term bonds. The central bank's open - market operations and the performance of the stock and commodity markets affect the bond market, and there is a possibility of the bond market weakening under the pressure of stocks and commodities [13]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Ore**: The black market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. Demand may seasonally weaken, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are likely to oscillate between the cost of valley - electricity and flat - electricity [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation phase. Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. It is recommended to consider strategies such as going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or conducting reverse arbitrage between near - and far - month contracts of silicomanganese. In the long - term, a bearish approach is appropriate [17]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy when prices are high and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere returns. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market needs to digest speculative inventory [18]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term. For alumina, there is room for the basis to repair, and it is advisable to go long on the basis in the short - term. In the long - term, due to supply - demand imbalances, it is recommended to short alumina at high prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Social zinc inventories are increasing, and with the recovery of smelter production and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current tight - balance fundamentals support prices, and the short - term decline is limited. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contradiction lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream policies and supply - side policies [24]. - **Polysilicon**: The policy expectation has cooled, and the price may return to the fundamentals and warehouse - receipt game. The supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether policies can stimulate terminal demand [25][26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure to oscillate and rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but supply concerns support prices. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand factors [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar supply and the decline in import costs. However, the expected demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may limit the decline [28][29]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract price of eggs has reached a historical low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the upside is limited. It is advisable to wait and see, and be cautious when considering bottom - fishing [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples and the price of old - season apples [34]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The supply and demand sides are under pressure, but there is also support from policies. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy implementation [35]. - **Red Dates**: It is advisable to wait and see. The production is still in dispute, and the market is oscillating [36]. - **Pigs**: It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term [36][37]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is worried about oil demand due to the downward revision of US economic data. OPEC+ is increasing supply, and the long - term trend is towards a supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to US secondary sanctions on Russia and the summer demand [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: There is no clear main - line logic for oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate between 70 and 65 dollars, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil prices [39]. - **Plastic**: The market sentiment is unstable, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak [41]. - **Rubber**: In the short - term, rubber prices may oscillate slightly stronger. It is advisable to short - long after a pull - back and be cautious when chasing high prices [42]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices follow the overall commodity trend and are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand are weak, and the port inventory is increasing [43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply in Shandong is at a high level, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [44]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no clear main - line logic, and the asphalt market is in a seasonal transition period with slow inventory reduction [45][46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is still weak. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately, but not to increase short positions aggressively. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices, and the supply and demand are not favorable [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the long - term. The price is likely to fall [48]. - **Pulp**: The main - contract sentiment is cooling, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [49]. - **Logs**: The spot price has increased, and the basis is being chased. There is some hedging space, and it is advisable to observe and consider hedging at high prices [50]. - **Urea**: The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [50].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the futures market, some commodities are experiencing price fluctuations, and the market sentiment is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international economic data [4][6][7]. - In the A - share market, the index is on a stable upward trend, and the market's attractiveness is increasing. However, further upward breakthrough may require new catalysts [17]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Futures Market - **Chemical Futures**: On August 6, 2025, in the chemical futures market, natural rubber and soda ash had significant price increases, with natural rubber rising 6.291% to 15,460.00 and soda ash rising 6.137% to 1,349.00. While crude oil, asphalt, and other varieties declined, with crude oil dropping 1.238% to 502.50 [4]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Among agricultural futures, rapeseed meal and yellow corn had price increases, with rapeseed meal rising 0.844% to 2,747.00 and yellow corn rising 0.445% to 2,259.00. Palm oil and other varieties declined, with palm oil dropping 0.750% to 8,996.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - **Domestic Policies**: The State Council has introduced a series of policies, including gradually promoting free pre - school education, implementing personal and service industry loan interest - subsidy policies, and the China Real Estate Association providing services for small and medium - sized real estate enterprises. Seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization [6][7]. - **International News**: The US trade deficit in June decreased significantly, and the ISM non - manufacturing index in July declined. Trump criticized Powell, planned to raise tariffs on India, and may announce drug and chip tariffs. The US may ban banks from terminating customer services due to political stances or cryptocurrency business [6][7][8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views - **Agricultural Products**: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be strongly volatile but still on a downward trend. The oil market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly volatile. The sugar market is under supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market is bearish in the short term. The pig market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The egg market suggests short - selling. The cotton market is weakly volatile [10][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The urea price is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to export and coal price changes. The caustic soda price is expected to be weakly adjusted. The coking coal and coke prices are strongly volatile. [11][12] - **Industrial Metals**: The copper price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust at a high level. The alumina price is adjusting at a high level. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term and has upward momentum in the medium term. The ferroalloy market is affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The lithium carbonate price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. - **Options and Finance**: The A - share market rose on August 5, 2025. The index is on a stable upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC. For options, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short - sell volatility [15][17].

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