Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival this year marks a shift from a focus on Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to a deeper transformation in consumer experience, highlighting the emergence of various retail models and their resilience in the market [2] Group 1: Instant Retail - Instant retail has emerged as a significant variable this year, with Meituan's flash purchase reporting over 100 million users during the event, particularly among the younger demographic [3] - The consumption landscape has shifted from emergency needs to everyday and planned purchases, with high-value items like electronics and liquor seeing transaction volumes increase significantly, including a more than 11-fold increase in large appliances and over 10-fold in liquor sales [3] Group 2: Supply Chain E-commerce - JD.com has demonstrated the value of a robust supply chain, with user orders increasing by over 100% year-on-year during 618, showcasing its competitive edge in various categories, including apparel and beauty products [4] - The company's strong fulfillment network has enabled it to deliver products efficiently across diverse regions, reinforcing the importance of supply chain stability as a core value [4] Group 3: Brand Ecosystem - Tmall has maintained its position as a leading platform for brand management, with 453 brands achieving over 100 million in sales, reflecting a 24% increase from the previous year [5] - The platform has shown significant growth in high-value customer segments, with its 88VIP membership surpassing 50 million and brand member spending reaching 1.93 times the industry average [5] Group 4: Low-Price Strategy - Pinduoduo continues to leverage its low-price strategy, with initiatives like "100 billion subsidies" driving significant participation from small and agricultural businesses, which saw a doubling in numbers [6][7] - The platform's straightforward discounting methods have reinforced its position in the minds of price-sensitive consumers, creating a unique competitive barrier [7] Group 5: Overall Market Dynamics - The 618 event has illustrated a convergence of different business models, with instant retail emphasizing speed and localization, supply chain e-commerce focusing on certainty and service, brand ecosystems enhancing quality and loyalty, and subsidy strategies targeting price and market penetration [7] - This evolution indicates a maturation and differentiation in the Chinese retail sector, with platforms shifting their core competencies from traffic acquisition to delivering differentiated value to various consumer segments [7]

Group 1 - JD.com and its founder Liu Qiangdong have recently gained significant attention online due to high-profile activities, including entering the OTA travel sector with a "maximum 3 years zero commission" offer [1] - JD's food delivery service has achieved remarkable success, with daily order volume surpassing 25 million within four months of launch, and over 1.5 million quality dining establishments joining the platform [1] - JD's instant retail business, JD Seven Fresh, has also seen impressive growth, with online orders increasing by over 150% year-on-year and private label sales rising by 340% [1] Group 2 - During the 618 shopping festival, JD reported over 2.2 billion total orders across its retail and food delivery services, with a user count increase of over 100% [2] - The festival highlighted consumer trends such as a surge in demand for AI-related products and a preference for domestic brands, with over 70% of the top 100 brands being Chinese [2] - Rural areas showed significant growth, with order volume increasing by over 130% and user numbers by over 140% [2] Group 3 - JD's logistics capabilities were enhanced through data-driven strategies, resulting in a 20% reduction in logistics costs and improved delivery times [6] - The integration of logistics services led to a 300% year-on-year increase in orders for large appliances with "delivery and installation" services [7] - JD's physical stores also participated in the 618 event, with new store openings attracting significant foot traffic [7] Group 4 - Liu Qiangdong's return marks a new phase for JD, with plans for annual innovation launches and a focus on supply chain improvements in sectors like hospitality and dining [8] - The establishment of a new division for supply chain management in the hotel and restaurant sectors indicates JD's strategy to streamline operations and reduce costs [8]

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has become less impactful, with consumers showing fatigue and the event being stretched over a longer period, leading to diminished excitement [1][10] - Despite a reported 15.2% year-on-year growth in GMV for major e-commerce platforms, the extended duration of the event has resulted in a less impressive performance when analyzed over a consistent timeframe [2][4] - Instant retail emerged as a significant growth area during the 618 festival, with platforms like JD and Meituan seeing substantial increases in user engagement and transaction volume [6][7] E-commerce Performance - The overall GMV for the 618 event increased by 15.2% year-on-year, but the extended duration of nearly 20% has skewed the perception of growth [2][4] - JD's app achieved a record high in daily active users (DAU), driven largely by its foray into the instant delivery market [6][8] - Instant retail platforms, including Meituan and JD, reported a 18.7% increase in transaction volume, outperforming traditional e-commerce channels [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing signs of fatigue towards frequent shopping festivals, with the 618 event now competing with numerous other promotional periods throughout the year [10][11] - The introduction of the "Red Cat and Red Jing Plan" aimed to attract users through content-driven marketing, but the effectiveness of such strategies is being questioned [3][11] Subsidy Impact - National subsidies have shifted from being auxiliary to becoming a central component of sales strategies for platforms like JD and Tmall, significantly impacting sales in categories like home appliances and electronics [8][10] - The depletion of subsidy funds has led to price adjustments, with some products being more expensive during the 618 event compared to previous months [10] Marketing Strategies - Tmall invested 50 billion yuan in cash incentives, focusing on live streaming and advertising to boost user engagement and sales [12][14] - JD's strategy included significant investment in its delivery workforce, which has resulted in a substantial increase in user numbers and order volume [13][14] - Douyin has emerged as a strong competitor, with its sales figures approaching those of JD, indicating a shift in consumer shopping behavior towards content-driven platforms [15][16]

