Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital has become a significant force in the capital market, actively acquiring shares in A-share and H-share listed companies, particularly in stable dividend-paying sectors like banking and public utilities [1][5][12]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Activity - Insurance capital has made at least 20 acquisitions of listed companies this year, focusing on stable cash flow and dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. - Recent notable acquisitions include Li'an Life increasing its stake in Jiangnan Waterworks by 46.99 million shares (5.03%) and Xintai Life acquiring 343 million shares (5.00%) of Hualing Steel [4][5]. - Hongkang Life has also increased its stake in Zhengzhou Bank, reaching 6.68% after multiple acquisitions [4]. Group 2: Market Environment and Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment has led funds to seek companies with stable cash flows and strong performance as optimal investment choices [2][14]. - The "asset shortage" phenomenon has intensified, pushing insurance capital to invest in high-dividend equities to enhance returns and offset the pressure from fixed-income assets [14][20]. - Regulatory changes, such as adjustments to insurance capital investment ratios, have facilitated greater participation of insurance funds in equity markets [13][12]. Group 3: Broader Participation - Besides insurance capital, other entities like Asset Management Companies (AMCs) and private equity firms have also engaged in share acquisitions [7][8][9]. - The involvement of various capital types, including financial and industrial capital, reflects a positive outlook on the long-term development of the capital market [17]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Outlook - Increased share acquisitions serve as a market confidence booster, attracting more capital and promoting a virtuous cycle in the market [19]. - The concentration of insurance capital in specific sectors, particularly banking, raises concerns about potential systemic risks due to high industry concentration [20][21]. - Future strategies may involve diversifying investments into less cyclical and higher-dividend sectors to balance risk and return [21].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

在市场中首日就完成募集目标的基金，我们给它一个特有的称号叫做"日光基"。通常是指一日之内就卖完的基金。 日光基的出现往往意味着市场对这类基金的认可度极高，投资者对其投资价值和未来表现有较高预期。 要知道在如今持续震荡的市场行中， "日光基"并不常见。即使2025年2月，首批13只科创综指ETF开启发行伊始，也仅有建信科创综指ETF成为"日光基"。 而如今"日光基"却扎堆出现了！ 7月7日，首批10只科创债ETF集体开启首发，短短一天时间，全部宣布结束募集，成为10只"日光基"。按照单只基金30亿元募集上限计算，首批科创债ETF 单日"吸金"300亿元，引爆基金发行市场。 | | | | 首批科创债ETF发行信息一览 | | 171 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 募集起始 | 募集截止 | 募集份额上限(亿 基金托管 | | 基金经理 | | | | ■ | н | 份) | | | | 551503.OF | 易方达中证AA科 | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/7 | 30.00 | 兴业银行 | 杨真 | ...

Group 1 - The domestic equity market continued its upward trend last week, with the Wind All A Index rising by 1.22%, and the average daily trading volume maintained around 1.5 trillion yuan, approaching the historical high from 2015, currently less than 3% away from that peak [1] - The growth rates for specific indices included the ChiNext (+1.5%), Shanghai Composite Index (+1.4%), and CSI 300 (+1.5%), while the STAR Market saw a slight decline of 0.3% [1] - From an industry perspective, steel (+5.3%), banking (+3.8%), and building materials (+3.6%) experienced significant gains, whereas computer technology (-0.9%) and comprehensive finance (-4.5%) faced notable declines [1] Group 2 - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on addressing key challenges, regulating low-price disorderly competition, enhancing product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The emergence of new technologies and business models tends to attract substantial investment, but it may also lead to over-investment issues, where capacity expansion outpaces demand release during technological iterations [2] - The bond market saw a general decline in interest rates, with credit bond yields decreasing significantly, particularly for lower-rated AA- bonds, indicating a potential structural market trend driven by new capital inflows [2]

