Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell explained the rationale behind the rate cut during the press conference following the September meeting [3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed predicts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of this year, followed by 25 basis points cuts each year for the next two years [4] - Unemployment is expected to rise slightly but remain low, while overall inflation is described as "slightly high" [4] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation has rebounded recently but remains at a high level, with consumer spending decreasing contributing to a slowdown in economic growth [5] - The PCE price index is projected to rise by 2.7% in August, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [5] Labor Market Changes - Changes in the labor market, particularly due to immigration policy adjustments, have led to decreased labor demand [5] - The Fed may adjust its policy towards a more neutral stance as the labor market is no longer robust [5] Future Rate Decisions - Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to make significant rate adjustments, with the goal of stabilizing inflation around 2% [5] - The Fed's forecast for the federal funds rate by the end of 2025 is a median of 3.6%, lower than previous predictions [6] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the dollar initially fell significantly, reaching its lowest point since 2022, but rebounded after Powell's remarks [7] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December being likely [9]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year, which is higher than the previous forecast of 50 basis points[1] - The September meeting marked the first rate cut of the year, following a 25 basis point cut in December of the previous year[1] Economic Indicators - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, and by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for 2027[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for this year remains unchanged at 4.5%, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3%[4] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed estimates that tariffs contribute 0.3-0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation, but the impact is expected to diminish[2] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] Labor Market Concerns - There is an increased focus on the risks to the labor market, with the Fed noting that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen, although it remains low[1] - The Fed's statement emphasizes the balance between employment and inflation, indicating a shift in focus from inflation alone[1] Retail and Industrial Production - Retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, which was better than market expectations[4] - Industrial production turned positive in August, with manufacturing output increasing by 0.24% month-on-month[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points reflects growing concerns about slowing labor markets, despite persistent inflation pressures [2][5][6]. Rate Cuts and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates four times since 2024, with the latest adjustment bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25% [2][3]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest level since late 2021, indicating a slowdown in job creation [5]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-management cut," highlighting simultaneous cooling in both labor supply and demand [6]. Fed's Projections and Policy Outlook - The updated "dot plot" projections show a divided outlook among policymakers, with ten officials expecting two more rate cuts this year and nine anticipating only one [8]. - The Fed's longer-run neutral rate median remains at 3%, with some policymakers advocating for an even lower rate, reflecting uncertainty about the necessary policy tightening to manage inflation without hindering growth [9]. Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 260 points (0.6%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced slight declines [12]. - Rate-sensitive sectors, including blue-chip companies like Walmart and JPMorgan, saw gains, while high-flying tech stocks faced profit-taking [13]. Political Context - The rate cut decision occurred amid political pressure, with President Trump advocating for more aggressive rate cuts to support housing and manage government debt [11].

美联储主席鲍威尔在货币政策例会后的记者会上表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，美联储需 要平衡"双重使命的两端"。被问及有新的理事成员加入，鲍威尔强调美联储将坚定致力于保持其独立 性。对于25个基点的降息幅度，他认为市场已经提前消化了预期，但此次降息非常重要，是对劳动力市 场的支持。 声明称，最近的指标表明美国上半年经济活动有所放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于低 位。通胀率有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济 前景不确定性仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并判断就业形势的下行风险已经上 升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4% 至4.25%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率时，美联储将仔细评估后续数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。美联储将继续减持美国国债、机构债券和机构抵押贷款支持证券。 声明提到，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投票反对此次利率决策，主张将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调50个基点。 当天，美联储公布的经济预测概要显示，与6月时相比，美联储将今年的GDP增速预期中值 ...

当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布降息25个基点，把联邦基金利 率目标区间下调至4%到4.25%之间，该利率决议符合市场预期。 去年9月至12月期间，美联储在三次议息会议上连续降息共计100个基点，此后又连续五次"按兵不动"。 美联储如期降息25个基点，三大指数如坐过山车，最终收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道指涨260.42点，涨 幅为0.57%，报46018.32点；纳指跌72.63点，跌幅为0.33%，报22261.33点；标普500指数跌6.41点，跌 幅为0.10%，报6600.35点。 大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达跌2.62%，亚马逊跌1.04%，谷歌A跌0.65%，Meta跌0.42%，微软涨 0.19%，苹果涨0.35%，特斯拉涨1.01%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.85%。百度涨超11%，蔚来涨超6%，拼多多涨 4.5%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩、理想汽车涨超2%。 鲍威尔重磅发声 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔表示，美国劳动力市场的风险是今天决定的重点。美国劳动力市场活力减弱， 略微走软。风险平衡已发生转变，就业面临下行风险。加征关税可能是导致劳动力市场放缓 ...

Group 1 - Recent inflation has risen and remains at relatively high levels, primarily driven by increases in commodity prices, while the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation [1] - The labor market faces downside risks, with a noticeable slowdown in demand, low hiring rates, and low layoff rates indicating a weakening labor market, particularly affecting vulnerable groups [1] - There is no broad support for a rapid adjustment of interest rates, with the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut not widely endorsed [1] Group 2 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is working to address factors behind employment data revisions, with annual employment data adjustments aligning closely with expectations, and the Federal Reserve's reliance on BLS data remains sufficient for its needs [1] - The committee welcomes new members and remains committed to fulfilling its dual mandate while maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Among 19 policymakers, 10 anticipate two or more rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while the other 10 expect fewer cuts [1]

The U.S. central bank delivered an expected 0.25% rate cut at its September meeting. | Credit: Credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, the first reduction since December. The move reflects the Fed’s balancing act between a slowing labor market and still-elevated inflation. Bitcoin and other assets moved slightly down after the announcement. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut since December, trimming th ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point and anticipates two more cuts within the year [1] - Recent indicators show a moderation in economic activity growth during the first half of the year, with job gains slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2] - The Fed has expressed increased concerns regarding downside risks to employment, indicating a shift in focus from a previously solid labor market [3]

Group 1 - The company has delivered a low double-digit total return over the last 1.5 decades, indicating strong long-term performance [1] - Over a decade, the total return is in the mid- to high single digits, which is still considered exceptionally high [2] - The company has continued to grow its formidable business over time, despite varying starting points for returns [2] Group 2 - The economic landscape is characterized by a peculiar labor market, significantly influenced by immigration, which is affecting job numbers [2]

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision on interest rates at 2 PM Eastern time, with differing expectations from economists [1][2] - Veronica Clark anticipates five consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting today, citing a gradual weakening in the labor market [3][4] - Mark Vitner suggests that the Fed should consider cutting rates in only two of the next three meetings, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [5][6] Labor Market Insights - Clark expresses concern over the labor market risks, indicating a potential for layoffs and a need for the Fed to act [3][4] - Vitner acknowledges the weakening labor market but believes that aggressive cuts could lead to higher long-term rates, which would not benefit the housing market [6][18] - There is a discussion about the impact of tariffs on consumer spending and the overall economy, with a focus on the shift in spending from services to goods [9][10] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is described as "dead in the water," with a need for mortgage rates to drop below 6% to stimulate activity [6][19] - There is a significant inventory of new homes, the highest since 2007, which needs to be addressed for the market to recover [19][20] - Builders are currently hesitant to lower prices despite the inventory issues, indicating a challenging environment for the housing sector [19][20] Economic Outlook - The economists discuss the potential for a rebound in consumer spending, suggesting that recent uncertainties may have been temporary [12][14] - Concerns are raised about the long-term implications of the Fed's decisions on inflation and the overall economic landscape [8][18] - The conversation highlights the importance of effective communication from the Fed to manage market expectations and avoid negative reactions [18][21]