本文作者：刘晨明/许向真/陈振威 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 ， 可进入周一早8:00的路演链接 市场表现：中资科技行情波澜壮阔 1. 港股核心指数领跑全球，科技核心资产重估进行时： 截止2025年3月28日，恒生指数、恒生科技分别上涨16.8%、23.2%，在全球主要权益市场中涨幅靠前。 本轮快速上涨过后，2024年以来港股科技龙头累计涨幅已经超过美股科技龙头。 2. 如何看待抬估值行情后续&预期改善的结构性： （1）ERP：已来到过去几次高点的压力位附近，市场博弈和波动加剧。（2）市盈率与分位数：今年以来市 场涨幅主要由估值贡献。（3）PB/ROE：港股市场绝对估值水平仍不高，但全球截面来看与盈利水平匹配。恒生指数预测估值抬升、但盈利预测小幅下滑；恒 生科技盈利预测进一步上修。 基本面走到哪了：港股24年报初步统计。 截止2025年3月28日，我们统计港股初步公告的披露进度约达84%： 1. 整体法下，基本面企稳得到进一步确认。 可比口径下，24年年报全部港股、港股通（按当前成分、不追溯）、仅H股上市整体法净利润同比分别为12.0%、 4.9%、33.5%。 3. 海外资金过去半年节奏为： 特朗普胜选后主动 ...

作 者丨杨坪 编 辑丨朱益民 2 0 2 5年3月，由中国资产重估叙事引发的二级市场行情大好，一幕资本市场的"双雄会"拉开序 幕。 3月11日，王传福"闪电"完成了比亚迪股份4 3 5 . 0 9亿港元（约合人民币4 0 8亿元）的H股配售 融资。 3月2 5日，小米集团创始人雷军在交出"史上最强"年报后平地起惊雷，计划以每股5 3 . 2 5港元 的价格配售8亿股股份，筹资4 2 5亿港元（约合人民币3 9 7亿元）。 两场融资均发生在两家企业市值突破万亿大关之后 ，集齐"天时" "地利"与"人和"三要素，合 计在港股市场融资8 6 0亿港元（约合8 0 5亿元人民币）。 而这背后，两位高阶资本玩家对市场脉搏的精准拿捏，堪为后来者提供完美"教科书"。 相较于传统发行新股动辄数周甚至数月的审批， 先旧后新发行股票，可以在保障控制权稳定 的同时，有效提升流程效率。因为发售的是现有股票，只涉及移交所有权，理论上隔日就能 发售。 为何"求快"？无非是为了抢占"时机"。 今年以来，全球资金因中国科技创新突破、美股估值高企、地缘风险加剧而东移，恒生指数 年内涨幅超2 5%，日均成交额逼近2 0 2 1年牛市水平。 "天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology-driven bull market is the main theme of the current revaluation of Chinese assets, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs [1][16]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and adjustment after the initial stage of the bull market, which is seen as a short-term cooling period [1][35]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated to lead the revaluation of Chinese assets, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index in 2025 and 2026 [1][35]. - Investors should focus on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals to achieve growth during the bull market [1][49]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The key variables for the macroeconomic outlook in 2025 are not extreme fluctuations but rather reform and technological innovation [2][17]. - The recovery of the real estate sector and the stabilization of rental yields in major cities indicate a potential stabilization of property prices by 2025 [19][20]. - The rise of AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency across various industries, contributing to a structural shift in the economy [21][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective and rebuild valuation frameworks in light of AI advancements, moving away from traditional static metrics [24][28]. - The focus should be on the penetration rate of AI technology, capital expenditure, and the application prospects in various industries [28][29]. - The bull market is characterized by a need to identify the most promising companies within the AI ecosystem, which may yield significant returns [46][48]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Companies in the technology sector, particularly those represented by "ATM" (Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi), are expected to benefit from the AI wave and should be prioritized for investment [3][44]. - The integration of AI into various sectors, including biomedicine, education, and finance, presents new opportunities for growth [46][47]. - The new generation of consumers, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, will drive rapid growth in emerging consumption sectors [23].

