Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the lithium and copper mining sectors, particularly focusing on major Australian lithium mines and overseas copper companies. Lithium Mining Companies General Performance - Total lithium concentrate production for FY2025 is projected at 1.48 million tons, exceeding design capacity, although the CGP3 project's output has not met expectations [3][4] - Q2 production was stable at 340,000 tons, with sales increasing by 12% to 410,000 tons [4] - Cash costs rose to $238 per ton, a 7% increase due to declining ore grades [4] Future Outlook - For FY2026, lithium concentrate production is expected to increase to 1.5-1.65 million tons, with costs projected to decrease to approximately $202-$234 per ton [4] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drop from AUD 710 million to AUD 575-675 million [4] Specific Mines 1. **Pilbara** - FY2025 production reached 755,000 tons, exceeding guidance, with plans to increase to 820,000-870,000 tons in FY2026 [4] - FOB costs are expected to decrease to AUD 560-600 per ton [4] 2. **Marion Mountain** - Q2 production fell by 11% due to efforts to improve product grade, with an annual target of 514,000 tons [7] 3. **Wojena** - Q2 production increased by 30% to 166,000 tons, with costs dropping to AUD 641 per ton [7] - Annual production is projected at 502,000 tons [7] Market Conditions - The overall growth rate for major projects in FY2025 is limited, with a conservative outlook for FY2026 due to current low price environments [5] - Recent price increases above $700 may lead companies to adopt more aggressive production plans [5] Copper Mining Companies General Performance - In Q2 FY2025, 15 major overseas copper companies produced approximately 2.7 million tons, a 1.4% year-over-year decline but a 2.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][8] - For the first half of FY2025, total copper production was about 5.34 million tons, down 1.3% year-over-year [9] Company-Specific Insights - **Rio Tinto** saw a 9% increase in Q2 production, benefiting from improved underground capacity and ore grades [8] - **Glencore** experienced a 21% year-over-year decline due to low ore grades and recovery rates [8] Market Conditions - Q2 supply tightness is expected to support copper prices, with a continued tight supply forecast for the second half of the year [10] - The absence of significant economic downturns is likely to prevent substantial drops in copper prices, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] Additional Insights - The shutdown of the Jianxiao mine is expected to positively impact related companies, providing a potential turnaround for those near breakeven [6] - Zhongkuang Resources may benefit from stabilized lithium carbonate prices, with rising profits from copper and minor metals aiding in achieving market value targets [6]

铜周报—基本面承压，铜价震荡下行 周五中国 7 月经济数据不及预期，美国公布对等关税全部税率，美国非农就 业数据不及预期，且大幅下修前两月数据，美国经济衰退风险和降息预期同步上 升。夜间美元暴跌人民币大涨，市场走弱。今日中国汽车等机械行业数据乐观， 市场情绪好转，日内市场整体小幅走强，有色金属多数上涨。沪铜上涨，国际铜 上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 2025-8-4 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报 78330，现货报 78510，沪铜日内探底回升，现 货升水扩大至 180 点。今日现货基差升水小幅上升至 180 点，现货成交不佳。LME 现货贴水本周小幅收窄至-49 美元，外盘现货需求不佳。本周美铜库存大幅上升， 伦铜库存大幅上升，沪铜库存小幅下降。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价 小幅下降至 50.5 美元，国内现货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至 8.17，国际铜较 沪铜升水下降至 194 点，外盘比价小幅高于内盘，市场情绪偏弱。 技术上看，今日伦铜震荡小幅上涨，在 9670 美元附近运行。沪铜探底回升 小幅上涨，收于 78330，技术形态偏弱。沪铜成交持仓 ...

