Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since 2025, the banking sector is stabilizing its asset-liability configuration while actively growing loans and deposits, with a convergence in interbank asset-liability expansion. Although the industry's net interest margin continues to decline, the reduction in funding costs is helping to narrow the margin of decline. The outlook suggests that managing funding costs will be a key focus for banks in the upcoming quarters [1][5][6]. Asset and Liability Management - On the asset side, credit and investment are experiencing high growth, while interbank asset growth is significantly converging. In Q1 2025, the total assets of 42 listed banks increased by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with the level in Q1 2024. Both loan and investment asset scales are maintaining high growth, while interbank assets are on a downward trend [2]. - On the liability side, deposit growth is positive, and interbank liability expansion is converging. In Q1 2025, the total liabilities of 42 listed banks increased by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly higher than the asset expansion rate. The structure shows positive growth in deposits, with a convergence in interbank liabilities [2]. Loan and Deposit Structure - In 2024, the structure of loans and deposits among listed banks shows that the proportion of corporate loans is increasing while retail loans are decreasing. By the end of 2024, the proportion of corporate loans, particularly in government-related sectors, increased to 28.8%, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year. Conversely, the proportion of mortgage loans decreased to 18.8%, down by 1.67 percentage points [3]. - On the deposit side, the proportion of retail deposits is increasing, with a continued trend towards term deposits. By the end of 2024, the proportion of retail term deposits rose to 34.7%, an increase of 3.56 percentage points from the previous year, while the proportion of corporate demand deposits decreased to 21.4%, down by 1.94 percentage points [3]. Interest Margin Pricing - The industry’s net interest margin continues to decline. According to data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the net interest margin for commercial banks was 1.52% in Q4 2024, a slight decrease of 1 basis point from Q3 2024. In Q1 2025, the net interest margin for 25 banks that disclosed this information decreased by 7 basis points compared to the entire year of 2024 [4]. - The analysis indicates that the asset yield continues to decline while funding costs are significantly reduced. The yield on interest-earning assets was 3.18% in Q4 2024 and 3.04% in Q1 2025, down by 9 and 14 basis points respectively. The cost of interest-bearing liabilities was 1.83% in Q4 2024 and 1.72% in Q1 2025, down by 7 and 12 basis points respectively, benefiting from improved cost management and the gradual effect of deposit rate reductions [4]. - Although net interest margins for listed banks are generally declining, the rate of decline in Q1 2025 shows a narrowing trend. The average net interest margin for 25 banks decreased by 13 basis points year-on-year, which is better than the decline of 22 basis points in Q1 2024 and 18 basis points for the entire year of 2024 [4]. Future Outlook - The reduction in funding costs remains a crucial direction for managing bank interest margins in the upcoming quarters. Since 2024, factors such as rate reductions and regulatory improvements have significantly impacted the decline in funding costs, with many banks taking the opportunity to strengthen their funding pricing management [5]. - With the completion of concentrated repricing at the beginning of the year, it is expected that interest margins will stabilize further. The pace and extent of future policy interest rate and LPR adjustments will be critical for stabilizing bank interest margins [6].

不过这一次特朗普喊话后，美股并没有像此前那样盘中迅速拉涨，反而几大指数都出现了一定的回落， 投资者一反常态地表现得意兴阑珊，投资者们稀稀落落地离开了牌桌。 北京时间，周三早上，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指涨1.61%，标普500指数涨0.72%，道指跌 0.64%。其中，标普500指数年内转涨。英伟达涨超5%，创2月27日以来收盘新高；特斯拉涨约5%，创2 月24日以来收盘新高；奈飞、Meta涨超2%，苹果、亚马逊、英特尔涨超1%，谷歌小幅上涨；微软小幅 下跌。 美股早盘时段，特朗普自夸道，"市场上涨真是太美妙了"，并再度激情"喊单"，"它还会继续涨，涨得 高的多"，试图让美股的狂欢继续下去。 01 特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔：降息 昨日晚间，美国劳工统计局公布了月度消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。数据显示，美国4月份CPI环比上 升0.2%，同比上升2.3%，分别低于市场预期的0.3%和2.4%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，与预期一致。其中2.3%的 CPI以及2.8%的核心CPI同比涨幅，都是2021年初以来的最低值。 特朗普援引当日稍早出炉的弱于预期的通胀报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's executive order aimed at reducing prescription drug prices in the U.S., highlighting potential impacts on multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) and the contract research organization (CXO) sector. Group 1: Executive Order Details - The executive order mandates that U.S. drug prices be aligned with those in other developed countries, requiring pharmaceutical companies to offer "Most Favored Nation" pricing [2] - The order emphasizes that even with discounts, U.S. brand drug prices are still over three times higher than those in other OECD countries [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Industry Perspectives - Following the announcement, while innovative drug companies saw a decline in stock prices, the CXO sector experienced an increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Industry experts express skepticism regarding the practical implementation of the order, noting the complexity of the U.S. drug pricing system and potential conflicts with domestic manufacturing costs [2] Group 3: Impact on MNCs and CXO Services - If drug prices are significantly reduced, MNCs may seek to cut costs by increasing reliance on Chinese BD (business development) products and CXO services, as these offer cost and efficiency advantages [1][4] - The average time for new drug approval in China is 7.2 years, compared to 13.3 years in the U.S., highlighting the efficiency of Chinese biotech firms [4] Group 4: New Business Models - The potential for a new "Hybrid NewCo" model is discussed, where drug rights are licensed out while clinical development remains in China, allowing for cost-effective R&D [5][6] - This model could lead to increased collaboration between MNCs and Chinese drug companies, particularly in the context of reduced U.S. drug prices [5]

