Group 1 - The article highlights signs of deposits moving towards the stock market since May, driven by factors such as increased M1 growth and a shift in deposit trends [1] - M1 growth reached 5.6% year-on-year in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a trend of deposit activation [1] - There is a notable increase in the popularity of equity funds, with a slowdown in fixed-income wealth management products compared to last year [1][9] Group 2 - The capital market has become more active, with daily trading volumes in A-shares exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August [2] - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% in July compared to May, although it remains below the peak in October of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The article discusses the sources of deposits, including fiscal spending and international balance of payments, which have contributed to deposit creation [15] - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation rose from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit decreased from 73% to 41% [15][23] Group 4 - Factors driving the movement of deposits to the stock market include improved risk appetite due to government stimulus policies and a recovery in stock market returns [31] - The average return on A-shares over the past 12 months has reached around 20%, prompting a shift in investment strategies [31][33] Group 5 - The potential for deposits to move into the stock market is estimated at 5-7 trillion yuan, based on excess savings, maturing deposits, and the activation of deposits [45][46] - The article notes that the actual movement of deposits will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external factors [45][46] Group 6 - The shift of deposits to the stock market is expected to benefit banks by expanding interest margins and improving the outlook for credit demand [48] - The article suggests that while the stock market's attractiveness may reduce the appeal of high-dividend yields, it remains attractive for long-term funds [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for residents' deposits to shift towards the stock market, highlighting signs of this trend emerging since May 2023, driven by various economic factors and changes in investor behavior [2][30]. Group 1: Signs of Deposit Migration - Since May 2023, there have been indications of deposits moving towards the stock market, including an increase in M1 growth from 2.3% in May to 5.6% in July, suggesting a trend of deposit activation [2]. - The growth of fixed-income wealth management products has slowed compared to last year, while equity mutual funds and private securities investment funds have seen a rebound in growth [2]. - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion yuan in July, indicating that deposits may be entering brokerage margin accounts in preparation for market entry [2][9]. Group 2: Capital Market Activity - Since August 2023, the A-share market has seen daily trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in trading activity and a financing balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan [3]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% from May to July, although it remains below the peak levels seen in October 2022 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Deposit Creation - The article estimates that residents have accumulated approximately 5 trillion yuan in "excess savings" from 2022 to 2024, which could potentially be used for investment [14]. - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation has risen from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit has decreased from 73% to 41% [14]. - The weakening of financial disintermediation has led to a significant outflow of deposits from fixed-income products back into the banking system, contributing to the recent increase in deposits [15]. Group 4: Motivations for Deposit Migration - Improved risk appetite among residents, driven by government stimulus policies and positive economic expectations, has led to a shift in investment behavior towards the stock market [30]. - The current environment of weak returns from major risk assets like real estate and stocks has prompted funds to flow into higher-yielding investments, with the A-share market showing a 12-month average return of around 20% [30]. - The weakening of the US dollar has facilitated the return of overseas funds to the Chinese stock market, as investors seek better returns domestically [31]. Group 5: Potential for Deposit Migration - The potential for deposits to migrate to the stock market is estimated at around 5-7 trillion yuan, which could exceed the amounts seen during previous market rallies in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 [42]. - The upcoming maturity of approximately 70 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits in 2025 may drive residents to seek higher-yielding assets, as the re-pricing of these deposits will result in lower interest rates [40]. - The activation of deposits, driven by a favorable economic environment, could lead to an additional net increase of around 5 trillion yuan in resident demand deposits, which may also flow into the stock market [41].

