以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 长按即可参与 我倒不是反对上面这些观点 ， 相反我也认可这些说法 ， 只是实在不希望大家在一个标的已经起飞的时候去 各种找利好和解释 ， 难道这些理由在没涨之前就不存在么 ？ 不如问问自己是不是因为涨了才信 ， 跌了还 信么 ？ （ 比如现在的美股 ？ 之前涨的理由现在还信么 ） 本来不想再聊黄金这个标的的 ， 毕竟在它没有正式起飞前我已经聊得够多了 ， 无奈还是很多人问 ， 那就 借此机会展开聊聊最近的一些体会 。 巴菲特与黄金 对于黄金很多人印象最深的应该是巴菲特曾多次公开表达对黄金投资的负面看法 ， 拿DS整理了下时间轴 ， 大概有以下这些 ： 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 莱言维语 来源：雪球 最近A股的行情温吞水 ， 涨么涨不上去 ， 跌么跌不下来 ， 外围的美股也是萎靡不振看不到啥整体向上的 希望 ， 本来没啥好聊的 。 唯独黄金一枝独秀 ， 几乎没啥大的回调一路年初涨到现在 ， 即使从月线的角度看也是以一种很夸张的斜率 从23年一路涨到现在 。 如 ...

长按即可参与 A股三大指数今日延续反弹态势，截止收盘，沪指涨0.45%，深证成指涨1.27%，创业板指涨1.59%。沪深两市成交额超一万亿，较上周五放量逾 千亿。 盘面上，随着黄金价格一路走高，A股黄金板块掀涨停潮，带动小金属集体走高，此外消费、跨境电商概念涨幅居前，银行板块领跌两市。 一起来看今天的热点。 01 黄金期货突破800元/克， 创造历史记录！ 今日，上期所黄金期货主力合约突破800元/克关口，再创历史新高。 COMEX黄金也拿下重要整数关口3400美元/盎司。 A股黄金板块也持续攀升，赤峰黄金、 晓程科技、莱绅通灵、潮宏基、鹏欣资源强势涨停。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2170.13 (+191.40 +9.67%) | | | | 讨论 | 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关ETF | 资讯 | | 全部(12) | 连板 | 关注度 | 主力资金 | 北向净流 | | 名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 市盈率 ◆ | | 晓程科技 | | 21.20 | +19.98% | 124.77 | | SZ3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation thinking for stable investment, contrasting it with trading-oriented thinking, and suggests that a well-structured investment portfolio can mitigate market emotional disturbances [3]. Group 1: Definition and Types of Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs aim to track the performance of specific commodity prices or indices, providing indirect participation in the commodity market without the need to manage physical assets [4]. - Commodity ETFs are primarily divided into two categories: 1. Physical-backed ETFs, which are transparent and have clear management mechanisms but incur storage costs and potential liquidity risks [6]. 2. Non-physical-backed ETFs, which invest in related futures contracts and derivatives, covering various commodities like energy and agricultural products [6][7]. Group 2: Classification of Commodity ETFs - Commodity ETFs can be classified based on their usage direction: 1. Precious metals, primarily gold and silver, dominate the commodity ETF market, with gold ETFs accounting for over 90% of the total scale [8]. 2. Energy-related ETFs track prices of crude oil and natural gas, with significant volatility observed in products like crude oil [8]. 3. Agricultural ETFs, such as soybean meal ETFs, are limited in the domestic market, indicating a need for more diverse products [8]. 4. Industrial metals ETFs, which include copper and aluminum, are also scarce, with only a few products available [8]. Group 3: Economic Relevance and Investment Considerations - Commodity prices are highly correlated with inflation indicators and are crucial for economic development; commodity ETFs can hedge against inflation, with gold being a primary choice [9]. - A diversified combination of different commodity ETFs can mitigate risks associated with single commodity price fluctuations and adapt to market changes across various economic cycles [9]. - Despite their benefits, commodity ETFs present higher investment difficulties compared to traditional stock and bond products, requiring substantial investment experience and awareness of unique risks [9].

