对于铜价走势，国投期货表示，昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩至93美元。贵金属短线波动 大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风险。关注短期均线位置强弱，延续 铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 （文华综合） 沪铜夜盘走弱，日内行情有所转弱，收盘微涨0.28%。周边金属走势乐观，美指低位，沪铜下方存在一 定支撑，但需求较为疲弱，全球显性库存累积，上行动力同样有限。 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，外围市场不确定性笼罩，贵金属延续强势，铜价低开反弹。本周美联储 议息决议即将落地，按兵不动概率较大，但美联储新一任主席人选也将在近日公布，市场关注对美联储 后续货币政策预期的影响。 最近铜价仍然高企，下游需求继续受到抑制，现货维持贴水局面，COMEX、LME、上期所铜库存全面 增加，国内精炼铜社会库存也维持增势，弱势的需求表现限制铜价上方空间，最近虽然贵金属继续走 强，但铜价持续高位盘整，期价有一定的畏高表现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with domestic copper fluctuating between 99,000-105,600 CNY/ton and LME copper between 12,500-13,500 USD/ton, indicating a lack of upward momentum at these absolute highs [3][15]. Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is generally favorable, influenced by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising tensions with Iran, which have boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, positively impacting non-ferrous metals [4][16]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on its dominance in the Western Hemisphere highlights the strategic value of key mineral resources, particularly copper from major producing countries like Chile and Peru [4][16]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the new Federal Reserve Chair are contributing to a bullish sentiment for precious metals and copper [4][16]. Copper Supply Constraints - Copper supply remains tight, posing a significant constraint in the medium to long term. Negotiations for processing fees for 2026 are ongoing, with Chinese smelters agreeing to a benchmark of 0 USD/ton for copper concentrate [5][17]. - The SMM imported copper concentrate TC index has dropped to -49.79 USD/dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][17]. - Global copper mine production in November 2025 was reported at 1.923 million tons, a slight decrease from October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5][17][18]. Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production in November 2025 was 2.371 million tons, down 3,000 tons from October, with a cumulative increase of 4.2% year-on-year [6][19]. - China's refined copper production for December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. Current Market Conditions - The domestic refined copper inventory has been accumulating, with SMM social inventory rising from approximately 160,000 tons to 330,000 tons [7][20]. - The current state of the market shows a slight backwardation, with the spot price of copper experiencing a small discount due to high prices and subdued demand [7][20]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to dampen demand, with a potential slowdown in recovery post-holiday [9][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are providing support for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, although copper prices are experiencing limited upward movement due to high levels and market sentiment [10][22]. - Supply-side constraints persist, with low processing fees and high refined copper production levels, while domestic inventories are accumulating [10][22]. - Overall, while short-term copper prices may be prone to increases, market sentiment can shift rapidly at these elevated levels, necessitating careful position management [10][22].

沪铜早间高开，日内涨幅略有回落，收盘上涨1.26%。早间沪铜走势受贵金属大涨带动，但最近全球铜 显现库存有所增加，高价对铜需求的抑制仍然存在，铜价涨势受限。 最近LME铜库存整体延续回升姿态，目前升至17万吨之上，为去年5月下旬以来最高。国内精铜社会库 存上周四一度停止累积，但高价对下游需求的抑制仍然存在。 对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，近期高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业 内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但从周五表现来看，无论是贵金属看涨情绪外溢效应还是从资 金对有色追捧力度，仍维系着铜价易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价， 更多的需求金融属性的角度去看，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。 （文华综合） 截至上周国内铜精矿加工费弱势运行，且最近海外铜矿传来一些干扰消息，铜市矿紧局面仍在延续。国 内冶炼产能继续扩张，去年全年产量再创新高，后续仍需关注矿紧对冶炼端的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks experienced a collective surge, with significant gains observed across various companies in the sector, indicating a positive market sentiment despite underlying macroeconomic concerns [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose by 12.02%, reaching HKD 16.68 [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 11.02%, trading at HKD 5.05 [1] - China Gold International (02099) saw a rise of 7.25%, priced at HKD 233.6 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) gained 5.05%, with shares at HKD 42.46 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) climbed by 4.07%, now at HKD 47.06 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Macro expectations have cooled, but geopolitical concerns persist, with the U.S. government continuing to pressure the Federal Reserve [1] - Market pricing for interest rate cuts remains conservative, and inflation data has not exceeded expectations, while unemployment rates have decreased [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is still evident, despite weak short-term supply and demand characteristics [1] Group 3: Copper Price Dynamics - Global copper inventory has increased to 1 million tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1] - After adjusting around the 100,000 mark, copper prices rebounded, primarily influenced by geopolitical factors and gold price trends [1] - Guangzhou Futures suggests that while the logic driving copper price increases is weakening, the fragile supply of copper mines and rigid demand from emerging sectors support a solid price floor, indicating limited adjustment space [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% from January 16 [1] - The report highlights that the TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement. Although cable manufacturers' operating rates have improved, domestic social inventory continues to rise, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices. However, the outlook for 2026 remains optimistic for copper price increases [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% as of January 23, 2026. The main port copper concentrate inventory in China was 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [2] - The TC spot price was recorded at -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [3][4] Futures Market - As of January 23, 2026, the active SHFE copper contract had a position of 231,000 lots, an increase of 6.4% from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the valuation of copper is neutral to bearish, with narrowing basis spreads inside and outside the market, narrowing spreads between refined and scrap copper, and continuously increasing global visible inventories. In terms of drivers, the decline in the US dollar index and copper concentrate prices is bullish, while the global manufacturing PMI is slightly bearish. At the price level, the easing of US - EU tensions, the emphasis on strategic resource demand in Germany, the loose domestic policy, and the record - high precious metal prices create a positive sentiment. The copper supply remains tight, with increased short - term disruptions at the mine end, and the demand for refined copper has improved after the price correction. Therefore, although the global visible inventory continues to increase and the LME North American inventory has marginally rebounded, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The expected trading range for the main SHFE copper contract this week is 99,000 - 105,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to decline, and the smelting profit is supplemented by the high price of sulfuric acid. The processing fee for crude copper is flat week - on - week. There are supply disruptions such as the strike at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper mine, road blockades at Escondida and Zaldivar mines, and some companies have adjusted their 2026 copper production guidance [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 905,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in SHFE, LME, and COMEX all increased. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 108,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons. The obvious inventory backlog shows relatively weak demand [11]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January - December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [11]. - **Demand**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The trading atmosphere in the spot market improved, and the overall transaction was stable. The downstream initial operating rate improved. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the substitution of scrap copper was still limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The main SHFE copper contract rose 0.57% this week, and LME copper rose 2.39% to 13,128.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products in different regions and varieties are provided, and the price differences are also shown [23]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot in East China was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M turned to a discount, reporting a premium of - 66.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import remained at a loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [26]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper Contango structure widened, and LME copper turned to a Contango structure [30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still contributed positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB appreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [38]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 58,000 tons to 905,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increase came from Shanghai, while the inventories in Jiangsu and Guangdong slightly declined. The LME inventory increase came from Asian and North American warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio continued to decline [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased month - on - month. It is expected to increase slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the refined copper production in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [54]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January - December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products, anode copper, and refined copper showed different trends in December 2025, and the import sources also changed [57][60][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The global and Chinese consumption structures of electrolytic copper are presented, with different proportions in industries such as power, home appliances, and construction [76]. - **PMI**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in December 2025 returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies were differentiated [79]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December 2025, the output of some copper - related downstream industries increased year - on - year, while others decreased. The cumulative output from January - December also showed different trends [82]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different copper - related downstream enterprises in December 2025 showed different trends, and the expected trends for January 2026 are also provided. The operating rates of some enterprises this week showed rebounds or stability [87][90][93][96][99][102]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper spread narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,865 yuan/ton on Friday [107]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 29,306 to 1,316,486 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2602 contract were 186,300 lots (bilateral) [112]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 20, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds decreased as of January 23 [115].

