前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。从10— 11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险等政策陆续推出，2025 年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍预计经济增 长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期的重大项目，推动房 地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 由于2025年经济呈现"前高后低"的态势，要想扭转四季度经济下行态势，推动实现2026年良好开局，需 要实施更加积极的宏观政策。 2025年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来，5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来增量资金，同时还能一定程度补 充地方财力，这 ...

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。从10-11 月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险等政策陆续推出，2025年 全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍预计经济增 长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期的重大项目，推动房 地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 2025年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来，5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来增量资金，同时还能一定程度补 充地方财力，这些稳增长政策工具效应在逐步释放。 11月30日，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光在"中国人民 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for December 2025 indicates a weakening influence of the equity market on the bond market, with overall weak performance and reduced trading volume expected in the equity market. Seasonal factors typically lead to increased fiscal spending and loose monetary policy in December, which may result in a downward trend in interest rates [1][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy**: The monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a high probability of interest rates declining in December due to seasonal patterns. However, the impact of upcoming important meetings on the market needs to be monitored [1][4]. - **Credit Spread**: The 1-5 year non-financial credit spread has returned to the 30th percentile of the past 24 years, indicating a thin safety cushion. The compression of non-financial medium to long-term credit spreads may face challenges due to year-end regulatory changes [5][3]. - **Fiscal Policy for 2026**: The fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of spending intensity, with a deficit rate expected between 4% and 4.5%. The net financing scale of government debt may reach approximately 14.5 trillion yuan [12][10]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately in 2026, but inflation remains an uncertain factor. The PPI decline is expected to narrow, while CPI may return to positive growth [7][16]. - **Interest Rate Projections**: The after-tax yield on 10-year government bonds is anticipated to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a median estimate between 1.75% and 1.95% [2][19]. - **Investment Strategy**: In a low-interest-rate environment, a focus on coupon strategies is recommended, along with opportunities for phase-based trading. The overall economic recovery is expected to be moderate, supporting a low-interest-rate environment [21][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Structure Transition**: The current macroeconomic policy framework emphasizes structural transformation, with a focus on medium to long-term planning and industrial policy, aiming for sustainable growth while stabilizing short-term economic conditions [9][14]. - **Fourth Quarter Economic Support**: There is a significant amount of new funding (1 trillion yuan) allocated for the fourth quarter, which includes policy financial tools and local government debt limits, aimed at boosting economic growth [8][11]. - **Inflation Risks**: Inflation is identified as a key uncertainty for the bond market in 2026, with potential short-term volatility due to rising prices, although the overall macro policy aims to prevent financial system stagnation [16][20]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, fiscal and monetary policies, investment strategies, and potential risks in the bond market.

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%。从10-11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险 等政策陆续推出，2025年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍 预计经济增长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期 的重大项目，推动房地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 2 0 2 5年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来， 5000亿元新型政策性金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来 增量资金，同时还能一定程度补充地方财力，这些稳增长政策工具效应在逐步释放。 11月30日，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光在"中 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 王哲语证券分析师 SAC No：S1150524070001 周喜证券分析师 核心观点 SAC No：S1150511010017 2025年市场回顾 李济安证券分析师 资金价格：2025年流动性投放工具继续优化，7天逆回购操作利率的政策属性强化，MLF、买断式逆回购、国债买卖等工具的投放时点更有助于稳定资金 面。资金面先紧后松，3月下旬是转折点，此后DR007基本稳定在略高于政策利率的位置。 SAC No：S1150522060001 一级市场：2025年利率债净融资规模增长近40%，国债增发的贡献最多，地方债次之，发行节奏明显靠前。 二级市场：2025年债牛惯性打破，10Y国债收益率在1.6-1.9%区间内震荡，呈现两轮上下行交替的M型走势，其中，一季度资金收紧带动曲线走熊走平； 二季度关税交易带动曲线整体下行；三季度"反内卷"和股债跷跷板带动曲线走熊走陡；四季度以来，央行恢复国债买卖带来债市做多窗口。 以上内容来源于渤海证券研究所2025年12月01日发布的证券研究报告《渤海证券研究所晨会纪要》 重要提示： 通过本公众订阅号发布的 ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials signaled a dovish stance, with support for a rate cut in December from officials like Waller and Daly[9] - Economic data showed a slowdown in U.S. retail sales and durable goods orders, indicating weakened consumer momentum[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.02% as markets continued to price in rate cut expectations[23] European Central Bank - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain current interest rates, citing economic resilience and stable inflation[10] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of further rate cuts in 2025, with a 40% chance of a cut by the end of 2026[10] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales grew by only 0.2% in September, significantly lower than August's 0.6%[13] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, down from 3.0% in August, with non-defense orders rising just 0.1%[13] - Eurozone economic sentiment index rose to 97.0 in November, up from 96.8 in October, indicating improved economic confidence[22] Fiscal Policy - The UK government announced an additional £26 billion in taxes, raising the overall tax burden to 38% of GDP by the end of the parliamentary term[12] - The largest revenue increase will come from freezing the personal income tax threshold, expected to generate £12.7 billion by the 2030-31 fiscal year[12]