长按即可参与 4月17日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上连续三次猛烈抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，措辞之严厉前所 未有。他指责鲍威尔"又迟又错"，并直言"鲍威尔早该被解雇了"。 周末，消息还在持续发酵，据媒体最新，当地时间4月18日，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特证实，美国总统特朗普及其团队正在继续研究能否解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。 01 特朗普"火力全开"：一天三次点名炮轰鲍威尔 4月17日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上连续发布三条针对美联储主席鲍威尔 的尖锐批评，将两人长期积累的矛盾彻底公开化。 特朗普在第一条帖子中写道："鲍威尔16日发布的报告又是一团糟。他早就应该像欧洲央行一样 降低利率，然而他总是太迟又犯错。"第二条则更加直接："鲍威尔应该尽早下台。"第三条甚至威 胁道："如果我想让他离开，他很快就会离开的。我对他不满意。" 这也并非特朗普首次公开批评鲍威尔，自2018年以来，特朗普就因利率政策与鲍威尔多次发生冲 突。在第一个任期内，特朗普曾私下讨论解雇鲍威尔的可能性，并公开称美联储疯了。如今，随 着2024年大选周期的临近，特朗普对美联储的施压明显升级。 目前看，相关法律条文存在模糊地带。《 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the current market environment characterized by high inflation and low interest rates, stable cash flow has become a consensus among investors. The "Dividend Index" has emerged as a star player in portfolio allocation due to its continuous dividends and relatively low volatility. However, with an increasing number of dividend indices claiming superiority, it is essential to evaluate which index strikes the best balance between "rich returns" and "controllable risks" [3][4]. Analysis and Discussion What Constitutes a Good Dividend Index? - A good dividend index must meet five criteria: 1. **Authenticity**: Trust in real cash dividends rather than inflated claims [5]. 2. **Clear Standards**: A transparent selection and weighting methodology for constituent stocks [5]. 3. **Diversification**: A well-diversified index to avoid concentration in a few companies or industries [5]. 4. **Stable Returns**: The ability to maintain dividends during market fluctuations, avoiding "pseudo-dividends" that drop sharply after initial high payouts [5]. 5. **High Dividend Yield**: A historically high and sustainable dividend yield that outperforms the industry average [5]. Comparison and Analysis of Dividend Indices - The analysis includes 30 dividend indices categorized into four types: 1. **Ordinary Dividends**: Focused primarily on dividend yield, such as the CSI Dividend and SSE Dividend. 2. **State-Owned Enterprise Dividends**: High dividend stocks selected from state-owned enterprises. 3. **Low Volatility Dividends**: Stocks with low volatility combined with dividends. 4. **Other Dividends**: Unique indices that combine dividends with other factors like quality and value [7][8]. Ratings of Dividend Indices - The ratings of the 30 dividend indices are as follows: - **5 Stars**: 2 indices (CSI Dividend, Low Volatility 100) - **4 Stars**: 4 indices (SSE Dividend, State-Owned Enterprise Dividend, 300 Low Volatility) - **1 Star**: 5 indices (Shenzhen Dividend, Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility, Consumer Dividend, Dividend Quality, Dividend Potential) [18]. Basic Data Comparison of Dividend Indices - Key metrics for the indices include dividend yield, PE ratio, annualized returns over five years, volatility, and Sharpe ratio. For instance, the CSI Dividend has a dividend yield of 6.5% and a PE ratio of 7.9, indicating a favorable position compared to others [20][21]. Fund Representation and Scale - The number of passive funds tracking these indices varies significantly. The CSI Dividend and Low Volatility 100 are highlighted as having a higher number of tracking funds, which may indicate better management and competition [23][26]. Conclusion - The analysis provides insights into the performance and characteristics of various dividend indices, helping investors make informed decisions based on their risk preferences and investment goals [3][5][7].

