Core Insights - The global commodity futures market has shown a clear divergence in performance during the first three quarters of the year, with the CRB price index closing at 300.6 points, reflecting a cumulative increase of 1.31% [1] - Precious metals, particularly U.S. platinum futures, have significantly outperformed other commodities, with platinum futures showing the highest cumulative increase of 77.45% [2][3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that the macro environment for commodities may stabilize due to the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, although the divergence in commodity performance is expected to continue due to fundamental differences among various commodities [1][5] Commodity Performance Overview - Among the 32 major global commodity futures, 12 commodities achieved positive returns in the first three quarters, representing 37.5% of the total [1] - The top-performing commodities include: - U.S. platinum futures: 77.45% - COMEX silver futures: 60.12% - COMEX gold futures: 47.35% - U.S. palladium futures: 42.11% [2][3] - Conversely, several commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE orange juice futures dropping by 50.23%, and ICE cocoa futures down by 41.91% [4][5] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the strong performance of platinum is supported by both macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with a projected supply-demand gap for platinum expected to reach a historically high level in 2025 [5] - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is expected to further support commodity prices, particularly gold, which is projected to maintain a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues [6] - In the oil market, an increase in supply coupled with seasonal demand decline is expected to create downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude oil futures projected to range between $59 and $74 per barrel [6][7] - For copper, the combination of limited supply growth due to production incidents and strong demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to positively influence prices, with forecasts suggesting a trading range of $9,800 to $11,000 per ton [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is experiencing a historic opportunity, with international gold prices reaching a record high of $3707 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September [1] - The three main factors supporting the continued rise in gold prices are the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical risks, and increasing demand for gold from global central banks [2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 4%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which has historically led to an increase in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Central banks are becoming net buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces as of August 2025, marking a continuous increase for ten months [5] - In the second quarter, global central banks collectively added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating a structural demand shift that differs from short-term speculative buying [5] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in an upward trend, and any significant pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity, supported by the Fed's rate cut cycle and geopolitical uncertainties [6] Group 3 - Several Wall Street institutions have raised their 2026 gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, highlighting the historic opportunity in the gold market [7] - A promotional activity by a leading precious metals company offers a reduced trading cost of $26 per lot for investors who deposit $3000, facilitating easier market entry [7]

Group 1 - The new U.S. government's attempts to reshape the global landscape through diplomatic mediation and economic pressure have faced significant setbacks, particularly in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global tariff wars, marking a severe policy deviation since 1945 [2][4][18] - The U.S. has struggled to effectively coordinate with European partners in mediating the Russia-Ukraine situation, leading to a perception of isolation in its diplomatic efforts [4][6] - The imposition of tariffs on imports from countries like China, Japan, and South Korea has revealed weaknesses in U.S. policy, as these nations have resisted additional restrictions, impacting U.S. economic interests [6][14] Group 2 - The U.S. has shifted its beef and soybean imports from domestic sources to Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a 20% increase in supply while maintaining stable prices [8] - The suspension of Boeing aircraft deliveries has led to over $20 billion in losses for the U.S. aviation industry, prompting a 30% increase in domestic production of the C919 aircraft [8][16] - The U.S. has implemented strict licensing for rare earth exports, causing delays in military production and increasing costs, with a 15% delay in F-35 components [10][12] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has exacerbated economic pressures, with bond yields rising from 4% to 4.5% and a 10% fluctuation in the dollar's exchange rate [10][12] - The U.S. has seen a gradual reduction in its holdings of Treasury bonds, dropping from $784.3 billion at the beginning of the year to $730.7 billion by July, marking a 16-year low [12][14] - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings has led to increased volatility in yields, complicating U.S. financing efforts [14][18] Group 4 - The failure of U.S. mediation efforts has emboldened Russia and accelerated the trend of de-dollarization in global trade [18] - The U.S. is advised to continue reducing its Treasury bond holdings and diversify into gold and euros to safeguard its interests while promoting the internationalization of the renminbi [18]

