美联储沃勒：通胀正回落至2%，目前最大的担忧是劳动力市场。 来源：滚动播报 ...

此外，达拉斯联储主席洛根也表示，美联储本周不应降息，12月也不应再次降息。她指出，劳动力市 场"总体平衡"，无需立即提供支持，而通胀看起来可能在较长时间内维持在2%的目标之上。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他本周投票反对降息的决定，因为他担心经济增长和投资将对通胀构成 上行压力。 施密德在周五发布的一份声明中表示："在我看来，劳动力市场已基本恢复平衡，经济持续显示出增长 势头，但通胀率依然过高。" 施密德指出，从宽松的金融市场状况来看，目前的货币政策仅仅是适度紧缩。 这是施密德作为美联储官员首次投下反对票。他于2023年加入，并于今年首次成为联邦公开市场委员会 的投票委员。美联储理事米兰在本周的会议上也投下了反对票，他倾向于将联邦基金利率下调50个基 点。 美联储官员周四投票决定将基准利率下调25个基点，这是两个月来的第二次降息，旨在提振放缓的劳动 力市场。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后告诉记者，市场普遍预期的12月再次降息并非板上钉钉，并指出他的 一些同事对通胀表示担忧。 美国劳工部本月早些时候报告称，截至9月的一年里，消费者价格上涨了3%，并且通胀率已经连续四年 多高于美联储2%的目标。施密德重申，他所在辖区的企 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating uncertainty in the labor market, which complicates their decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3][4] - There is a cautious tone from the Fed, as they lack real-time data on jobs and economic indicators, leading to a reliance on interpretation rather than concrete data [4][6] - The market seems to be absorbing the impact of tariffs as temporary and muted, with inflation remaining above the Fed's target but not showing significant upward pressure [8][9][10] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is preserving optionality in their approach to interest rates, indicating a division within the committee on future rate paths [2][4] - There is a suggestion that the labor market's weakness may be prolonged rather than a short-term blip, which could influence future rate cuts [4][5] - The Fed is cautious about making decisions based on sentiment rather than data, highlighting the importance of upcoming labor market data [6][10] Inflation and Market Response - Long-term Treasury yields are not reflecting heightened inflation concerns, suggesting that the market is comfortable with the current inflation levels [7][10] - Inflation has not shown a significant decline, remaining flat due to tariffs, but there is an expectation that it will eventually decrease as tariffs are absorbed [9][10] - The Fed is wary of incorporating assumptions into their policy decisions without clearer labor market data, which could lead to unexpected outcomes [10]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dampened expectations for a holiday rate cut, indicating that a December reduction is uncertain due to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% as of October 29, but Powell emphasized that certainty regarding future cuts is lacking [2][5]. - Powell highlighted the ongoing government shutdown as a factor that hampers the Fed's access to crucial economic data, contributing to uncertainty in policy decisions [2][3]. Labor Market and Inflation - Powell noted signs of a cooling labor market and persistent inflation, which currently stands at 3%, above the Fed's target of 2% [6]. - He described the current situation as a "risk management" scenario, where both inflation and labor market conditions present challenges [6]. Committee Dynamics - There are strong disagreements among Federal Reserve voting members regarding the path forward, with some advocating for a cautious approach to assess potential risks to the labor market [4]. - Powell stated that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed, reflecting the divided views within the committee [4]. Market Reactions - Futures markets, which previously anticipated a rate cut, shifted their expectations following Powell's comments, now predicting that the Fed will maintain current rates [7]. - Some economists have adjusted their expectations for a rate cut at the end of the year, citing a less threatening inflation outlook due to various mitigating factors [8]. Future Projections - Despite a tempered outlook, some economists still expect a December rate cut, with a belief that additional cuts may be necessary next year to support growth [9].

