Group 1 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the softening labor market in the UK will lead the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy, with unemployment expected to rise above the central bank's modal forecast [1] - The latest data shows a decrease of 109,000 jobs in May, marking the most significant decline since May 2020, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will drop from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura Oriental International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [2] - The firm highlights that the second half of 2025 will be a crucial period for market direction, with increased volatility anticipated [2] - Stable dividend stocks and specific technology growth sectors are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the latter half of the year, alongside significant potential in domestic consumption and technology sectors [2] Group 3 - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with many expecting a rate cut as early as September [3] - Economists forecast U.S. economic growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with previous predictions [3] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley reports that the net long position in U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since May 5, with a 2 percentage point decrease in short positions [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings states that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar has provided some emerging market central banks with the space to accelerate interest rate cuts, alleviating the burden of dollar-denominated debt [5] Group 6 - Fitch also notes that global public finances will continue to face pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, interest costs, and demographic trends [6] - The median government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise slightly from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% by the end of 2025 [6] Group 7 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart to HKD 302, citing the company's IP diversity and operational capabilities as drivers of sustainable growth, suggesting that its long-term scaling potential has not yet been fully priced in [7] Group 8 - Morgan Stanley believes that long-term Japanese government bonds are attractive to foreign investors, although the timing of any adjustments to the bond issuance scale by the Japanese government remains uncertain [8] Group 9 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs may raise U.S. commodity prices and overall inflation in the coming months, with core CPI inflation expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year, up from 2.8% in April [9] Group 10 - CITIC Securities anticipates that investor sentiment will remain stable in June, although there may be a cautious outlook among investors following the extreme performance of small-cap and thematic stocks in April and May [10] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the main market theme remains unclear, advocating for a rotational approach to trading in the technology sector [10] Group 11 - CICC reports that the Chinese consumption market is exhibiting characteristics of "consumption stratification" rather than simple "consumption downgrade," with consumers willing to pay for quality at lower prices and justified premiums [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable macroeconomic foundation for structural highlights in the consumption market [11] Group 12 - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on stablecoin concept stocks with good growth prospects and reasonable valuations, as regulatory developments are expected to boost investor confidence in the stablecoin market [12] - Haitong Securities highlights the importance of flexibility in asset operations amid increased volatility and suggests looking for structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology and military industry [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the discipline inspection and supervision agencies in advancing the Party's self-revolution, highlighting the need for continuous improvement in cadre team building and political loyalty [1] - The article discusses the necessity of integrating political education throughout the cadre team development process, ensuring that discipline inspection and supervision personnel deeply understand and implement Xi Jinping's thoughts [1][2] - It stresses the importance of practical training and real-case simulations to enhance the professional capabilities of discipline inspection and supervision personnel, particularly for younger cadres [2] Group 2 - The article outlines a dual approach of strict management and care to stimulate the vitality of the cadre team, promoting a positive work environment [3] - It mentions the establishment of a sound selection mechanism for discipline inspection and supervision personnel, ensuring that capable individuals are integrated into the team [3] - The need for a comprehensive assessment system is highlighted, focusing on scientific, simplified, and quantifiable principles to evaluate performance and guide personnel decisions [3]

作者：李昭，缪延亮，杨晓卿 ，屈博韬 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025H1我们建议维持超配黄金，增配中国股票，美股由攻转守，低配全球商品，标配中外债券（ 《大类资产2025年展望：时变之应》 ，发布于 2024/11/12），取得良好收益。4月份以来美国关税冲击超预期，宏观环境再次发生明显变化。2025H2我们建议 资产配置增加韧性，稳中求进，增配黄 金、高股息、中债等安全资产；等待时机增配代表新科技浪潮的成长风格股票。 图表1：2025YTD全球大类资产表现：黄金港股领涨，美股商品偏弱，债券表现居中 关税前景主导市场走势，资产运行体现新规律 美国关税政策是2025H1全球大类资产运行的主要矛盾：4月初关税冲击超预期，全球资产进入"避险模式"；4月下旬关税预期好转，市场情绪明显改善。 尽管关税在5月大幅调降，但美国实际平均有效税率仍接近16%，远高于2024年底2.4%的水平，可能对全球贸易与经济产生负面影响。 美国关税政策主观性、随意性偏强，未来演绎仍有很大变数，可能在2025H2继续主导全球市场走向。 图表2：美国有效关税税率仍然接近"斯姆特霍利"关税水平 注：截至2025/6/3 资料来源：Wind，Y ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US equities, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds for the second half of 2025, aiming for resilient asset allocation amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The US tariff policy is identified as the main factor influencing global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with unexpected tariff shocks leading to a risk-off market environment [4][5]. - Despite a significant reduction in tariffs in May, the effective average tariff rate remains around 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% at the end of 2024, which may negatively impact global trade and economic growth [4][6]. - The article notes that the subjective and arbitrary nature of US tariff policies introduces considerable uncertainty for future market directions [5]. Group 2: Asset Performance Trends - The article highlights a shift in asset performance patterns in 2025 compared to 2018-2020, influenced by three super cycles: the dollar cycle, technology cycle, and real estate cycle [9][10][11]. - During tariff escalations, the dollar depreciated, US Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, indicating a complex interplay between tariffs and asset classes [9][18]. - Chinese stocks showed resilience during tariff escalations, with growth-style stocks outperforming, suggesting a potential revaluation of Chinese assets [10][41]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The US economic outlook is expected to deteriorate, with fiscal deficits projected to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a recession or stagflation, which could suppress financial asset performance [21][26]. - The article anticipates a decline in the US fiscal deficit rate to around 5%-6% in 2025, with a shift to expansionary fiscal policies expected in 2026 [21][67]. - The potential for a "second inflation" risk remains, driven by tariff pressures despite currently low inflation levels [21][26]. Group 4: Gold and Commodity Outlook - Gold is projected to remain a key beneficiary in the current economic environment, with prices potentially reaching between $3,000 and $5,000 per ounce in the next few years, despite current prices being above equilibrium levels [36][39]. - The article suggests that commodities may be entering a new super cycle driven by AI and green transitions, although short-term demand may remain weak due to global economic slowdowns [51][53]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The article recommends an asset allocation strategy that emphasizes gold, high-dividend stocks, and domestic bonds, while suggesting a lower allocation to US equities and commodities [64]. - It advises maintaining a standard allocation in US Treasuries due to uncertainties, while being cautious about the potential for rising interest rates and inflation [64][67]. - The article encourages investors to look for opportunities in technology growth stocks, particularly in the Chinese market, as the AI revolution unfolds [41][49].

