Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business sentiment. The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 80960 and a basis of 20, indicating a premium over the futures. Inventory data presents a mixed picture, with copper inventories decreasing by 1325 to 152625 tons on September 15 and SHFE copper inventories increasing by 12203 tons to 94054 tons compared to last week. The market is biased towards the long side, as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is trending upwards, and the net long position of the main players is increasing. Given the inventory increase and geopolitical disturbances, and awaiting the consumption guidance in the peak season of September, the copper price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend as the current long - short contradictions are not prominent [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts and scrap copper policy changes, along with an improved manufacturing PMI in August [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over the futures [2]. - Inventory data shows a mixed situation, with a daily decrease and a weekly increase [2]. - The market is bullish based on the price - moving average relationship and the main players' net long position [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, pending September's peak - season consumption data [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with varying production, import, export, and consumption figures [23]. Other Information - The source of data is Wind [10][14] - The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory and LME inventory are involved in the inventory section, and the bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15] - The processing fee is decreasing [17] - CFTC - related content is mentioned, but no details are provided [19]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and supply-demand conditions are tightening, leading to an expected rise in copper prices [4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 81,060 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from September 5, while LME copper closed at 10,068 USD/ton, up 1.72% [4]. - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the market anticipating a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, contributing to a weaker dollar index [4]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.2% [5]. - As of September 12, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 693,000 tons, up 0.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 543,000 tons as of September 8, 2025, up 5.1% week-on-week [5]. Group 3: Raw Materials - In August 2025, domestic waste copper production decreased by 5% month-on-month but increased by 16% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in May 2025 was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In August 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 15.6% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of September 12, 2025, was -41.42 USD/ton, down 0.9 USD/ton from September 5, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [7]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.62%, up 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [9]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to decline by 12%, 22.6%, and 19.7% year-on-year from September to November [9]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 5% week-on-week, with a total of 187,000 contracts [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 6% week-on-week, totaling 27,000 contracts as of September 9, 2025 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: The recent US CPI and PPI data are within market expectations, having no significant impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the US employment market data is below expectations, showing weakness. The market has priced in three interest - rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year. The weakening US dollar under the interest - rate cut expectations supports the upward movement of copper prices [2][5]. - Supply aspect: As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. Factory maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and smelter maintenance, September's electrolytic copper production is expected to drop significantly [2][5]. - Demand aspect: As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, and high prices are suppressing demand, starting a inventory - building trend [2][5]. - Overall view: This week, the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations are weakening the US dollar and pushing up copper prices. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting copper prices. The demand side is optimistic about the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise and are less likely to fall. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US August CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, and 2.9% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations. - The US August PPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and fell 0.1% month - on - month, also below expectations. - The US initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening employment market [11]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The highest price was 81,190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 79,400 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.23%, and the interval increase was 1.15% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of September 15, the average spot premium in East China was 95 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 25 yuan/ton. With more imported and domestic copper supplies, high prices reduced market purchases, putting pressure on spot premiums [19]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of September 15, the weekly change rate of LME copper was 1.22%, closing at $10,068/ton. The LME copper spot discount strengthened slightly. The increasing Fed interest - rate cut expectations supported the rise of LME copper [24]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, up 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. From January to July, the cumulative import was 17.314 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year. As of September 12, the inventory at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. - On September 8, 2025, an accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended all operations [29]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of September 12, the spot TC was - $41.42/tonne dry, and the RC was - 4.16 cents/lb, remaining weakly stable. The mid - year long - term contract negotiation set TC/RC at $0/tonne dry and 0 cents/lb. High sulfuric acid prices support smelter profits, but seasonal maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure, with tight refined copper supply expected [33]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and maintenance, September's production is expected to drop by 52,500 tons to 1.119 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 11.42%. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, down from the previous month but up 2.4% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.536 million tons, down 2.1% year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - German officials called on Europe to stop the large - scale flow of scrap copper to China. In 2025, 23.18% of China's scrap copper imports from January to July were from Europe, and the new policy will reduce imports from Europe. - In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,100 tons, higher than expected, but imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, and scrap copper resources in other regions were also tight [42]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen [47]. 3.10 Copper Products - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 63.02%, down 0.99% month - on - month but up 1.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the estimated cumulative production of refined copper rods was 8.484 million tons, up 8.64% year - on - year. - During the off - season of air - conditioners, weak terminal demand did not support an increase in orders for copper tube enterprises. This week, copper tube production decreased, and the production schedule remained stable [52]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, up 18.2% year - on - year. From January to July, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,806 hours, 188 hours less than the same period last year. From January to June, power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% year - on - year, a record high for the same period. Power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively [56]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 9.3% year - on - year. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 19.5% year - on - year. The completed area was 276.94 million square meters, down 17.0% year - on - year [60]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of total vehicle sales [65]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of September 12, LME copper inventory started to decline, recording 154,000 tons, down 2.53% from the previous week and 1.23% from the previous month. COMEX copper inventory accumulation slowed down, recording 310,500 tons, up 1.68% from the previous week and 16.38% from the previous month. - On September 11, the total spot inventory of copper in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 82,300 tons, down 3,300 tons from the 4th and 1,500 tons from the 8th. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 77,000 tons, and Guangdong was 5,300 tons, both showing a downward trend. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, up 6,633 tons from the previous week, and high prices suppressed demand, starting a low - level inventory - building trend [70][75].

