汤继成认为，由于市场担忧美国政策的可信度及财政可持续性，美国"例外主义"正受到威胁，导致美国 国债和美元遭抛售。这一趋势预示着美国GDP增长将放缓，经济衰退风险升温，投资者开始寻求全球非 美元资产的投资机会。相关资金流向的转变已体现在欧洲股票，以及作为法定货币贬值对冲工具的黄金 的强劲表现中。 "去美元化"趋势对亚洲经济尤为有利，区内货币升值亦为央行提供宽松政策的空间。此外，对美国债务 可持续性的担忧升温，促使部分资金回流亚洲。亚洲经济体目前持有约8.6万亿美元的美国股票及固定 收益资产，若出现部分资金回流，将显著支持区内货币，并提升区内股票及固定收益市场表现。 【导读】安联投资：看好中国、印度及澳大利亚经济及股市，中国国债有望成为亚洲新一代"避风港"资 产 6月26日，安联投资全球固定收益副主管及亚洲固定收益首席投资总监曾铮、安联投资亚太区股票首席 投资总监薛永辉和安联投资亚太区高级经济师汤继成一同接受了记者的采访。 安联投资认为，下半年，美国关税政策、消费者信心、通胀及经济衰退风险等关键因素将主导经济格 局，而中东的军事行动亦可能进一步影响市场情绪。 安联投资预计，在当前充满不确定性的宏观经济环境中，亚洲 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment is optimistic about the economic and stock market prospects of China, India, and Australia, viewing Chinese government bonds as a potential new "safe haven" asset in Asia [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Key factors such as U.S. tariff policies, consumer confidence, inflation, and recession risks will dominate the economic landscape in the second half of the year [2]. - Allianz Investment anticipates that the uncertain macroeconomic environment will make Asian fixed income and equity markets attractive for global investors due to favorable demographics, robust fundamentals, and accelerated regional integration [2][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - The trend of "de-dollarization" is beneficial for Asian economies, with a potential return of funds to Asia supporting local currencies and enhancing the performance of regional stocks and fixed income markets [4]. - Allianz Investment is particularly optimistic about Asian economies driven by domestic demand, with room for policy rate cuts and less exposure to specific political and economic concerns, especially in China, India, and Australia [4]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - Asian stocks have performed well year-to-date, with strong valuation attractiveness and growth potential in major markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea [8]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a commitment to boosting domestic demand and strengthening trade ties, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [8]. - China's service industry is emerging as a global leader, with Chinese intellectual properties in AI, gaming, film, and animation gaining international traction, showcasing the global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises [8].

智通财经APP获悉，中金策略分析师刘刚在自媒体平台表示，美股近期再创历史新高，纳指跑赢全球多数指数。该行曾在4月8日提示不建议继续做空。市场 对"股债汇三杀"的担忧更多源于短期流动性冲击和长期外推预期，而非基本面恶化。2025年下半年展望中，中金认为"去美元化"共识存在预期高度趋同的问 题，且难以提供短期操作指引。美元小幅下跌对美股有利，市场误区在于将"去美元化"与美元走弱直接关联。不过，三季度仍需关注关税谈判、债务上限等 潜在扰动因素。 中金主要观点如下： 该行在4月8日底部附近提示，纳指估值跌到20倍估值逐步具备吸引力，至少也不应该再做空。在"股债汇三杀"担忧最严重的时候提示，这种担忧更多是短期 流动性冲击和基于外推预期的一些长期担心所致。 在2025下半年展望中，该行并不特别认同"去美元"的共识，提示这一预期高度趋同、而且主要是基于无法证实和证伪的宏大叙事。宏大叙事的最大问题就是 无法提供短期操作指引，究竟是5年后兑现、还是今年内兑现，究竟是跌50%、还是跌5%，都难以回答。 美元的下跌并非都是"去美元化"的体现，而且小幅的下跌对美股反而是有利的，市场的误区在于直接将去美元化和美元弱画等号，把美元弱和美 ...

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中 最低触及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 2025.06. 28 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金 在经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增 加，美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区 间还需等待更多触发因素，下一波上涨行情的启动还需等待，预计后期走势先抑后扬。 海外多重风险因素接连缓和，对金价形成短线的利空因素。永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，从 中长期来看黄金价格驱动逻辑不变，即美元、美债信用走弱趋势下，金价获得支撑。随着美国关税不 确定性和赤字率上行，全球"去美 ...

