Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between the general public's desire for falling prices and economists' preference for moderate inflation, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these perspectives [1][3][21]. Economic Perspectives - Economists advocate for a moderate annual inflation rate of around 2% to stimulate consumption and investment, as it encourages spending rather than delaying purchases due to anticipated lower prices [1][3]. - Inflation is seen as beneficial for governments as it helps dilute debt burdens, while businesses prefer it because wages are rigid and can only increase [1][3]. Individual vs. Macro Perspectives - The article illustrates the difference between individual experiences and macroeconomic data through various examples, such as the disconnect between low GDP growth and rising stock markets in the U.S. [4][5]. - It highlights that while large corporations and wealthy individuals benefit from economic growth, small businesses and ordinary citizens face stagnating wages and increased living costs [5][6]. Youth Employment and Satisfaction - Despite a high youth unemployment rate of 14.5%, many young individuals report higher satisfaction levels compared to the overall population, indicating a complex relationship between employment and personal fulfillment [7][11]. - The phenomenon of "youth unemployment" is partly attributed to a preference for quality jobs over any job, supported by family wealth [14][16]. Housing Market Dynamics - The article discusses the dual effects of rising housing prices: the "wealth effect," which encourages spending due to perceived increased wealth, and the "squeeze effect," which limits disposable income for other expenditures [17][18]. - It argues that the wealth effect is more pronounced and persistent compared to the initial squeeze effect experienced by homeowners [18]. Inventory Management Strategies - The concept of "price increases to reduce inventory" is explored, suggesting that while consumers may prefer lower prices, businesses may benefit from raising prices to stimulate demand and manage excess inventory [19][20]. - This strategy reflects the ongoing tension between individual consumer preferences and broader economic strategies aimed at stabilizing markets [21].

美国劳工统计局周四公布数据显示，美国7月PPI同比 3.3%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.3%，美国7月PPI环比 0.9%，预期 0.2%，前值 0%。美国7月核心PPI同比 3.7%，预期 3%，前值 2.6%。美国7月核心PPI环比 0.9%，预期 0.2%，前值 0%。 更新中...... 交易员减少了对美联储将在9月降息的押注。 数据公布后，美股三大股指期货快速走低，纳指期货日内跌0.36%，标普500指数期货跌0.35%，道指期 货跌0.29%。美元指数短线拉升，日内涨0.21%。现货黄金小幅走低，日内跌0.32%。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity between individual experiences and macroeconomic perspectives, particularly regarding inflation and employment [6][8]. - It highlights that while economists advocate for moderate inflation to stimulate consumption and investment, ordinary people often prefer falling prices due to the immediate impact on their purchasing power [7][8]. - The article presents various examples illustrating the differences between individual and overall economic conditions, such as the relationship between GDP growth and stock market performance [10][12]. Group 2 - The article notes that despite high youth unemployment rates, young individuals often report higher satisfaction levels, indicating a complex relationship between employment and personal choice [17][20]. - It emphasizes that many young people are not necessarily unable to find work but may choose to wait for better opportunities, reflecting a shift in personal priorities influenced by family wealth [24][25]. - The article also discusses the wealth effect versus the squeeze effect of rising housing prices, where increased property values can lead to greater consumer spending despite the financial burden on homeowners [28][29]. Group 3 - The article addresses the phenomenon of "price increases to reduce inventory," suggesting that while consumers may prefer lower prices, macroeconomic strategies may involve raising prices to stimulate demand and manage excess supply [30][31]. - It concludes that the ongoing tension between individual pain points related to living costs and economists' optimistic views on overall growth reflects a broader struggle in economic discourse [31][32].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened lower, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices turned positive, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin experienced a significant drop [1][2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell over 1%, with individual stocks like Xunlei rising over 10% and XPeng Motors declining over 3% [1] - Recent inflation data from the U.S. showed a sharp increase, indicating that the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is not as high as previously thought [1][9] Group 2 - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a sudden decline, with nearly 220,000 people liquidated globally in the past 24 hours, totaling approximately $1.047 billion [5][6] - Gold prices also experienced a slight drop, with spot gold down 0.3% and spot silver nearly 1% [7] - The recent increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. indicates a resurgence in inflation, with July PPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, significantly above expectations [9] - Federal Reserve officials expressed that a large rate cut next month may not be appropriate, contrasting with market expectations for aggressive cuts [9]