下游疲弱，承压运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 6 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，尾盘拉涨。美国供应管理协会（ISM）表示，其非制造业采购经 理人指数（PMI）从 6 月的 50.8 降至上月的 50.1。国内基本面来看，7 月 SMM 中国电解 铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回 升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划，目前冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏 损，目前淡季下需求疲软，市场交投情绪不温不火铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影 响出口需求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面价格。综合来看，下游 铜材需求疲弱，铜价承压运行，但目前库存压力依然不大，显性库存环比有去化，铜价 震荡承压，但低位库存及美联储降息预期下方支撑行情。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【冠通研究】 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 【基本面跟踪】 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday, indicating a correction from previous declines, but investors should remain cautious about weak demand impacting the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Price Movement - Copper prices on LME and COMEX are stabilizing, with LME prices unlikely to exceed COMEX prices in the short term [1] - The recent decline in COMEX copper has led to an oversold condition, which may slightly boost valuations in the other two copper markets [1] Demand Factors - Three bullish factors include: 1. Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries 2. Employment data causing a decline in the US dollar index 3. Clear support levels for copper prices [1] - Three bearish factors include: 1. Fluctuations in tariff policies 2. Tariff policies leading to a decrease in global demand 3. Adjustments in US copper tariff policies resulting in extremely high COMEX inventories [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term market sentiment for buying copper is still strong. Although copper is in the inventory accumulation period, the support at 77,000 is expected to be strong. However, the short - term spot market's support for copper prices is weak due to inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, closing at 78,580, and continued to run below the trend line. Spot copper rose 195 to 78,615, and the premium dropped 50 to 130. It is expected that the premium will continue to decline tomorrow. The premium of imported copper continued to be weak, with a rising trend in offers but large differences between buyers and sellers, and few transactions in the market. LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850 tons, and the 0 - 3C structure expanded to 52.73. The domestic spot market has limited acceptance of high - priced copper, and the inventory accumulation pressure at home and abroad weakens the support of the short - term spot market for copper prices [11]. 2. Industry News - Some domestic copper processing material export orders to the US are under pressure due to the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. High tariffs have led to a suspension of subsequent un - signed orders from US customers [12]. - Codelco must submit four reports regarding the El Teniente copper mine collapse incident [12]. - Baiyin Nonferrous has achieved cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement. As of the end of July, the electrolysis workshop of its copper business has produced 231,000 tons of cathode copper, with the A - grade copper grade rate reaching 96.31% [12].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78345，基差15，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月4日铜库存减2175至139575吨，上期所铜库存较上周减880吨至72543吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：铜价短期震荡 截至2025年8月1日，SHFE铜收盘价78400 元/吨，环比7月25日-1.07%；LME铜收盘价9633 美元/吨，环比 7月25日-1.66%。（1）宏观：美国7月非农就业人数低于预期，市场预计美联储9月降息概率大增，美元走 弱。（2）供需：美国宣布自8月1日起对进口铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品征收50%关税（但不含电解 铜），此前的库存套利逻辑结束，短期LME面临累库压力；国内线缆开工率低于去年同期，8-10月空调排 产同比下降，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回升以及贸易冲突逐 步消化，Q4铜价有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+4.5%，LME铜库存环比+11. ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-8-4 宏观方面，7 月美联储利率会议决定不降息，符合市场预期，但会后声明 叠加后续公布的非农就业数据不及预期使得市场对 9 月降息预期升温。美国 总统特朗普签署公告宣布对自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集型衍 生产品征收 50%的关税，铜输入原料（例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和 阳极铜）和铜废料不受关税约束，消息发布后 COMEX 铜暴跌，LME 铜小幅 跟跌。中美贸易谈判双方同意继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 24%部分如期 展期 90 天，但并未达成新的突破性协议。 总的来看，原料紧张及库存低位能够为铜价提供下跌的支撑，但目前整 体仍处淡季，无明显上行动能。市场仍等待美国与未达成贸易协议国家的谈 判结果，不确定性较高压制铜价，预计短期受宏观影响铜价仍震荡偏弱走势。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价短期震荡偏弱 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，部分冶炼厂仍面临亏损状态，加工费维持负数区间。上周漆 包线行业订单整体平稳，周尾受铜价下行带动，新增订单环比增长 1.68 个百 分点，推动开机率小幅回升至 78.2%。 ...

