Report Summary 1. Core Views - China takes a solid step in extraterritorial jurisdiction, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing export controls on relevant rare earth items and technologies, and adding 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. It also implements export controls on items like superhard materials, some rare earth equipment and raw materials, some medium and heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjust the technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027. The pure - electric driving range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is adjusted from 43 kilometers to no less than 100 kilometers [2]. - The consumer market shows good growth during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year. Domestic tourism spending reaches 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increases by 4.5% year - on - year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [2]. - With the continuous advancement of environmental protection production restrictions, most steel mills' sintering machine production restriction ratio increases from 30% to 40% - 50%. Some steel mills' existing iron ore inventories may not last until the end of the production restriction on the 20th. If transportation restrictions continue, raw material supply shortages may lead to blast furnace shutdowns or reduced production loads, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission formulates the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026. The total cotton import tariff quota in 2026 is 894,000 tons, with 33% being state - trading quotas. The total grain import tariff quotas are 963,600 tons for wheat (90% state - trading quotas) and 720,000 tons for corn (60% state - trading quotas) [3]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, live pigs, Shanghai copper, and crude oil [4]. - Night - session performance: The report presents the night - session price changes and position - increasing ratios of commodity futures main contracts [4]. - Capital proportion of each commodity plate: Non - metallic building materials account for 2.61%, precious metals 31.86%, oilseeds 10.16%, soft commodities 2.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.98%, coal - coking - steel - ore 12.52%, energy 2.93%, chemicals 11.80%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.48% [5]. - Plate positions: The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6]. 3.2 Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.32 | 1.32 | 17.37 | | | SSE 50 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 12.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 19.68 | | | CSI 500 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 31.84 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.28 | 0.70 | | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.29 | - 0.38 | 33.36 | | | German DAX | 0.06 | 3.06 | 23.62 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.77 | 8.12 | 21.77 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.41 | 1.70 | 16.35 | | | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.15 | 0.19 | - 0.81 | | Fixed - Income | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.07 | 0.09 | - 0.76 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.02 | - 0.56 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI Crude Oil | - 0.92, - 1.68 | - 0.42, - 1.58 | 0.88, - 14.49 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.60 | 3.06 | 51.51 | | | LME Copper | 1.01 | 4.67 | 22.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.92 | 2.92 | 33.88 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.56 | 1.62 | - 8.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.12 | - 6.05 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, superhard materials, etc., with rare earth - related items being the focus, and the controls will take effect on November 8 [7]. - The silver price reached a new high, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue, but attention should be paid to the results of the US tariff investigation and the possible release of invisible silver inventories [8]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), a 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly, the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has divergence on resumption of navigation, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - For nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricts each other, and the nickel price may continue to fluctuate within a range, but if the contradiction on either side intensifies in the fourth quarter, the volatility of Shanghai nickel will increase [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Reading Highlights - **Silver**: The price hit a record high of $51.221, mainly due to tight overseas spot supply, potential 232 - clause tariff investigations, and the transfer of London silver inventory to New York. The silver rental rate is at a historical high, and the upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the US tariff investigation results and the release of invisible inventories [8]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: A 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 points. The probability of full resumption of navigation in December and January next year is low, and the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has opportunities after over - decline, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian nickel mine issues increase supply concerns, but global refined nickel inventory is accumulating, and the market has expectations of slowdown in implicit restocking. The short - term long - short contradictions restrict each other, and the nickel price may fluctuate within a range [10][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continued to reach new highs, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 914.32 yuan, up 7.24% [15][20]. - **Silver**: Approached the $50 mark, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 11169 yuan, up 5.54% [15][20]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise in the US dollar limited price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,750 yuan, up 4.38% [15][24]. - **Zinc**: Had a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22315 yuan, up 2.25% [15][27]. - **Lead**: Inventory increase restricted price recovery, with the Shanghai Lead main contract closing at 17115 yuan, up 1.03% [15][30]. - **Tin**: Accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Tin main contract closing at 287,090 yuan, up 4.75% [15][33]. - **Aluminum**: Fluctuated within a range, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing at 21090 yuan [15][37]. - **Alumina**: Trended weakly, with the Shanghai Alumina main contract closing at 2875 yuan [15][37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][37]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricted each other, and the price may fluctuate within a range [15][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand and cost factors restricted each other, and the steel price fluctuated [15][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: De - stocking accelerated, and it fluctuated. The 2511 contract closed at 73,340 yuan [15][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream resumed production, and a short - selling strategy at high prices was recommended [15][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news fermented again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [15][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it trended strongly and fluctuated, with the I 2601 contract closing at 790.5 yuan, up 1.28% [15][54]. - **Rebar**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Coke**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][66]. - **Coking Coal**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][67]. - **Log**: Fluctuated repeatedly [15][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to challenge the $50 mark [2][4]. - The rise in the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc is showing a slight rebound [2][12]. - The increase in lead inventories limits the price recovery [2][15]. - Tin is accelerating its upward trend [2][17]. - Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, alumina is operating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel faces a situation where smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations are in a tug - of - war, and caution is needed regarding news disturbances. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2512 was 914.32 with a daily increase of 7.24%, and the night - session closing price was 902.28 with a decrease of 1.17%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2512 was 11169 with a daily increase of 5.54%, and the night - session closing price was 11078.00 with a decrease of 1.17% [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 86,750 with a daily increase of 4.38%, and the night - session closing price was 86650 with a decrease of 0.12%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 10,777 with an increase of 0.74% [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US macro - economic data is in a vacuum, and investors are concerned about the bubble risk. Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22315 with an increase of 2.25%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2994.5 with a decrease of 1.56% [12]. - **News**: The Fed's理事巴尔 emphasized inflation risks and said that interest - rate cuts should be cautious [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17115 with an increase of 1.03%, and the LME lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2004.5 with a decrease of 0.02%. The SHFE lead futures inventory increased by 500 tons to 30068 tons [15]. - **News**: The US macro - economic data is in a vacuum, and investors are concerned about the bubble risk [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 287,090 with an increase of 4.75%, and the night - session closing price was 287,400 with an increase of 0.82%. The LME tin 3M electronic - disk closing price was 36,820 with an increase of 1.57% [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple macro - economic and industry events were reported, such as China's export controls and the US government shutdown [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 21090, and the closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2875. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20615 [22]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the September CPI data during the government shutdown [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy all have a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 124,480, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,860 [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [31].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements regarding export controls on superhard materials, certain rare earth equipment, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials aim to protect national security interests and maintain the balance of the domestic industrial chain [1][2]. Export Control Measures - The export control measures will take effect from November 8, and they require approval for exports rather than an outright ban, which is intended to prevent low-priced exports that could harm domestic interests [2]. - The regulation on artificial graphite anode materials is expected to increase domestic lithium battery sales, as foreign companies will face difficulties in sourcing these materials [2]. Impact on Domestic Industries - The export controls are anticipated to enhance the interests of domestic companies, leading to increased product value and potential price hikes [2]. - The recent surge in gold prices, which have exceeded $4,000, is seen as a protective measure for prices amid rising international metal prices [2][4]. Market Trends - The gold price increase is attributed to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a scarcity of investment options, driving funds towards gold and precious metals [4]. - The recent rise in the US dollar index indicates a return of funds to the dollar, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [4]. Strategic Resources - Rare earth elements and lithium batteries are highlighted as critical resources for the country, serving as strategic tools for countermeasures in international trade [5].

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively declined, with Oracle rising over 3% and the Chinese concept index falling by 2.03% [1] - New York gold futures dropped over 1.9%, while WTI crude oil for November fell by 1.66% [1] - Silver prices surged over 3%, reaching a historical high with a year-to-date increase of 75% [1] - Japanese stocks closed at a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 21.77% [1] - Taiwan stocks also reached a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 18.52% [1] Company Developments - Intel announced key details of its first 18A process PC chip, set to launch in January next year [1] - Ganfeng Lithium reported a complete integrated layout for solid-state batteries and commercial capabilities [1] - Changan Automobile confirmed that Avita Technology has fully paid for the purchase of a 10% stake in Huawei, totaling 11.5 billion yuan [1] Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on certain rare earth equipment and raw materials [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has listed foreign entities, including anti-drone technology companies, as unreliable entities [1] - A pilot program for fee payment by disease type in traditional Chinese medicine will be conducted in about 15 provinces or cities [1] Financial Performance - Guangdong Mingzhu expects a net profit increase of 858.45% to 1071.44% year-on-year for the first three quarters [2] - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit growth of 649.71% to 669.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters [2]

