Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,305.48, up by 35.41 points or 0.08% [2] - The Nasdaq is at 19,242.61, increasing by 128.84 points or 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 stands at 5,935.94, rising by 24.25 points or 0.41% [2] - The Hang Seng Index is at 23,157.97, down by 131.80 points or 0.57% [2] - The Nikkei 225 is at 37,470.67, decreasing by 494.43 points or 1.30% [2] Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration is urging countries involved in tariff negotiations to submit their "best offers" by Wednesday, indicating a push to accelerate trade talks before a July deadline [3] - The U.S. government is seeking proposals in key areas such as tariffs and quotas on industrial and agricultural products [3] Economic Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for understanding the impact of potential dollar volatility on U.S. households and businesses [3] - Powell did not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook during his speech [3] Tariff Increases - The U.S. has raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, which the EU expressed regret over, stating it adds to economic uncertainty [3] - Negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are ongoing, with meetings scheduled for the week [3] Corporate Developments - Neuralink, Elon Musk's brain-computer interface startup, has completed a $650 million Series E funding round with participation from notable investors [6] - Microsoft has laid off over 300 employees in addition to a previously announced 6,000 layoffs, indicating ongoing organizational restructuring [7] Financial Performance - The 2025 Fortune 500 list shows total revenue for the 500 companies increased from $18.8 trillion to $19.91 trillion, a growth of approximately 6% [8] - Walmart remains the top company by revenue for the thirteenth consecutive year, followed by Amazon and UnitedHealth Group [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the China-U.S. trade relations and their implications for global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Trade Relations** - The trade relationship remains complex with mutual dependence despite friction. China is enhancing trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU, and other non-U.S. regions to maintain export resilience, employing a transshipment trade strategy effectively [1][3][5]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has increased U.S. import costs, with average tariffs around 16% and potential increases to 20%. In contrast, some Chinese exports face tariffs as high as 50%, negatively impacting U.S. economic conditions [4][5]. 3. **Short-term Export Performance** - China's exports are expected to grow by 7% in Q2 2025, but a decline is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to the expansion of global tariffs. The overall GDP forecast for China is approximately 4.75% for the year [9][10]. 4. **U.S. Economic Growth Projections** - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to around 1% from an initial estimate of nearly 2%. This decline is significantly influenced by tariff impacts [8]. 5. **Real Estate and Fiscal Policy in China** - China's real estate investment has underperformed expectations, with potential fiscal stimulus measures anticipated in the second half of the year, including special bonds to support the economy [10]. 6. **Currency Trends** - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate, potentially reaching around 7 by the end of the year. This is influenced by the current economic conditions and capital flows [12][13][23]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics** - The trade war has led to a significant shift in global trade patterns, with China increasing exports to regions like ASEAN and Africa to offset losses from the U.S. market [3][6]. 8. **Long-term Economic Relations** - In the long run, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to evolve amidst geopolitical divisions, with China focusing more on non-U.S. partners [7]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Investment Risks** - Current market sentiment is weak due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to significant declines in exports and economic growth in the latter half of the year [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising inflation expectations are leading to tighter monetary policies, with little likelihood of a new Plaza Accord [11]. 2. **Emerging Market Currencies** - Emerging market currencies are facing uncertainty due to trade dynamics and economic challenges, limiting their potential for appreciation [15]. 3. **Commodity Market Outlook** - A bearish outlook is projected for commodities like oil and steel, with expectations of price declines due to oversupply and weak demand [22]. 4. **Investor Behavior** - Investors are advised to be cautious with U.S. Treasury bonds due to volatility risks and potential dollar depreciation impacting returns on dollar-denominated assets [13][18]. 5. **Future Liquidity Conditions** - The potential for rapid liquidity release in the market is anticipated, depending on the economic recovery trajectory, which could influence asset allocation strategies [25].

Global Markets Daily: Dollar Depreciation—Repatriation Not Required (Cahill/Kanter) Dollar Depreciation—Repatriation Not Required The Dollar is overvalued, and we think it has further to fall. In currency markets, valuation is not a catalyst because it is not a very strong anchor; there are no underlying cash flows like coupon payments or dividends. Instead, when we think of valuation we use it as a starting point for analysis—why is the currency over- or under-valued, and are those forces likely to shift o ...

不知道大家有没有关注到最近资本市场的一个新现象： 本来炒的火热的黄金，近段时间波动率越来越大！ 4月底每盎司上到800元/之后，就一直在震荡下跌，价格在740-780之间徘徊了将近一个月。 而和黄金的震荡相比，最近虚拟币的上涨反而非常猛，突破历史新高到了11万美金的位置，今年开始已经上涨了17%。 BTC开始上涨，黄金反而有点上涨乏力。 大家不要单纯地以为这就是市场现象。 绝对不是！ 大家一定要搞清楚一点： 老美对全球资金的流向，有着超乎很多人想象的掌控力。 资金从黄金转向BTC，恰恰说明 现在懂王和美丽国的策略变了。 之前，懂王是想用对等关税，硬生生从其他国家那里抢钱，给自己增加财政收入还美债利息，维持美债的稳定。 但是因为东大带头对抗，关税收不上来，钱反而都因为害怕老美变卦全都拿去买黄金不买美债了，美债危机不但没有缓解，反而还越来越麻烦。 所以"关税"这个抢钱路子只能作罢。 那现在懂王的新策略，是 "曲线救国"。 简单点说就是—— 热捧虚拟币，搞大饼计划，吸引资金流向虚拟币。 所以你能看到最近的全球BTC大会，懂王的儿子以及副总统万斯都去了。 我在之前的文章就已经说过，虚拟币市场虽然被吹捧为去中心化的货币 ...

