黄金周四（9月4日）早盘大跌至3511附近，随后回升震荡上涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘上涨至3359附近，尾盘震荡，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、金价回调的核心诱因 2、美元、债市与股市的联动影响 美元短期反弹施压黄金：周四美元指数上涨0.16%至98.28，因黄金以美元计价，美元走强降低其对非美货币持有者的吸引力。市场对非农数据高度敏感，高 盛等机构认为数据强弱将直接决定美元后续走势。 债市收益率下滑支撑黄金中长期逻辑：美国两年期和10年期国债收益率分别跌至3.59%和4.167%（四个月低点），收益率曲线趋平，反映市场对降息的强烈 预期（芝商所FedWatch工具显示9月降息概率近100%）。低收益率降低持有黄金的机会成本，利好黄金作为零息资产的吸引力。 股市新高与黄金的"双重博弈"：标普500、道指、纳指周四均创历史新高，科技股表现强劲。股市上涨或分散部分避险资金，但市场对美联储降息的信心仍 支撑黄金中长期走势。 3、今日重点关注数据—非农 今日20:30，美国8月失业率、8月季调后非农就业人口、平均每小时工资年率、月率。市场普遍预期非农报告将显示新增就业7.5万个、失业率升至4.3%， ...

Group 1: Impact of Non-Farm Data on Gold Prices - Non-farm data releases can cause significant volatility in the gold market, with a negative correlation between gold and the US dollar [1] - Strong non-farm data typically leads to a decline in gold prices as it suggests a healthy economic recovery and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - Conversely, weak non-farm data indicates economic slowdown, leading to expectations of monetary easing and a rise in gold prices as it becomes a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2: Market Reactions to Non-Farm Data - If non-farm data falls short of expectations but is not entirely weak, the gold market may experience a choppy trading environment, resulting in unclear price direction [2] Group 3: Company Support for Investors - The company, Lingsheng Precious Metals, offers a reliable trading platform that allows investors to quickly observe gold price fluctuations and achieve significant investment results in a short time [3] - As a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, Lingsheng has maintained a leading position for 14 years, providing timely market information and real-time analysis during non-farm data releases [4] - The platform utilizes the globally recognized MT4 trading system, ensuring stability and rapid order execution during volatile market conditions [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies and Risk Management - Lingsheng Precious Metals provides a variety of trading strategies and risk management tools, enabling investors to respond swiftly to market changes following non-farm data releases [6] - The platform supports flexible risk control measures, allowing for low-threshold trading starting from 0.01 lots, which helps investors seize more profit opportunities [6] Group 5: Summary of Non-Farm Trading Insights - Non-farm data not only triggers short-term volatility in gold prices but also influences long-term interest rate decisions, providing directional clues for future price movements [7] - The company emphasizes the importance of making decisive actions in a rapidly changing market, supported by its precise market analysis and advanced trading technology [7]

Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report on September 5 is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. job market and will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with historical data indicating a high probability of gold price increases around such events [1] - The market is currently pricing in a 100% expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a possibility of a more substantial 50 basis point "compensatory cut" [4] - Investor sentiment tends to polarize before and after the non-farm data release, with some opting to take positions based on anticipated market movements while others prefer a cautious approach, waiting for clearer trends [4] Group 2 - The Huangyu Global trading platform offers efficient execution with second-level trading capabilities, allowing investors to capitalize on rapid market changes [2] - The platform supports T+0 trading and allows for both long and short positions, enabling investors to react promptly to market fluctuations [3] - Huangyu Global provides real-time financial news and expert analysis, helping investors make informed decisions and avoid impulsive trading [4]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut environment, which is the primary factor driving gold prices up, leading to a significant surge on Monday, reaching around 3490 [2] - Following the strong performance on Monday, gold is expected to maintain its upward trend on Tuesday, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing highs [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance at 3502 and support at 3465, suggesting a wait for adjustments before entering long positions [4] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have surged in line with international market trends, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a high of 812, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4] - International silver prices have also shown strength, currently around 40.8, with a key support level at 40, suggesting potential for further upside [4] - The Shanghai silver contract has reached a new high of 9940, with a clear bullish trend, but caution is advised against entering short positions until a peak is confirmed [5] Group 3 - International crude oil prices are expected to continue rising, with support at 62.5 and a target of 68 to 70 if the price breaks above 65 [5] - Domestic fuel oil has also seen an increase, currently at 2860, with expectations of reaching 3000 if the upward trend continues [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a significant increase observed, reaching a peak of $3453 before closing at $3447, marking four consecutive days of gains [1][3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have created an upward cycle for gold [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the gold market may be overbought, and potential uncertainties over the weekend could lead to price fluctuations [1][3] Group 2 - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at $3439, with strong support at $3432-$3423, while resistance levels are noted at $3454-$3458 and strong resistance at $3466-$3470 [3] - The market is expected to react to upcoming economic reports, including the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and non-farm payroll data, which could push prices towards $3500 [3] - The trading strategy recommended is to focus on buying on dips, with a suggested entry point around $3440 and a target of $3455, while maintaining a stop-loss at $3330 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD index remains stable but is highly sensitive to economic data and Federal Reserve policies, reflecting a tug-of-war between policy expectations and economic indicators [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - Employment data significantly influences the USD; recent revisions showed a decrease of 258,000 in non-farm payrolls for May and June, impacting market sentiment [3]. - If September's non-farm data indicates continued employment weakness, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may increase, potentially pressuring the USD [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest that rate cuts remain a possibility amid slowing economic growth [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, with some officials suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if dovish sentiments prevail [3]. Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance for the USD index is identified at 98.45–98.50, with a key resistance zone at 98.80–98.85; a breakthrough could expand upward potential [4]. - Support levels are noted at 98.00–98.05 and more critically at 97.80–97.85; breaking these levels may trigger a technical correction [4]. - The USD is currently exhibiting a range-bound pattern between 98.00 and 98.80, with market volatility expected around key support and resistance levels [4].