以下文章来源于兵哥事务所 ，作者Slumdog Millionaire 兵哥事务所 . 尤其是美国还是蓝星上的霸主 ， 就特别离谱 。 股票进攻，指数基金平衡，保险防守，深度剖析金融本质，为您的家庭财富配置保驾护航。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：贫民窟的大富翁 来源：雪球 特朗普是世界历史上第一个靠一己之力把自己国家搞出股债汇三杀危机的 ！ 美国人过幸福生活根本原因是有着 " 无中生有 " 的金融本事 ， 靠着空气+信用就可以从全球其 他国家换取真正的商品和服务 。 这里最重要的就是美国国债 ， 我们简称美债 。 截至2025年3月 ， 美国国债总额约36.6万亿美元 ， 其中约40%是2020-2021年疫情期间发行 的低利率债券 。 这些债券的利率普遍在0.5%-1.5%之间 ， 例如 ： 2020年4月发行的10年期国债利率为0.66% 。 2021年1月发行的30年期国债利率为1.2% 。 疫情期间美国为了刺激经济增长 ， 把十年期国债收益率打到了0.66% ， 美国政府开启政府消费 大时代 ， 向全世界借钱 ， 在国内直升 ...

长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 破晓笔记 来源：雪球 最近许多朋友问我疯王和关税的事 ， 按说 " 格系价投 " 是不考虑这种因素的 。 但作为经济学 爱好者 ， 我对此类话题也颇感兴趣 。 请注意 ， 这与投资没任何关系 ！ 格系价投 ， 是以 " 安全边际 " 为基石 ， 而非 " 政经分析 " 。 下面开始谈贸易 。 我发现许多朋友尚未搞清楚 " 贸易 " 的基本原理 ， 先简单念叨几句 。 初学经济 ， 总会被 " 贸易顺差 、 贸易逆差 " 等概念搞得一头雾水 。 删繁就简 ， 只说一个基 本的结论 ： 顺差是手段 ， 逆差是目的 。 翻译成人话 —— 赚钱 ， 是为了花 。 （ 这个应该没争议吧 ？ 你可能想把钱留给孩子 ， 那也 是为了花 。 ） 人们往往觉得 ， 顺差 、 逆差之类玄之又玄的东西 ， 离自己很远 。 其实恰恰相反 ， 当你发现 这就是你的生活 ， 经济问题就好理解了 。 1 、 你对 沃尔玛 ， 永远是逆差 。 你给它纸 ， 它给你货 。 2 、 你对你老板 ， 永远是顺差 。 他给你纸 ， 让你干活 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment capability of Zijin Mining has become the most important driving factor for its development, combining technology, management, and investment ability, enhanced by its private mechanism and state-owned enterprise credibility [3]. Group 1: Acquisitions Overview - Since 2020, Zijin Mining has made significant acquisitions in the mining sector, including: - In 2020, Zijin acquired 100% of Guyana Goldfields for CAD 323 million (approximately RMB 1.699 billion), with a resource reserve of about 178 tons of gold [5]. - In 2020, Zijin acquired 50.1% of Jilong Copper for approximately RMB 3.883 billion, with a recorded copper metal amount of 10.72 million tons [5]. - In 2021, Zijin acquired Canadian Lithium Company for CAD 960 million, focusing on the 3Q salt lake project in Argentina [6]. - In 2022, Zijin invested RMB 4 billion to acquire 30% of Ruihai Mining, which holds 100% of the Haiyu Gold Mine, the largest single gold mine in China [7]. - In 2023, Zijin completed the acquisition of the Rosebel Gold Mine, one of the largest and most cost-effective gold mines globally [11]. Group 2: Future Investment Plans - For 2024, Zijin plans to invest USD 1 billion (approximately RMB 707.1 million) to acquire 100% of the Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana, which has a gold resource of 54.4 tons [13]. - Zijin also plans to acquire 100% of La Arena Copper Mine in Peru for USD 245 million, with additional payments contingent on future production [13]. - In 2025, Zijin intends to acquire control of Zangge Mining for RMB 13.7 billion, enhancing its domestic mineral resource portfolio [14]. Group 3: Capital Raising Activities - In 2024, Zijin's subsidiary signed a share subscription agreement to invest approximately CAD 129.6 million (about RMB 690 million) in Solaris Resources, becoming the second-largest shareholder [15]. - Zijin also participated in private placements, including an investment of CAD 57.3 million (approximately RMB 300 million) in Montage Gold, acquiring 9.9% of the company [15]. - In September 2024, Zijin agreed to subscribe for shares in Wan Guo Gold Group for a total consideration of HKD 1.3794 billion (approximately RMB 1.249 billion) [16].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry, particularly innovative drugs, is positioned as a key strategic investment direction for China's rise in the context of global supply chain restructuring and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The "Healthy China 2030" initiative aims for the health service industry to reach a total scale of 16 trillion yuan by 2030, with R&D investment intensity surpassing that of developed countries [1]. - The 2024 government work report emphasizes accelerating the development of new productive forces, with biomedicine identified as a key area for increased fiscal support [1]. - The "14th Five-Year" plan for biomedicine aims for the biomedicine sector to account for over 40% of a projected 22 trillion yuan bioeconomy by 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Innovation and Approval Processes - The average approval cycle for domestic innovative drugs has been reduced to 6.2 years in 