公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 10月9日，商务部、海关总署发布对部分中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制的决定、对部分稀土设备和原 辅料相关物项实施出口管制的决定、对锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制的决定、对超 硬材料相关物项实施出口管制的决定。 与2023年的石墨物项临时出口管制措施的公告相比，本次新规明确将人造石墨负极材料及其专用生产设 备纳入管制范围。 据国盛证券研报显示，产量方面，2025年上半年中国石墨负极材料产量达110.7万吨，同比增长36%。 2024年全球石墨负极产量216.7万吨，同比增长23%，其中中国占比进一步提升至98.5%。销量方面，全 球石墨负极销量208.7万吨，其中中国占比达98.4%。 另外，2025年上半年，中国人造石墨负极产量同比增长37%，中国人造石墨负极产量达101万吨，同比 增长37%，占石墨负极总产量的91.2%。 民生证券表示，2024年，随着负极专用焦、连续石墨化等先进技术的应用，人造石墨生产成本得到进一 步控制，价格也随之有所下行，同时受限于天然石墨出口管制，部分海外客户也逐步将原料使用向人造 石墨转移，人造石墨市场占比继续提升。 中科电气：公司 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's officials support further interest rate cuts, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [9] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to be released during the government shutdown [12] - The U.S. dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing at 99.39, a 0.56% increase [2][6] Group 2: Commodity Market - Spot gold prices fell by 1.62%, closing at $3976.19 per ounce, dropping over $100 from historical highs [2][6] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.29%, closing at $61.17 per barrel, while Brent crude oil fell by 1.2%, closing at $65.01 per barrel [2][6] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.52%, S&P 500 down 0.28%, and Nasdaq down 0.08% [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.29%, while the A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32% [4][5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance will issue the fifth phase of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on October 15, with a scale of 11 billion [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year [2] - The National Taxation Administration reported a 4.5% year-on-year increase in average daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries during the holiday [2] - The National Film Administration announced that the box office for the National Day holiday period was 1.835 billion, with 50.07 million viewers [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that payment transactions processed by UnionPay and NetUnion during the holiday reached 41.552 billion, an increase of 9.523 billion transactions compared to last year [2] - The National Development Bank issued 13.5 billion in three-year green financial bonds with an interest rate of 1.72%, attracting significant interest from various investors [2] Group 2 - Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that Jin Jing New Energy (01783) will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list starting October 9 due to its parallel trading of split shares [3] - The China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation announced a suspension of external services on October 11 due to technical system maintenance [3] - The China Futures Association revised the "Futures Brokerage Contract Guidelines" applicable to foreign brokerage firms, effective immediately [3] - Hang Seng Bank and HSBC announced plans to privatize Hang Seng Bank at a price of 155 HKD per share, potentially leading to its delisting [3] - Jiangsu Credit Enhancement Co., Ltd. was officially established with a registered capital of 5 billion, marking the first provincial credit enhancement institution in the Yangtze River Delta [3] Group 3 - China Huaneng Group and Sinochem Holdings held a flag-raising ceremony in Xiong'an New Area, marking their official relocation [4] - A 5.4 magnitude earthquake occurred in Xinlong County, Sichuan, with a depth of 10 kilometers [4] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a short-term funding bill, leading to a continued government shutdown [4] - North Korea's ruling party is set to celebrate its 80th anniversary on October 10, with significant developments expected in various sectors [4] - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has officially come into effect, as reported by Egyptian media [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced new export control measures on five categories of materials, including superhard materials, rare earth equipment, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials, effective from November 8, 2023, to enhance national security and comply with international obligations [1]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The export control measures are based on the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and are aimed at items with significant dual-use attributes [1]. - The announcement has been communicated to relevant countries and regions prior to implementation [1]. Group 2: National Security and International Compliance - The measures are designed to better protect national security and interests while fulfilling international non-proliferation obligations [1]. - The Chinese government emphasizes that these measures are not targeted at any specific country or region and will allow for the approval of legitimate export applications after review [1]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Stability - China expresses willingness to collaborate with other countries to maintain the stability and smooth operation of global supply chains [1]. - The government is open to dialogue and communication regarding export control policies and practices through bilateral mechanisms to facilitate compliant trade [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced new export controls on rare earth-related items and technologies to safeguard national security and interests, aligning with international practices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce issued two announcements on October 9, focusing on export controls for certain rare earth-related items and technologies, which will take effect on November 8 [1][3]. - The controlled items include superhard materials, rare earth equipment, raw materials, and lithium battery components, among others [1][3]. Group 2: Rationale for Export Controls - The export controls are justified by the dual-use nature of rare earth items, which can be utilized in both civilian and military applications, posing potential risks to national security [2][4]. - Previous incidents of foreign organizations illegally obtaining Chinese rare earth technologies for military purposes have prompted these measures to prevent further risks [3][4]. Group 3: Compliance and Exemptions - The Ministry has stated that the scope of controlled items is limited, and various licensing facilitation measures will be implemented for compliant exports [2][4]. - Exports intended for humanitarian purposes, such as emergency medical aid or disaster relief, will be exempt from licensing requirements [2][3].