多位政府高官和美企高管近期都收到了特朗普的下台威胁。 当地时间8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发文"炮轰"高盛集团首席执行官大卫·所罗门，称其 应"找个新的经济学家"或"专注当DJ而不是经营一家大型金融机构"。所罗门曾以"DJ D-Sol"的艺名在派 对和音乐节担任DJ。 美国关税大头谁掏钱？ 高盛：先美企 再美国消费者 让特朗普把高盛CEO"贬"为DJ的导火索，是高盛近日的一份报告。 高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯在报告中对"美国收关税是谁掏钱"的问题估算称，截至6月，美国企业承担 了64%的关税成本，消费者承担了22%的关税，而外国出口商通过降低出口价格，承担了14%的关税。 高盛警告，继续这么加关税的话，到10月，美国消费者将承担67%，外国企业承担25%，美国公司承担 8%。 除了高盛CEO 特朗普还威胁这些人下台 8月12日，特朗普发文要求高盛CEO换掉其首席经济学家或自行退出，批评高盛关于市场反应和关税效 应的判断"完全错误"。特朗普称，关税为美国带来数万亿美元收入，并未引发通胀或对经济造成其他损 害，"主要是由企业和政府——其中很多是外国政府——在买单"。 由于唱衰美国政府加关税或未能配合其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the silver market are influenced by the U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions, with a notable increase in silver prices following the release of moderate inflation data [1][3]. Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.02, while spot silver opened at $37.88/oz and is currently around $37.98/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9188 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9215 CNY/kg [1]. - On August 12, the dollar index fell by 0.43% to close at 98.07, while spot silver rose by 0.81% to $37.91/oz. This increase is attributed to the moderate rise in U.S. inflation for July, which supports the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [1]. ETF Holdings - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased to 15099.56 tons, up by 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI rose to a five-month high of 3.1%. Following this data, traders increased their bets on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin noted potential pressures on inflation and unemployment, while Kansas Fed President George stated that tariffs have limited impact on inflation, suggesting a reason to maintain current policy rather than pursue rate cuts [3]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened at $37.59, experienced a dip to a low of $37.486, and then saw a strong rally, reaching a high of $38.015 before closing at $37.9. The market is expected to target levels of $38.1, $38.3, and $38.5 with a stop loss at $37.5 [4].

Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%[1] Component Performance - Food prices showed a month-on-month change from 0.3% to 0%, below the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Energy prices decreased significantly, with a month-on-month change from 0.9% to -1.1%[2] - Core services increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 12-month average of 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose from approximately 88% to around 96%[3] Future Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest level since 1933[4] - Inflation is expected to rise by 1.5-1.8 percentage points due to current tariff policies[4] - Market consensus anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with Q4 PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2%[4]

Inflation Data - July CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3.1%, marking a six-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4][6] - Energy CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of -1.6%, with gasoline prices dropping to -9.5%[11] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have a moderate impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth increasing to 1.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Used car prices saw the largest increase, rising 2 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by tariffs[12] - Prices for furniture and clothing showed a slight month-on-month decrease, indicating a milder tariff impact[12] Service Sector - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with medical services rising to 4.3%, hindering overall service inflation reduction[15] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent year-on-year growth slightly declining to 4.1%[15] Market Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 94%, with an average of 2.4 cuts expected for the year[18] - Consumer inflation expectations fell, with one-year expectations dropping to 4.5% and five-year expectations to 3.4%[15][20] Risks - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[19]