今年上半年，关税风险推动金价迭创新高，伦敦金一度站上3500美元/盎司，年内最高涨幅一度达到 35%。 "4月份开始，黄金价格因避险资金集中配置而出现井喷式增长，但随后出现了调整，这主要是因为市场 对于历史高点的对标和局部拥挤度过高所致。"博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥分析称，黄金市场的波动性 上涨主要是由于逆全球化、美元信用减弱以及美国关税战等因素共同作用的结果。 中东局势缓和等因素，令近期震荡走低的金价再度下挫。 当地时间6月27日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.85%报3286美元/盎司，盘中最低触 及3266美元/盎司，刷新近一个月低位。 至此，国际金价已经连跌两周，近两个交易周累计下跌约5%，再度失守3300美元/盎司关口。 东证衍生品研究院宏观首席分析师徐颖分析称，上半年美国经济在关税政策的扰动下波动增加，黄金在 经历了投机炒作后，步入区间震荡阶段。中长期看，美国对外关税政策的反复、地缘政治博弈的增加， 美联储降息临近、缩表接近尾声，黄金仍然受益于不确定性以及流动性的释放。 技术面看，金价三次冲刺3400美元～3500美元的区间高点没能成功。徐颖认为，突破当前的震荡区间还 需等待更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the geopolitical and financial implications of this shift [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar's Challenges - The US is facing a debt crisis, exacerbated by failed plans such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" which aimed to convert US debt into long-term, interest-free bonds [3][5]. - The "Pennsylvania Plan," led by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, aims to stimulate domestic demand for US debt through financial repression and the promotion of dollar stablecoins [5][7]. - This strategy represents a high-stakes gamble, relying on domestic investors to absorb large amounts of US debt and the global reliance on the dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Risks and Consequences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as the Treasury's control over monetary policy could lead to corruption and mismanagement [7]. - Artificially lowering interest rates to manage debt could undermine the dollar's credibility, potentially leading to severe inflation [7][9]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves as a sign of diminishing confidence in the dollar [9][11]. Group 3: Rise of the Chinese Yuan - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a response to the instability of the dollar system, prompting global capital to seek new safe havens [11]. - However, the yuan's rise presents challenges, as China's financial system must demonstrate resilience and depth to handle this influx of wealth [11]. - The future of the yuan as a reliable "hard currency" depends on China's ability to reform its financial markets, advance internationalization, and improve its exchange rate mechanism [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) and safe-haven demand, while being influenced by variables such as the US dollar exchange rate, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The market is in a unique phase where high real interest rates suppress gold prices, but safe-haven demand and de-dollarization trends support them [2] - The Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the timing of potential rate cuts remains contentious [4] - US CPI remains stubbornly above 3%, indicating a slowdown in the disinflation process [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East [4] - In 2023, global central banks net purchased 1,037 tons of gold, marking the second-highest level in history [4] Group 2: Historical Analysis and Patterns - Analyzing the past 20 years of gold price movements reveals key patterns regarding pullback magnitudes and durations [5] - In non-extreme crises, a 20%-25% pullback often indicates a mid-term bottom [7] - Rapid declines (over 15% in 1-3 months) tend to have a high probability of subsequent rebounds [7] - Gold typically begins to form a bottom 6-12 months before a shift in Federal Reserve policy [7] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The long-term upward trend line since 2020 is positioned between $1,850 and $1,900 per ounce [10] - The 200-week moving average support has risen to $1,800, which has never been effectively breached in the past decade [10] - Key Fibonacci retracement levels are at $1,880 (38.2% retracement) and $1,750 (50% retracement in extreme risk scenarios) [10] - Institutional accumulation costs are concentrated in the $1,900 to $1,950 range [10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Aggressive investors may consider starting to accumulate gold if prices drop to $1,900 (approximately 5% decline) [11] - Conservative investors should wait for a breach below $1,850 (10% decline) before entering [11] - Technical signals