流动性日报 | 2025-06-17 市场流动性概况 2025-06-16，股指板块成交4616.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.42%；持仓金额9694.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.31%；成交持仓比为47.49%。 国债板块成交2394.90亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.54%；持仓金额8331.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成交 持仓比为29.54%。 基本金属板块成交2097.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.50%；持仓金额3901.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.65%；成 交持仓比为77.09%。 贵金属板块成交4715.30亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.93%；持仓金额4805.30亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为99.90%。 能源化工板块成交6987.66亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.72%；持仓金额3891.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.05%；成 交持仓比为131.17%。 农产品板块成交4256.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.51%；持仓金额5499.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.40%；成 交持仓比为62.74%。 黑色建材板块成交2161. ...

Group 1 - The overall financial operation in China shows stable growth in total volume and continuous optimization in structure, with M2 balance at 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The social financing scale stock reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7%, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - Government bonds have become the main driver of social financing growth, with net financing of government bonds increasing by 1.46 trillion yuan in May, accounting for over 60% of the new social financing scale [1] Group 2 - Corporate bond financing has significantly increased, with net financing scale exceeding 140 billion yuan in May, reflecting a recovery trend since the second quarter [2] - The implementation of new policies for the "technology board" has boosted the issuance of technology innovation bonds, particularly among private enterprises [2] - The average yield of 5-year AAA corporate bonds decreased to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] Group 3 - Personal mortgage loans have increased, with new resident loans of 54 billion yuan in May, indicating a marginal improvement in the real estate market [2] - The increase in long-term loans is primarily due to improved transactions in the real estate market, particularly in high-capacity urban core areas [2] - The growth of demand for personal mortgages suggests a gradual recovery in consumer confidence, although challenges in inventory reduction and structural optimization in real estate remain [2] Group 4 - The growth rate of demand deposits has accelerated, with M1 increasing by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting improved market demand due to financial support measures [3] - The increase in M1 indicates a rise in real purchasing power, while the flow of funds between deposits and wealth management products has become more frequent [3] - The central bank's recent financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and the creation of structural monetary policy tools, are expected to continue to ensure stable economic development [3]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.5514% to 1.5811%, a rise of 2.97 basis points, while DR007 decreased from 1.5323% to 1.502%, a drop of 3.03 basis points, resulting in a widening spread of 6.00 basis points between R007 and DR007 [9][11] - The net inflow of funds this week was 709.14 billion, an increase of 142.27 billion from the previous week, with total fund supply at 1323.94 billion and demand at 614.80 billion [11][12] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - The performance of the CITIC first-level industries was mixed, with non-ferrous metals and oil & petrochemicals leading gains at approximately 3.95% and 3.31% respectively, while food & beverage and computer sectors saw the largest declines at 4.42% and 2.25% respectively [16][18] - The pharmaceutical sector exhibited high overall congestion, with financials showing high congestion from volatility and turnover rates, while non-ferrous metals displayed high congestion from a momentum perspective, indicating elevated risk [29][30] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Growth style maintained the highest daily trading volume share at 48.79%, while financial and cyclical styles saw slight increases in their trading volume shares [32][33] - Daily turnover rates for growth style remained the highest at 2.48%, whereas financial and stable styles maintained relatively low turnover rates [32]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall market experienced a net outflow of funds amounting to 82.66 billion, while trading activity increased with a total transaction volume of 6.86 trillion, reflecting a rise in turnover rate to 7.85% [6][8][23] - The IPO financing for the week was recorded at 2.653 billion, with a total of 3 companies participating, while refinancing reached 2.207 billion from 4 companies [32][31] - The report highlights that the net inflow of margin financing was 8.102 billion, with margin trading accounting for 8.59% of the total A-share transaction volume [23][24] Group 2 - The report notes a decrease in the issuance scale of equity funds to 1.282 billion, down from the previous week [19][20] - The report identifies the top three sectors for fund accumulation as pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials, while the sectors with the largest reductions were food and beverage, computers, and household appliances [20][21] - The report mentions that the total amount of restricted shares released was 62.41 billion, with the electronics, computers, and construction decoration sectors having the highest release volumes [36][37] Group 3 - The report states that the liquidity in the domestic market weakened, with a net withdrawal of 727 billion from open market operations [8][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds remained stable, leading to a narrowing of the yield spread [8][9] - The report indicates that the market anticipates a 96.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in June [6][16]

