最近海外适逢假期，消息面指引有限，美指低位运行，贵金属重回强势状态，铜价走势继续受到带动。 另外，今日国家发改委产业发展司发布文章《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，要点包括完善重大项目论 证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设等。 沪铜早间高开，日内继续走强，收盘大涨3.6%，期价再创新高。美指低位叠加贵金属涨势提振，沪铜 再度走强，目前国内需求持续疲弱，非美地区库存虽有累积但仍然偏低，暂时未能造成更多拖累。 近期由于铜价持续走强，国内需求明显受抑，现货贴水持续扩大，社会库存出现回升，但铜价所受拖累 十分有限。由于对于美国关税的相关猜测，COMEX铜库存不断攀升，非美地区库存虽有增加，但整体 处于偏低位置。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，宏观总体偏积极，美国虹吸有迹象，短期非美紧张预期难以证伪，价格 发酵较充分，可能保持偏强震荡、重心抬升，但过程中需注意高价风险，现实层面较弱，若预期阶段性 缓和可能出现回落。 （文华综合） ...

圣诞节外盘短暂休战，电解铜价高位横盘仍可关注 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月25日SHFE主力合约价格收于95570元/吨，较12月24 日的95660元/吨小幅回落90元，跌幅0.09%；LME铜价在12月24日收于12133 美元/吨，较前日上扬78美元。基差走弱，SMM升水铜贴水从12月19日 的-180元/吨加深至12月25日的-280元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：隔夜伦铜在12月24日成交量收缩至1.8万手，持仓量降至34 万手；沪铜主力合约成交量收缩至14.5万手，持仓量降至24.4万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：LME铜库存在12月25日大幅增加6861吨至59083吨，增幅13.14%， 凸显供应宽松；江西铜业于12月24日收购SolGold，强化长期铜矿资源控 制；CSPT会议在12月25日决定不设2026年一季度加工费参考数字，增加冶 炼不确定性；11月废铜进口环比增5.8%至20.81万吨，补充供应。 需求端 ：高铜价抑制下游需求，SMM报告显示华北地区现货升贴水在12月 25日大跌至贴水600元/吨，精铜杆市场成交惨淡；年末资金结算导致提货 情 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report Today, Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile and the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, leading to a continuous increase in copper prices. SMM data shows increased copper production. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, while copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related impacts, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened. Caution is advised regarding price corrections [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile may start on December 29 if the new labor contract mediation fails. Last week, the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees boosted market sentiment, resulting in consecutive days of rising copper prices. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76%). SMM expects December's electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96%) month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, while copper foil maintains high - level prosperity. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Conditions] - Futures: Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. - Spot: Today, the spot premium/discount in East China was - 330 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was - 180 yuan/ton. On December 24, 2025, the LME official price was $12,218/ton, and the spot premium was + $35/ton [4]. [Supply Side] - As of December 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.98 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 59,100 tons, an increase of 6,861 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 24, 2025, Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. The production of electrolytic copper in China in November increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and SMM expects a further increase in December. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the market trading activity was suppressed. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. Spot: On December 24, 2025, the spot premium in East China was - 290 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $12,039/ton, and the spot premium was + $31/ton [4]. 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 52,200 tons, an increase of 2,679 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

以下文章来源于国投期货 ，作者肖静 国投期货 . 国投期货有限公司是中国首批成立的期货公司之一，现为国投证券全资子公司，实际控制人为国有重要骨干企业国投 集团。 文 | 肖 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 由于2025年全球铜精矿供损率高、增速低，平衡表预期角度，多数机构认为2026年全球铜精矿供应增速将会 回升，初步增速预期普遍在偏中性的2%水平，增量约45万吨级。全球主力项目新增产能预期较2025年规模更 大，复产项目市场主要关注巴拿马Cobre与印尼Grasberg铜矿的渐进恢复节奏（一季度大概率停滞）。经历 2025年，矿端增速静态预测只能提供基本轮廓，动态调整对行情节奏的指向效率更高。2026年预计全球铜精 矿的供应差异将逐季变动，目前认为一季度最紧、二季度市场逐渐关注新增项目的供应入市，三季度转而跟踪 大矿复产动作、四季度新增项目将集中兑现爬产效果，2026年矿的供需局面可能从2025年的"短缺"逐步转 向"紧平衡"。 2、"高铜价+淡消费"，关注国内炼厂一季度排产 沪铜涨势已突破9.5万元，且整体持仓高达64万手，且逢淡季，铜价持续上涨与国内现货供需信号间的分歧扩 大。2512合约交割 ...