for entry include a daily RSI below 30 and a close above the 20-day moving average [11] - The global cash cost of gold mining is around $1,300, providing a significant margin of safety below $1,600 [11] Group 5: Tactical and Strategic Opportunities - Tactical opportunities may arise if gold prices fall below $1,900, while a panic sell-off to $1,750 could represent a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity [16] - The ultimate signal for a major upward trend in gold is typically seen within six months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [16] - High-profile institutions like Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater suggest that gold could maintain a range of $1,900 to $2,100 under soft landing scenarios, and potentially rise to $2,500 during a recession [16]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 稳定币影响初探 >>点击图片查看全文<< 今年5月，美国和中国香港接连就稳定币监管立法，引发市场关注。稳定币之"稳定"在于其作为一种加密货币，通过与其他资产（通常为法定货币） 挂钩来稳定其价格，区别于比特币等价格波动较高的原生加密货币，稳定币用途更多在于行使货"币"作为交换媒介和计价单位的功能。在币值稳定的 前提下，稳定币依托区块链有望使跨境支付更快速、更廉价、更便捷 。稳定币一方面有助于稳固美元储备地位，另一方面当前美元主导的国际货币 体系生变，国际货币体系正在加速重构，若其他国家发行的稳定币并不锚定美元，也可能进一步挑战美元的储备货币地位。稳定币的发展对美元影响 如何仍需要进一步研究和探索。结合中金研究行业组的观点，我们认为稳定币发展可能相关的企业主要包括：银行IT服务商，电信运营商，加密货币 交易所，作为稳定币交易通道的金融机构等。 图表：美元在全球外汇储备中占比有所下降但仍是主导 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 2025.06.22 | 李求索 张歆瑜等 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 02 策略 Str ...

市场概述 尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但受中东局势缓和和降息预期的推动，纳指、标普创历史新高。谷歌涨近3%。耐克财报后收涨15%，创四年来最佳单日表 现。 两年期美债收益率涨2.86个基点，本周累计跌15.97个基点。美元指数周五跌约0.1%，本周累计跌超1.3%、收于2022年2月以来的最低。由于特朗普终止与加 拿大的贸易谈判，加元兑美元一度大跌0.9%。 现货黄金跌破3300美元，日内跌幅一度超2.1%，黄金连续第二周下跌。原油仍处窄幅震荡，WTI原油本周累计大跌超11%，这是近27个月来最糟糕的一 周。 亚洲时段，AH股午后回落，沪指跌0.7%，银行股集体调整，恒指跌0.2%，小米盘中创历史新高，商品、国债齐涨。 华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 纽约Talk第二季上新 | 33年交易老将，华尔街前线洞察 了解详情>> 要闻 中国央行Q2货币政策例会：要实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节。 中国1至5月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降1.1%，5月单月同比下降9.1%。 特朗普炮轰加拿大数字税，终止所有美加贸易谈判，威胁征新关税，美财长警告301调查将至。欧盟和美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence among investment banks regarding the future price of gold, with some predicting a decline while others foresee substantial increases [2][6]. Group 1: Bullish Outlook - The bullish camp argues that ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties will support gold prices. Société Générale believes gold is a strong investment and a hedge against geopolitical risks, maintaining a target price of around $3450 per ounce for the summer [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its bullish stance, projecting gold prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to structural demand from central banks [4]. - UBS forecasts gold prices to be approximately $3500 per ounce by the end of this year, while Bank of America suggests a strong possibility of prices hitting $4000 in the second half of the year [5]. Group 2: Bearish Outlook - The bearish camp, led by Citigroup, predicts that gold's strong performance will not continue, forecasting a drop to below $3000 per ounce by the end of this year and between $2500 to $2700 by mid-2026, representing a decline of 20-25% from current levels [6]. - Analysts at Citigroup attribute this potential decline to weakening investment demand, improving global economic growth prospects, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Despite the usual positive correlation between interest rate cuts and gold prices, there are concerns that the market may have already priced in some of these benefits, leading to a potential correction [6]. Group 3: Changing Asset Allocation - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 90% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a shift in asset allocation strategies amid geopolitical tensions [8]. - The OMFIF survey reveals that 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold exposure in the next 12 to 24 months, the highest level in five years, suggesting a growing optimism about gold's future [8]. - The report indicates a trend towards diversifying away from the US dollar, with gold, the euro, and the renminbi becoming increasingly important in central bank reserves, signaling a potential end to the dollar's dominance [8].