摘要：日内瓦协议，关税加征幅度减至 30%，额外 24%延后 90 天视谈判结果而定。当 前美国对中国货物加征幅度为基础关税+一阶段协议约定关税+今年 30%。关税协议很 难扭转脱钩大局，并且后续仍有美国要挟他国围堵中国的风险，2 季度可能呈现抢出口， 科技与品牌含量低的行业获得更多优惠变量。虽然关税边际递减，但一方面高额关税的 客观存在，另一方面一旦外压降低形成普遍共识，财政政策加码的迫切性进一步降低。 当资产定价回归内因后，财政发力节奏与幅度仍是决定境内资产定价方向的主轴。 1、协议后美国对中国究竟征收多少关税？ 在讨论之前，很多人尚不确定，协议中到底把关税撤到多少？是当前中美之间普遍 30% 的关税，还是加征 30%？首先笔者从对方的官方网站进行科普。 查看具体关税，可以搜索美国国际贸易委员会 hts.usitc.gov 官方网站，输入产品具体 HS 编码进行查询。例如 HS 编码 6211.42.05 是休闲外套，普遍关税为 8.1%；澳大利 亚、韩国等在第二列豁免；像朝鲜、白俄罗斯、古巴等制裁国家适用 90%的超高关税。 具体查询对中国的关税定价，需要搜索第一列 8.1%后边"1/"注释中的 990 ...

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

二、全球资本流动：美元资产配置的范式转移 美联储政策转向正在引发全球资本大迁徙。美元指数自高位回落，但期权市场显示，1个月期美元指数 风险逆转指标仍显示市场对美元进一步贬值的预期有所降温。这种矛盾信号背后，是避险资金与套利资 金的激烈博弈。 DBG Markets监测到，全球资本配置策略正发生深刻转变。企业财资管理采取分层对冲策略：对6个月 内美元负债采用远期合约锁定成本，对12个月以上敞口配置零成本期权组合。同时需密切关注离岸美元 流动性指标，当前TED利差升至28个基点，显示银行间市场风险偏好趋紧。对于防御性资产配置，医疗 保健与消费必需品板块显现估值优势，市盈率分别为16.5倍和18.5倍，低于标普500指数近22倍的市盈 率。 在美联储政策立场出现历史性转折的关键节点，DBG Markets最新研究报告揭示，全球资本市场正站在 十字路口。随着美联储主席鲍威尔释放出"降息周期可能提前启动"的强烈信号，一场涉及美元资产、新 兴市场货币与大宗商品的重定价浪潮已然开启。 一、美联储政策转向：从鹰派紧缩到鸽派转向的路径图 美联储货币政策基调突变，源于对经济数据的重新评估。尽管6月非农就业新增20.6万人超出市场 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月12日 京沪高铁（601816.SH） 优于大市 本线客流增长承压，京福安徽一季度扭亏为盈 京沪高铁披露 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报。2024 年全年实现营业收入 421.6 亿元（+3.6%），归母净利润 127.7 亿元（+10.6%）；2024 年四 季度单季营收 98.0 亿元（+0.01%），归母净利润 27.5 亿元（+4.6%）； 2025 年一季度实现营业收入 102.2 亿元（+1.2%），归母净利润 29.6 亿 元（+0.03%）。 本线客运量增长承压，跨线列车业务量同比增长稳健。2024 年全年，国内铁 路客运复苏趋势明显，全国铁路客运量达到 43.1 亿人次，同比增长 11.9%。 受国内外宏观经济环境影响，京沪线本线商务出行人群占比有所下降，全年 本线列车运送旅客量同比下降 2.3%至 5201.6 万人次。而跨线列车业务量仍 然呈稳健增长态势，京沪跨线列车全年运营里程完成 10250.7 万列公里、同 比增长 11.4%；京福安徽公司管辖线路列车运营里程完成 3763 万列公里，同 比增长 5.7%。在宏观经济相对承压且出行需求较为疲 ...

