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铝类市场周报:需求淡季供给持稳,铝类或将有所承压-20250613
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 10:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai aluminum market has shown a pattern of stable supply and slightly shrinking demand. The aluminum price is supported by low inventory levels and an improving aluminum - water ratio but is limited by seasonal off - peak demand. The alumina market is in a stage of loose supply and stable demand [6]. - It is recommended to lightly short - sell the Shanghai aluminum main contract on rallies and trade the alumina main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering that the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.84% to 20,440 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 1.69% to 2,852 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: In May 2025, the US PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, indicating mild producer price increases [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce stated its stance on opposing unilateral tariff - imposing measures and urged the US to abide by WTO rules to promote stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bauxite prices were stable, and port inventories declined slightly. Alumina supply was loose with slightly accumulated inventory, and demand was stable. Electrolytic aluminum supply was stable, and demand was affected by the off - season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from June 6. The LME aluminum closing price on June 12 was 2,519.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.8% from June 6. The electrolytic aluminum Shanghai - LME ratio was 8.21, up 0.36 from June 6 [10][11]. - **Position Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum position was 603,083 lots, an increase of 15.25% from June 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 12,959 lots [14]. - **Price Spread Change**: As of June 13, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,375 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan/ton from June 6. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,570 yuan/ton, down 1,290 yuan/ton from June 6 [18]. - **Spot Price**: As of June 13, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from June 6. The spot discount was 230 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous week [23]. - **Inventory Change**: As of June 12, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.8%, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% as of June 13, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.78% as of June 12. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3.35% as of June 13, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02% as of June 12 [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Bauxite**: In April 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.684 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.67% and a year - on - year increase of 45.44%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 67.7011 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.2% [30]. - **Alumina**: As of June 13, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,978 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from June 6. In April 2025, the alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the import was 10,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 90.12%, and the export was 260,000 tons [33][36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In April 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 250,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 833,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32%. The output in April was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [41][44]. - **Aluminum Products**: In April 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The import was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the export was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [47]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In April 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The import was 86,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.66%, and the export was 16,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% [50]. - **Real Estate**: In April 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.86, down 0.09 from the previous month and up 2.06 from the same period last year. From January to April 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 24.13% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 3.37% year - on - year [53]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to April 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 10.85% year - on - year. In April 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,589,610 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.78%, and the output was 2,618,769 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% [56]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory and pressured operation of the aluminum price in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [59].
农产品日报(2025 年6 月13日)-20250613
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 05:08
农产品日报(2025 年 6 月 13 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周四,玉米近月合约减仓调整,期价以小阴线收盘,在周初连续两日快速拉升之 后,期价在前高位置承压,短期呈现调整表现。东北玉米现货报价仍以上涨为主, 虽成交偏淡,但并不影响贸易商心态。拍卖玉米成交价格也较高,对市场也有一 | | | | 定的支撑。华北地区玉米价格继续维持偏强运行。山东深加工早间玉米到货车辆 | | | | 有所增加,但依然维持低位,山东深加工玉米收购价格继续上涨 10-20 元/吨。 | | | | 河南地区本粮源出货,部分山西粮源流入,市场整体供应尚可,价格维持稳定。 | | | | 销区市场玉米价格继续大范围上涨 10-30 元/吨。期货表现继续偏强,产区贸易 | 震荡 | | | 商挺价心态较浓,报价继续上调。下游饲料企业采购一般,小麦替代优势仍较大, | | | | 玉米多刚需采购。技术上,玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场,期价快速拉升,现 | | | | 货强势对期货的提振体现出来,近月率先领涨,近远月价差拉大。其后,远月跟 | | | | 随 ...