展望下半年，预计铜消费需求将延续稳中向好态势。其中，电力行业将成为核心增长动力。 电力领域用铜主要体现在两大投资指标：电网工程投资与电源工程投资。电网用铜涵盖高压输电线路、 变电站设备及配电系统等。2025年，国家电网全年投资有望首次突破6500亿元，同比增长约8%。若考 虑年中可能出台的逆周期调节政策，投资预期仍有上调空间。按每亿元电网投资带动800吨~1000吨铜 消费估算，2025年，电网工程耗铜量预计可达585万吨。 据国际能源署(IEA)《世界能源投资报告》，2025年，全球发电投资预计达1.01万亿美元，储能投资约 660亿美元。其中，中国能源投资占比超过25%。据此推算，2025年，中国电源工程投资额约为1.93万 亿元。若按每亿元电源投资带动200吨铜消费计算，电源工程耗铜量预计达386万吨，成为铜消费增长的 重要支柱。 今年上半年，沪铜价格整体呈现"成本推动+宏观扰动"驱动下的"阶梯式"上涨格局。尽管需求存在一定 隐忧，但矿石供需矛盾突出及区域性供应紧张，成为支撑铜价韧性的主导因素。 铜矿供应紧张难解国产废铜进入季节性淡季 2025年，国内冶炼厂与海外矿商已敲定下一年度铜精矿长单加工费为每吨 ...

Core Views - Low inventory and supply contradictions support the bottom, but the easing of tariff disturbances and the seasonal weakening of consumption will cause Shanghai copper to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the rhythm of inventory accumulation [5] - The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to 72,543 tons, and the recovery of import demand supports the tightness of the spot market [4] - The port inventory of copper concentrate has dropped to 560,900 tons, and the processing fee remains at a low level of -$42.63 per ton, increasing the pressure on smelting plants to cut production [4] - The United States only imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper. The decline in the COMEX premium has dragged down LME copper [4] - The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, and air conditioner production has entered the off-season. The end-users' acceptance of high prices is limited, which restricts the consumption elasticity [4] Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract is 78,400 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.07%, a position of 167,671 lots, and a trading volume of 80,943 lots [6] - The latest price of international copper is 69,530 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%, a position of 4,914 lots, and a trading volume of 4,289 lots [6] - The latest price of LME copper for three months is $9,803 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 11,075 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $566.95 per pound, with a weekly decline of 1.71%, a position of 104,219 lots, and a trading volume of 25,868 lots [6] Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 78,330 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1,120 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.41% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.9% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 620 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.78% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,120 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 710 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.89% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium is 110 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 130 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 54.17% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 80 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.48% [12] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 43.33% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium is 115 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 60 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 34.29% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (spot/three months) premium is -$51.71 per ton, with a weekly increase of $16.53 and a weekly decline rate of 24.22% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (three months/15 months) premium is -$92.25 per ton, with a weekly increase of $10.37 and a weekly decline rate of 10.11% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest price of copper import profit and loss is -249.88 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 232.62 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.21% [13] - The latest price of copper concentrate TC is -$42.75 per ton, with a weekly increase of $0.42 and a weekly decline rate of 0.97% [13] - The latest copper-aluminum ratio is 3.7801, with a weekly decline of 0.0635 and a weekly decline rate of 1.65% [13] - The latest refined scrap price difference is 805.43 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 35.31 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 4.2% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper is 18,083 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,424 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.11% [17] - The total warehouse receipt of international copper is 3,313 tons, with a weekly decline of 1,354 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.01% [17] - The inventory of Shanghai copper is 73,423 tons, with a weekly decline of 11,133 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.17% [17] - The registered warehouse receipt of LME copper is 108,225 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,375 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.89% [17] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME copper is 19,400 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 58.37% [17] - The inventory of LME copper is 127,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,775 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [19] - The registered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 109,453 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,404 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [19] - The unregistered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 143,978 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,246 tons and a weekly increase rate of 6.08% [19] - The inventory of COMEX copper is 253,431 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [19] - The port inventory of copper ore is 409,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 48,000 tons and a weekly decline rate of 10.5% [19] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21] - In June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 32.01%, a month-on-month increase of 3.08 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.55 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 51.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.25%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.35 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.01 percentage points [24] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.34969 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 14.757457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [26]