流动性日报 | 2025-06-16 市场流动性概况 2025-06-13，股指板块成交4933.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.44%；持仓金额10027.00亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.01%；成交持仓比为48.88%。 国债板块成交2770.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+14.89%；持仓金额8244.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.44%；成交 持仓比为34.34%。 基本金属板块成交2481.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.16%；持仓金额3926.61亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.61%； 成交持仓比为85.91%。 贵金属板块成交6365.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.96%；持仓金额4771.44亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.97%；成 交持仓比为140.74%。 能源化工板块成交7571.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+80.92%；持仓金额3851.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.15%； 成交持仓比为158.63%。 农产品板块成交3474.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.29%；持仓金额5371.20亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.56%；成 交持仓比为54.00%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-13 市场流动性概况 2025-06-12，股指板块成交4029.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.54%；持仓金额9733.95亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.03%；成交持仓比为41.37%。 国债板块成交2410.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.13%；持仓金额8280.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.25%；成交 持仓比为29.63%。 基本金属板块成交2082.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.24%；持仓金额3990.68亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.13%；成 交持仓比为69.66%。 贵金属板块成交4787.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+31.30%；持仓金额4679.35亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.22%；成 交持仓比为108.41%。 能源化工板块成交4185.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.32%；持仓金额3845.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.65%； 成交持仓比为81.08%。 农产品板块成交2606.83亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.66%；持仓金额5401.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.28%；成交 持仓比为45.80%。 黑色建材板块成交1692 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-11 市场流动性概况 2025-06-10，股指板块成交5126.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.44%；持仓金额9879.64亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.12%；成交持仓比为51.64%。 国债板块成交2488.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.22%；持仓金额8154.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.03%；成交 持仓比为31.55%。 基本金属板块成交2237.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.27%；持仓金额3959.73亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.47%；成 交持仓比为85.21%。 贵金属板块成交4482.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.50%；持仓金额4603.73亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.94%；成交 持仓比为125.04%。 能源化工板块成交4039.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；持仓金额3745.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.03%；成 交持仓比为90.94%。 农产品板块成交2639.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.92%；持仓金额5367.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为45.28%。 黑色建材板块成交2230.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - For steel, the spot price fluctuates while the futures price rebounds from the low. Supply sees a decline in blast furnace and electric furnace production. Inventory shows a slowdown in building material destocking and an accumulation of plate stock. Demand weakens for both building materials and plates. Profits remain high for blast furnaces but narrow for electric furnaces. The basis changes little, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel will weaken next week, and the black market is expected to return to a weak downward state. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and take partial profits when new lows are reached [6]. - For iron ore, the ore price fluctuates with the futures price rebounding from the low. Supply increases in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals. Demand drops as blast furnace production declines. Inventory decreases slightly at ports and among downstream users. Shipping prices rise. The spread on the futures market narrows, and the coke - ore ratio increases. The supply improves while the demand slows down, and the industry fundamentals are still weak. Next week, it may be dragged down by the weakening of steel products and return to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling view, add short positions on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price of rebar rebounds after hitting a new low this year, with the 10 - contract rising 14 to 2975. The spot price fluctuates, with rebar in East China at 3120 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.56%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.06 percentage points year - on - year. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output is 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week and up 6.05 tons year - on - year [14]. - Electric furnace production: The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week - on - week and up 5.67 percentage points year - on - year. Short - process steel production shows signs of active production cuts due to difficulties in scrap collection and weak demand [20]. - Product output: Rebar production decreases by 7.05 tons, mainly due to rolling - line maintenance and the diversion of hot - metal to profiles and billets. Hot - rolled coil production increases by 9.1 tons to 328.75 tons, mainly in East and North China [23]. 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials: From May 28 to June 3, the national cement outbound volume is 315.7 tons, down 9.8% week - on - week and 25.4% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement is 173 tons, down 7.0% week - on - week and 6.5% year - on - year. The demand drops significantly due to the college entrance examination and rainy weather [26]. - Plates: In May 2025, the monthly average working hours of major construction machinery products are 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year - on - year and 6.25% month - on - month. The monthly start - up rate is 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year - on - year and 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. The internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry weakens [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace: The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, flat week - on - week and up 6.06 percentage points year - on - year. Blast furnace profits are relatively high due to coke price concessions [34]. - Electric furnace: The overall profitability of independent electric arc furnace steel mills continues to decline. The proportion of slightly profitable steel mills decreases by 4.13% week - on - week, and the proportion of loss - making steel mills increases by 8.26% week - on - week. Electric furnaces are basically in the red during peak - power periods, and the short - process loss ratio is high [34]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar: Mill inventory decreases by 1.6 tons, and social inventory decreases by 8.97 tons. The destocking speed slows down, in line with the off - season characteristics [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Mill inventory increases by 1.33 tons, mainly in North China. Total inventory increases by 6.5 tons, corresponding to increased production and weakening demand [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 - contract is 165, narrowing 4 from last week. It is recommended to take profits on previous positive - arbitrage positions around 100 and continue to pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is 4, with the inversion situation reversing completely compared to last week. The near - term price is expected to fall due to the off - season, and the far - term price also faces callback risks, so the far - term price inversion cannot last [49]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 117, widening 2 from last week. The spot spread is 90, widening 60 from last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and there is no obvious driving force for further narrowing, so no operation is recommended [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore rebounds from the low, with the 09 - contract rising 5.5 to 707.5. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rises 1 to 733 yuan/ton. Market sentiment recovers slightly, and downstream users replenish stocks normally [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments: The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3431 tons, up 242 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 3209.4 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 55 tons compared to May last year [60]. - Australia and Brazil shipments: The weekly average shipment volume from Australia is 1852.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 17 tons compared to May last year. The weekly average from Brazil is 793.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 69 tons compared to May last year [63]. - Arrivals: The arrival volume at 47 ports is 2597.4 tons, up 253 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 2485.26 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 25 tons compared to May last year [66]. 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.8 tons per day, down 0.11 tons per day week - on - week, up 13.36 tons per day compared to the beginning of the year, and up 6.05 tons per day year - on - year [69]. - Speculative demand: The daily average port transaction volume is 90 tons, down 2.8 tons week - on - week. Due to continuous hot - metal production cuts and weakening demand, the downstream purchasing intensity is slow [72]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports is 14400.31 tons, down 69 tons week - on - week, down 1210 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1137 tons lower than the same period last year [75]. - Downstream inventory: The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2532.11 tons, down 66.98 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 115.57 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous period [78]. 3.2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China is 10.5 dollars/ton, up 1.6 dollars/ton week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China is 24.6 dollars/ton, up 2.6 dollars/ton week - on - week [81]. 3.2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 36, widening 0.5 from last week, with little change overall. The basis of the 09 - contract is at a neutral - low level, narrowing 12 last week [83]. - The coke - ore ratio is 1.92, and the rebar - ore ratio is 4.21. The coke - ore ratio widens, and the rebar - ore ratio is basically flat. Considering the overall decline of the black - series market, the spread trading fluidity is not high [86].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a fixed quantity, interest rate auction, and multiple price bidding model for reverse repos starting from October 2024, indicating a shift towards a more market-oriented approach in liquidity management [2][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On June 6, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, amidst 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos maturing in June [1][3]. - The new auction model for reverse repos will resemble the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, with fixed quantity and interest rate determined by market bidding [2][4]. - The PBOC's approach aims to maintain reasonable liquidity levels, with reverse repos providing 3-month and 6-month funding options, while MLF will offer 1-year funding [2][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - In May, the PBOC's long-term liquidity supply exceeded 1 trillion yuan, countering government bond repayment pressures, with net repayments of 910.2 billion yuan for government bonds being the highest since 2025 [3]. - The PBOC is expected to continue net injections through MLF in June, with a low pressure for excess renewals due to the smaller MLF maturity scale of 182 billion yuan [3][5]. - The central bank's liquidity management strategy remains focused on maintaining ample liquidity through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF, while observing the impact of recent interest rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The pricing for reverse repos will be more market-driven, similar to MLF, with the interest rates likely aligning with the yields of corresponding maturity interbank certificates of deposit [4]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a non-disclosure policy for the winning bid rates in reverse repos, ensuring that the 7-day reverse repo rate remains the primary policy rate [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Following the recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, the focus will shift to the effectiveness of reverse repos and other conventional operations in the upcoming months [5]. - The next significant policy direction observation is anticipated during the Central Political Bureau meeting in July, with expectations for continued loose monetary policy through various liquidity tools [5].

流动性日报 | 2025-06-06 市场流动性概况 2025-06-05，股指板块成交3991.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.72%；持仓金额9595.98亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.45%；成交持仓比为41.36%。 国债板块成交3469.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.74%；持仓金额7762.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.86%；成交 持仓比为44.90%。 基本金属板块成交1850.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.00%；持仓金额3742.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.36%；成 交持仓比为71.20%。 贵金属板块成交3381.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.50%；持仓金额4526.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成交 持仓比为61.83%。 能源化工板块成交4186.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.12%；持仓金额3681.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.33%；成 交持仓比为91.70%。 农产品板块成交2316.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.76%；持仓金额5202.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.57%；成 交持仓比为39.73%。 黑色建材板块成交2219.3 ...