记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨黄剑 市场担忧美联储独立性受到挑战，投资者避险情绪升温，国际金价上周上涨2.86%。整个8 月， 国际金价累计涨幅超过5%，创下今年4月以来的最佳单月表现 。9月1日（截至北京时间 17:00），黄金再度驶入上涨通道，最高触及3489.86美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅有一步之 遥。与此同时，COMEX黄金期货价格盘中最高冲至3557.1美元/盎司，站上历史最高点。 多家机构积极上调了黄金价格展望，多数机构认为明年站上4000美元/盎司不是梦 。在金价迭 创新高之际，黄金上游采矿公司的业绩也是全线飘红，其中多家公司的净利润实现翻倍。 多家机构上调黄金价格展望 据新华社报道，8月25日，美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库克，引发市场对美联储独立性受 政治干预的担忧。最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维持利率不变的概率为12.6%，降息 25个基点的概率为87.4%，到10月维持利率不变的概率为5.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为 45.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为48.6%。 市场的主流观点认为，近期聚焦于美联储货币政策转向的逻辑，叠加美联储独立性受质 疑，重新推升市场避险买盘，关注金价能否 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased investor risk aversion and a significant rise in international gold prices, which saw a monthly increase of over 5% in August, the best performance since April of this year [1][3]. Gold Price Outlook - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with UBS predicting that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, and adjusting their 2026 price targets to $3,600 and $3,700 per ounce for March and June respectively [3][4]. - Citibank has also increased its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation prospects in the U.S. as key drivers [4]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with potential for prices to reach $3,810 to $3,880 if central bank purchases exceed expectations [4]. Mining Companies Performance - Gold mining companies have reported significant profit growth, with all 11 listed gold mining companies showing positive net profit growth in the first half of the year [6][10]. - Shandong Gold achieved a revenue of 56.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98% year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and optimized cost control [9][10]. - Western Gold reported a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a 69.01% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 131.94% due to increased gold production and higher prices [10]. Investment Trends - The rise in gold prices has led domestic asset management institutions to recognize the importance of gold in asset allocation, with nearly 45% of 515 FOF products now holding gold ETFs, up from 192 last year [4][5]. - The recent policy allowing insurance companies to invest in gold is expected to bring approximately 200 billion yuan in incremental funds to the gold market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing new highs, leading to increased interest in multi-asset allocation, particularly in bonds as a long-term investment option that can withstand market cycles [1] Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The recent correction in the bond market has improved the valuation attractiveness, presenting a potential opportunity for investment [1] - Galaxy Leading Bond A (519669) has achieved positive returns for nearly 12 consecutive years, with an annualized return exceeding its performance benchmark, highlighting its long-term investment value [1] - The fund's asset allocation strategy is diversified, including government bonds, financial bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and convertible bonds, balancing risk and return through macro analysis and individual bond selection [1] Group 2: Convertible Bonds Strategy - The unique value of the convertible bond market lies in its dual characteristics: it can exhibit equity-like behavior in a rising stock market and provide bond-like returns during market fluctuations [1] - The fund manager employs a quantitative model to select convertible bonds, ensuring quality and reasonable valuation while maintaining liquidity in the pure bond portion [2] - A four-tier defense system is established for risk control, including overall risk exposure management, cross-market risk awareness, internal diversification within the convertible bond portfolio, and adherence to disciplined investment processes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the evolution of the company from primarily active management to a multi-strategy hedge fund that integrates subjective and quantitative approaches, marking a new development phase driven by both strategies [1][6] - The company has developed a multi-asset absolute return strategy based on asset allocation principles, aiming for steady low-volatility returns, which is benchmarked against "fixed income+" products [3][4] - The company emphasizes the importance of long-term asset allocation and the use of various quantitative sub-strategies to achieve consistent absolute returns while managing risk effectively [5][6] Group 2 - The company’s general manager, Liang Hui, believes that the recent rise in the equity market reflects the long-term positive outlook of the Chinese economy, with expectations for a slow bull market driven by sectors such as AI computing, consumption, and overseas expansion [7][8] - The "fixed income+" products have gained significant attention, with the total market size reaching 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 250 billion yuan and an increase of over 15% since the beginning of the year [2] - The company has been optimizing its investment methods and portfolio strategies, moving beyond a single growth style to include dividend strategies and commodity stocks, while focusing on the safety and potential returns of individual stocks [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The personal pension wealth management products in China are expanding for the ninth time, with 37 new products being introduced, including two from China Post Wealth Management with minimum holding periods of 18 months and 2 years [1][3]. Product Details - The newly added products are "Tianyi·Hongjin Minimum Holding 2 Years No.1 (Anying Fund)" and "Tianyi·Hongjin Minimum Holding 18 Months No.1 (Anying Fund)" [2]. - Both products have a risk level classified as level two (medium-low) and are primarily fixed-income investments, focusing on bonds with a small allocation to equity and derivative assets [3][5]. Performance Metrics - The performance benchmark for the new products is structured as an index combination rather than a simple range, enhancing transparency and reflecting the relationship between investment strategies and market performance [3][5]. - The benchmark for "Tianyi·Hongjin Minimum Holding 2 Years No.1 (Anying Fund)" is calculated as: personal demand deposit rate * 10% + CSI 300 Index return * 5% + China Bond - New Comprehensive Wealth (1-3 years) Index return * 85% [3]. Market Context - As of August 29, 2023, there are 1,135 personal pension products available, with only 37 being wealth management products, indicating a relative scarcity in this segment [6]. - The current market for personal pension wealth management products is characterized by a high degree of homogeneity, with most products being medium-low risk fixed-income products [6][11]. Investor Sentiment - The average annualized return for personal pension wealth management products has been reported at over 3.4%, with a total return exceeding 3.9 billion yuan for investors [7][11]. - The awareness and acceptance of personal pension wealth management products among individual investors are increasing, with total balances exceeding 151.6 billion yuan, marking a 64.7% growth since the beginning of the year [11].

Core Viewpoint - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) demonstrated stable progress in its operations during the first half of 2025, characterized by a focus on transformation, innovation, and solidifying its foundational growth [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CPIC achieved operating revenue of 200.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The group's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 27.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year growth [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 19.9 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [1] - Total managed assets increased to 3.77 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.5% compared to the end of the previous year [1] Product Structure and Strategy - The proportion of participating insurance is expected to increase, with new premium income from participating insurance policies growing nearly 14 times in the first half of 2025, reaching 42.5% of new premium income [3] - The share of participating insurance in new premium income through agent channels has reached 51.0% [3] - CPIC plans to enhance the development of floating income products and optimize its product structure in response to the new interest rate environment [3] Risk Management - CPIC's personal credit guarantee insurance business is undergoing structural adjustments, with a significant reduction in risk exposure expected by 2026 [4] - The non-auto insurance premium income was 59.2 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.8% year-on-year, but excluding the impact of personal credit guarantee insurance, the growth would have been 3.3% [4] Investment Strategy - Total investment income for CPIC in the first half of 2025 was 56.9 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with an investment yield of 2.3% [6] - The company is facing pressure on asset allocation due to a low interest rate environment, leading to a focus on long-term bonds and innovative asset types such as ABS and public REITs [7] - CPIC is actively expanding its investment channels, including private equity funds and gold, to enhance the quality of its insurance fund utilization [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, particularly for investors with a risk rating of around 4 stars, suggesting that there are still undervalued stock assets available for investment [2][5]. - It recommends a stock-to-bond allocation ratio based on the formula "100 - age," indicating that a 40-year-old should allocate approximately 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds [3][5]. - The article notes that if the market rises, the stock portion can yield good returns, while if the market falls, there is still an opportunity to increase positions when the rating reaches 5 stars [4][5]. Group 2 - After determining the stock-bond ratio, the next step is to select assets, highlighting that there are generally undervalued stocks available for investment, such as actively selected stocks and certain value-style indices within index funds [6]. - It discusses three main types of bond funds: short-term bonds, long-term pure bonds, and fixed income plus, with a note that long-term pure bonds are currently not undervalued, while short-term bonds are expected to have low volatility and overall growth by 2025 [8]. - The article suggests a simple investment option like "monthly salary treasure," which has already diversified stock and bond assets, making it suitable for investors at the 4-star rating stage [8].