值得注意的是，华夏基金认为，黄金的定价逻辑正在发生深层次变化。过去，金价更多与美元利率、通 胀预期直接挂钩。而如今，在去美元化趋势、全球央行购金需求、货币信用体系重构等因素的推动下， 黄金逐渐成为新一轮金融秩序博弈中的核心资产。 推荐大家看 来源：江苏新闻 编辑：周希惠 责编：王蜜安 审核：江 川 终审：许昌亮 9月30日，伦敦现货黄金价格盘中再创历史新高，成功突破3850美元/盎司关口，最高达到每盎司 3871.73美元。但目前已经回调跌到3819.47美元/盎司。 实际上，这轮金价上涨行情已经持续了7天，不断突破前高，此前的高点是9月23日盘中达到的每盎司 3791.08美元。 对于黄金短时间内不断刷新历史纪录的原因，华夏基金分析称，一方面，美联储进入降息通道。降息削 弱了美元的吸引力，提升了黄金的配置价值。另一方面，全球范围内的避险需求依然旺盛。美国债务高 企，地缘政治不确定性加剧叠加各国央行持续购金，都成为金价的底层支撑。 + ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about the country's growing debt, which is seen as a new driver for gold prices to rise by the end of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed $3,870, with Comex gold futures reaching above $3,900 [1]. - BMO Capital Markets has significantly raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting an average gold price of around $3,900 per ounce in Q4 2025, an 8% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Analysts expect gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce next year and project an average price of $4,400 per ounce by 2026, a 26% increase from earlier forecasts [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Analysts note that geopolitical and financial system changes over the past 2-3 years have led to lasting shifts in gold demand [4]. - Concerns about U.S. debt levels are becoming more prominent, with analysts identifying these worries as a key driver of gold's price increase [4]. - The growing interest in gold as a hedge against long-term currency devaluation is evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs [4]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - BMO expects silver to outperform gold in the near term, forecasting an average price of $45 per ounce in Q4, a 41% increase from previous estimates [5]. - The silver price is projected to reach $50 per ounce by Q2 next year, with an average price of $49.50 per ounce in 2026, a 57% increase from earlier predictions [5]. - Strong industrial demand is expected to support silver prices, with analysts highlighting its potential for greater elasticity compared to gold due to its industrial applications [6].

刚刚创下新高的黄金 突然回调 9月30日A股收盘之后，现货黄金价格大幅跳水，盘中向下跌破3800美元/盎司，日内下跌超0.8%，此前盘中一度大涨1%刷新纪录至3871美元/盎司。现货白 银跌1.88%，报46.02美元/盎司。 实际上，这轮金价上涨行情已经持续了7天，不断突破前高，此前的高点是9月23日盘中达到的每盎司3791.08美元。 国内金饰价格上涨 自年初以来，国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步，持续攀升，年内国际黄金价格涨幅已接近43%，国内黄金价格上涨约38%。 "黄金价格上涨是美联储政策转向、全球央行购金潮以及地缘政治风险等多重因素共同作用的结果。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受记者采 访时表示，全球央行连续大规模增持黄金为黄金价格构筑了坚实的底座。"全球央行已连续3年每年增持黄金超过1000吨，约占全球黄金年需求量的 20%。"咨询公司Metals Focus的数据显示，自2022年以来，全球央行净购金量每年均超过1000吨，预计2025年将达900吨，约为2016—2021年年均水平的2 倍。各国央行大举购金主要出于"去美元化"的考虑，尤其是在2022年西方国家冻结俄罗斯外 ...

金价飙升，黄金市场波澜壮阔，正经历一场由多重因素交织而成的深刻变革。这场变革，从国庆假期前 夕国内金价的历史性突破可见一斑。老庙黄金率先突破1115元/克大关，周生生、老凤祥等品牌紧随其 后，纷纷站上1110元/克的关口。与此同时，国际金价也一路高歌猛进，站上3808.84美元/盎司，9月累 计涨幅超过350美元，气势如虹。 这场金价的"狂飙突进"并非偶然，而是地缘政治动荡、经济政策调整以及市场情绪等多重因素共同作用 的结果。 投资类黄金与回收市场同样呈现出一片火热景象。周大福黄金回收价已达829元/克，较月初上涨超过40 元/克。回收价格的快速攀升，反映出市场对黄金长期价值的认可。但与此同时，也需要警惕部分"高价 回收"陷阱，这些陷阱可能利用消费者对行情不熟悉，实施诈骗。 央行需求与地缘政治的双重驱动 中国人民银行已连续10个月增持黄金，储备量高达7402万盎司。放眼全球，各国央行购金量已连续三年 超过1000吨/年，新兴市场国家纷纷通过增持黄金，降低对外汇储备的依赖，加速"去美元化"战略。央 行的持续购入，无疑为黄金价格提供了坚实的长期支撑。 与此同时，国际局势的紧张也为黄金的避险属性增添了动力。中东冲突 ...