彼时，挪威央行表示，近年来通货膨胀有所放缓，但仍高于目标。与此同时，失业率已从低水平有所上 升。经济中的产能利用率已接近正常水平。经济前景的不确定性加大，如果经济发展与目前设想的不 同，利率变化也可能不同，但目标是要确保通货膨胀率回到2%。 有机构人士向中国基金报记者分析了本次挪威央行维持利率不变的考量因素：挪威通胀数据高企难落限 制了降息空间。5月，核心通胀从2.8%小幅回落，但6~7月连续维持在3.1%，显著高于2%的目标。另据 挪威央行的最新预测，通胀或迟至2028年才能回落至目标区间，凸显抗通胀的长期压力。当前利率已处 最低水平区间，若再降将逼近历史低位，进一步宽松或削弱挪威克朗。 外部影响因素主要是美联储的降息节奏。目前，美联储9月降息概率超90%。据报道，美国财长贝森特 称，美联储本可以在6、7月降息，对9月降息感到乐观，有50个基点降息的可能。 【导读】挪威央行今日宣布维持利率不变 挪威央行暂停降息但宽松方向不变，考虑年内温和降息。 挪威央行暂停降息但延续宽松指引 8月14日，挪威央行宣布维持基准利率在4.25%不变，符合市场预期。这是继6月意外降息25个基点后， 挪威央行首次暂停降息。 挪威央 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for mild rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - On August 14, the Norwegian central bank announced the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [4]. - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, stated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The central bank's previous unexpected rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, with inflation remaining above the target despite a slight decrease in core inflation from 2.8% in May to 3.1% in June and July [5]. - Current inflation pressures are significant, with forecasts indicating that inflation may not return to the target range until 2028, highlighting long-term challenges in combating inflation [5]. - The current interest rate is at a historical low, and further cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone, necessitating caution in monetary policy [5]. Group 3: External Influences - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, are influencing the Norwegian central bank's stance. There is a high probability (over 90%) of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could impact capital flows in Norway [5]. - If the Federal Reserve's actual rate cut is less than expected, it may lead to capital outflows from Norway, compounded by U.S. tariffs on the EU affecting exports, necessitating the preservation of policy tools for potential further easing [5].

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [2][3] - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, indicated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [2] - Current inflation data remains high, with core inflation at 3.1% in June and July, significantly above the target of 2%, which limits the space for further rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The central bank's previous rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, aimed at addressing inflation that, while easing, still exceeds targets [3] - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, are influencing the Norwegian market, with a high probability of a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The Norwegian central bank is cautious about further easing, as additional cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone and may need to reserve policy tools to respond to worsening economic conditions [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the general public's desire for falling prices and economists' preference for moderate inflation, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these perspectives [1][5][6] - Economists argue that a moderate annual inflation rate of around 2% is ideal as it encourages consumption and investment, preventing consumers from delaying purchases in anticipation of lower prices [2][3] - The article emphasizes that while inflation can benefit government debt management and corporate profits, it can exacerbate income inequality, as asset prices often rise faster than consumer prices during inflationary periods [4][12] Group 2 - The article presents examples of the disparity between individual experiences and overall economic data, such as the contrast between low GDP growth and rising stock markets in the U.S., where 73% of companies exceeded earnings expectations in the second quarter [7][9] - It highlights the phenomenon of high youth unemployment rates coexisting with high satisfaction levels among young people, suggesting that many young individuals prefer to wait for better job opportunities rather than accept unsatisfactory positions [15][23][25] - The article also discusses the wealth effect versus the squeeze effect of rising housing prices, indicating that while higher home values can boost consumer spending, they can also increase financial burdens for homeowners [27][28] Group 3 - The article addresses the paradox of price increases being used as a strategy to reduce inventory, noting that while consumers may prefer lower prices, macroeconomic trends show that falling prices can lead to decreased spending and increased savings [29][30] - It concludes that the ongoing tension between individual pain points related to living costs and economists' optimistic views on overall growth reflects a broader struggle in economic discourse [32]

受服务成本飙升推动，美国7月PPI环比加速上升，创下三年来最大涨幅。 美国劳工统计局周四公布数据显示： 美国7月PPI同比涨幅从前月的2.3%飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高水平，并且远超预期的2.5%，美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期 0.2%，前值 0%。 7月核心PPI同比3.7%为2月以来最高水平，预期3%，前值 2.6%，核心PPI环比0.9%为2022年4月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值0%。 数据公布后，美股三大股指期货快速走低，纳指期货日内跌0.36%，标普500指数期货跌0.35%，道指期货跌0.29%。美元指数短线拉升，日内涨0.21%。现货 黄金小幅走低，日内跌0.32%。 交易员减少了对美联储将在9月降息的押注。 服务成本创三年来最大涨幅 追随油价的上涨，PPI能源价格正在加速上涨。 航空客运服务量在6月份下降2.3%之后，7 月份又环比增长 1%。 投资组合管理成本继6月份环比上涨 2.1% 之后，7月份又环比上涨5.8%。 家庭保健和临终关怀继6月份环比增长0.2%之后，又放缓至环比增长0.1%。 医院门诊量环比下降0.5%，6月份环比增长0.9% ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 778.70 CNY per gram on August 14, with a daily increase of 0.31% and a trading volume of 149,006 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 774.60 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.1 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. decreased by 10 basis points to 6.67%, marking the largest decline since February [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai gold price rose by 0.11% to 777.10 CNY per gram, while silver increased by 1.12% to 9,318 CNY per kilogram [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates sooner, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.28% to 97.80, reflecting a slight easing of inflation pressures in the U.S. and rising expectations for interest rate cuts in overseas markets, leading to a minor rebound in precious metal prices [2]