来源：张扬超说 今日黄金还将会延续上涨，但是短期之内破位区间的可能性不大。虽然上周五的美联储主席鲍威尔暗示九月降息25个基点的可 能性几乎是板上钉钉，但这在此前的市场预期中已经大幅兑现，因此这对短期的多头可能会产生够劲儿不足。 那么回到当前的盘面，基于上周五见底拉升后的强势格局，今天多头震荡后继续向上运行的可能性较大，上方短期还是要关注 3400以及3430这两个位置。如果破位，上方空间就是一马平川！ 否则还将会重回震荡格局，然后就只能等待下周非农数据的表现了！ 今日盘面来讲，回落等多为主，下方3359以及3350是理想的介入区域，如果日内回落且在此区域构筑小级别底部信号，那么可 以直接入场！ 总体来讲，短期强势格局向上延续，回落等多是今天主要思路！ 当然，如果八月份非农就业能够再次推动黄金向上走一波，那么九月份黄金爆发大单边的可能性会更高！ 总的来讲，现在的黄金如果要打破四个月的震荡周期，还需要有更强劲儿的动能去推动，而一旦区间破位，那么动能和空间也 将是巨大的！ 短期来讲，八月份的非农和失业率将会是市场衡量美联储九月降息力度的依据！ ...

Core Insights - The latest non-farm payroll data significantly impacts the U.S. economy, influencing stock markets, gold, and silver prices [1][3][4] - Strong non-farm data may lead to accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing borrowing costs for companies and potentially pressuring the stock market [1][4] - Conversely, weak non-farm data could ease rate hike pressures, providing support for the stock market [1][4] Impact on Financial Markets - Non-farm data directly affects the U.S. dollar's exchange rate, which in turn influences gold and silver prices [3][4] - Strong non-farm data typically reduces demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price declines, while weak data increases demand and drives prices up [3][4] - Silver prices are influenced by both safe-haven demand and industrial usage, making them sensitive to economic conditions reflected in non-farm data [3][4] Investment Strategy Considerations - Investors should analyze non-farm data in conjunction with economic outlook, monetary policy, and market sentiment to formulate effective investment strategies [4] - In the current economic landscape, both gold and silver markets present opportunities and risks, necessitating cautious monitoring of market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data has significant implications for the gold and silver markets, influencing both the U.S. dollar exchange rate and market sentiment [1][3]. Impact on Gold and Silver Markets - Non-farm payroll data affects gold and silver prices primarily through its impact on the U.S. dollar; strong data typically strengthens the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, while weak data may weaken the dollar, providing support for these precious metals [1][3]. - The current trend of a slowing recovery in the U.S. job market may signal increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets amid rising global economic uncertainty [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to observe market reactions to non-farm data releases to adjust their investment strategies accordingly; if the data leads to a weaker dollar, gold prices may rise, suggesting an opportunity to increase gold holdings [3][4]. - Silver, while also a safe-haven asset, is influenced by industrial demand, making its price sensitive to economic activity; thus, non-farm data can impact silver demand and pricing [3][4]. Market Reactions - The release of non-farm payroll data can also lead to volatility in the stock market; strong employment data may boost market confidence, while disappointing data could raise concerns about economic slowdown, affecting stock performance [3][4]. Conclusion - Monitoring changes in non-farm payroll data, alongside factors like market sentiment, dollar exchange rates, and inflation expectations, is crucial for formulating effective investment strategies in the precious metals market [4].

Group 1 - The recent firing of the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics raises concerns about the politicization of data collection, particularly regarding the July CPI data [1] - There have been significant revisions to non-farm payroll data, with over 800,000 jobs being revised downward last year, indicating a pattern of over-reporting by approximately 60,000 jobs each month [1] - The non-farm payroll figures for June were revised from 147,000 to 14,000, and for May from 144,000 to 19,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [1]