Core Insights - The July CPI in the U.S. was lower than expected at 2.7%, while the core CPI exceeded expectations at 3.1%, leading to a slight increase in the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][3] - The inflation outlook suggests a gradual increase due to higher tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, with Q3 and Q4 inflation expected to rise above 3% [2][13] - The market's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted upwards, with a nearly 100% probability of a cut in September, primarily due to concerns about a potential recession [1][11] Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value and below the expected 2.8%. The core CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the expected 3.0% and previous 2.9% [1][3] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%, while the core CPI was 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.2% [1][3] - Key components showed a decline in food and energy prices, while core services saw an increase, indicating a shift in inflation dynamics [3][4] Market Reaction - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.29% [5][11] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September increased from approximately 88% to 96%, with the expected number of cuts for the year rising from 2.3 to 2.4 [11][13] Future Outlook - The inflation outlook indicates a "slow burn" rather than a rapid increase, with tariffs expected to gradually impact inflation rates [2][13] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are influenced by recession concerns, with the likelihood of consecutive cuts being low given the limited number of FOMC meetings remaining this year [2][21]

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that inflation is lower than many expected, leading to the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, with a potential 50 basis points reduction being a reasonable decision [1] Group 1 - Rick Rieder, the Global Fixed Income Investment Director at BlackRock, highlights the unexpected low inflation data [1] - The expectation is set for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts starting in September [1] - A reduction of 50 basis points in the federal funds rate is considered a plausible action [1]

Inflation Overview - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, with a slight month-on-month deceleration to 0.2% [2][10] - Core CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3.1%, while core services remained unchanged [4][10] Energy and Food Prices - Energy inflation decreased, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year decline of -1.6%, and gasoline prices dropping by 9.5% [6] - Food prices also saw a cooling effect, contributing to the overall inflation dynamics [10] Service Sector Dynamics - Core services year-on-year growth was stable at 3.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [7] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent slightly decreasing to 4.1% [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs had a mild impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth rising to 1.2% [9] - The prices of used cars surged by 4.8%, influenced by tariffs, although a potential decline in used car prices is expected in the coming months [9] Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to a 94% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [10] - The average expected rate cuts for the year are approximately 2.4 times [10] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation among consumers dropped to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns [12]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a significant interest rate cut in September has increased, leading to bullish sentiment in gold prices as market participants await potential upward movements [1][7]. Market Performance - On August 12, international gold prices fluctuated, opening at $3342.73 per ounce, reaching a low of $3331.22 and a high of $3358.67, ultimately closing at $3347.97, with a daily range of $27.45 and a gain of $5.24, or 0.16% [3][5]. - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with gold prices expected to remain volatile but with a potential upward trend if certain resistance levels are breached [6][11]. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data for July showed only a moderate increase, which supports the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month [3][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and prompting expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently facing resistance around $3360 to $3370, with support levels identified at $3337 and $3325 [12]. - The daily chart indicates a potential bullish reversal if gold can close above the 5-day moving average, while a failure to do so may lead to further declines towards the 100-day moving average [11][9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will enter a more accommodative monetary policy cycle starting in September, which could lead to significant increases in gold prices, potentially reaching $4200 within the next year [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - US inflation is lower than expected, maintaining market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while Japanese stock markets follow the rise of US stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.2% in the first few minutes of trading, surpassing the 43,000-point mark for the first time in history, reaching a high of 43,241.27 points [1] - The Topix index also hit a record high, with an intraday increase of 0.8%, reaching 3,092.05 points [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Electronic and automotive stocks led the gains, with Advantest increasing by 3.5% and Subaru rising by 2.2% [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring US tariff news and domestic political developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut in September and will lower rates twice within the year [1] Inflation and Tariffs - July inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is relatively mild [1] - Research by Cavallo et al. shows that after tariffs are announced, the maximum increase in commodity prices occurs within 10-15 weeks (3-4 months) [1] - Due to weak perceived demand, companies only pass on 50-60% of the tariff pressure to consumers, preventing a larger increase in inflation [1] Future Outlook - With an expected increase in tariffs in August, core inflation may continue to rise moderately [1] - Weak corporate demand and a weakening labor market will constrain the extent of inflation increases [1] - The slowdown in demand and accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants suggest that the labor market will continue to face pressure in the third quarter [1]