FICC日报:市场情绪偏谨慎,指数震荡-20250613
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The US inflation data met expectations, and the employment market remained resilient. Market expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year have resurfaced, causing the US dollar index to fall below 98, and the three major US stock indexes to close higher. The domestic market has rebounded in the short term, but market risk appetite has not significantly improved, and market activity has not notably increased. It is expected that the subsequent market will maintain a pattern of sector rotation and upward movement [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - US PPI was in line with expectations. Domestically, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce made statements regarding Sino-US economic and trade consultations. Overseas, the US May PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year-on-year. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached 248,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024 [1] - A-share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3402.66 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%. Sector indexes showed mixed performance, with non-ferrous metals, media, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology industries leading the gains, while household appliances, coal, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.24% to 42,967.62 points [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded. Trading volume decreased, and the IM position increased [1] Strategy - Short-term domestic market rebounds, but market risk preference and activity have not significantly improved. It is expected that the subsequent market will maintain a pattern of sector rotation and upward movement [2] Macro Economic Charts - No specific content provided, but includes charts such as the US dollar index and A-share trends, US Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [4][5] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on June 12, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [11] - Charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [11] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts. The trading volume of all index futures decreased on the day, and the IM open interest increased [15] - Charts show the open interest and open interest ratio of various stock index futures contracts, as well as the net open interest of foreign investors in IC and IM contracts [16][19][21][23][33] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures, indicating that the basis of all stock index futures has rebounded [39] - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [43]
每日债市速递 | 国债期货收盘多数下跌
Wind万得· 2025-06-12 22:27
Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 12, with a total bid amount of 119.3 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 119.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 126.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan [1][2]. Funding Conditions - The overnight pledged repo rate for deposit-taking institutions slightly increased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose by more than 1 basis point [3]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [7]. Government Bond Futures - Most government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell by 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively [11]. Key Economic News - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism achieved a principle consensus on measures to implement the important consensus reached during the June 5 call between the two heads of state. Both sides are expected to enhance cooperation and reduce misunderstandings [12]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau jointly issued measures to support financial integration development in Fujian, promoting high-level cross-border trade openness and capital item cross-border investment facilitation [12]. Bond Market Developments - Huaxia Bank successfully issued the largest 5-year commercial bank technology innovation bond in the market. Additionally, the first batch of private venture capital institution technology innovation bonds was issued in Beijing, and Chongqing Three Gorges Bank issued 3.5 billion yuan of perpetual capital bonds at a coupon rate of 2.69% [16].
Wind风控日报 | 美国上周首次申领失业救济人数高于预期
Wind万得· 2025-06-12 22:27
// 今日关注 // // 宏观预警 // 1、商务部介绍中美经贸磋商机制首次会议情况 商务部召开例行新闻发布会,有记者就中美经贸磋商机制首次会议情况进行提问。商务部新闻发言人何 亚东表示,当地时间6月9日至10日,中美经贸团队在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方就 落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致,就解决双方彼 此经贸关切取得新进展。下一步,双方将进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,继续保持沟通对话,不 断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作,共同推动中美经贸关系行稳致远。 2、商务部新闻发言人:中国已依法批准一定数量的稀土相关物项出口许可合规申请 商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示,中国作为负责任大国,充分考虑各国在民用领域的合理需求与关切,依 法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查,已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请,并将持续加强合规 申请的审批工作。 // 中国债券预警 // 1、中泰证券:福建福晟新增股权冻结,涉及金额1.5亿元 中泰证券发布临时受托管理事务报告,披露福建福晟集团有限公司及其旗下公司新增股权冻结和失信被 执行情况。其中,福建福晟被冻结股权1.5亿元, ...
为世界经济复苏提供宝贵确定性
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-12 21:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent China-U.S. economic and trade consultation in London marks a significant step towards stabilizing bilateral relations and enhancing global economic recovery [1][2][3] - The meeting was guided by the strategic consensus of the two leaders, establishing a predictable and rule-based dialogue platform for addressing complex economic issues [1][2] - The constructive attitude of China in promoting consultations and the recognition of mutual benefits in the economic relationship are emphasized, highlighting the importance of cooperation over conflict [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting in London has injected optimism into international markets, showcasing a pragmatic approach and initial results that should be cherished by both parties [3] - The essence of the China-U.S. economic relationship is mutual benefit, with significant American investment in China, totaling over $1.2 trillion across various sectors, indicating a strong interdependence [2] - The expectation is set for both sides to translate the leaders' consensus into concrete actions, moving towards a more mature phase of economic relations that transcends political interference [3]
“既然达成共识 双方都应遵守”
Bei Jing Qing Nian Bao· 2025-06-12 17:58
昨天,外交部发言人、商务部新闻发言人分别就中美经贸磋商机制首次会议答记者问。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东在昨日举行的商务部例行新闻发布会上说,当地时间6月9日至10日,中美经贸 团队在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致,就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 "下一步,双方将进一步发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,继续保持沟通对话,不断增进共识、减少误 解、加强合作,共同推动中美经贸关系行稳致远。"何亚东说。 在当天的外交部例行记者会上,针对美国总统特朗普日前在社交媒体发表的关于中美经贸磋商机制首次 会议的言论,外交部发言人林剑强调,本次会议是在两国元首的战略指引下举行的,双方就落实两国元 首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致,就解决双方彼此经贸关切 取得新进展。中方一向言必行、行必果。既然达成了共识,双方都应遵守。希望美方同中方一道落实两 国元首通话达成的重要共识,发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用,通过沟通对话增进共识、减少误解、加强合 作。 在回答中美关系相关提问时,林剑表示,中方一向本着相互尊重、和平共处 ...