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2024, China's total asset management scale is expected to reach 150 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth across various asset management sectors despite regulatory challenges and a shift towards financial disintermediation [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Development of Asset Management - The asset management industry in China has evolved significantly since the introduction of bank wealth management products in 2004, with key milestones including the rise of trust companies in 2011 and the implementation of the Asset Management New Regulations in 2018 [2]. - The industry has transitioned from rapid growth to a more regulated and transparent environment, with the establishment of wealth management subsidiaries and a focus on compliance since 2019 [2][5]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the total asset management scale in China is projected to be 157.04 trillion yuan, marking a 13.09% increase from the previous year, the highest growth rate since the introduction of the new regulations [5][6]. - The trust sector has shown the highest growth rate at 23.58%, closely followed by public funds at 20.39% and insurance at 15.08%, while bank wealth management grew by 11.75% [5][6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Bank Wealth Management - By the end of 2024, bank wealth management is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan, reflecting a recovery from previous declines due to market volatility [9][10]. - The share of bank wealth management in the overall asset management market has decreased from 38.91% in 2012 to 19.07% in 2024, as other sectors like public funds and insurance have gained traction [10]. Trust Sector - The trust industry experienced significant contraction from 2018 to 2020 but has since rebounded, with a notable increase in scale and a shift towards more diversified and professional asset management services [14][15]. Public Funds - Public funds have grown from 846 million yuan in 2000 to 32.83 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, benefiting from favorable market conditions and the shift towards net asset value-based products [16][17]. Insurance Asset Management - Insurance asset management has shown steady growth, reaching over 30 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a market share increase from 11.46% in 2016 to 21.18% in 2024 [18][19]. Securities Asset Management - The securities asset management sector has faced significant declines since 2018, with a 7.76% drop in 2024, reflecting the impact of regulatory changes and a shift away from traditional channel-based business models [20][21].

Core Insights - The asset management industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total scale reaching 157.04 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a 13.09% increase from the previous year, the highest since the implementation of the new asset management regulations [6][8][12] - The growth is driven by a shift in investor behavior, as lower bank deposit rates and regulatory changes have led to a "financial disintermediation" effect, with substantial inflows into wealth management products, insurance, and public funds [1][6][9] Group 1: Historical Context and Regulatory Changes - The asset management industry has evolved significantly since the introduction of bank wealth management products in 2004, with key milestones including the rise of trust companies and the implementation of the new asset management regulations in 2018 [2][4] - The new regulations aimed to standardize the industry, eliminate shadow banking, and promote transparency, leading to a more compliant and structured asset management environment [2][4][9] Group 2: Growth by Sector - Trust companies saw the highest growth rate at 23.58%, with their scale approaching that of bank wealth management products, which grew by 11.75% [8][12] - Public funds and insurance asset management also experienced significant growth, with increases of 20.39% and 15.08% respectively, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8][12] - By the end of 2024, the asset management scale for various sectors was as follows: insurance at 33.26 trillion yuan (21.18%), public funds at 32.83 trillion yuan (20.91%), bank wealth management at 29.95 trillion yuan (19.07%), and trust at 29.56 trillion yuan (18.82%) [8][12] Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident, with investors moving funds from traditional bank deposits to higher-yielding wealth management products due to declining interest rates [6][9][16] - The asset allocation preferences of investors have shifted, with a notable increase in the proportion of investments in securities and a decrease in non-standard debt investments, reflecting a more cautious approach to risk [30][33] Group 4: Financial Performance and Revenue Trends - The revenue for trust companies increased to 940.36 billion yuan in 2024, although net profits saw a significant decline of 45.52% compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in profitability despite growth in asset scale [40] - Public funds experienced a decline in management fees due to regulatory changes and market conditions, with a notable shift towards passive investment strategies [41] - Bank wealth management products reported a decrease in annualized returns to 2.65% in 2024, highlighting the impact of the low-interest-rate environment on profitability [43]

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2024, China's total asset management scale is expected to reach 150 trillion yuan, with significant growth across various asset management sectors, indicating a clear trend of "financial disintermediation" [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The asset management industry in China has evolved significantly since the introduction of bank wealth management products in 2004, with various regulatory changes shaping its development [2][4]. - The total asset management scale reached 157.04 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a 13.09% increase from the previous year, the highest growth rate since the implementation of the new asset management regulations [6][8]. - The growth in asset management is driven by a shift in deposits towards wealth management products due to declining bank deposit rates and regulatory changes [15][14]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Trusts experienced the highest growth rate at 23.58%, with their scale approaching that of bank wealth management products, which grew by 11.75% [7][8]. - Public funds and insurance asset management also saw significant growth rates of 20.39% and 15.08%, respectively, indicating a shift in investor preferences [8][19]. - By the end of 2024, the asset management scale for insurance reached 33.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 21.18% of the total market, making it the largest segment [23][24]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been proactive in promoting high-quality development in the asset management industry, issuing multiple regulatory documents to enhance market stability and investor protection [4][5]. - The implementation of the new asset management regulations has led to a more standardized and transparent industry, with a focus on compliance and risk management [2][3]. Group 4: Financial Performance - The net profit of trust companies increased to 940.36 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting the growth in asset management scale, although the profit margin remains lower than pre-2021 levels [39]. - Public fund management fees decreased by over 8% in 2024 due to a shift towards lower-cost passive investment products, impacting overall revenue [40]. - The income from securities firms' asset management remained stable at 239.47 billion yuan in 2024, despite a significant decline in asset scale over recent years [41].

