各级财政部门落实更加积极的财政政策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保 障。1—10月，全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%，其中，社会保障和就业支出增长 9.3%，教育支出增长4.7%，卫生健康支出增长2.4%，科学技术支出增长5.7%，节能环保支出增长7%。 本报北京11月18日电 （记者曲哲涵）财政部17日公布，10月份，全国一般公共预算收入月度增幅继续 提高，累计增幅稳步回升。全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。 同时，1—10月，全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元，同比下降2.8%；全国政府性基金预算支出8.09 万亿元，增长15.4%。 10月份，全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%。其中，中央、地方收入分别增长2.3%、 4%。1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，增长0.8%，增幅比1—9月提高0.3个百分点。 税收收入持续较快增长。10月份，全国税收收入2.07万亿元，增长8.6%，与上月的8.7%基本持平。1— 10月，全国税收收入15.34万亿元，增长1.7%，增幅比1—9月提高1个百分点。其中，国内增值税、 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady recovery in China's general public budget revenue and expenditure, with a notable increase in tax revenue and targeted spending in key areas [1][2][3] Group 2 - In October, the national general public budget revenue reached 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.3% and 4% respectively [1] - From January to October, the total general public budget revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.8%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [1] - Tax revenue in October amounted to 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, maintaining a similar rate to the previous month [1] - For the first ten months, tax revenue totaled 15.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous nine months [1] - Key tax categories showed varied growth: domestic value-added tax increased by 4%, domestic consumption tax by 2.4%, corporate income tax by 1.9%, and individual income tax by 11.5% [1] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries demonstrated strong tax performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 12.7% and electrical machinery tax revenue by 7.9% [1] Group 3 - From January to October, national general public budget expenditure reached 22.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Specific areas of expenditure growth included social security and employment at 9.3%, education at 4.7%, health at 2.4%, and science and technology at 5.7% [2] - Government fund budget revenue for the same period was 3.45 trillion yuan, a decline of 2.8%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 15.4% to 8.09 trillion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced the resumption of open market operations for government bonds, which is a significant move to enhance the financial function of government bonds and improve the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Market Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at enhancing the pricing benchmark role of the government bond yield curve and supporting the development of the bond market [1] - The net injection of 20 billion yuan in October indicates that the bond trading operations, which were paused since January, have now resumed [1] - Government bond trading serves as a conventional monetary policy tool for managing liquidity and can be both bought and sold to improve the scientific and precise management of short- to medium-term liquidity [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the resumption of bond trading signals increased support for long-term liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to stabilize macroeconomic operations in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, balancing the need to avoid liquidity tightness while not signaling excessive easing, thus supporting both growth and risk prevention [2] - The 20 billion yuan net buy is seen as a cautious approach, allowing for structural adjustments while maintaining market stability and leaving room for targeted adjustments through other tools if necessary [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's current operations may lead to an increase in the scale of net bond purchases to counteract the pressure from other monetary tools maturing in the near future [3] - The fourth quarter is viewed as a critical period for implementing growth-stabilizing policies, with the PBOC expected to maintain ample market liquidity to encourage increased credit issuance by financial institutions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rebound in tax revenue growth, contributing to an increase in fiscal revenue in October [2][4] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with October alone seeing a revenue of 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% compared to September [2][5] - Tax revenue in October amounted to 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, which is a key driver for fiscal income [2][5] Group 2 - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to a stable economy, with resilient production and consumption, leading to improved corporate performance and higher tax contributions [2][5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth, with domestic VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax increasing by 4%, 2.4%, 1.9%, and 11.5% respectively [5][6] - Stamp duty revenue surged by 29.5% to 378.1 billion yuan, driven by an active capital market, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 88.1% [5][6] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.1% for the first ten months, and a notable decrease of 33% in October alone [6][7] - Government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was 3.45 trillion yuan, down 2.8%, indicating pressure on land finance due to negative growth in land transfer income [7][8] - General fiscal expenditure growth has slowed, with a total of 22.58 trillion yuan spent from January to October, a 2% increase, and a significant drop in October's expenditure by 9.78% [9][10] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the need for policy continuity to support economic stability, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies in 2026, including a deficit rate of around 4% and a total fiscal expenditure of approximately 43 trillion yuan [3][10] - The current fiscal spending pace is slower than usual, with infrastructure and social spending growth rates declining [9][10] - The focus for the upcoming period is on accelerating the implementation of existing policies to generate tangible outcomes [10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a marginal recovery in October at 3.2% compared to 2.6% in September, driven by tax revenue improvements and the effects of anti-involution policies [3] - The national general public budget expenditure grew by 2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, but saw a significant decline in October with a -9.8% growth rate, down from 3.1% in September, indicating a need for continued fiscal support to stabilize the economy [4] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a sharp decline of -18.4% in October, attributed to the accelerated adjustment in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Measures - To ensure the continuation of proactive policies in the fourth quarter, incremental policies are being implemented, including the deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 [5] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits in October 2025, including an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [5] Group 3: Investment Insights - The analysis indicates a divergence between macroeconomic variables and asset prices, with government leverage increasing while household and corporate leverage remains stable or declines, leading to rising interest rates independent of the recovery in household and corporate sectors [10] - The report suggests that the solid income and interest rate differentials have been largely neutralized, making it crucial to seek alpha in future investments, emphasizing the importance of risk preference and careful asset selection [11]