有色贵金属市场热度持续，铜价持续上行试探新高 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：SHFE主力合约价格12月22日收于94040元/吨，涨幅 1.25%，延续上涨趋势；LME0-3基差由12月16日的贴水13.89美元/吨转为12 月19日的升水4.73美元/吨，基差显著走强。 持仓与成交 ：LME持仓量在2025年12月19日减少2759手至342091手，成交 量未直接提供，但价格波动显示市场活跃度较高，成交可能收缩。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：2025年11月铜废料进口环比增长5.87%至20.81万吨，但废铜锭进 口环比减少18%，阳极铜进口环比增加5.60%至5.83万吨；哈萨克斯坦矿业 公司2026年铜精矿招标可能增加未来供应；国务院安委办打击盗采矿产资 源政策可能收紧国内矿山供应。 需求端 ：铜箔进口环比增加9.23%至6653.52吨，出口环比增加11.47%至 5994.15吨，铜漆包线出口同比增长22.62%，显示消费电子和汽车领域需求 强劲；但铜锌合金出口同比下滑76.13%，覆铜板出口同比减少28.03%，建 筑领域需求偏弱。 库存端 ：LME库存从2 ...

长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：美指下跌、股油行情偏暖提振，隔夜伦铜收涨 0.34%；国内财税政策影 响开工，高铜价下终端采销低迷使现货贴水，然矿紧有支撑，预今现铜涨跌有限。 【铜期货市场】美指下跌、股油行情偏暖提振，隔夜伦铜偏强震荡；最新收盘报价11911元/吨，收涨40 美元，涨幅0.34%，成交量15865手减少3536手，持仓量344790手增加2699手；晚间沪铜高开回落后横 盘整理收平，主力月2602合约最新收盘价报93920元/吨，涨0元，涨幅0.00%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月20日伦铜最新库存量报157750公吨，较上个交易日减少2650公吨，跌幅 1.65%。 长江铜业网讯：今日沪铜主力2602合约高开，开盘价报94120元/吨，涨200元。 国内方面，财税政策影响企业开工，环保限制部分企业增产，财税问题在反向开票及现票领域持续拖累 生产。同时，高铜价下终端采销低迷，现货贴水拖累成品周转，行业资金流承压，预计年末整体开工率 难以上扬。 然矿紧有支撑，此前智利安托法加斯塔铜矿与中国一家冶炼厂达成协议，2026年铜精矿加工费/精炼费 （TC/RC）降至零，凸显矿山运营中断及潜 ...

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：铜矿长单TC落地，铜价高位整理 2025-12-22 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜高位震荡。截至上周五收至83180元/吨，周跌幅1.05%。宏观层面，美国11月CPI数据低于预期，虽短暂提振降息预期， 但对铜价的直接刺激有限，市场已基本消化年内货币政策路径。矿端持续紧缺，中国头部冶炼企业与Antofagasta敲定2026年铜精矿 长单加工费Benchmark为0美元/吨与0美分/磅。传统淡季下游需求放缓，铜库存累库叠加宏观缺乏指引下，预计铜价高位震荡运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25-11-05 25-10-30 25-10-24 25-10-20 25-10-14 25-09-30 25-09-24 25-09-18 25-09-12 25-09-08 ...

铜行业观点交流 20251221 摘要 2025 年全球精炼铜供应因矿山事件和智利供应问题减少至少 50 万吨， 抵消了部分地区需求疲软的影响，使得市场对铜价的强预期成为现实。 中国市场 2025 年铜消费增速虽经多次调整，最终稳定在 3.8%，高于 年初预期，主要受抢出口、光伏风电政策和价格下跌等因素驱动，对全 球铜价形成支撑。 10 月后铜价快速上涨对终端企业产能利用率和订单产生冲击，产能利用 率从 90%-100%降至 60%-80%，但长期来看，高铜价将被产业链逐 步消化，并推动铝代铜现象发展。 空调行业正制定铝管替代铜管标准，预计 2026 年 1 月实施，若推广成 功，每年或减少十几万吨至二三十万吨铜用量，但具体影响取决于市场 接受度。 美国纽约地区铜库存高达 46 万吨，可满足两个季度用量，且持续增加， 受特朗普政府可能加征关税影响，预计 12 月单月进口量或超 10 万吨， 明年上半年将持续影响市场。 Q&A 请您回顾一下 2025 年铜价的表现，并分享对未来铜价走势的看法。 2025 年铜价表现出强预期、弱现实的特点。需求方面，海外市场表现较预期 更弱，尤其是一些传统消费大国和新兴国家，如日 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业净多头持仓处于 1990 年以来 87%分位数 ——铜行业周报（20251215-20251219） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 93180 元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价 11882 美元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国 11 月失业率达 4.6%，2026 年 1 月降息概率环比 回升。（2）供需：据 SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长单 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨（本周 TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利 润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调 排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 202 ...