Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump is expected to have significant implications for the U.S. economy, including potential increases in national debt and impacts on healthcare coverage for millions of Americans [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The tax and spending bill aims to provide policy certainty, reduce tax burdens for the middle class, incentivize industries, and adjust federal fiscal structures [3]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034 and result in 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the bill contradicts its recommendations for mid-term fiscal deficit reduction, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - There is significant divergence in market outlooks regarding the U.S. dollar and stock market performance following the bill's implementation [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a 40% chance of U.S. economic recession in the second half of the year due to trade policy impacts [4]. - Morgan Chase remains optimistic about U.S. stock resilience, citing consumer and economic fundamentals, while also predicting a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to 6000-6200 points [8]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Changes - The bill raises the national debt ceiling by $5 trillion, which may lead to increased fiscal pressure [15]. - The legislation includes significant cuts to clean energy subsidies and expands oil and gas exploration on federal lands, indicating a shift in energy policy [16][18]. - Various financial institutions have differing views on the bill's impact, with some seeing it as beneficial for economic growth while others express concerns about rising fiscal deficits and potential downward pressure on the dollar [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. House of Representatives, highlighting its implications for tax cuts and social welfare programs, particularly focusing on the increased federal deficit and the impact on low-income populations [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed with a narrow margin of 219 votes in favor and 213 against, and it is expected to undergo final voting soon [1]. - The Senate version of the bill includes higher spending and cuts to social welfare programs compared to the House's initial version, with significant changes to Medicaid and SNAP [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The Senate's revised bill raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, surpassing the House's proposed increase of $4 trillion [1]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the tax cuts in the bill will add approximately $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, necessitating additional borrowing and resulting in $690 billion in extra interest payments [3][4]. Group 3: Social Impact - The bill's cuts to Medicaid are projected to result in nearly 12 million low-income individuals losing their health insurance over the next ten years [1]. - The SNAP program will face additional work hour requirements, potentially jeopardizing food security for low-income families [2].

当地时间7月4日美国独立日当天，总统特朗普将签署备受争议的"大而美"税收与支出法案，标志着其任内最重大的经济政策胜利。该法案以微 弱优势通过国会两院表决，核心条款包括延长企业和个人减税措施、削减社会福利支出并提高债务上限。尽管法案被批评加剧贫富分化和财政 赤字，但市场对短期经济刺激的预期推动美股高开，美元指数升至97附近，而黄金价格则因美债收益率攀升和美元走强承压，现货黄金在3330 美元/盎司附近震荡。 一、法案核心内容与通过历程 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年重返白宫后推动的标志性立法，其核心目标是通过减税和财政支出调整刺激经济。法案主要内容包括： 无限期延长企业税减免：将企业所得税最高税率维持在21%，并取消替代性最低税，预计未来十年为企业节省4.5万亿美元。 个人税调整：提高遗产税和赠予税免税额，加班费和小费收入免税，但医疗补助和食物援助计划（SNAP）的资格要求被收紧，预计削减近1.5 万亿美元社会福利支出。 债务扩张：联邦债务上限提高5万亿美元，未来十年赤字预计增加3.3万亿美元，美国国债规模将突破40万亿美元。 参议院于7月1日以51:50的微弱优势通过，副总统万斯投下关键一票；众议院于3日以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax and spending bill passed by Congress is expected to exacerbate long-term debt issues in the U.S., despite temporarily alleviating short-term default risks [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and authorizes increased spending on border security and military, while significantly cutting Medicare and Medicaid [2]. - The borrowing limit for the U.S. government has been raised by $5 trillion, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, resulting in 10.9 million people losing federal health insurance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors are reportedly selling U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about declining demand and increasing borrowing costs [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded due to investor worries about fiscal health, indicating a potential long-term rise in interest rates [4]. - The market's reaction to the bill has been relatively muted, as the expansion of the deficit has already been priced in since Trump's return to office [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The bill is expected to contribute 0.5% to economic growth next year, but concerns remain that the debt burden may offset the intended economic stimulus [3]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards economic data and corporate earnings, with the debt issue becoming a secondary concern [5].