对于黄金短时间内不断刷新历史纪录的原因，华夏基金分析称，一方面，美联储进入降息通道。降息削 弱了美元的吸引力，提升了黄金的配置价值。另一方面，全球范围内的避险需求依然旺盛。美国债务高 企，地缘政治不确定性加剧叠加各国央行持续购金，都成为金价的底层支撑。 来源：内蒙古晨报 刚刚，现货金银快速下跌，现货黄金盘中向下跌破3800美元/盎司，日内下跌超0.8%，此前盘中一度大 涨1%刷新记录新高至3871美元/盎司。现货白银跌1.88%，报46.02美元/盎司。 实际上，这轮金价上涨行情已经持续了7天，不断突破前高，此前的高点是9月23日盘中达到的每盎司 3791.08美元。 值得注意的是，华夏基金认为，黄金的定价逻辑正在发生深层次变化。过去，金价更多与美元利率、通 胀预期直接挂钩。而如今，在去美元化趋势、全球央行购金需求、货币信用体系重构等因素的推动下， 黄金逐渐成为新一轮金融秩序博弈中的核心资产。 来源：浙江之声 ...

近年来，美国凭借美元霸权，主导了全球金融体系超过半个世纪，美元不仅是全球贸易的核心，也深深嵌入了美国的经济政策。 随着中国、俄罗斯等新兴经济体崛起，以及许多国家对美国政策的不满，去美元化的趋势正在加速。 42个国家正努力减少对美元的依赖，推动本国数字货币的发展。 美国靠美元当 "世界霸王"，印钱想让中国百姓买单？42国联手破局！ 美元能够成为全球经济的主导货币，并非一蹴而就。 其历史背景源于20世纪初，特别是在两次世界大战期间，全球经济的重心逐渐转移到美国。 美国的地理位置和强大的生产能力，使得其在战争期间成了唯一没有直接遭受大规模破坏的工业大国。 在此期间，尤其是第二次世界大战，全球约75%的黄金储备被美国所吸纳。 战后，美国为了巩固自己的经济优势，提出了建立布雷顿森林体系的计划，并成功地推行。 布雷顿森林体系的核心思想就是将美元与黄金挂钩，美元成为全球唯一的储备货币。 在这一体系下，各国的国际贸易和结算都需要使用美元，这为美国提供了巨大的经济优势。 在此背景下，世界各国的金融体系和贸易都变得与美元息息相关。 美国通过美元不断扩大自己的影响力，其他国家也逐渐形成了依赖美元的局面。 这一体系维持了多达数十年， ...

| 1. 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 2. 避险属性演变逻辑 . | | 3. 货币属性演变逻辑 . | | 4. 商品属性演变逻辑 . | | 5. 技术分析 . | | 6.从多空博弈的角度看未来行情发展的方向 23 | | 7. 国内贵金属产业链概况 | | 8. 全球贵金属产业链概况 | | き表声明 . | 1.行情回顾 图 1：沪金主连本轮牛市关键节点 2025 年以来，贵金属继续上攻但金银出现分化。黄金多次连创历史新高，伦敦金最高涨至 3057.14 美元/盎司，Comex 金主力最高涨至 3065.2 美元/盎司，国内沪金主力最高涨至 711.24 元/克。白银在 黄金新高后，跟涨缓慢，多次承压回落。伦敦银最高涨至 34.224 美元/盎司，距离 2024 年 10 月创出 的 34.863 美元/盎司仍有空间，距离 2011 年 4 月的历史最高 49.840 美元/盎司仍然云泥之别，国内 沪银主力最高涨至 8444 元/千克，距离 2024 年 5 月的 8733 元/千克仍有距离。 开年以来贵金属主要逻辑在于：一是避险情绪升温。全球经济政治体系重构推动货币体系重构。 春节期间， ...