Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with overall prices approaching 1100 yuan per gram, as seen in various brand stores [1] - The highest price is from Chow Sang Sang at 1100 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 1011 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 89 yuan [1] - Specific gold prices from major brands include: Lao Miao at 1097 yuan, Liufu at 1098 yuan, and Zhou Dafu at 1098 yuan, all showing an increase of 10-13 yuan [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum jewelry prices have also increased, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum price rising by 5 yuan per gram to 572 yuan per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has surged by 13.2 yuan per gram, with various brand recovery prices showing significant differences [2] - Specific recovery prices include: 838.00 yuan for gold, 843.50 yuan for Cai Zhi, and 851.00 yuan for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 4: International Gold Market - Spot gold prices have reached a historical high of 3748.65 USD per ounce, closing at 3746.36 USD per ounce with a 1.68% increase [4] - Current spot gold is reported at 3755.17 USD per ounce, indicating a 0.24% rise, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a declining dollar index [4] - Geopolitical events, including the French debt crisis and Middle East tensions, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting gold prices [4] - The shift in gold market dynamics includes increased participation from Western institutional investors, as evidenced by rising gold ETF holdings [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking a significant increase from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1, representing an almost 8% rise within the month [1]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 40%, reflecting strong demand and market dynamics [1]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has led to initial volatility in gold prices, with a brief retreat following the announcement [2]. - Despite the initial drop, gold prices rebounded due to continued expectations of further rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against potential risks [2][3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by ongoing monetary easing expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [4]. - Central banks continue to maintain a net buying stance on gold, with a reported net increase of 10 tons in global official gold reserves as of July 2025, indicating sustained institutional demand [4].

说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五现货黄金盘中不断震荡，晚间出现拉升。最终收报3684.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.10%。今日金价继 续保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3705.72美元/盎司，涨幅0.58%。 上周五金价的回升主要是市场对美联储降息预期升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储 10月降息的预期为91.9%，12月降息预期更是高达98.9%。而紧张的地缘政治局势也是金价上涨的重要 支撑。 9月22日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价涨势又起，价格再次接近上周的高位。其中，周生生黄 金上涨8元，报价1090元/克，为今日的最高价金店。上海中国黄金继续维持999元/克的报价，还是最低 价金店。今日的金店高低价差已扩大至91元。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年9月22日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1084 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1085 | 元/克 | 7 ...

Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts leading to a recovery in gold prices after an initial drop [2] - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that a 50 basis point cut is appropriate, suggesting a consensus among officials regarding rate cuts, which may intensify the ongoing conflict between Trump and the Fed [2] - If the Fed cuts rates in the next two meetings, it could signal a recessionary rate cut, increasing market risk aversion and benefiting gold [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a bullish reversal, with support at $3666 [2] Oil - Oil prices experienced a downward trend despite previous rebounds, with market sentiment potentially affected by new sanctions against Russia from the EU [4] - The EU's upcoming sanctions aim to target key aspects of the global oil industry, including reducing Russian oil exports and limiting Indian imports of Russian oil [4] - The number of shadow tankers under EU sanctions has exceeded 560, with a price cap on Russian oil set at $47.6 per barrel [4] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a potential end to the recent rebound, with resistance at $63.50 [7] Copper - Copper's daily chart shows a slight bullish trend, but the momentum is weak, making it difficult to change the current market structure [5] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant support from long-term moving averages, with a key level to watch at $4.58; if surpassed, it may target $4.65 [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index's daily chart shows a hanging man candlestick pattern, indicating severe overbought conditions and a potential market top [6] - The 1-hour chart suggests that the upward structure has completed, with a high likelihood of a descending ABC pattern forming, and resistance at 45600 should be monitored [6]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is weak due to strong market risk - aversion sentiment and near - end spot pressure. Although the USDA's September monthly supply - demand report is slightly bearish, the market reaction is limited. With the relative stability of CBOT soybeans, the domestic soybean meal market is affected by external news. In the short term, it may have difficulty rebounding due to poor technical performance, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price cannot be expected to drop significantly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the time window for long positions may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 declined. The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer market oscillated at 1045 cents. The USDA's September report slightly adjusted the planting area, yield per unit, and demand of soybeans, with a final ending inventory of 300 million bushels, slightly higher than the previous 290 million bushels, showing a slight bearish signal [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak because of strong risk - aversion sentiment and spot pressure. The news of Trump's potential visit to China and a possible purchase agreement of US goods has led to early risk - aversion by market bulls. There is currently a relative lack of positive news, and the market is easily influenced by external news. The short - term technical performance is poor, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price will not drop significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the long - position time window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA: The expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season in September is 4.301 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The expected ending inventory is 300 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 288 million bushels. The expected yield per unit is 53.5 bushels per acre, higher than the market expectation of 53.3 bushels per acre. - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as the market expectation; the harvest rate was 5%, the same as the market expectation; and the defoliation rate was 41% [9][10]. - Abiove: The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season remains at 170.3 million tons. The estimated soybean export volume in 2025 remains at 109.5 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume in 2025 is adjusted up to 58.5 million tons. The estimated soybean meal production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 45.1 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 23.6 million tons. The estimated soybean oil production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 11.7 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 1.35 million tons [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][12][18]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances, with forecasts for gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce sooner than previously anticipated [1][2][3] Gold Market Analysis - As of September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3,731.9 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 6% in September, surpassing the 5% increase in August [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2] - UBS predicts gold prices will rise to $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of reaching $4,000 per ounce amid geopolitical or economic risks [2] - JPMorgan has revised its gold price forecast to an average of $3,800 per ounce in Q4 2023, with expectations of surpassing $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, driven by increased investor demand [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also on the rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 41% year-to-date, outperforming gold's 35% increase [4] - The Shanghai silver futures market has entered a new phase, surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram [4] - The silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [4][5] - Despite optimism for silver prices, JPMorgan expresses greater confidence in the gold market, citing silver's complex outlook and significant industrial demand that may be impacted by macroeconomic risks [5] Macro Economic Factors - The weakening US job market, with non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and an unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, is contributing to heightened market volatility and increased demand for precious metals [5] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and rising US deficit rates are expected to further undermine the credibility of the US dollar and US Treasury securities, intensifying the global trend of "de-dollarization" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and investment trends in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) which experienced a market pullback but saw significant net subscriptions [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 181 million yuan in the past 20 days, reaching a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15 [1] - Key component stocks such as China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, and others have seen declines exceeding 5%, negatively impacting the index performance, while stocks like Lichung Group and Baowu Magnesium have shown positive performance [1] Group 2 - On September 15, spot gold closed at a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to boost non-ferrous metal prices by increasing the attractiveness of physical assets, depreciating the dollar, and lowering borrowing costs for companies, which could enhance demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] - The current market dynamics suggest a tight supply-demand balance for industrial metals, with emerging industry demands and limited supply growth contributing to price stability [4] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is emphasized due to their benefits from global geopolitical dynamics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to positively influence the lithium, cobalt, and aluminum sectors, leading to a valuation recovery in these areas [4] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the performance of the non-ferrous metal index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and gold, thus providing risk diversification for investors [4]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce [1][3] - Market analysts noted that pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has raised market concerns, while deteriorating U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations for rate cuts [3] - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, has further heightened market risk aversion [3] Group 2 - The manager of Huaan Gold ETF expressed optimism regarding the medium to long-term allocation value of gold, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - If rate cuts exceed expectations, it would provide additional benefits for gold, especially given the current high levels of U.S. debt and deficits, which raise questions about the long-term sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions has sparked global concerns, potentially undermining the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is factored into gold pricing [3]

Price Stability in Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with slight declines observed in some stores. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram, now priced at 1073 yuan per gram, which is among the highest in the market [1] - Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 999 yuan per gram, with the price difference between the highest and lowest stores narrowing to 74 yuan [1] Gold Price Overview - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: - Lao Miao Gold: 1071 yuan per gram (down 2) - Chow Tai Fook: 1073 yuan per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu: 1038 yuan per gram (no change) [1][3] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry dropping by 7 yuan per gram to 554 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling prices show a slight decrease of 1.7 yuan per gram. The recycling prices from different brands are as follows: - Cai Bai Gold: 824.30 yuan per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 816.60 yuan per gram - Zhou Dafu: 822.90 yuan per gram - Lao Fengxiang: 831.80 yuan per gram [4] International Gold Market Dynamics - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a historical high of 3673.55 USD per ounce before closing at 3625.04 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to gold price increases. However, the situation is deemed manageable, leading to a reduction in risk aversion [7] - The significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further stimulating gold prices [7]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is urging the U.S. Supreme Court to quickly overturn a previous ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries by President Trump as illegal [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the appellate court's ruling severely undermines the President's ability to conduct foreign policy and protect national security and the economy [1] - If the ruling is delayed until June 2026, the tariffs collected could reach between $750 billion to $1 trillion, and returning these tariffs could cause significant disruption [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence being undermined," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional investors are continuously increasing their allocation to precious metals, driving prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data such as non-farm payrolls will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3][4]