Summary of Stablecoin Conference Call Industry Overview - The stablecoin market is projected to reach a market capitalization of approximately $230 billion by the end of May 2025, representing a growth of over 40 times in five years, with an annual transaction volume of $28 trillion, surpassing Visa and Mastercard [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Regulatory Framework**: The U.S. and Hong Kong have implemented regulations focusing on reserve asset transparency, liquidity management, algorithmic stability, anti-money laundering, and consumer protection, requiring 100% reserve assets to be backed by fiat or highly liquid assets [1][5] - **International Payments**: Stablecoins offer low-cost and efficient international payment methods, with transaction fees typically below 1% and processing times of a few minutes, contrasting with the global average remittance fee of 6.62% [1][7] - **Impact on Banking**: Stablecoins pose a disintermediation risk for banks, shifting liabilities from savings to interbank liabilities, which may compress interest margins and erode profits [3][13] - **Market Size Comparison**: Despite the rapid growth of stablecoins, their market size remains small compared to traditional financial systems, with domestic dollar deposits around $19 trillion and U.S. Treasury securities at approximately $37 trillion [4] - **Long-term Debt Market**: The ability of stablecoins to absorb long-term U.S. Treasury securities may be overestimated, as they primarily hold short-term securities [15] Additional Important Points - **Types of Stablecoins**: Stablecoins are categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins dominating the market [2] - **Potential for Financial Disruption**: The rapid growth of stablecoins could lead to significant disruptions in the banking sector, particularly if their adoption exceeds current projections [13] - **Government Debt Implications**: The rise of stablecoins may increase demand for U.S. Treasury securities, but their short-term nature limits their impact on long-term debt financing [15] - **Emerging Market Effects**: In emerging economies, the use of stablecoins could lead to currency depreciation and inflationary pressures, prompting regulatory responses to safeguard financial stability [18] - **Future of International Monetary Order**: The development of stablecoins reflects a duality for the U.S. dollar, reinforcing its dominance while also paving the way for a more diversified monetary order amid de-dollarization trends [17] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the stablecoin industry, its regulatory environment, market dynamics, and potential impacts on traditional financial systems.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the financial sector, highlighting a decrease in loan demand and potential liquidity pressures on banks [1][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the overall loan demand remains insufficient, particularly in medium to long-term corporate and retail loans, which are crucial indicators of real economic demand [1][2][8]. - Social financing growth is primarily driven by government bond issuance rather than credit growth, indicating a shift in leverage dynamics towards government projects that typically have longer return cycles [4][5]. - The phenomenon of financial disintermediation is noted, where funds are moving from traditional banking systems to other channels, increasing liquidity pressure on banks and weakening the transmission effect of monetary policy [7][12]. Summary by Sections Loan Demand and Credit Growth - In May, new loans increased by 620 billion, falling short of market expectations and reflecting a year-on-year decrease in both corporate and retail loans [2][3]. - The decline in short-term loans is attributed to reduced promotional efforts by banks, while medium to long-term loans show slight improvement due to lower mortgage rates [9][8]. Social Financing and Government Bonds - Social financing increased by over 220 billion year-on-year, with government bonds contributing more than 230 billion, indicating a reliance on government debt for financing rather than private sector credit [4][5]. - The structure of social financing is shifting towards government bonds, which typically fund projects that do not yield immediate returns, leading to a lag between financial data and real economic performance [4][5]. Banking Sector and Liquidity - Banks are experiencing significant liability pressure, relying on government-backed projects for stability, while credit demand in sectors like wholesale and manufacturing has not fully recovered [6][1]. - Future liquidity will be influenced by fiscal policies and the progress of large projects, necessitating close monitoring of financial disintermediation trends [6][7]. Financial Disintermediation - Financial disintermediation is occurring gradually, driven by the comparative pricing of financial products rather than strict regulatory constraints, leading to a slow outflow of deposits from banks [12][11]. - The trend is expected to continue, with asset management institutions increasingly focusing on bond allocations as traditional banking faces challenges in retaining deposits [14][15]. Market Indicators: M1 and M2 - M1 growth of 2.3% indicates a recovery, primarily due to increased corporate reserves, while M2 growth remains stable at 7.9% [10][11]. - The changes in M1 and M2 reflect underlying economic conditions, with capital market performance significantly influencing deposit trends in large banks [18][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - end interest rates in the bond market may open a downward space. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to 1.3%. The full decline of short - end interest rates will bring a downward space for long - end interest rates. The bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy. If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term bonds. After the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [2][7][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Large Banks Buying Short - Term Bonds, Short - End Market Expected to Start - If the central bank restarts the operation of buying and selling treasury bonds, it will directly benefit the bond market, especially short - end varieties. The form may be similar to that in the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly manifested as the purchase of short - duration treasury bonds rather than "buying short and selling long" [5][13]. - Even without considering the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds through primary dealers, large banks have the motivation to buy short - term bonds: 1) Since this year, long - term bond trading has been difficult and the profit - making effect has been weak, so large banks have the motivation to adjust their strategies and buy short - term bonds. 2) Since this year, the average issuance term of government bonds has been higher than in previous years. After taking on more long - duration assets, large banks also have the motivation to buy short - term treasury bonds to balance the duration of the bond investment portfolio. 3) After the reduction of the listed deposit rate in mid - and late May, there is a possibility of "deposit transfer" in banks. This part of the funds mainly flows back to the banking system through non - banks' allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit and inter - bank current deposits, which may bring pressure on the shortening of the liability duration of banks. Therefore, large banks also have the demand to buy short - duration treasury bonds to balance the asset - liability duration [5][17]. 2. Bank Liability Pressure is Controllable, and the Yield of Certificates of Deposit is Expected to Continue to Decline - The reduction of bank deposit rates theoretically has a negative impact on certificates of deposit and is beneficial to short - duration treasury bonds and credit bonds. Considering the uncertain recovery of real - economy financing and the central bank's recent care attitude, after the peak maturity period of inter - bank certificates of deposit in June, the yield is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yields of corresponding treasury bonds and credit bonds will also decline [6][21]. - The reduction of deposit rates and the financial disintermediation after the rectification of "manual interest compensation" have similarities and differences. The reduction of the listed deposit rate is a normal process of interest rate marketization transmission. Due to the stickiness of general deposits, the "deposit transfer" caused by the reduction of the listed deposit rate will be slower than that caused by the rectification of manual interest compensation. The final influencing factors of the price of inter - bank certificates of deposit are the central bank's liquidity injection and the consumption of banks' excess reserves by real - economy financing. Currently, the central bank has shown its care attitude towards liquidity, and the recovery of real - economy financing is still slow. It is currently judged that 1.7% is basically the upper limit of the yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit, and it is expected to decline to 1.6% after the maturity pressure in June [6][22]. 3. Short - End Interest Rates Decline First, Then Driving Long - End Interest Rates Down - The short - end interest rates may decline first, and then open a downward space for the long - end. It is expected that the bond market may first experience a bullish steepening and then a bullish flattening. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 1 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.3%. If the central bank further reduces the funds price center, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.6%, and the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline to around 1.8%. The strategy is to first use the "bullet" strategy and then the "dumbbell" strategy [7][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022, and its impact on the bond market may not be fully priced. The main impact may be on financial disintermediation, which is beneficial to credit bonds. Although short - term frictions and government bond supply shocks increase the pressure on certificate of deposit (CD) supply, CD yields are expected to gradually decline. The bond market is expected to gradually recover after short - term fluctuations [2][6][56] Summary by Directory I. This time the deposit rate