Group 1 - The Senate is expected to confirm Steven Myin as a Fed Governor soon, which could influence Fed meetings and decisions [1] - Market sentiment is optimistic about a rate cut next week and potentially two more cuts by the end of the year [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding inflation and the strength of the economy, with the next rate cut being highly likely [3][4] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows limited job growth, but does not indicate outright job losses, suggesting stability in the job market [5][7] - There is a noted slowdown in disposable income growth, which may lead to moderated consumption growth in the coming months [6][10] - Concerns about inflation and its impact on real disposable income growth could complicate the Fed's actions and credibility regarding their inflation targets [11][12]

Overview - The August CPI in the US met market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][3] - Core CPI also aligned with expectations, recording a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][3] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly due to weak tariff-related goods and a decline in super core service inflation [1][3] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [1][15] - In the core services category, rent saw a slight increase to 0.4%, but super core services weakened, reflecting a decline in employment in related sectors [2][22] Outlook - The outlook for inflation suggests a "slower and longer" trend, with CPI expected to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters according to Bloomberg forecasts [3][27] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims [3][32] - Employment trends are anticipated to be a core contradiction for the Federal Reserve's decisions moving forward, with a potential rise in unemployment rates above 4.5% being a key factor [3][32]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Inflation Overview - August CPI in the U.S. rose to 0.38%, exceeding the expected 0.3%[1] - Core CPI remained stable at 0.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[1] - Food and energy prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with energy prices rebounding to 0.69% from -1.07% in July[6] Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to prices remains manageable, with core goods inflation driven mainly by new and used car prices[2] - Tariff-sensitive categories showed moderate growth, indicating limited inflationary pressure from tariffs[2] - The effective tariff rate increase was less than anticipated, with companies absorbing part of the tariff costs[2] Employment Market Signals - Initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly, signaling a slowdown in the labor market[1] - Excluding Texas, initial claims align with historical seasonal patterns, suggesting a gradual weakening rather than a sharp decline[2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are now fully priced in, with a 13% chance for a 50 basis point cut[1] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 5 basis points, with 2-year and 10-year yields at 3.50% and 4.00%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% to 97.6, while U.S. stock markets saw an uptick[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include higher-than-expected tariff transmission to inflation and a faster-than-expected decline in the U.S. labor market[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the slight rise in inflation in August strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week, although the pace is expected to be cautious [1][3][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest increase since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, both slightly above expectations [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, remaining stable and in line with expectations [1][5] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92.7%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7.3% [3] - Analysts suggest that the August inflation data supports a 25 basis point cut but does not provide justification for a larger cut [3][5] - The core inflation rate remains stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, despite rising core commodity prices [5][6] Group 3 - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest since June 2023, and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations [6][8] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest level since November 2021, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Some analysts believe the rise in jobless claims may reflect seasonal fluctuations rather than a significant decline in labor demand [7][8]

Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The August CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations [3] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, showed a slowdown in growth to 3.52% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payrolls report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed job growth [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the CPI and employment data, traders adjusted their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 88.1% [5][6] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, while U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4% for the first time since April [9] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation report indicates persistent inflation in the U.S., with ongoing service cost increases potentially exerting lasting pressure on overall inflation [5] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is noted, with a slow transmission effect observed [11]

Economic Overview - US stocks paused as Wall Street assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased over 0.1%, while the S&P 500 fell below the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1% [1] Labor Market Insights - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [2] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices rising, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [3] - Despite inflation concerns, investors anticipate the Fed will cut rates, with a more than 90% chance of a quarter-point cut in the upcoming meeting [4] - Consumer sentiment is expected to show steady spending, but Americans are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with their purchasing power and the job market [4] Stock Market Performance - All three major stock indexes are on track for weekly gains exceeding 1.4%, with the Dow aiming for its first win in three weeks after surpassing 46,000 for the first time [5]

People shop at a supermarket on 18 July 2025 in Rockville, Maryland.Photograph: China News Service/Getty Images Inflation rose slightly in August as companies continued to push the cost of tariffs onto consumers. The newest update to the consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of goods and services, showed that prices increased 2.9% over the last year – the highest since January. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, stayed stable at 3.1% after going up in July. Despite this slight u ...