美联储理事库格勒：通胀回落的进展已放缓。劳动力市场状况基本保持稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The process of combating inflation is currently underway, but persistent indicators of inflation remain too high [1] Group 1: Inflation Indicators - Persistent indicators of inflation are still elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1] - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, which may impact inflation dynamics [1] Group 2: Consumer Sensitivity - Households may be more sensitive to inflation, suggesting potential changes in consumer behavior and spending patterns [1]

金十数据5月9日讯，牛津经济的经济学家迈克尔•达文波特说，加拿大4月份的就业报告表明，该国正在 陷入衰退，到今年年底，失业率将达到7.4%。由于与联邦选举相关的招聘，4月份的就业人数增加了 7400人。达文波特说，如果不是4月28日的全国投票，加拿大将连续第二个月就业人数下降。与此同 时，失业率从6.7%上升至6.9%。"加拿大劳动力市场的裂痕正在扩大，"达文波特说，但卡尼领导的自 由党政府的刺激措施可能会减轻加拿大经济未来的低迷。 牛津经济：加拿大劳动力市场出现"裂痕"，失业率将上升到7.4% ...

美联储威廉姆斯：到目前为止，劳动力市场已展现出强劲的韧性。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场稳定且具有韧性。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：劳动力市场可能接近充分就业。 ...

过去两次经济复苏表明3.5%的失业率是可持续的。 劳动力市场稳定，失业率仅缓慢上升。 美联储理事Kugler：劳动力市场可能接近充分就业。 ...

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decline in the labor market, income, and income expectations for April [1] Labor Market - The labor market showed signs of weakening, indicating potential challenges for employment growth [1] Income Trends - There was a noticeable decrease in income levels, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Income Expectations - Expectations regarding future income have also declined, suggesting a more cautious outlook among consumers [1]

美国首次申请失业救济金人数超预期下降，削弱了市场对劳动力即将恶化的预期。 根据美国劳工部周四发布的数据，5月3日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数下降13,000至228,000人，低于市场预测的230,000人，结束了纽约州春假期间 的申请数量短暂飙升的情况。 与此同时，4月26日当周，持续申请失业救济的人数—衡量就业情况的代理指标—也下降了29,000至187.9万人，好于预期的189.5万人。 申请失业救济的人数下降，表明就业市场仍具韧性，与CEO们不断发出的警告形成鲜明对比。自新冠疫情以来，首申人数一直在20万-25万的健康范围内 波动，表明企业仍然不愿解雇在疫情期间难以招募的员工。 企业高管们不断警告商业环境恶化，但数据显示仍没有出现大规模裁员。这种矛盾情况能持续多久？ 表面上看，劳动力市场仍坚如磐石，但下方的裂缝正在扩大。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)上周的一项调查显示，4月份制造业就业仍然低迷，并指出"裁员是主要工具，表明减少人头变得更加紧迫"。 Workday、陶氏化学、CNN、星巴克、西南航空和Meta等公司今年都已宣布裁员计划。然而，整体而言，这些裁员规模相对有限，尚未在全国就业数据中 产生显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury and MBS at the current pace [6]. Economic Conditions - The unemployment rate has stabilized, and the labor market remains resilient, but risks of high unemployment and inflation have increased. Economic uncertainty has further risen, although economic activity continues to expand at a "steady pace" despite fluctuations in net exports [7]. Interest Rate Outlook - The current uncertainty requires the Federal Reserve to remain patient, with all members supporting this wait-and-see approach. There is no immediate need to adjust rates, and the Fed can act swiftly if circumstances change [8]. Inflation Outlook - Short-term inflation expectations have risen, while long-term expectations remain aligned with targets. The persistence of inflation will depend on the scale, timing, and expectations surrounding tariffs [9]. Employment Outlook - Wage growth has continued to slow, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment levels. Consideration of the distance and time to bridge any gaps between dual objectives is necessary [10]. Economic Slowdown - There are no signs of economic slowdown in actual data, and the economy remains robust. However, uncertainty is high, and the risks of economic downturn have increased [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs have been larger than expected, but no significant economic impact has been observed from tariff data so far. The inflation effects of policies may be temporary, and ongoing trade negotiations could substantially change the situation [12]. Market Reactions - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates varying probabilities for future interest rate changes, with a notable percentage expecting the Fed to maintain rates or implement a 25 basis point cut [14][15]. Institutional Analysis - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, with good employment data supporting the current stance. There is a consensus that a more significant rate cut may be necessary if the Fed waits too long [16][19][21].