过去一段时间，港股市场这种剧烈的上下起伏已经不是第一次出现。2月底以来，虽然市场多次由短期情绪和资金涌入催化快 速上冲，但始终无法"有效突破"我们早前给出的点位。我们在2月16日与2月24日连续发布《 中国资产的重估？ 》与《 再论中 国资产的重估前景 》两篇专题报告， 测算恒指中枢23,000-24,000点，乐观情形25,000点，建议在这一区间附近观望不必追 高，如果不选择获利可以适度调仓至红利。 回过头来看，这一观点是有效的。实际上，尽管活跃的市场给人一种持续火热的感觉， 但如果投资者是选择从2月底以来加仓 龙头个股或者恒指与恒生科技的话，过去一个月大概率持平甚至是亏损的。 那么，走到这一步，中国资产的重估到哪里了？ 接下来走向如何，该如何配置？有哪些节点需要重点关注？ 一、重估到哪一步了？叙事驱动的极致"结构市"，当前估值相对合理 图表：上周MSCI中国指数下跌1.7%，电信服务与房地产领跌，而公用事业与能源逆势上涨 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 过去一周港股市场大幅波动，周初恒指一度逼近我们给出的乐观情形25,000点，随即再度大幅回撤，恒生科技周四周五连续两 ...

在港股赚到钱。 "这应该是近年最猛一家消费公司了。"老铺黄金，这家港股上市公司越来越密集地出现 在投资人的聊天之间。 一切源于其令人惊叹的上扬曲线——自去年6月登陆港交所以来，老铺黄金股价一路高 歌，猛涨超17 00%，最新市值超11 00亿港元，成为今年港股市场耀眼的大牛股。 一场造富潮悄然上演。腾讯在IPO基石轮投了38 0 0万美元占股约4%，算下来目前账面浮 盈超4 0亿港元，有望成为腾讯投资回报最高的消费项目；而那些在IPO前投进去的投资机 构更是赚到了一场h ome -r un级回报，羡煞同行。 当全球资本开始拥抱中国资产，港股率先热闹起来。目之所及，这一波赚钱效应正如火如 荼。 最猛消费股 三个月大涨800亿 故事还得从一位湖南岳阳人——徐高明说起。 1 9 8 0年代，徐高明还是一个初出茅庐的地方畜牧水产局科员，在那里工作十年后转身下 海经商。2 0 0 4年，徐高明创立金色宝藏，主要从事黄金珠宝及摆件业务，开始进军消费 级黄金产品市场。 到了2 0 09年，徐高明透过金色宝藏推出首家专注于销售古法黄金珠宝的门店，是中国首 个推广古金工艺概念的品牌。直到2 014年。徐高明决定将古法黄金业务从 ...

魏沁蕊 野村东方国际证券资产管理部FOF业务总监 cace 這里 TELL e and r 790 Tranely n "DeepSeek在全球人工智能领域脱颖而出，不仅使AI行业深受震撼，也让世界对中国科技创新能力有 了新的认识，带动了中国资产价值重估。"在今年的全国两会上，中国证监会主席吴清表示。在注册制 改革深化、科技创新突破与全球资本再平衡的多重共振下，中国资产正迎来系统性重估机遇。科技领 域不断取得突破性进展，对实体经济赋能进一步加速，新的经济增长点进一步显现，"中国资产的价值 重估"也成为了投资机构热议的焦点。 如何理解当前市场 热议的"中国资产重估"？ Q 魏沁蕊： 中国经济的转型升级是一个持续的过程，科技创新、产业升级、消费升级等将不断推动中国 经济的发展，从而为资产价值的提升提供支撑。政策层面正在持续发力，为经济的高质量发展和资产 重估创造良好的环境。同时，科技发展将继续成为重要的驱动因素，人工智能、新能源、生物医药等 新兴技术领域的快速发展将为外资提供更多的投资机会。随着中国在全球产业链和供应链中的地位不 断提升，外资持有中国资产的信心将进一步增强。 中国资本市场的制度性支撑，为海外投资提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the systemic revaluation opportunity for Chinese assets driven by technological innovation, policy support, and global capital rebalancing, particularly in the context of AI advancements and other emerging technologies [2][4]. Group 1: Market Understanding - The transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy is a continuous process, supported by technological innovation, industrial upgrades, and consumption upgrades [4]. - Policy measures are actively creating a favorable environment for high-quality economic development and asset revaluation [4]. - The rapid development of emerging technology sectors such as AI, new energy, and biomedicine is expected to provide more investment opportunities for foreign capital [4]. Group 2: Capital Market Support - The institutional support of the Chinese capital market facilitates overseas investment, with mechanisms like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect being progressively improved [4]. - The alignment of ESG disclosure standards with international norms enhances foreign investors' confidence in the sustainable development of Chinese enterprises [4]. - Innovations in derivative tools and optimization of cross-border settlement processes are reducing friction costs and enhancing investment convenience for QFII and RQFII [4]. Group 3: Global Positioning - In the context of "de-globalization," Chinese assets combine the growth potential of emerging markets with the stability of developed markets [4]. - The internationalization of the Renminbi and the localization of ESG investments are expected to increase the weight of Chinese assets in global capital allocation [4].