今日早参 2025 年 6 月 20 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 刘俊 能源转型首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：不确定性下保持耐心 —6 月 FOMC 点评 美联储召开 6 月 FOMC 会议，联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%， 连续四次维持利率不变，符合市场预期。会议声明中，"经济前景的不确定 性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降，但仍处于较高水平"；删除了 "认为高失业和高通胀的风险都有所上升"；总体表述与 5 月声明基本一 致。 风险提示：美国通胀超预期，地缘政治风险超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-06-19 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC:AMB145 陶冶 SAC:S0570522040001 战略：能源转型新技术观察（4）：从龙头公司招股书看高温超 导产业趋势 6 月 18 日，中国高温超导带材龙头上海超导披露了科创板上市招股说明书 （申报稿）。公司 2023、24 年实现营业收入 0.83 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a 15% year-on-year increase in total sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival, with a notable shift towards instant retail and competition among platforms [9][2] - Major platforms extended the promotional period, leading to a significant increase in user engagement and sales across various categories, particularly in home appliances and beauty products [9][2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, and Pinduoduo due to their strong performance during the promotional period [9][2] Group 2 - The transportation industry is experiencing new opportunities due to changes in global trade dynamics, including fragmentation and reduced predictability of demand [12][10] - The report suggests that logistics companies should adapt to new consumption patterns and leverage AI technologies to enhance efficiency [12][10] - Recommendations for the shipping sector include focusing on companies like Yangtze River Shipping and China Power, which are well-positioned to benefit from long-term trends [12][10] Group 3 - Dingjide (603255) is focusing on high polymer additives and plans to develop a POE project that could significantly enhance its growth trajectory [11][11] - The domestic demand for POE is currently reliant on imports, presenting an opportunity for local companies to capture market share as they develop their production capabilities [15][11] - The report projects Dingjide's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.92, 1.77, and 3.6 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 42, 22, and 11, indicating a favorable investment outlook [15][11] Group 4 - Yangnong Chemical (600486) is positioned to enter a new growth cycle as the pesticide industry shows signs of recovery, with projected net profits of 14.07, 17.51, and 20.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [20][14] - The company is leveraging its strong market position and technological capabilities to enhance its product offerings and expand its market share [20][14] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Yangnong Chemical, citing its competitive advantages and the expected recovery in the pesticide market [20][14]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival has become a significant indicator of economic vitality and consumer trends, with platforms simplifying rules and offering direct subsidies to stimulate rational consumption [1] - JD reported over 22 billion total orders during the "618" period, with a user growth of over 100% year-on-year, while Taobao saw 453 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2] - Niche markets such as trendy toys, jewelry, and pet products have shown remarkable growth, with the trendy toy sector seeing six brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales [2] Group 2 - AI technology is being widely adopted in the retail sector, with 17,000 merchants on JD using "digital humans" for live streaming sales, enhancing efficiency in logistics and production [3] - Consumer interest in AI products and services is high, with products like AI robots and smart wearables gaining significant traction on platforms like JD [3] - Instant retail, characterized by online ordering and 30-minute delivery, is driving the integration of online and offline economies, benefiting overall economic development [4]