Group 1: Tax Reform Overview - The tax reform primarily extends existing tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, with a limited incremental scale of approximately $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, while new tax relief measures amount to only $0.7 trillion[3] - The tax reform focuses on individual tax cuts, with an estimated reduction in tax revenue of about $4.2 trillion for individual taxes compared to $1.1 trillion for corporate taxes over the same period[4] - The U.S. government deficit is projected to increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade due to the tax reform, despite potential increases in tariff revenues[5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tax reform is expected to partially offset the economic pressure from tariffs, potentially alleviating recession expectations in the U.S. economy[2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the tax reform could increase U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points[14] - The distributional effects of the tax reform indicate that the bottom 10% of low-income households may see a decrease in disposable income by about 2% by 2027, while the top 10% may benefit from an increase[15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, hitting the lowest level since Q4 2024. The Composite PMI Output Index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 in June. From January to May, China's total service imports and exports were 3.25436 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, of which exports were 1.40337 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.1%; imports were 1.85099 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. Overseas, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill promoted by President Trump. The bill will raise the U.S. federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that this may increase the government's budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes oscillated and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to close at 3461.15 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%. In terms of industries, most sector indexes rose. The electronics, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and communication industries led the gains, while the coal, transportation, and steel industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets continued to decline to 1.3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the number of non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The employment numbers in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, compared with an expected increase to 4.3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 233,000, the lowest in six weeks. After the data was released, the market abandoned its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September declined. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher across the board, with the Nasdaq rising 1.02% to close at 20601.10 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis trends of stock index futures were divergent, and the discounts of IC and IM deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of IC and IM rebounded [2] Strategy - The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The upcoming "Great Beauty" bill in the U.S. will further push up the fiscal deficit, facing the risk of liquidity flooding. The domestic market rotation continues, and the stock index rebounded on low volume on the day, and it is expected to oscillate and then repair [3] Macro Economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A-share trends, the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the U.S. Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][11][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 3, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.90%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.62%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% [13] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [6][14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF was 73,590, an increase of 2,786; the trading volume of IH was 34,173, a decrease of 3,073; the trading volume of IC was 64,956, a decrease of 523. The open interest of IF was 238,967, a decrease of 481; the open interest of IH was 80,640, a decrease of 1,877; the open interest of IC was 220,451, an increase of 1,566 [15] - Charts show the open interest and open interest ratio of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the net open interest of foreign capital in these contracts [6][18][20] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [42][43] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spread values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods [49][50]

Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act," which is expected to be signed by President Trump before Independence Day, aiming to extend non-permanent tax cuts from his first term [1] - The act is projected to increase the deficit by over $2 trillion over the next decade, with the 2024 deficit expected to reach 6.4% of GDP, the highest level during peacetime and non-recession periods [1] - Concerns about the lack of a plan to address the deficit may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve [1] Group 2 - The new fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide timely support to the slowing U.S. economy, boosting consumer spending and business confidence [2] - Despite the support from the act, economic growth is still anticipated to remain below trend due to the impact of tariffs [2] - Inflation risks are skewed to the upside due to factors such as a weaker dollar, increased actual tariff rates, and potential energy price hikes from geopolitical conflicts [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold and silver prices declined due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June, which cooled the expectation of an early Fed rate cut. The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, and the US dollar is weak. The Fed is maintaining a wait - and - see stance, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Caution is needed regarding the uncertainty of Trump's policies as the July tariff suspension deadline approaches [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts, the prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 decreased, with respective changes of - 5.92, - 5.80, - 28.00, - 27.00 and percentage changes of - 0.76%, - 0.74%, - 0.31%, - 0.30%. For example,沪金2508 is now at 773.00 compared to the previous close of 778.92 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts vary. For instance, the open interest of沪金2508 is 98320 and its trading volume is 53873 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, London Gold (in USD/oz), Shanghai Silver T + D, and London Silver (in USD/oz) have different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 5.48 with a change rate of 0.71%, while London Gold decreased by 6.09 with a change rate of - 0.79% [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. The上期所白银库存 increased by 2133.00 kg, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 262,617.32 and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 902370 [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF and Speculator Positions**: The positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators in gold and silver have changed. For example, the spdr gold ETF position increased by 1.00 ton, and the CFTC speculator net position in gold decreased by 1451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy and Data**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnam, not in addition to the existing 10%. US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the initial jobless claims reached a six - week low. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is focusing on the next round of precious metal trends, with expectations that both gold and silver prices will continue to rise due to structural economic risks and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,300 per ounce, while silver is fluctuating above $36, indicating potential for further gains [1] - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott highlights increased attention on silver due to its recovering industrial demand and a declining gold-silver ratio, suggesting silver has room for a rebound [3] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 in April to below 92, indicating silver's potential for price recovery [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a fundamental macro backdrop supporting gold and silver prices, with federal debt surpassing $37 trillion and a new budget proposal expected to add $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade [4] - Concerns over the long-term stability of the dollar are rising as the U.S. government continues to run large deficits relative to GDP, prompting a shift of capital from equities to hard assets like gold and silver [4] - Key drivers for rising gold prices include dollar depreciation, rising inflation expectations, and global liquidity excess [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the divergence between wage growth and inflation trends has led to a reassessment of "stagflation" risks [5] - Gold is viewed as a natural hedge against inflation, with its price support becoming more solid amid ongoing inflation expectations [5] - Silver, with over 60% of its demand coming from industrial sectors, is expected to benefit from the recovery in industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on Industrial Metals - The recent "Big and Beautiful" legislation in the U.S. significantly increases fiscal support for clean energy, manufacturing, and semiconductors, which will enhance demand for industrial metals like silver, copper, and platinum [6] - Silver's critical role in the photovoltaic industry is gaining market attention due to this legislative push [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize above $3,300 per ounce while silver could experience a rebound, with gold maintaining its strategic position in investment portfolios and silver serving as a tactical investment tool [8] - Key variables to monitor include Federal Reserve policy direction, U.S. inflation and employment data, global fiscal conditions, geopolitical risks, and changes in consumption and industrial cycles [8] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - The market is entering a slow bull phase driven by structural capital flows, with gold being the preferred choice due to its reserve asset attributes, while silver's dual financial and industrial characteristics present greater elasticity [9] - In the context of rising fiscal deficits, inflation risks, and complex economic data trends, both gold and silver are becoming critical options for investor asset allocation, with silver potentially emerging as a "dark horse" in the next precious metal rally [9]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]