以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者肖望 棱镜 . 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 作者 | 肖望 编辑 ｜ 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜·腾讯小满工作室 （ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 华尔街转向。 "同样是高水平的人工智能，为什么中国股市比标普500有这么大的折价？这不合理。"3月7 日，瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊表示，"会有更多海外投资者介入，推动估值上的修 复。" 由DeepSeek引发的针对中国资产的重估潮正在资本市场上演：自蛇年春节（2月3日）以来， 汇聚了最多中国互联网科技公司的恒生科技指数一路狂飙，并创下三年以来的新高。区间涨幅 一度达31.83%。 Wind数据显示，自2月3日至3月7日，恒生科技指数的总市值增加了3.04万亿元。其中，恒生 科技指数的权重股代表（截至3月7日收盘）如阿里巴巴上涨58.55%、腾讯控股上涨 32.97%、小米集团上涨41.91%。 与此同时，美股波动加剧，今年以来，标普500成分股的市值较年内高点蒸发（截至3月11 日）超5.08万亿美元（约36.72万亿元）。3月10日，美股更是遭遇"黑色星期一"，其中特斯 拉一夜暴跌超15%，股价较高点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international long-term investors have significantly returned to the Chinese capital market, reflecting their confidence in Chinese assets and providing solid fundamental support for market recovery [2] - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [2] - The current technology sector's valuation in China still has room for improvement, suggesting that the "revaluation of Chinese assets" is not yet complete [2][4] Group 2 - Investor sentiment has shifted positively, with an increase in the proportion of investors choosing to "add positions" or "hold positions," while those opting to "reduce positions" or "liquidate" have decreased [3] - The proportion of investors fully invested or using margin financing has increased, with 38.25% of respondents indicating they are fully invested, up by 2.29 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Despite a more positive holding level, the overall profitability of investors has shown a slight decline, with a small increase in the proportion of those experiencing losses [4] Group 3 - There is a rising focus on the consumer sector, with the proportion of respondents identifying it as a potential area of growth increasing from 5.28% to 16.22% [5] - The technology sector remains a significant area of interest, although there is a notable shift towards consumer stocks as they rebound from previous stagnation [5][6] - Strategic metals have experienced a price surge, particularly in antimony, bismuth, and cobalt, indicating a strong market trend in this segment [5] Group 4 - The survey indicates a decrease in confidence in the technology sector, with the proportion of respondents favoring it dropping from 62% to 42%, while confidence in the consumer sector has risen significantly [6] - The overall performance of the consumer sector is expected to outperform that of technology stocks, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards more stable and predictable earnings [6] - The upcoming market trends will be influenced by various factors, including policy releases from the Two Sessions, earnings disclosures from listed companies, and economic data from both domestic and international sources [6]

Group 1 - The recent decline in US stock markets has led to discussions about its impact on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a prevailing view that A-shares may perform well despite US market fluctuations [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous significant declines in the US market, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have generally underperformed, indicating a strong correlation between US economic health and global equity markets [1] - The ideal scenario for investors is a situation where US stocks experience volatility while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rise, drawing parallels to historical periods where Asian markets outperformed during US market stagnation [1] Group 2 - The AI revolution is seen as a catalyst for the transformation of China's economic structure, with potential for a revaluation of Chinese assets similar to past decades [2] - The launch of the domestic DeepSeek-R1 model is expected to accelerate the progress of AI applications in China, leveraging the country's large market and user base [2] - Key sectors such as AI applications, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing are anticipated to produce influential technology giants, contributing to the revaluation of Chinese assets [2]