21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 5月通胀数据意外未"爆表" 关税后第一份CPI报告没有爆表，这虽然在意料之外，但却在情理之中。 在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，美国5月CPI低于市场预期，主要源于多重因素暂时抑制了关税 向通胀的传导效应。其一，今年一季度美国进口增速较高，在关税不确定性下，"抢进口"效应较为显 著，导致美国零售企业库存较高。这使得在关税提高后，进口价格上行对美国通胀的影响受到缓冲。其 二，4月全面实施"对等关税"后，美国迅速对多数贸易伙伴设置了90天宽限期。因此，报复性关税对美 国进口价格的影响仍主要体现为10%的基础关税，对美国通胀的推升作用相对有限。其三，PMI、非农 就业等数据显示美国经济本身存在放缓趋势，这也在一定程度上抑制了美国通胀的上行。 当地时间6月11日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比增长2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%；5 月CPI环比增长0.1%，低于预期的0.2%。剔除食品和能源成本后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，保持在 2021年3月以来的最低水平，低于预期的2.9%；核心CPI环比增长0.1%，也低于预期的0.3%。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对 ...

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year increased to 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% and up from the previous 2.3%[2] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 2.8%, matching the previous value but below the expected 2.9%[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy service price growth slowed to 0.4% from 1.5%, primarily due to a drop in natural gas prices, which fell from 3.7% to -1.0%[2] - Core goods prices saw a decline, with a month-on-month change of 0%, down from 0.1%, driven by reduced demand following a consumer purchasing surge in Q1[2] - Core services prices increased by 0.2%, down from 0.3%, influenced by a cooling rental market[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, indicating strong expectations for interest rate cuts[2][4] - The market anticipates a 99.8% probability of no rate change in the upcoming June meeting, with a significant chance of cuts by September[4] Risks and Outlook - The impact of tariff negotiations on inflation expectations is significant, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 6.6%, exceeding actual inflation rates[2] - Potential risks include unexpected outcomes from tariff negotiations leading to upward pressure on inflation expectations and a downturn in the U.S. economy[2]

Group 1 - The new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration have raised concerns among financial institutions and businesses about potential inflation, despite recent CPI reports indicating manageable inflation levels [1][2] - The May CPI report showed a nominal inflation increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3% [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 2.8%, but was below market expectations of 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The employment market has shown a downward trend, with average monthly job additions from January to May at 123,800, lower than the previous year's average of 179,600 [2][3] - The service sector has been the primary source of job growth, while manufacturing and federal government sectors have seen job losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.97 trillion, with a recent bill increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by a high issuance rate of 5.047% for 30-year bonds in May, indicating increased risk perception [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices and the depreciation of the dollar suggest a growing distrust in U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar's stability [5] - The impact of tariff policies on the global supply chain is significant, with reduced cargo volumes at several ports and rising production costs affecting economic growth [5][6] Group 5 - The stock market has returned to previous levels, but there are concerns about whether inflated stock prices can be supported by upcoming earnings reports [6] - The concentration of market value in the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, which account for 40% of the index, poses a serious risk to market stability [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 2025年06月12日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀? -- 美国 5月 CPI点评 事件: 北京时间 6月 11 日 20:30,美国公布 2025年5月 CPI。 核心结论:美国5月CPI和核心CPI 均低于预期,整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后,美联储降息预期小幅上调,目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息2次,首次在9月。往后看,关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现,美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国5月 CPI和核心 CPI 双双低于预期,关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现:美国 2025年5月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%,低于预期值 2.5%, 高于前值 2.3%;核心 CPI 同比 2.8%,低于预期值 2.9%,持平前值,为 四年来最低。李调后 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值、前值和 12个月均值 0.2%;核心 CPI 环比 0.1%,低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12个月均值 0.2%。 | 分析师 | 熊园 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号 ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日 总量研究 美国通胀压力何时显现？ ——2025 年 5 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现—— 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-14） 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节奏如何？ — — 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2025-03-13） 美国通胀为何超预期上行？——2025年1月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-02-13） 美国核心通胀回落，降息预期升温——2024 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-01-16） 为什么我们认为美国通胀将低于预期？—— 2024 年 11 月 美 国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2024-12-12） 制造 ...