Group 1: Key Insights from Reports - The report highlights a significant easing of supply chain risks for the company following the U.S. Department of Commerce's removal of restrictions on ethane exports to China, allowing for a return to normal trade conditions [12][13]. - The company's α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is progressing well, with an expected total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, aimed at expanding upstream ethylene production capacity and supporting long-term growth [15]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 55.34 billion, 71.35 billion, and 84.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 6.82 billion, 9.07 billion, and 10.34 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [16]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - The REITs market has shown increased activity, with the total market capitalization rising to 207.87 billion yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.8 billion yuan, and a daily turnover rate of 0.74% [6][8]. - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a slight decline of 1.71%, closing at 1415.04 points, while the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 3.08 billion yuan [10]. - The report notes that the average cash distribution rate for property-type REITs is 3.73%, while the rate for concession-type REITs is significantly higher at 8.12%, indicating a valuation disparity between the two categories [8].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Type: Bond Research Weekly Report - Analysts: Jin Yi, Liu Chang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the weekly tracking of institutional behavior in the bond market. After the cross - quarter period from June 30 to July 4, 2025, liquidity loosened. It analyzes various aspects such as institutional bond custody, capital tracking, quantitative behavior tracking, and asset management product data [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Institutional Bond Custody - The report presents figures on the bond custody of generalized funds, insurance institutions, securities companies, and commercial banks, but no specific analysis of the data is provided [12][14]. 3.2 Institutional Capital Tracking 3.2.1 Capital Price - After the cross - quarter period, liquidity loosened. R007 closed at 1.49%, a decrease of 43BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.42%, a decrease of 27BP from last week; the 6 - month national and stock transfer discount rate closed at 0.99%, a decrease of 21BP from last week [2][16]. 3.2.2 Financing Situation - The balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 128,403.2 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase from last week. From the perspective of generalized asset management, fund companies and bank wealth management had net financing of 22.28 billion yuan and - 57.26 billion yuan respectively this week [20]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Quantitative Tracking 3.3.1 Measuring Fund Duration - The measured durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market this week were 6.92 and 5.41 respectively, an increase of 0.02 and 0.18 from last week [29]. 3.3.2 "Asset Scarcity" Index - The "asset scarcity" index decreased slightly this week, but no specific data is provided in the text [3]. 3.3.3 Institutional Behavior Trading Signals - **Secondary Capital Bonds**: Multiple signals such as turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum are provided, with gray areas indicating bullish signals [38][40]. - **Ultra - long Treasury Bonds**: Similar trading signals are provided, including turnover rate, long - short difference, and momentum [41][42]. - **10 - year Local Bonds**: Long - short difference and momentum signals are provided [45][46]. 3.3.4 All about Institutional Leverage - The overall market leverage ratio this week was 108.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last week. Among generalized asset management, the leverage ratios of insurance institutions, funds, and securities firms were 114.9% (a decrease of 3.8 percentage points from last week), 105.5% (a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from last week), and 213.8% (an increase of 1.1 percentage points from last week) respectively [47]. 3.3.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table - The table shows the nominal yield, tax cost, value - added tax, income tax, after - tax income, capital occupation cost, risk weight, capital adequacy ratio, capital profit margin, and the final income considering tax and risk capital of various investment products such as general loans, 10 - year treasury bonds, and 10 - year national development bonds [51]. 3.4 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.4.1 Funds - Figures on the weekly establishment scale of various types of funds and the 2025 fund yield distribution (annualized) are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [53]. 3.4.2 Bank Wealth Management - The proportion of non - performing wealth management products in the entire market decreased this week, with the overall non - performing rate at 1.5% [54]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking - Figures on the inter - period spread trend and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [61]. 3.6 Generalized Asset Management Pattern - Figures on the scale change of generalized asset management, the scale of public funds, and the change in the remaining scale of bank wealth management are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [65][68].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital market is experiencing a significant wave of acquisitions, with insurance funds actively buying shares in listed companies, particularly in the banking and public utility sectors, as well as in leading cyclical industries like steel [2][3][4]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Trends - Insurance funds have made 19 acquisitions this year, nearly matching last year's total of 20 within just six months [2]. - A notable trend is the substantial movement of funds towards Hong Kong stocks, with 14 out of 19 acquisitions involving Hong Kong-listed companies [2][8]. - The average return on investment for insurance companies in the Hong Kong market is approximately 15%, indicating a strong performance compared to previous years [2][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The acquisitions reflect a rebalancing of insurance assets and liabilities, emphasizing long-term value investment [2][5]. - Insurance companies are increasingly focusing on high-dividend, low-volatility stocks, particularly in the banking sector, which offers an average dividend yield exceeding 5% [6][7]. - The recent regulatory changes have allowed for more flexible equity asset allocation, potentially unlocking an additional 1.5 trillion yuan in investment capital [5]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The banking sector remains the primary focus for insurance fund acquisitions, with nine out of the 19 acquisitions involving banking stocks [6]. - Steel industry leaders like Hualing Steel are also attracting attention, indicating a tactical interest in undervalued cyclical stocks [7]. - The insurance funds are not entirely avoiding cyclical industries but are selectively investing in financially stable companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [3][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is becoming increasingly attractive due to its higher dividend yields and significant valuation discounts compared to A-shares [8]. - The ongoing release of institutional benefits in Hong Kong is expected to enhance its appeal to cross-border investments [8]. - Despite geopolitical tensions, the Hong Kong market has shown resilience, achieving a 20% increase in performance, making it a leading financial center [8].

债市周一（7日）偏弱整理，期现券波动都不大，国债期货主力全天多数在平盘附近整理，银行间现券 收益率振幅基本在0.5BP以内；公开市场单日净回笼2250亿元，资金利率仍普遍延续下行。 机构认为，随着7月税期走款、MLF回笼、政府债缴款规模提升，资金面波动可能加大，需要关注央行 公开市场投放情况。若短久期国债单期供给规模大幅下行，大行一级市场存在配置缺口，其在二级市场 买入短债力量有望增强，进而推动短端利率下行。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报121.150，10年期主力合约持平于109.105，5年期主 力合约跌0.02%报106.225，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.502。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势小幅分化，截至发稿时，30年期"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行0.05BP至 1.852%，10年期"25国开10"收益率下行0.18BP至1.7157%，10年期"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.02BP至 1.6412%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.19%，报446.59点，成交金额644.01亿元。精装转债、电化转债、楚江转债、 松霖转债、振华转债跌幅居前，分别跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...