沪铜日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.64%。期市氛围偏暖，周边品种普遍上行，沪铜走势受到提振，不 过最近全球铜显性库存整体回升，期价涨幅有限。 最近铜矿端再传扰动，由于持续近三周的劳资罢工，位于智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下的 Mantoverde铜金矿的生产已经停止，其海水淡化工厂关闭。不过铜矿商自由港麦克莫伦公司周四表示， 旗下旗舰矿山、全球第二大铜矿Grasberg的约85%产能，将于今年下半年恢复生产。当前铜矿端偏紧状 态延续已久，国内冶炼厂生产压力增加，但产量仍保持扩张状态，最近铜价对矿端干扰的反应不大。 昨日LME铜库存增加8850吨至168250吨，为近八个月高位，注册仓单同步增加，注销占比回落。周中 国内部分地区到货有限，且下游逢低采购，国内精铜社会库存并未继续累积。新湖期货表示，昨日 LME库存大增8850吨，其中美国新奥尔良库存增加5875；由于COMEX近月2601合约低于LME铜价，套 利空间驱动下，美国市场的铜被交仓到LME新奥尔良仓库；但由于远期COMEX铜价仍高于LME，因此 美国市场大量的库存仅是在不同的仓库中流转，并不会流出至非美市场；非美市场铜库存压力并不大 ...

对于铜价走势，金源期货表示，特朗普表示已与北约就格陵兰岛问题达成共识，将不会兑现原定对欧洲 八国实施加征关税政策，市场避险情绪降温，金银回落一度拖累铜价向下调整，此外，高铜价持续拖累 国内需求，洋山铜溢价最低跌至20美金附近，创近1年半以来最低；基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产进 程缓慢，全球显性库存继续增加，国内累库速率加快，整体预计铜价短期将转入调整，但在基本面结构 性时候的背景下，调整幅度或较为有限。 （文华综合） 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情略有转暖，收盘上涨0.28%。由于铜价高企，此前精废价差拉大，废产阳 极铜的产量增加，12月中国精铜产量继续增加，助力全年产量再创纪录，最近宏观面情绪反复，全球铜 库存回升，利多消息有限，铜价高位调整。 国家统计局数据显示，中国12月精炼铜产量为132.6万吨，同比增加9.1%。1-12月累计产量为1,472.0万 吨，同比增长10.4%，近些年由于国内冶炼产能持续扩张，叠加冶炼厂优化原料结构，精炼铜产量继续 增加。 此前由于市场担忧美国未来仍会对精炼铜加征关税，美国对于全球铜的虹吸效应仍在延续，当前 COMEX铜库存已经升至55万短吨之上，超过50万吨。此前得益于全球 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. However, both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact, and although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. Both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales from January 1 - 11 being 117,000 vehicles, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% significant decline compared to the same period in December 2025. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact. Although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China today is - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 145 yuan/ton. On January 20, 2026, the LME official price was 12,937 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 122 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 145,600 tons, a decrease of 2,612 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 156,300 tons, an increase of 8,875 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 547,600 short tons, an increase of 4,715 short tons from the previous period [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]