周二，金融市场情绪分化，美国通胀数据略低于预期之际，中东地区地缘政治风险升温，令投资者信心 受挫。 通胀回落与美伊紧张局势升级的交织，导致避险资金流、能源市场与债券收益率等多资产类别出现"拉 锯战"。 美国5月CPI略显温和 美国5月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，略高于4月的2.3%，符合市场预期。核心CPI同比维持 在2.8%，月率增长仅为0.1%，均低于市场预期。 尽管通胀仍处于相对高位，但持续的通缩趋势被市场解读为积极信号——尤其是此前担忧关税冲击的影 响并未如预期严重显现。 "当前整体和核心通胀维持稳定，即便在关税背景下，也为美联储提供了更多操作空间，并可能为年内 降息打开大门。"——Ultima Markets 高级分析师 Shawn 表示。 CME FedWatch显示9月FOMC会议降息概率达到61.6%，较一个月前的41%大幅上升。 美伊紧张局势再起 另一方面，美国与伊朗的紧张关系于周三加剧。美国已下令部分撤离驻伊拉克、巴林和科威特大使馆人 员，理由是来自伊朗支持势力的安全威胁上升。 技术面分析：布伦特原油（UKOUSD） 布伦特原油强势突破两个月高点，重返69美元上方，逼近70美 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices surged due to improved risk appetite from US-China trade talks and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - The US inflation rate remained relatively stable, with May CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, which helped stabilize market sentiment and supported oil prices [3] - A decrease in US crude oil inventories, reported at 432.415 million barrels, down by 3.64 million barrels, contributed positively to the oil market as summer demand approaches [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the stalled US-Iran negotiations and potential military conflicts, continues to support the oil market [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which are expected to provide a favorable outlook for oil prices [1][4] - Despite short-term potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions, long-term concerns about economic and energy demand may pressure oil prices [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 12 年 月 日 宏观点评 关税为何没有推升美国通胀？——美国 5 月 CPI 点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 11 日 20:30，美国公布 2025 年 5 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 均低于预期，整体通胀压力依然较为 温和。数据公布后，美联储降息预期小幅上调，目前市场依然预期美联储 年内降息 2 次，首次在 9 月。往后看，关税对通胀并非没有影响、而是尚 未充分显现，美国通胀上行风险依然存在。未来两个月重点关注贸易谈判 进展、特朗普"大美丽法案"进展、美联储 6/19 议息会议的表态。 1、美国 5 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双低于预期，关税影响尚不显著。 >整体表现：美国 2025 年 5 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.4%，低于预期值 2.5%， 高于前值 2.3%；核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，低于预期值 2.9%，持平前值，为 四年来最低。季调后 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值、前值和 12 个月均值 0.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.1%，低于预期值 0.3%和前值、12 个月均值 0. ...

';<=>?@ABCDE2025-06-12 5 ! CPI "#$%&'($%)* ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 11 日晚美国劳工部公布 5 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.4%，预期+2.5%，前值+2.3%；核心 CPI+2.8%，预期+2.9%，前值+2.8%。 环比：CPI+0.1%，预期+0.2%，前值+0.2%；核心 CPI+0.1%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.2%。 &'"( ■ 5 ! CPI "#$%&' 5 月 CPI 同比上升 2.4%，环比上涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 同比为 2.8%，环比仅涨 0.1%，其中 核心CPI年化增速创2021年3月以来最低。通胀低于预期主要受服装等价格下跌推动， 能源价格同比跌 3.5%，租金同比上涨 3.8%，是主要上行因素之一。食品价格同比上升 2.9%，但医疗、交通等分项环比涨幅较小甚至下降，表明在关税预期压力下，企业短 期仍在吸 ...