2023, a decrease of 3 years since 2018 [2]. - The dynamic adjustment mechanism for medical insurance negotiations will include 7 new anti-cancer drugs in 2024, with price reductions limited to 40%, thereby protecting innovation returns [2]. Group 3: Market Growth and Demographics - The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in China is expected to exceed 21% in 2024 and reach 30% by 2035, driving demand for chronic disease medications, cancer drugs, and rehabilitation equipment [2]. - Per capita medical expenditure in 2023 is 6,200 yuan, only one-sixth of that in the United States, with expectations to exceed 8,000 yuan by 2025 [2]. Group 4: Internationalization and R&D Efficiency - In 2023, the overseas licensing transaction volume for Chinese innovative drugs exceeded 40 billion USD, up from 15 billion USD in 2021, with projections to surpass 50 billion USD in 2024 [3]. - The cost of clinical trials in China is only 30%-50% of that in the United States, significantly shortening the R&D cycle for local pharmaceutical companies [3][4]. - The proportion of innovative drugs in China's pharmaceutical market is projected to increase from 25% in 2023 to 40% by 2025 [2][4]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The revenue share from innovative drugs going abroad is expected to rise from 8% in 2023 to 20% by 2025, indicating a growing international presence [4]. - The number of global biotech companies with a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan is anticipated to increase, with 3-5 such companies expected to emerge in the coming years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented market turmoil in early 2025 due to high tariffs imposed by Trump on major trade partners, leading to significant declines in global stock markets and highlighting the need for a robust investment strategy to navigate such volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Trump's announcement of new tariffs, reaching up to 60%, caused immediate panic in global markets, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 3% in a single day, erasing nearly $1.7 trillion in market value [1]. - Following China's retaliatory tariffs, the Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced severe declines, with the Nikkei index falling nearly 8% and triggering a market halt [1]. - The market turmoil affected various asset classes, leading to panic selling in equities, pressure on U.S. Treasury markets, and even impacting gold prices due to a stronger dollar [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article introduces Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy, which aims to ensure that assets appreciate in any economic environment, providing a stable investment approach amidst market fluctuations [2][3]. - A simplified version of the All Weather Strategy is proposed using the "Snowball Three-Part Method," allowing domestic investors to replicate the strategy more easily [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - The proposed asset allocation includes 25% in equity assets, 50% in bond assets, and 25% in commodity assets, specifically highlighting the role of gold as a traditional safe haven during market uncertainty [5]. - The strategy leverages the low correlation between different asset classes to create a self-balancing portfolio, where bonds and gold can hedge against poor stock market performance [5]. Group 4: Performance Validation - Backtesting during the turbulent period in early 2025 showed that the All Weather replica portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 2.27%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.42% and the S&P 500 dropped by approximately 15.8% [6]. - Over a longer period from 2022 to 2025, the All Weather strategy demonstrated a maximum drawdown of only 3.47% and an annualized return of 13.2% with a volatility of 5.51% [7]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation in 2025, advocating for a long-term strategy that protects wealth rather than seeking short-term gains [12]. - The All Weather strategy is presented as a means to achieve balance and diversification, which are crucial for managing uncertainty and building resilience against market shocks [12].