Core Insights - The "618" shopping festival has seen a significant shift towards longer promotional periods, with platforms like JD.com and Tmall reporting impressive sales figures and consumer engagement [1][2][3] - Guangdong province has emerged as the top region in terms of purchasing power during the event, with Shenzhen leading within the province [2] - The promotion has highlighted a trend towards rational consumer behavior, with a focus on essential goods and high-end products, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3] Group 1: Sales Performance - JD.com reported over 22 billion orders during the "618" event, with a user growth of over 100% year-on-year [1] - Tmall noted that 453 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales, marking a 24% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The top three categories with the highest sales growth were digital products, including action cameras, digital cameras, and 3D printing devices, with growth rates of 380%, 256%, and 248% respectively [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The promotional period has extended to 37 days, indicating a shift from concentrated sales events to a more normalized promotional approach [1][3] - There is a noticeable polarization in consumer spending, with basic necessities maintaining steady growth while demand for high-end electronics and luxury goods remains strong [3] - The rise of live streaming and content-driven e-commerce has reshaped the traffic dynamics, with brands leveraging these channels for enhanced visibility and sales [3]

2025.06. 20 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 陆涵之 "昨天我跑了50多个订单，有一半是闪购的订单。"北京朝阳区的外卖员张壬峰对第一财经表示，6月 18日是他接到闪购订单最多的一天。 今年618，除了周期为史上最长，也涌现了不少新的消费趋势，即时零售就是其中之一。 成绩超预期 今年618，美团通过旗下即时零售品牌美团闪购加入大促，阿里也通过淘宝闪购加码即时零售。 6月19日，美团闪购公布618全周期数据：5月27日至6月18日，超过1亿用户选择在闪购下单，带动 美团闪购整体成交额创下新高。与去年同期相比，美团闪购60余类商品成交额增长超1倍，其中手 机、白酒、奶粉、大小家电等20余类高单价的"大件"商品整体成交额增长2倍，近850个零售品牌成 交额翻倍增长。 淘宝闪购此前发布的数据显示，淘宝闪购联合饿了么，在5月底日订单数已超4000万。此外，多品牌 在即时零售领域实现爆发式增长。6月12日，屈臣氏在淘宝闪购单日订单接近5万单，创下近年新 高。名创优品全国4500家门店入驻淘宝闪购，拿下了618居家出行类目成交额第一。 从布局看，即时零售业务仍属于线下部门而非电商部门。 ...

今年的"618"，以39天超长战线、四大节日连环"轰炸"，创下历年最长纪录。取消复杂的满减规则、AI 工具助力商家降本增效等成为今年"618"的新亮点，持续激发消费热情，释放消费潜力。当电商大促的 竞争回归到产品力与经营本质，"618"会走向何方？AI工具促进电商全流程"智变"，能否激发新消费动 力？ 告别复杂的促销规则，"618"卖得怎么样？ 今年的"618"，堪称电商界的"耐力赛"——从5月13日鸣枪开跑，到6月20日才冲线，整整39天的超长战 线。今年大促活动亮点频现，以更长的促销周期、更简单的促销规则、更多元的促销渠道吸引消费者的 眼球。 从活动机制的角度看，今年各大平台确实拿出了诚意。淘宝天猫放弃沿用多年的"满减凑单"，变成"官 方立减"，相比于往年，消费券的门槛也更低了，再叠加国家补贴和平台百亿补贴扶持，力求给消费者 直接的价格体验。京东、抖音电商也同样主推直降和补贴的直观促销形式。 在广东省云浮市一家数码产品销售门店，货架上新款手机、手环、电脑等产品琳琅满目，客流源源不 断。门店销售人员介绍，近年来，消费者越来越关注商品的品质、性价比以及售后服务，不再容易 被"复杂折扣"的促销手段吸引。 中央财 ...

本文字数：2574，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 2025.06. 19 史上最长618落下帷幕。 除了为期一个月的大促，今年618受国补推动，多个平台表示3C数码产品表现亮眼。而在直播方 面，从业者表示内容化直播影响力正在扩张。 国补推动3C数码消费 各平台都在6月19日交出了一份618成绩单。 天猫发布的数据显示，截至6月18日24点，453个品牌在天猫618成交破亿，同比去年增长24%。 京东表示618期间下单用户数同比增长超100%，京东零售线上业务、线下业态及京东外卖整体订单 量超22亿单。京东618期间，京东APP的DAU创历史新高。 跨境电商也积极参与618。阿里国际的数据显示，6月至今阿里国际站平台订单同比大涨42%，GMV 也保持近30%的增长。具体到各地市场，阿里国际表示美国市场已经恢复到关税冲击前的增速，同 比增长25%，甚至出现了提前3个月备货圣诞的热潮。而欧洲则持续保持超高速增长。 今年618，国补成为了热门话题。天猫数据显示，国补拉动效应显著，家电家装、3C数码换新消费 全面爆发。参加国补的品类成交总额较去年双11增长116%，带动家电家装、3C数码等行业整体成交 ...