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential transformation of the U.S. into a "banana republic," as warned by former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, indicating a shift towards a fear-based operational model that undermines capital trust [1][11][23] - Yellen highlights the alarming silence among influential U.S. CEOs, who express fear of repercussions for crossing invisible lines, which is detrimental to business and innovation [5][7][21] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, with Trump attempting to exert control over monetary policy, which could lead to a collapse of monetary credibility and hyperinflation [14][18][23] Group 2 - The U.S. capital market is showing signs of instability, with a notable decline in the dollar's value and a lack of buyers for U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting diminishing investor confidence [16][18] - In contrast, China's stable investment environment, characterized by clear regulations and government non-interference, is attracting foreign capital, highlighting a significant competitive advantage [19][23] - Yellen's warnings serve as a wake-up call for the American elite, emphasizing the long-term implications of eroding democratic institutions and the potential loss of the U.S. as a global capital haven [21][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in promoting economic development and achieving annual economic and social development goals [1][2][3][4] - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% in the first ten months, reflecting a stable and improving economic operation [1] - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax performance, indicating significant industrial upgrading [1] Group 2 - Active fiscal policies have been implemented this year, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, particularly in key areas like social security and employment [2][3] - Expenditure growth rates in key areas include social security and employment at 9.3%, education at 4.7%, and science and technology at 5.7% [2] - The issuance of various government bonds, including special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, has accelerated to enhance economic development momentum [2] Group 3 - Macro policies need to maintain strong support for consumption, investment, and enterprise assistance, with recent macro policies indicating a clear intention to "sustain efforts" [3] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local governments and projects, increasing the total scale by 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3] - Proactive and scientific macro policies are essential for seizing opportunities and ensuring timely support for economic recovery [3][4] Group 4 - The current international environment remains complex and uncertain, necessitating macro policies to adapt to market changes and enterprise needs [4] - Emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in macro policies to fully utilize policy space and make precise decisions [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Market Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has softened due to year-end profit-taking and increased volatility in the US market, with a cautiously constructive outlook maintained by the company [1][2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: - The weighted MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) decreased by 1% to 50% compared to the previous cut-off date, and the 1MMA (1-Month Moving Average) dropped by 4% to 61% [2]. - Average Daily Turnover (ADT) for A-shares decreased by 6% to RMB 1,801 billion, while ChiNext turnover rose by 2% to RMB 506 billion [2]. - **Net Inflows**: - Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 2 billion from November 20 to November 26, with year-to-date net inflows reaching USD 167 billion [3]. - **Government Policy**: - Beijing is considering interest subsidies to lower mortgage costs, which could support listings and stabilize prices. A broad 100bps subsidy could cost approximately RMB 400 billion annually [4]. - The implementation of such policies could lead to a gradual recovery in housing demand and stabilize prices in higher-tier cities [4]. - **Market Volatility**: - Chinese equities have experienced heightened volatility since October, with a potential US market correction posing a significant risk to global risk assets, including Chinese equities [13]. - However, A-shares have shown the lowest correlation with US markets, suggesting potential for relative outperformance [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Foreign Investor Sentiment**: Positive feedback from foreign investors indicates a growing interest in the Chinese equity market, with expectations for continued net inflows in the coming year [14]. - **Catalysts for Improvement**: Key catalysts for a more bullish outlook on China include improved US-China relations and a more aggressive fiscal policy, particularly regarding housing inventory [15][16]. - **Earnings Estimate Revisions**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2]. - **Methodology of MSASI**: The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators to capture various dimensions of investor sentiment, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term trends [17][26]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring various metrics such as ChiNext turnover, A-share turnover, and margin financing to gauge market sentiment and activity [19][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the A-share market dynamics, investor sentiment, government policies, and potential catalysts for future market performance.

除了组织财政收入，财政运行的另外一面，是通过实施财政政策促进经济发展。今年以来，更加积极的 财政政策持续发力，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，加强对重点领域的支出保障。民生、科技等重点领 域支出的增速抢眼，其中，社会保障和就业支出增长9.3%，教育支出增长4.7%，科学技术支出增长 5.7%，节能环保支出增长7%。这些支出，充分显示出更多资金资源"投资于人"以及支持科技创新的政 策导向。同时，专项债券、超长期特别国债等各类政府债券加快发行使用，增强经济发展动能。 当前，宏观政策需要继续着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，稳住经济基本盘。党的二十届四中全 会提出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。实现今年全年经济社会发展目标，以及推动"十五五"良好开 局，宏观政策肩负重任。 今年财政收入增幅持续回升，反映出当前经济运行总体平稳、稳中有升的态势。宏观政策需要保持力 度、靠前发力、适时加力，继续稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，稳住经济基本盘。 近日发布的前10个月财政收支情况显示，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续提高，累计增幅稳步回 升；一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。财政政策如何持续发力、适时加力，推动实 ...