cut is the largest since 2022 - Since 2021, China's deposit rate formation mechanism has been adjusted multiple times. In 2021, the deposit rate ceiling was changed from a multiple to a point - based system; in 2022, banks were required to adjust deposit rates with reference to the 10 - year Treasury yield and 1 - year LPR; in 2023, the central bank tightened its constraints on bank deposit rates [7][8][11] - The decline in deposit rates is often greater than that of policy rates. Due to the narrowing of bank spreads, the central bank cut interest rates in May 2025, pushing the LPR down by 10BP, followed by a new round of deposit rate cuts. This time, the deposit rate ceiling was cut by the largest margin since 2022, reflecting the central bank's goal of protecting bank spreads and promoting a decline in social financing costs [15][23][26] II. The impact of deposit rate adjustment on bank liabilities requires the cooperation of liquidity environment and asset - side shocks - The decline in deposit rates mainly causes structural impacts on bank liabilities, such as funds flowing from some banks to others or being used to buy non - bank products. However, this time, all types of banks cut rates simultaneously, so the impact on each bank is relatively smooth, and the main impact may be increased financial disintermediation [28] - For the impact on the entire banking system to expand, two conditions are generally required: tight liquidity and asset - side shocks. For example, in the second half of 2020, the reduction of structured deposits, combined with tight liquidity and increased supply of credit and government bonds, led to a significant increase in CD rates; in April 2024, after the ban on manual interest subsidies, large - bank deposits decreased, but the stable liquidity environment limited the increase in CD rates [29][30][32] III. The core contradiction of this deposit rate cut may still be financial disintermediation, and its impact has not been fully priced - From the perspective of the money market, although there were fluctuations after the RRR cut and interest rate cut, they can be attributed to exogenous factors such as government bond net financing and tax - period disturbances. The central bank's short - term target DR007 center may have dropped to the 1.5% - 1.6% range, and the spread between the money market rate and the policy rate has been narrowing since March, with the possibility of further narrowing in June [33][36] - From the asset side, the decline in bank credit in April may be due to weakening credit demand after the concentrated lending in the first quarter, rather than the replacement of credit by special refinancing bonds. There is still about 1.3 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds to be used after May, which may restrict new credit. The supply of government bonds in May increased, which, combined with the frictions caused by the deposit rate cut, may be the reason for the recent fluctuations in CD rates. However, the impact of government bond supply is expected to weaken marginally in the future [45][49][56]

Core Viewpoint - The intention of banks to guide depositors towards "short-term" deposits remains clear, as they respond to the pressure of narrowing net interest margins through refined pricing strategies to reshape the deposit market landscape [1][7][9]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Trends - Several banks previously exhibited extreme inversion in deposit rates, where shorter-term deposits offered higher rates than longer-term ones. However, this phenomenon has diminished with the recent wave of deposit rate cuts [2][6]. - As of May 21, 2023, major banks like China Merchants Bank have aligned their one-year and five-year deposit rates at 1.30%, eliminating the extreme inversion [2][9]. - Despite the disappearance of extreme inversions in some banks, certain smaller banks still exhibit varying degrees of rate inversion, particularly in their short- to medium-term deposits [5][6]. Market Response and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that the trend of "large banks leading, smaller banks following" in deposit rate cuts will continue, potentially leading to a gradual disappearance of existing rate inversions in smaller banks [6][7]. - The recent deposit rate cuts are expected to positively impact banks' net interest margins, as the reduction in deposit costs may exceed the decline in asset yields for the first time historically [11]. Current Deposit Rates - As of May 21, 2023, the deposit rates for major banks are as follows: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: 1-year at 0.95%, 5-year at 1.30% - China Merchants Bank: 1-year at 0.95%, 5-year at 1.30% - Other banks like CITIC Bank and Minsheng Bank have similar rates for various terms [8][9]. Implications for Banking Sector - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on net interest margins, with the first quarter of 2023 showing a decline in net interest margin to 1.43%, a historically low level [9]. - The ongoing trend of financial disintermediation is leading to a "liability shortage" for banks, compelling them to attract deposits through higher rates in interbank markets, which could counteract the benefits of lower deposit costs [11].