1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price remains high - oscillating due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,335.00 yuan/ton, up 690.00 yuan; the main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum was 253,076.00 hands, down 8056.00 hands. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,818.00 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan; the main contract position of alumina was 429,905.00 hands, up 19,914.00 hands. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,995.00 yuan/ton, up 475.00 yuan; the main contract position of cast aluminum alloy was 20,162.00 hands, up 1,863.00 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 130.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,085.50 US dollars/ton, up 64.50 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.89, up 0.06 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 59,275.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 506,750.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 129,818.00 tons, up 1,310.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,793.00 tons, up 553.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 84,204.00 tons, up 1,408.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,910.00 yuan/ton, up 600.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100.00 yuan/ton, up 650.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,340.00 yuan/ton, up 610.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 505.00 yuan/ton, down 205.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 425.00 yuan/ton, down 90.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 208.00 yuan/ton, down 48.00 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount was - 220.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 27.69 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Quantities**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,200.00 yuan/ton, up 700.00 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,450.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. China's import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2]. - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.20 million tons, up 7.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import quantity of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 19.03%, up 1.98%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 15.44%, up 1.49% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25.26%, up 0.0366; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.0467 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem, cultivation of application scenarios, and exploration of business models for new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement the green consumption promotion action, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliance promised not to raise the price of household air - conditioners and had no plan for "aluminum instead of copper" [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 137,940.00 | +7960.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -139,326.00 | -12863.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 534,999.00 | +19707.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -2,980.00 | -580.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 23,141.00 | +28 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on promoting green consumption through regulatory measures and systematic arrangements by the State Administration for Market Regulation [1][2][3] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released 40 green product evaluation standards and 66 energy and water efficiency standards, enhancing the national standard system [1] - The administration has proposed 217 items related to green consumption in international standardization organizations and has led the revision of 178 standards [1] - The administration has published 18 batches of energy efficiency product catalogs, covering over 26,000 registered enterprises and 4 million product models, impacting 76 million consumers [2] Group 3 - Measures to curb food waste include the issuance of an initiative to stop food waste during holidays and the implementation of guidelines for online food delivery platforms [2] - The administration plans to enhance the energy and water efficiency labeling system and support the implementation of "old-for-new" policies [3] - Future actions include updating national standards, promoting green dining service labels on internet platforms, and strengthening law enforcement against violations in green consumption [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals declines slightly, and the expectation of tight ore persists, so the cost - support logic of copper prices is solid. The supply of refined copper in China will gradually slow down. The high - level copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the spot market trading sentiment becomes cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and cautious demand, with accumulated social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward trend. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 105,320 yuan/ton, up 3,970 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,342 US dollars/ton, up 350.5 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 223,647 lots, up 7,332 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3,287 lots. LME copper inventory is 142,550 tons, down 2,775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The LME copper注销仓单 quantity is 32,650 tons, down 2,125 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 93,271 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,665 yuan/ton, up 3,090 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1,325 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,655 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.98 US dollars/ton, up 3.38 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 74,700 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.98 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.08 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,920 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 91,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the north processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.236 million tons, up 32,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,590 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,950 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.226 million tons, up 222,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 2.15 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.32%, up 2.51 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.54%, up 1.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.27%, up 0.0294 percentage points. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, down 0.0065 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in December 2025 is 1.57 million, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 is 15.33 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25%. Gree Electric Appliance promised not to increase the price of household air - conditioners and has no "aluminum for copper" plan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government, through the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, has launched a comprehensive initiative to promote green consumption, outlining 20 measures across seven areas to enhance sustainable practices during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6]. Group 1: Green Consumption Initiatives - The initiative aims to achieve the replacement of 18.3 million old cars with new ones, with nearly 60% being electric vehicles, and to replace 192 million home appliances, with 90% meeting high energy and water efficiency standards [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive consumer goods sales worth 3.92 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 494 million consumers [3]. - The plan includes the recovery of 17.67 million scrapped vehicles and the trading of 39.686 million second-hand cars, with a 45.8% annual growth rate in vehicle recovery [3]. Group 2: Green Supply Chain Development - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting the use of recyclable packaging materials and standardized pallets, which can reduce loading times by 80% and decrease damage rates by over 50%, leading to a 20% reduction in supply chain costs [4]. - The standardization rate of pallets has reached 37.8%, with an estimated saving of 250 million single-use pallets, equivalent to protecting 50 million trees and reducing carbon emissions by over 2 million tons [4]. - A notification has been issued to improve the recycling system for waste electrical appliances and furniture, with 32 pilot cities and 78 enterprises identified to enhance the recycling network [4]. Group 3: Green Business Practices - The Ministry of Commerce is fostering the development of green businesses in retail, catering, and accommodation sectors, with 1,161 green markets and 3,500 green hotels established [5]. - E-commerce platforms are collaborating with upstream and downstream businesses to create green alliances and promote low-carbon operational standards [5]. - Various events are being organized to promote green consumption habits among consumers, including exhibitions and seasonal campaigns [5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The initiative emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach involving government, businesses, and consumers to effectively promote green consumption [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance coordination and detail the implementation of measures to ensure the policies are effectively executed, aiming to integrate green and low-carbon principles into all aspects of production and lifestyle [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is promoting green consumption through policies that incentivize the replacement of old consumer goods with new, energy-efficient products, particularly in sectors like home appliances, furniture, building materials, and electric vehicles [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with the National Development and Reform Commission, is implementing a program for replacing old consumer goods to stimulate green consumption [1] - Subsidies will be provided for high-efficiency green appliances, green home products, green building materials, and new energy vehicles to further boost green consumption demand [1] Group 2: Market Projections - From 2024 to 2025, it is projected that 17.673 million scrapped vehicles will be recycled, with an average annual growth rate of 45.8% [1] - The transaction volume of second-hand vehicles is expected to reach 39.686 million units [1] - Approximately 53 million old home appliances and mobile phones will be properly dismantled, with an average annual growth rate of about 12% [1]

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on January 6 to introduce the promotion of green consumption [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's Director of Circulation Industry Development, Li Jialu, announced the identification of 32 pilot cities for the construction of recycling resource recovery systems and 78 pilot enterprises [1] - The development of models such as "Internet + Recycling" and "Two Networks Integration" is encouraged [1]

北京商报讯（记者 程靓）1月6日，国务院新闻办公室召开新闻发布会，介绍推进绿色消费有关情况。 商务部副部长盛秋平在会上表示，2024至2025年，我国实现汽车以旧换新1830万辆，其中新能源汽车占 比近60%，实现家电以旧换新1.92亿台，其中一级能效（水效）占比达90%以上。以旧换新政策带动消 费品销售额3.92万亿元，惠及消费者4.94亿人次。新能源汽车、绿色智能家电等绿色商品消费增长带动 绿色消费市场规模稳步扩大，绿色产品供给更加丰富，绿色消费模式不断创新，绿色消费环境持续优 化。 ...

1月6日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍推进绿色消费有关情况，并答记者问。商务部副部长 盛秋平表示，近年来，商务部推进以旧换新政策，提高消费的"含绿量"。 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...

人民财讯1月6日电，商务部流通业发展司司长李佳路1月6日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，下一 步，商务部将继续贯彻落实国家塑料污染治理相关部署，持续强化一次性塑料制品报告管理，加大可降 解、以竹代塑等绿色替代产品的推广力度，深化餐饮等重点领域减塑工作，健全长效治理机制，推动商 务领域塑料污染治理工作走深走实，为促进绿色消费、建设美丽中国贡献力量。 ...