点击上图▲立即收听 " 如果对所有车企都是 ' 一刀切 ' ，那么对那些持续亏损、现金流不足、融资能力又一般的新势力们，恐怕将是一场灾难。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 气温在升高，车圈的火药味也没降温。六月，一场由账期引发的"反内卷热浪"正在席卷汽车江湖。 周二 晚上，广汽、一汽、东风三家国企及赛力斯率先发声，承诺供应商账期不超过60 天。紧随其后，吉利、长安接力响应。 昨日凌晨一点，中国第一大车企比亚迪发文称，将供应商支付账期统一至60天内。 图源：比亚迪官微 随后，北汽、上汽、长城、奇瑞等传统车企以及小米、小鹏、零跑等造车新势力纷纷跟进。 就这样，一场由头部车企发起的"账期革命"迅速蔓延，在产业链上空缓缓荡起涟漪，一点点渗入旧有的游戏规则。 口水战 本质而言，此番密集表态，时机微妙，似乎是对近期车企内卷加剧的回应。 五月底，比亚迪宣布了年内第三次大规模价格调整，王朝网、海洋网共计22款智驾版车型最高降幅达5.3万元，创下其智驾车型价格新低。 随后，奇瑞、上汽通用等约10个车企跟进，混战拉开帷幕，引发新一轮车企价格战恐慌。 对此，工信部、汽车工业协会等纷纷发文批评此番降价，车企之间也不再保 ...

以下文章来源于汽车公社 ，作者杜余鑫 汽车公社 . 速度 深度 态度 作者 | 杜余鑫 来源 | 汽车公社 导语：不少车厂采用"90天或120天账期+180天银行承兑"的组合账期设计，这意味供应商今年 干的活儿，要明年才能见到钱。 汽车圈从前天晚上到今天，最大的事儿应该就是"各家车厂宣布积极响应国家号召，将支付供应商 货款的账期统一至60天内"的消息了。 6月10日，广汽集团在20点左右最先发布这一消息，表示了对供应商账期的郑重承诺。 之后两家央企一汽和东风，随即先后也在官微宣布了这一决定。核心意思是要践行责任和担当，毕 竟央企虽然在市场体量没有做到最大，但社会效应和责任这种带头作用还是要拿出来的。 再往后则是赛力斯于21点左右发布消息，官方没有在标题里提到账期和供应链生态字样，而是表达 了促进行业高质量发展的倡议，同时还凡尔赛了一把说"一直以来赛力斯都是正常货款账期60天"。 就在一众网友还在@吉利和长安时，很快这两家头部车企也积极响应，分别在23点后跟进了这一决 定。值得一提的是，刚在央企里地位升格的长安，觉得光母公司承诺还不够，将长安启源、长安凯 程、深蓝汽车、阿维塔也一并拉过来再承诺了一遍。 截至发稿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Walking Ideological and Political Course" at Guyuan No. 2 Middle School has been a tradition for 30 years, emphasizing physical endurance and the spiritual legacy of revolutionary martyrs through a 108-mile trek to the Ren Mountain River Martyrs' Cemetery [4][15]. Group 1: Event Details - Over 2,000 teachers and students from Guyuan No. 2 Middle School and Guyuan Hongwen Middle School participated in the trek, which took 15 hours from 5 AM to 8 PM, involving challenging terrain [2][4]. - Students supported each other during the journey, with some experiencing physical exhaustion but none giving up [2][4]. Group 2: Educational Impact - Initially aimed at physical training and willpower development, the course has evolved to honor revolutionary martyrs and instill revolutionary spirit [4][17]. - The experience has become a mandatory part of the curriculum for every first-year high school and middle school student [4]. Group 3: Personal Reflections - Zhang Hongmei, an English teacher at Guyuan No. 2 Middle School, reflects on how her experiences have changed with her evolving roles as a student, teacher, and mother [6]. - Graduates recall the perseverance and teamwork learned during the trek, which continue to benefit them in their careers [9][11]. Group 4: Broader Influence - Since 2023, Guyuan No. 2 Middle School has hosted over 20 schools and organizations to discuss the "Walking Ideological and Political Course" and has conducted over 40 lectures in nearly 10 cities to share their experiences [15]. - The school emphasizes that real education comes from practical experiences in nature and society, rather than just theoretical knowledge [17].