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October and plans to end balance sheet reduction in December[1] - The December rate cut is not guaranteed, with the Fed emphasizing the need to monitor upcoming data post-government shutdown[2] Economic Indicators - Core inflation, excluding tariff impacts, is nearing the 2% target, with the core PCE expected to be in the range of 2.3%-2.4%[3] - Recent employment data indicates a cooling labor market, but the trend of weakness has not intensified[3] Internal Disagreements - There remains internal dissent within the Fed, with two members voting against the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a 50 basis point reduction instead[2] - The division among Fed members adds uncertainty to the December rate decision[2] Data Dependency - The upcoming release of economic data following the government shutdown will be crucial for the December monetary policy meeting[3] - The lack of government data during the shutdown has created a vacuum that private sector data cannot fill[3] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential inflation from rapid rate cuts or renewed tariffs, and slower cuts could lead to economic recession[3]

Summary of FOMC October Meeting Recap Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly focusing on interest rates and economic indicators. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Adjustment**: The FOMC lowered the target range for the funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% during the October meeting [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Management**: The FOMC announced that balance sheet runoff would conclude at the start of December, with principal payments of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested solely into Treasury bills [3][4] 3. **Inflation Insights**: Chair Powell indicated that inflation, excluding tariff effects, is nearing the 2% target, with tariff impacts estimated to have raised prices by 0.5-0.6% [4][12] 4. **Labor Market Trends**: Alternative data suggests a gradual cooling in the labor market, which aligns with the analysis presented [4][10] 5. **Hawkish Tone**: Powell's press conference was more hawkish than anticipated, avoiding references to the September dot plot that suggested a third cut in December [5][8] 6. **Diverse Opinions within FOMC**: Powell acknowledged differing views among FOMC members regarding the December cut, with some advocating for a wait-and-see approach [6][7] 7. **Data Collection Challenges**: The government shutdown has hindered the release of official economic data, complicating the FOMC's decision-making process [11] 8. **Future Policy Stance**: Powell views the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, which may necessitate another cut unless the labor market stabilizes by December [12] Additional Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The bond market perceived Powell's statements as a hawkish surprise, indicating potential volatility in response to future policy changes [5][8] - **Labor Market Weakness**: There is a belief that genuine labor market weakness exists, which could lead to negative payroll reports and further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - **Risk Management Cuts**: There is substantial opposition within the FOMC regarding risk management cuts, suggesting a complex internal dynamic influencing policy decisions [8][9] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the FOMC's October meeting, highlighting the implications for monetary policy and economic conditions.

当地时间10月29日，美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.75%-4%，这也是年内连续第二次降息。 一图速览>> ■ AI数据中心"对利率敏感度 不高" : | | Jan | Feb | 削一 Mar | Apr | May | -轮加息周期累计加息525个基点 Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022 | | | 25 | | 50 | 75 | 75 | | 75 | | 75 | (50) | | 2023 | | 25 | 25 | | 25 | | 25 | | | | | | | 2024 | | | | | | | | | 50 | | 25 | 25 | | 0000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 鲍威尔打压市场对于 12 月会议将再度降息的预期：12月降息"远非板上钉钉"，他还有哪些表态？ 美联储宣布结束QT ...

Core Points - The committee has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 2.75% to 4% [1] - Labor market conditions are gradually cooling, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to negatively impact economic activity, but these effects are anticipated to reverse once the shutdown concludes [1] Economic Indicators - Data indicating a strengthening or stabilization of the labor market will influence future decisions regarding the federal funds rate [2] - There are differing opinions within the committee about the approach to take in December, indicating uncertainty about further rate reductions [2] - A reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not guaranteed [2]

尽管通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但美联储仍宣布第二次降息。 尽管通胀率仍高于央行目标，但美联储周三宣布今年第二次降息，以支持劳动力市场。 美联储决策者投票决定将基准联邦基金利率下调25个基点，至3.75%至4%的新区间。此举是继9月份同等幅度的降息之后进行的，也 是今年以来的首次降息。 政策制定者一直在密切关注经济数据， 数据显示，近几个月来，由于企业努力应对贸易和移民政策的变化，劳动力市场增速放缓。 与此同时，随着关税相关价格上涨反映在政府数据中，通胀趋势持续走高。 这些趋势让美联储陷入两难境地，因为它既要实现稳定物价以达到 2% 的长期通胀目标，又要促进充分就业。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储将继续密切关注就业和通胀风险。 主席表示，9 月份消费者价格指数显示，商品价格上涨是由于关税相关的价格上涨所致，而住房服务价格上涨趋势呈下降趋势，非 住房服务价格近几个月来一直保持平稳。 他解释说："如果把所有这些因素加起来，剔除关税后的通胀率实际上与我们2%的目标相差不大。我们估计——当然，人们对这个 数字的估计各不相同——它可能在0.5到0.6个百分点之间，所以如果通胀率为2.8%，那么剔除关税后的核心 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]