2025年12月24日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价涨幅不及预期，叠加多头止盈离场，盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月22日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨3.20% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1228.34点, 较上期上涨19.28% | | 12月19日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1473.90点，较上期上涨0.2% | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (美西航线) 792.06点, 较上期下跌0.9% | 欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,628.8 | 1,603.2 | 1,606.0 | 1,603.6 | -22.8 | -1.40 | 281 | 1890 | -66 | ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 集运指数（欧线）：近月震荡，远月关注加沙第二 阶段停火谈判进展 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2512 | 1,630.1 | 0.21% | 186 | 1,983 | -160 | 0.09 | 0.06 | | | EC2602 | 1,719.8 | 3.66% 31,624 | | 31,507 | -136 | 1.00 | 0.85 | | | EC2604 | 1,128.8 | 1.66% 4,225 | | 18,837 | 145 | 0.22 | 0.20 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 501 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货12月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2512 | 1,627.3 | 1,629.0 | 1,631.0 | 1,628.8 | 3.7 | 0. ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.0 | 0.06% | -41.8 | 100 | | 1956 | -27 | | | EC2602 | | 1871.8 | 8.84% | -282.6 | 52704 | | 36510 | 5003 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.8 | 3.37% | 422.4 | 11708 | | 20471 | 1634 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 2.46% | 269.2 | 587 | | 2184 | -36 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.2 | 2.27% | 103.0 | 256 | | 1197 | -91 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1061.0 | 1.02% | ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.0 | 0.9 | 0.06% | 100.0 | -46.24% | 1,956.0 | -1.36% | | EC2602 | 1,871.8 | 152.0 | 8.84% | 52,704.0 | 66.66% | 36,510.0 | 15.88% | | EC2604 | 1,166.8 | 38.0 | 3.37% | 11,708.0 | 177.11% | 20,471.0 | 8.67% | | EC26 ...

欧元区11月综合PMI初值52.4, 仅略低于10月数据52.5，继续稳定在荣枯分水岭50以上, 基本符合预期。服务业与制造业分化, 服务业PMI初值为 53.1, 不仅高于前值53, 而且优于预期值52.8, 录得一年半以来最佳月度表现。欧元区11月综合PMI初值为52.4, 较10月份的52.5轻微回落。 欧元 区12月Sentix投资者信心指数-6.2,预期-7,前值-7.4。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上开0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。10月份，综合PMI产出指数49.7，比上月下降0.3 个百分点，为2023年以来首次降至荣枯线以下。 美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55，预期54.6，前值54.8。 美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8，为连续第二个月上涨，预期54.6，前值54.6, 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 12月19日主力合 ...

2025年12月22日 集运日报 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上开0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。10月份，综合PMI产出指数49.7，比上月下降0.3 个百分点，为2023年以来首次降至荣枯线以下。 美国11月标普全球服务业PM1初值55，预期54.6，前值54.8。 美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值54.8，为连续第二个月上涨，预期54.6，前值54.6, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月19日 12月15日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点,较上期上涨3.20% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1510.56点,较上期上涨0.1% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1067.29点,较上期上涨0.30% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 924.36点, 较上期下跌3.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1228.34点, 较上期上涨19.28% 12月19日 12月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数$CFl公布价格1552.92点,较上期上涨46.46点 中国出口集装箱运价指 ...

| | | | | | A 11 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/22 | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1630.1 | 0.35% | -119.5 | 186 | | 1983 | -160 | | | EC2602 | | 1719.8 | 3.07% | -209.2 | 31624 | | 31507 | -136 | | | EC2604 | | 1128.8 | 1.80% | 381.8 | 4225 | | 18837 | 145 | | | EC2606 | | 1288.3 | 1.40% | 222.3 | 437 | | 2220 | -52 | | | EC2608 | | 1453.2 | 0.85% | 57.4 | 87 | | 1288 | -28 | | | EC2610 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Market sentiment is bearish, with a decline in bullish sentiment. Some liner companies' freight rates in early January are lower than the announced increases, and the main contract is fluctuating weakly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Shipping Index Data - On December 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 924.36 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1060.86 points, up 10.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1064.13 points, up 9.98% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1029.8 points, up 17.28% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1506.461 points, up 108.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1538 USD/TEU, up 9.86% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1780 USD/FEU, up 14.84% from the previous period [2]. - On December 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1118.07 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1470.55 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 798.95 points, down 2.3% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The eurozone's November composite PMI flash was 52.4, slightly lower than October's 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The services PMI flash was 53.1, higher than the previous value and the expected value, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half [2]. - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, better than the expected - 7 and the previous - 7.4 [2]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business levels. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [3]. - The US November S&P Global services PMI flash was 55, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI flash was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, better than the expected 54.6 and the previous 54.6 [3]. Main Contract Data - On December 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1668.8, with a decline of 3.06%, a trading volume of 27,000 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, a decrease of 318 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract has rebounded after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts has slowed down. Risk - takers were previously advised to take a light - position long in the main contract, and now all positions are advised to be closed. No further positions are recommended, and no positions should be held without stop - loss. Stop - loss should be set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: All contracts are advised to take profit when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].