靴子落地！ 美东时间周一，美国总统特朗普签署了有关降低美国处方药价格的行政令。该行政令的详情公布后，美股大型 制药企业的股价直线拉升，跌幅迅速收窄并转涨，截至收盘，礼来、辉瑞、诺和诺德股价分别涨2.86%、 3.64%、2.98%。 有分析称，这项行政令措辞模糊，几乎没有具体实施细节，因此药企的股价反应积极，被解读为"没有预期的 担忧那么大"。与特朗普的诸多行政举措类似，他的医药定价政策似乎又忽视了市场本身的规律。 当天，美股三大指数集体大幅收涨，纳指大涨超4%，道指大涨超1160点，涨幅达2.81%，美股大型科技股集体 走高。中概股跑赢大盘，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.4%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF大涨11.07%，三倍做多 富时中国ETF大涨9.95%。 特朗普签了 白宫发布的公告称，上述行政令"指示政府向制药商传达价格目标，确保美国作为全球最大的处方药购买国和 资助国，获得最优惠的价格。" 公告称，美国卫生与公众服务部（以下简称"卫生部"）部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪表示，"将建立一种机制，让美 国患者能直接向以'最惠国'价格向美国销售药品的制造商购买药品，绕过中间商。" 特朗普的行政令还要求，一旦制药商 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is taking more aggressive actions to reduce drug prices in the U.S. by implementing a "Most Favored Nation" pricing policy, aiming to ensure that Americans pay the lowest prices for medications available globally [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Trump signed an executive order on May 12, directing the U.S. to stop subsidizing foreign healthcare and to implement the "Most Favored Nation" pricing for drugs [1]. - The order instructs the U.S. Trade Representative and the Secretary of Commerce to take action against foreign practices that unfairly lower drug prices abroad while raising them in the U.S. [1][2]. - The Secretary of Health and Human Services is tasked with establishing a mechanism for U.S. patients to purchase drugs directly from manufacturers at the "Most Favored Nation" price, bypassing intermediaries [1]. Group 2: Expected Impact on Drug Prices - Trump indicated that some prescription drug prices could drop by 50% to 90% almost immediately as a result of this policy [2]. - The new policy is expected to significantly lower healthcare costs in the U.S., with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of 30% to 80% in drug prices [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, pharmaceutical stocks in Japan saw declines, with the pharmaceutical index dropping 3.9%, marking the largest single-day drop since August [3]. - Notable declines included Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. down 5.5% and Otsuka Holdings Co. down approximately 5.4% [3]. - In Europe, Novo Nordisk initially dropped 8.6% but later reduced its losses, closing down 0.65% [4]. Group 4: Specific Drug Categories - The executive order may include GLP-1 class drugs, such as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, as well as Eli Lilly's Zepbound, in the price reduction scope [3].

危中有机最惠国定价（MFN）解读 & 国内创新药出海机 遇 20250512 摘要 • 《通货膨胀削减法案》通过医保谈判降低药品价格，首批 10 个药品降幅 达 38%-79%，但实际出厂价仅降 22%，渠道费用占据大部分降幅，对药 企压力相对可控，销售额 100 亿美元的创新药受影响约为 5.5 亿美元。 • 专利悬崖和美国药品定价压力为中国创新药企带来出海机遇，通过技术创 新和国际合作进入全球市场，缓解国内竞争压力，实现利润增长，并规避 美国复杂支付体系的风险。 • 中国创新药 license in 交易持续增长，2023 年占比达 32%，表明其质量 和海外商业化确定性较高，主要得益于人才、临床资源和 me-too 创新模 式，以及专利悬崖和定价压力下的成本控制需求。 • 专利悬崖问题严峻，预计到 2028 年将有 1,000 亿美元专利药收入面临仿 制药竞争，导致销售额下降 320 亿美元，迫使跨国药企通过外部合作和收 购补充管线。 • 大型跨国药企通过外部合作补充管线，占比高达 65%，并拥有大量现金储 备，截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日可用于收购金额达 4,800 亿美元，积极应对 市场压力 ...