Group 1 - Japanese government bond futures have declined in the short term [1] - The Japanese yen has appreciated against the US dollar [1] - Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is considering raising its inflation expectations [1]

智通财经7月14日电，日元兑美元走高，据称日本央行将考虑上调通胀预期。 ...

市场消息：日本央行料将考虑上调通胀预期。 ...

日本央行料将考虑上调通胀预期。（彭博） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil led to a recovery in gold prices and a significant increase in silver prices, with Shanghai silver hitting a new record high. The tariff concerns resurfaced, but the gold price fluctuations were limited. The increase in silver price was driven by gold price recovery and recent capital inflows, and the upward trend of silver price remained unchanged [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The gold price sentiment was high and it was still prone to rise rather than fall. The silver price mainly followed the gold price, and the tariff concerns had a stronger impact on the silver price, which was prone to an enlarged increase [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the European three major stock indexes fell across the board. The US bond yields rose across the board, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 6.15 basis points to 4.409%. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 97.59, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1783. COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to $3370.30 per ounce. The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index performance. COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The market speculated that Trump planned to sanction Russian crude oil, and the tariff concerns resurfaced, causing the gold price to recover. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 1.18 yuan/gram. Trump's change in attitude towards Russia drove up the gold price due to the hedging demand, but the reaction was limited [4]. - **Silver**: The market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil, combined with recent capital inflows, led to a significant increase in the silver price. Shanghai silver continued to hit a new record high, and the ratio of silver to gold continued to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 330 yuan/kilogram. The tariff fluctuations resurfaced, and the capital support remained, so the upward trend of the silver price remained unchanged [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's May core machinery orders [15] - 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025 [16] - 15:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025 [16] - 20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 190,529, a decrease of 1,296 or - 0.68% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 60,067, a decrease of 2,596 or - 4.14%; the net position was 130,462, an increase of 1,300 or 1.01% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 451,592, an increase of 60,922 or 15.59% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 345,222, an increase of 31,598 or 10.08%; the net position was 106,370, an increase of 29,324 or 38.06% [6][33].

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：汪浩、梁中华 ·概 要 · 特朗普关税博弈再起，扰动全球资产价格，本周全球大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全球股市分化，新兴市场优于发达市场。美国经济依然具有韧性，特朗普 不断督促鲍威尔降息，但是新一轮关税对通胀的压力下，美联储降息仍有掣肘，同时关税冲击经济，欧央行保留进一步降息稳经济的选项，日本央行加息 可能延迟至2026年。 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.7.4-2025.7.11），全球大类资产价格中，大宗商品价格基本都上涨，全球股市分化。上证综指上涨1.09%，恒生指数上涨 0.93%，新兴市场股票指数上涨0.45%，发达市场股票指数下跌0.13%，标普500下跌0.31%，日经225下跌0.61%。 大宗商品价格基本都上涨，其中， COMEX铜上涨10.30%，IPE布油期货上涨3.09%，南华商品指数上涨1.01%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨0.87%，伦敦金现上涨0.53%。债市方面，国内10Y国 债期货价格下跌0.25%，中债总全价指数下跌0.19%，10年期美债收益率较前一周上升8BP至4.43%，10年期美债期货持平前一周。外汇市场方面，美元指 数较前一周 ...

（一）6 月海外市场主线？美国"金发女郎"交易再起，伊以、关税风波阶段性扰动 宏 观 研 究 宏观"月月谈"系列之八 2025 年 07 月 13 日 关税效应进入"数据验证期" —— 7 月宏观月报 6 月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持续提振。随着 关税效应的逐步显现，滞胀预期如何验证、市场交易的主线如何切换？本文分析，供参考。 一、宏观月报：关税效应进入"数据验证期" 国内方面，反内卷或仍是核心聚焦；政策或通过供需端总量调控、结合产业结构转型升级。1） 总量层面，破解"内卷"困境重点或在缓解供需矛盾。2）结构方面，或主要通过政策引导、 行业自律等推动供给创新升级。经济数据，聚焦服务业景气的接力与出口数据的验证。 6 月以来，"金发女郎"交易再度成为海外市场的主线。原因有三方面：1）《美丽大法案》推 进顺利、并在 7 月 4 日成功落地，打消了市场前期对"法案推进受阻"、"X-date 临近"等担 忧；2）5 月通胀数据低于预期，降息空间边际打开。3）经济温和走弱，但就业数据韧性十足。 伊以冲突一度引发市场的阶段性担忧，关税风暴虽再度来袭、但市场反应相对平淡。1）伊以 冲 ...

Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized that two rate cuts this year remain the most likely choice for the Fed, as the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices may be milder than expected [1][3] - Daly noted that many companies are actively sharing the burden of tariff costs through supply chain negotiations rather than passing the costs directly to consumers, which could prevent significant inflation spikes [3] - The internal consensus at the Fed is not aligned, with most officials worried about persistent inflation pressures from tariffs, while a minority believes it is a one-time price disturbance [3][5] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard expressed caution, stating that the effects of tariffs are still uncertain and may take time to permeate the economy, with key data from June to September being critical for observation [5] - Market anxiety is rising due to policy ambiguity, with traders indicating that clarity on the final scope of tariffs before their implementation on August 1 is unlikely, making a July rate cut nearly impossible [5][6] - The Fed's rate strategy is becoming more complex as the observation period highlighted by Bullard coincides with the new tariff list being considered by Trump [6]

Group 1 - Current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a rebound in the US dollar, with gold trading around $3327.68 per ounce [1] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports from Brazil has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, providing support for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [1][3] - Unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 227,000 has pushed the dollar index to a two-week high of 97.92, which has suppressed gold demand priced in dollars [1] Group 2 - The implementation of tariffs may increase commodity prices, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures, which presents both opportunities and challenges for gold [3] - Rising inflation expectations could enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, but the strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields may offset this benefit [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy complicates the inflation outlook, and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may continue to limit gold's upward potential [4] Group 3 - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support, while the strong dollar and rising Treasury yields restrict price increases [4] - Short-term gold prices are likely to remain within the current range unless there is a significant escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [4] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. has led to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which in turn has pressured gold prices [2][3] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, marking the lowest level in two months and the fourth consecutive week of decline [2] - The rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million is the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting difficulties for unemployed Americans in finding jobs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high of 97.92, which negatively impacts gold prices as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for holders of other currencies [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.352%, while the 30-year yield fell to 4.861%, influenced by strong employment data and inflation expectations [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on July 15, which will be crucial for assessing inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy direction [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a narrow trading range, with short-term moving averages flattening, suggesting a likely continuation of this trend [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,345 and $3,345, while support is noted at $3,317 [4]