铜周报：宏观产业共振，铜价维持偏强格局 2025-9-15 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 供给端：截至9月12日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-41.4美元/吨，周环比下跌0.9美元/吨，铜精矿进口粗炼费继续转跌至低位，矿冶矛盾 持续。截至9月12日，国内铜精矿港口库存57.4万吨，铜精矿港口库存低位小幅回升，但仍处于历年低位。8月我国电解铜产量117.15 万吨，环比减少0.24%，同比增加15.59%，国内精炼铜产量增速保持稳定，9月进入冶炼厂关停检修高峰，叠加政策端对阳极铜供给 影响，9月电解铜产量预计环比减少。 p 需求端：下游消费暂无明显起色，步入金九旺季需求预期尚未兑现。截至9月11日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率下降至67.53%， 同比下降14.19个百分点。9月以来铜价持续高位运行，导致下游采购保持谨慎，持续抑制消费回暖。同时精废价差有所扩大，进一步导 致精铜杆消费承压。8月铜板带、铜管、铜箔开工率分别为65.87%、65.70%、78.44%。铜价重心抬升使得下游制造企业采购意愿明 显下降，下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，8月份，制造业PMI升至49.4%，景气水平较上 月有所改善；中性。 2、基差：现货80990，基差-70，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：9月12日铜库存减225至153950吨，上期所铜库存较上周增12203吨至94054吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，等待9月旺季消费指引，目前多空矛盾不突出，铜价震荡偏强运 行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 每日汇总 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨） 增 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - Recent copper prices have reached a five-month high due to macroeconomic policy expectations, supply disruptions, and resilient demand [1] - The domestic copper price in Shanghai has also seen fluctuations, with the main contract reaching a peak of 81,100 yuan/ton [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year [1][2] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has halted operations due to an accident, impacting a significant annual output of 297,000 tons [2] - If the Grasberg mine remains closed for one month, it could lead to a reduction of approximately 4.5 million tons of refined copper production [2][3] - The long-term structural issues in global copper mining, such as declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, contribute to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Seasonal demand in traditional consumption areas is expected to support copper prices, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [3] - The demand from the renewable energy sector remains strong, with significant production and sales growth in domestic electric vehicles [3] - Global low inventory levels are also supporting copper prices, alongside expectations of continued strong demand from re-industrialization efforts [5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - Domestic policies tightening on scrap copper are expected to lead to a 5% month-on-month decrease in electrolytic copper production in September [4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision for potential impacts on copper prices [4] - The overall outlook for copper prices remains cautiously optimistic, with potential upward trends supported by macroeconomic policies and demand, despite concerns over future supply [5] Group 5: Corporate Strategies - Major mining companies, including Fortescue Metals Group, are actively exploring new copper assets in response to declining demand for iron ore [6] - Fortescue emphasizes a strategic approach to investments, ensuring long-term benefits while maintaining a healthy balance sheet [6]

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为96.4%，降息50个基点的概率为3.6%。美联储 10月累计降息25个基点的概率为16.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.0%，累计降息75个基点的概率 为3.0%。 特朗普再度敦促美上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克 9月12日，商务部新闻发言人就中美在西班牙举行会谈事答记者问时表示，经中美双方商定，中共中央 政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于9月14日至17日率团赴西班牙与美方举行会谈。双方将讨论美单 边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等经贸问题。据新华社报道，当地时间9月14日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 本周迎来"超级央行周"。美国、日本、英国、加拿大央行将公布利率决议。巴西、南非、挪威央行也将 公布最新政策利率。美联储主席、日本央行行长将于利率决议之后举行货币政策发布会。 美联储将公布9月利率决议 北京时间周四（9月18日）凌晨，美联储将公布9月利率决议结果，目前市场预计其会降息25个基点。如 果结果符合预期，那么预计市场会将焦点转向美联储未来的利率路径上，特别是最新的经济预期、"点 阵图"和美联储主席鲍威尔随后的新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper are generally strong. Mine accidents and low inventories support copper prices, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut continues to underpin the downside. The market is expected to be mainly in a strong sideways trend [9]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium to long term, it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. In the short term, it is advised to gradually take profit on short positions due to geopolitical risks and partial release of OPEC+ meeting negatives [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt both increase. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and then wait and see as the asphalt futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range [12]. - **PP**: It is expected that PP will trade sideways in the near term with limited downside as downstream demand may improve during the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade sideways with limited downside in the near term as the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the industry lacks anti - involution policies [15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline sideways as its fundamentals are under pressure with high inventory and weak demand, and the industry lacks effective policies [16][18]. - **Urea**: The urea market is bottoming out, and a technical rebound is expected as the inventory is high and domestic demand is weak [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 12, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Silver, apples, copper, nickel, aluminum, and others rose, while the container shipping index (European line), low - sulfur fuel oil, and others declined. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC and IM rose. Among bond futures, TS fell, while TF, T, and TL rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:17 on September 12, copper 2510, silver 2510, and 30 - year treasury bonds 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, and CPI increased. China's copper ore imports in August increased year - on - year. The smelter processing fee decreased, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The terminal profit is weak, and the peak - season expectation is uncertain [9]. 3.2.2 Crude Oil - The US oil products are in a state of over - inventory, and the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. OPEC+ will adjust production in October, and Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The US - India trade issue may affect the global oil trade flow. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken [10]. 3.2.3 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate has increased this week but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September has increased significantly. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory - to - sales ratio has increased but is still at a low level. The cost support has weakened [11][12]. 3.2.4 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production has declined. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The downstream is expected to enter the peak season [13]. 3.2.5 Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the PE downstream operating rate has increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased. The agricultural film is entering the peak season [15]. 3.2.6 PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low. The export expectation has weakened, and the social inventory is high. New production capacity has been put into operation or is planned to be tested [16]. 3.2.7 Urea - Urea opened low and rebounded weakly, then declined in the afternoon. The supply is around 180,000 tons per day, with both restarts and maintenance. The inventory is high, and the demand is limited. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the inventory is still high [19].

2025 年 9 月 7 日 行业研究 美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，黄铜棒 8 月开工率创近 6 年同期新低 ——铜行业周报（20250901-20250905） 要点 本周小结：美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，供需边际向好，铜价有望 2025Q4 走 强。截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 80140 元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日+0.92%； LME 铜收盘价 9898 美元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日-0.05%。（1）宏观：美国 8 月非 农就业数据不及预期，市场预计 9 月降息概率升至 100%，美元指数偏弱。（2） 供需：此前美国铜关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐 步结束。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，8 月电解铜产量环比微降，随着电网、空 调需求 Q4 环比回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+10.6%，LME 铜库存环比-0.6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 68.8 万吨，环比上周 -3.1%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 9 ...

Core Viewpoint - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 52,500 tons due to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, leading to reduced crude copper output [1] Group 1: Production and Supply - The reduction in electrolytic copper production is attributed to the cleanup of scrap copper tax policies and maintenance at smelting plants [1] - After the implementation of U.S. tariffs, the import volume of refined copper has declined, while non-U.S. regions are expected to increase supply by 120,000 tons per month, raising net import pressure for China [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has risen to 85%, which, along with a weaker dollar, has increased the allocation value of copper as the consumption peak season approaches [1] - The continuous low holding of copper futures below 500,000 lots indicates a lack of market momentum for chasing prices, as funds exit or take profits [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations of interest rate cuts and tightening supply are supporting copper prices, but weak funding conditions and excess supply overseas are limiting price increases, leading to a short-term expectation of strong fluctuations in copper prices [1]