Core Insights - The global AI revolution is at a critical juncture, with domestic large models like DeepSeek leading to a "multipolar" competitive landscape, driving a reevaluation of Chinese tech assets through technological breakthroughs, policy benefits, and capital flows [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, representing major Chinese tech companies, is attracting global attention due to its low valuation and high growth potential, especially after several constituent stocks reported better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings [1] - The Great Wall Hang Seng Tech Index QDII fund aims to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in Chinese tech assets by tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] Industry Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index consists of 30 of the largest tech companies listed in Hong Kong, primarily focused on non-essential consumer goods (54.3%) and information technology (40.7%), representing a significant cluster of China's core tech assets [1] - Many companies within the Hang Seng Tech Index are not listed on the A-share market, creating a complementary relationship with A-share tech assets, and are deeply involved in the AI industry chain across various sectors [2] - The constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index show strong growth potential, with a median revenue growth rate of 11.29% and a median net profit growth rate of 32.94% for the year 2024 [2] Investment Value - Since the "924" market rally, the Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced significant valuation recovery, rising from 3000 points to 6000 points within two quarters, despite a recent pullback [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown a 40.09% increase over the past year, outperforming major indices in Hong Kong and A-shares, indicating higher elasticity in the current tech market [3] - As of June 5, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 20.87, positioned at the 13.04% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a compelling opportunity for low-position investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of roses in the Taklamakan Desert symbolizes resilience and the ongoing efforts of local people in combating desertification, showcasing a blend of ecological, economic, and aesthetic benefits [1][2][3] Group 1: Environmental Efforts - The roses were planted during the successful completion of the "lock edge" project, highlighting the commitment to ecological restoration in a harsh environment with an average annual rainfall of less than 50mm and evaporation exceeding 3000mm [1] - The cultivation of drought-resistant rose varieties, which can root up to 3 meters deep, plays a crucial role in stabilizing sand dunes and preventing soil erosion [2] Group 2: Economic and Social Impact - The development of a rose processing industry aims to promote sustainable agriculture and increase income for local communities, indicating a strategic approach to economic development alongside environmental restoration [2] - The ongoing efforts in desert reclamation reflect a spirit of perseverance and innovation, as local communities continue to explore and implement effective solutions against desertification [2][3] Group 3: Future Prospects - The initiative to cultivate rice in the desert represents a broader "green revolution," emphasizing the potential for agricultural development in previously unproductive areas [3] - The narrative of transforming the "death sea" into a landscape of green miracles suggests a hopeful outlook for future ecological and agricultural advancements in the region [3]

Group 1 - China has not purchased US crude oil for two consecutive months, leading to a significant drop in US crude oil exports, which fell to 3.883 million barrels per day by the end of April, the lowest since 2020, a 4% month-on-month decrease [1][3] - In the same period last year, China imported 297,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the US, which was three times the current import volume [1] - The US has imposed high tariffs on Chinese imports, with crude oil and LNG tariffs reaching 94% and 99% respectively, resulting in a sharp decline in US oil exports to China [1][3] Group 2 - The US has lost approximately 18 million barrels of crude oil export orders in just two months, translating to a loss of several billion dollars based on current oil prices [3] - The US government has taken retaliatory measures against China, including restrictions on exports of key equipment and products related to nuclear power plants, as part of a broader strategy to pressure China [3] - The US Treasury Secretary emphasized that tariffs will be imposed on "dishonest negotiators," raising concerns about potential impacts on demand expectations [5] Group 3 - The US shale revolution has significantly increased domestic oil and gas production, improving trade balance and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [5] - Recent data shows a decrease in the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US, with a reduction of 10 rigs to 553, and major oil companies have announced significant job cuts globally [7] - Despite the challenges, employment in the US energy sector remains relatively stable this year, although capital expenditure budgets for major shale oil producers have been cut by approximately $1.8 billion [7]