Group 1 - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a bill recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, making Florida the first major state in the U.S. to do so [1] - The bill aims to protect Floridians' "financial freedom" and provide a means to combat the devaluation of the dollar [1] - The legislation allows for gold and silver payments through money service providers, and specifies that gold coins with 99.5% purity and silver coins with 99.9% purity will have legal tender status [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that gold is a better hedge against the risk of a dollar collapse compared to Bitcoin, predicting that central bank demand will continue to drive gold prices up to $4,000 per ounce [2] - The volatility of Bitcoin makes it less favorable for investors looking to avoid risks associated with U.S. tech stocks, positioning gold as a more stable investment option [2]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is highlighted amidst ongoing global trade uncertainties, with the RMB recovering the 7.2 threshold and showing strong performance against the USD [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of May 28, the onshore and offshore USD/RMB exchange rates hovered around 7.195 and 7.188, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing the onshore midpoint, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The offshore RMB rate reached as high as 7.1703 on May 27, exceeding the onshore midpoint by over 170 basis points, reflecting a change in trading atmosphere [2]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable decrease in the trend of overseas investment institutions shorting the RMB, with many hedge funds no longer borrowing offshore RMB for short-selling [2][6]. - Large overseas asset management institutions are gradually increasing their holdings in domestic financial assets, boosting demand for RMB [2][6]. - The expectation of a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S. from May to July is driving optimism about the RMB's strength, with predictions of high trade surpluses supporting the currency [2][8]. Forward Contracts and Speculation - Some overseas investment funds are purchasing three-month call options on the RMB, betting on significant appreciation due to favorable trade surplus performance [3][8]. - The market anticipates that the USD/RMB exchange rate will rise to around 7.14 in three months, which is lower than the expectations of some overseas funds [3]. Dollar Depreciation Expectations - The ongoing trade tensions and the potential for U.S. economic recession are leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the USD, with speculators holding significant short positions [4][5]. - The expectation of continued USD depreciation is influencing the foreign exchange market, shifting sentiment towards RMB appreciation [5][6]. Impact of Chinese Exports - The surge in orders from U.S. retailers for Chinese goods is expected to enhance the RMB's valuation, as companies prepare to meet increased demand [7][8]. - The anticipated high trade surplus from May to July is prompting many overseas investment institutions to adjust their RMB valuation models, predicting a potential approach to the 7.0 mark [8][9]. A-Share Market Implications - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to positively impact the A-share market, with predictions that a 1% appreciation in the RMB could lead to a 3% increase in Chinese stocks [9]. - The positive cycle of RMB appreciation attracting foreign investment into A-shares is becoming a significant topic among emerging market funds [9].

美联储的印钞机还未停，美国佛罗里达州已经要给美元制造新的法币对手、成为"去美元化"的一支力 量。 当地时间5月27日周二，佛罗里达州州长德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）签署一项法案，要建立完整的贵金 属货币法律框架，正式承认黄金和白银为该州法定货币，声称要让佛州民众免受美元贬值的冲击。 该法案明确要求支票兑现机构或PayPal等支付服务商必须接受金银支付，还免除了符合条件且被归类 为"法定货币"的金币和银币在佛罗里达州缴纳销售税。 根据该法案，从2025年7月1日起，所有金银硬币必须标注重量、纯度和铸造来源。企业如要接受贵金属 支付需获得许可，政府机构也可通过电子转账或借记卡方式接受金银硬币缴税。 德桑蒂斯强调： 政治算盘：DOGE失利后的"金本位"牌 议员指1971年后美元购买力暴跌90% HB 999法案的发起人、共和党州众议员Doug Bankson用数据展示美元贬值的残酷现实：自1971年尼克 松总统宣布美元与黄金脱钩以来，美元的购买力已暴跌超过90%。 Bankson举例称，1979年购买一套平均价格7.5万美元的住房需要268盎司黄金。如今同样的房产价值53.1 万美元，但仍只需268盎司黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed legislation recognizing gold and silver as legal tender in the state, aimed at protecting residents from the devaluation of the dollar [1] Group 1: Legislative Framework - The legislation establishes a legal framework that recognizes certain gold and silver coins as legal tender in Florida [1] - It exempts these coins from sales tax and regulates their custodians [1] - The use of gold and silver coins in transactions will require the approval of the legislative body to implement rules [1]

5月26日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双上扬。其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高触及 7.1674，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高触及7.16163。同日，人民币对美元中间价上调86个基点，报 7.1833，达4月2日以来最高，调升幅度则系1月21日以来最大。 中国货币网数据显示，截至5月26日收盘，1年期美元对人民币汇率的远期外汇掉期点数（远期汇率与即 期汇率之差）为-2030点。 这意味着，市场预期一年后人民币汇率将升值约2.8%，有希望突破7.0关口。 最新研报认为，人民币升值会使中国股市受益。 01 中美国债利差刷新历史高点 在人民币汇率走强的同时，美元指数5月26日盘中跌破99关口。近期，美元开启新一轮跌势。在财政赤 字扩大叠加贸易政策不确定的双重压力下，上周美元指数下跌近2%，美国再度遭遇股债汇"三杀"。 今年以来，美元指数已累计下跌超过8%，抹去了去年的所有涨幅。 本月，瑞银将美元的评级下调至"不具吸引力"，预计随着美国经济增长放缓以及市场对其财政赤字的关 注度上升，美元将再次走软。瑞银建议，可利用美元短期走强之机，将多余的美元现金分散配置到其他 货币上。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人 ...