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while expenditure rose by 2%[3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with expenditure increasing by 15.4%[3] - In October, general public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.3% and 4.0% respectively[6] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in October, with a seasonal growth of approximately 79% compared to September, marking the highest level in five years[8] - Personal income tax revenue experienced an "abnormal" growth of 24.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the average growth of 9.6% from 2021 to 2024[8] - Non-tax revenue declined sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% and a month-on-month drop exceeding 53 percentage points[19] Expenditure Challenges - General public budget expenditure fell by 9.8% year-on-year in October, a significant drop compared to the previous year's growth of 3.1%[23] - Local government expenditure decreased by nearly 12% year-on-year, while central government expenditure only declined by about 1%[24] - Social welfare and employment expenditures faced considerable pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 39.4%[27] Land Sales and Fiscal Impact - Land sales revenue in October was recorded at 268 billion yuan, a 27.3% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level in five years[32] - The downturn in the real estate market has severely impacted local government finances, with land sales contributing 81% to local government fund revenue[37] - Broad fiscal revenue turned negative, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% in income and a 19.1% drop in expenditure[34]

Group 1 - Japanese long-term government bonds have declined further, raising concerns about the potential impact of Prime Minister Kishi's upcoming large-scale economic stimulus plan on public finances [1][4] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surged by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since its issuance in 2007; yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds have also increased by at least 4 basis points [1][4] - The government is considering an additional budget of approximately 14 trillion yen (about 91 billion USD) for the current fiscal year, exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen, reflecting Kishi's commitment to a "responsible and expansionary fiscal" policy [4] Group 2 - The recent GDP data showing a 1.8% annualized decline in Japan's third quarter supports the push for a large-scale stimulus plan, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming auction of 20-year government bonds, with expectations of weak demand due to the current volatility in the bond market [4] - Prime Minister Kishi is scheduled to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, with market attention focused on their statements for clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [5]

| | 1、央行公告称，11月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2830 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2830亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 | | | 2、外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正 交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。另外，在二十国集团领 | | | 导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。联合声明显示，双方 欢迎符合条件的沪深交易所上市公司在法兰克福证交所发行全球存托凭证（GDR），欢迎符合条件的法兰克福证交所上 | | | 市公司在沪深交易所发行中国存托凭证（CDR）。双方同意推动中德金融基础设施互联互通。 | | | 4、财政部公布数据显示，今年1-10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Economic and Market Outlook for 2026-2027 Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the global economic and market outlook for 2026 and 2027, with a particular emphasis on the U.S. and Chinese economies. Core Points and Arguments Economic Outlook for the U.S. 1. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026 and 2027, driven by investments in AI and productivity improvements [6][7][8] 2. The first half of 2026 may experience slight economic weakness due to policy lags, but recovery is anticipated in the second half [7][12] 3. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to a neutral level of 3% to 3.25%, adopting a more dovish stance [8][9] 4. The U.S. government aims to manage its growing debt through economic growth and moderate inflation, similar to post-World War II strategies [9][10][12] 5. The dollar may stabilize despite lower interest rates, with potential slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar [13] Economic Outlook for China 1. China is in a transitional phase from deflation to low inflation, with 2026 seen as the final year of a three-year battle against deflation [4][14] 2. The projected GDP growth for China in 2026 is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth around 4.1% [14][15] 3. Fiscal policies are expected to remain conservative initially, with potential for increased spending in the second half of 2026, particularly in real estate [15][16] 4. Monetary policy may see symbolic interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points, depending on economic data [16] 5. The focus will be on social welfare and real estate policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize the economy [17][19] Investment Strategies 1. The call recommends a bullish stance on equities, particularly U.S. stocks, with a target for the S&P 500 to reach 7,800 by the end of 2026 [27][28] 2. The U.S. stock market is expected to see broad-based gains rather than being driven solely by a few high-performing companies [27] 3. Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected at 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, the strongest among global markets [28] 4. Japan's market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies and a stable inflation narrative [32] 5. Emerging markets are seen as less favorable for investment, with a focus on specific countries like India and Singapore [34] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The call emphasizes the need for structural reforms in China, including reducing local government competition and improving the business environment [18] 2. The potential for fiscal measures to support the real estate market, including direct purchases of unsold properties, is discussed but faces execution challenges [20][22] 3. The impact of consumer sentiment and wealth distribution on spending is highlighted, noting that stock market gains have not significantly improved overall consumer confidence due to high real estate investment [47][48] 4. The importance of monitoring the ongoing U.S.-China trade relationship and its implications for economic stability is stressed [39][52] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape for the U.S. and China in the coming years.