商务部再次回应 稀土相关物项出口管制问题
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-12 17:50
近期,稀土相关物项的出口管制政策受到多方关注。商务部6月7日消息显示,商务部部长王文涛6月3日 在与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇会谈时进一步澄清了中国出口管制政策,再次强调对稀 土等物项实施出口管制是国际通行做法,同时,中方高度重视欧方关切,愿对符合条件的申请建立绿色 通道,加快审批,并指示工作层就此保持及时沟通。 商务部新闻发言人6月7日在答记者问时也表示,随着机器人、新能源汽车等行业发展,各国对中重稀土 在民用领域的需求量正持续增长。同时明确表示中国已依法批准一定数量的合规申请,并将持续加强合 规申请的审批工作。商务部新闻发言人强调,中方愿就此进一步加强与相关国家的出口管制沟通对话, 促进便利合规贸易。 6月12日,针对当前颇受关注的稀土相关物项出口管制相关问题,商务部新闻发言人何亚东在例行新闻 发布会上再次回应表示,中国作为负责任的大国,充分考虑各国在民用领域的合理需求与关切,依法依 规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查,已依法批准一定数量的合规申请,并将持续加强合规申请的 审批工作。 今年4月4日,商务部会同海关总署发布关于对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实 施出口管制措施 ...
中美在伦敦谈了16个小时
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-06-12 15:24
Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London on June 9-10, involving key representatives from both sides, including China's Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen [1][4] - The meeting aimed to implement the consensus reached during the phone call between the two countries' leaders on June 5, and is seen as a significant step towards stabilizing China-U.S. economic relations and contributing to global economic recovery [1][4] - He Lifeng emphasized that the essence of China-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit, stating that there are no winners in a trade war and that both sides should resolve differences through equal dialogue and cooperation [1][4] Group 2 - Despite the positive dialogue, there are ongoing challenges, including new discriminatory measures imposed by the U.S. against China, such as restrictions on AI chip exports and the halting of sales of chip design software [2][5] - The U.S. government has been reluctant to engage in serious discussions regarding export controls, focusing on unilateral concessions from China while neglecting its own obligations [5][6] - The complexity of the economic relationship is underscored by the presence of structural issues that cannot be resolved in just a few meetings, and external factors such as Taiwan and South China Sea issues may further complicate negotiations [6][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has indicated a willingness to explore the possibility of easing restrictions on certain exports to China, including semiconductor manufacturing software and components for aircraft engines [5][6] - The ongoing trade tensions and high tariffs could lead to significant declines in trade, potentially sacrificing hundreds of billions in exports and tens of thousands of jobs in the U.S., which could destabilize the American economy [6][7] - Both sides are encouraged to utilize the established consultation mechanism to find mutually beneficial solutions through pragmatic cooperation [7]
商务部回应中美经贸磋商进展
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the progress in the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, with both sides reaching a principled consensus on measures to implement the important consensus from the June 5 call between the two heads of state [1] - The Chinese government is committed to responsibly managing rare earth exports, ensuring compliance with legal regulations while considering the reasonable needs of other countries in the civilian sector [1] - The external trade situation in China is characterized by resilience and vitality, with various supportive policies for foreign trade enterprises showing effectiveness [1] Group 2 - Three characteristics of the external trade situation were summarized: first, a more diversified "friend circle," with imports and exports to Belt and Road countries growing by 4.2%, ASEAN by 9.1%, and Africa by 12.4% in the first five months [2] - The second characteristic is the accelerated gathering of "new momentum," with high-tech and high-value-added products showing increased competitiveness; for instance, exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports, with integrated circuit exports rising by 18.9% [2] - The third characteristic is the vitality of foreign trade entities, with private enterprises' imports and exports growing by 7%, making up 57.1% of total imports and exports, and the number of foreign-funded enterprises with import and export performance increasing to 73,000 [2]