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market experienced a slight increase from August 25 to August 29, with A-shares leading the gains, particularly in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices, which rose over 7% [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The global equity market saw a modest rise, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in North America compared to Asia and Europe [2]. - In developed markets, U.S. stocks showed resilience with the S&P 500 up by 0.5%, Nasdaq by 1.0%, and Russell 2000 by 0.7%, while European indices faced pressure, notably the French CAC40 which fell by 2.6% [2]. - Among emerging markets, A-shares performed exceptionally well, with the ChiNext index increasing by 7.7% and the Sci-Tech 50 by 7.5% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear steepening" trend, with the yield curve showing a downward shift at the short end and an upward shift at the long end, leading to an increase in the 10-year government bond yield to over 1.8% [3]. - In contrast, the U.S. bond market displayed a "bull steepening" characteristic, with an overall downward shift in yields and an expansion of the 10Y-2Y yield spread [3]. - As of August 30, market expectations indicated an 86.4% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with potential for two cuts within the year [3]. Group 3: Commodity and Currency Movements - Precious metals led the commodity market, with COMEX silver and gold prices rising significantly, with year-to-date increases of 39.3% and 33.1% respectively [4]. - The domestic and international commodity price trends continued to diverge, with the South China commodity index slightly down by 0.2% while the CRB index rose by 0.8% [4]. - The Chinese yuan appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar by 0.7%, while the dollar index saw a minor increase of 0.1% [4].

Core Insights - The rapid expansion of ETFs has surpassed 5 trillion yuan, leading to increased interest in ETF-FOF products as a significant direction for future asset allocation [1][3][7] Group 1: ETF-FOF Development - Multiple fund companies are actively launching ETF-FOF products, with five initial pilot products launched by major firms such as China Universal and Huaxia [2][3] - The ETF market has seen significant growth, with over 1,200 products and a total scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan, providing a diverse range of underlying assets [3][7] Group 2: Advantages of ETF-FOF - ETF-FOF products offer lower costs, higher efficiency, and greater transparency compared to traditional active funds, enhancing the manageability of FOF products [3][4] - The fee structure of ETFs, with management fees around 0.15%, presents a significant advantage over active funds, which typically charge around 1.2% [3][4] Group 3: Asset Allocation as Core Competitiveness - The ability to effectively allocate assets is identified as the core competitiveness of ETF-FOF, requiring fund managers to possess strong macroeconomic analysis skills and market insight [4][5] - Fund managers must also demonstrate robust rebalancing capabilities and risk control to navigate market volatility [4][5] Group 4: Challenges in ETF-FOF - Challenges include the need for enhanced tracking and research frameworks for non-traditional domestic assets, as well as liquidity issues with certain ETFs [5] Group 5: Positive Implications for FOF Market - The rise of ETF-FOF is expected to optimize the FOF market structure, enhance product transparency, and lower investment thresholds, thereby increasing accessibility [7] - ETF-FOF products are anticipated to inject low-cost, high-transparency options into the FOF market, improving capital efficiency and rebalancing convenience [7]

【导读】ETF规模突破5万亿，多家基金布局 ETF-FOF ETF 发展热潮中，细分产品 ETF-FOF 受到关注。业内人士表示， ETF 快速扩容为 FOF 进 行大类资产配置提供了丰富的工具。未来，随着资产配置理念持续深化和 ETF 市场不断发 展， ETF-FOF 有望成为 FOF 布局的重要方向。 多家基金公司布局 ETF-FOF 作为 FOF 的细分品类， ETF-FOF 经过一段时间的试点、探索，逐渐成熟。 2021 年 8 月，为丰富场内基金类型， 为 FOF 投资者提供流动性及退出通道，上交所推动 上市 FOF 申报，富国、华夏、工银瑞信、汇添富、万家旗下 5 只 ETF-FOF 率先试点。 中国基金报记者 方丽 陆慧婧 随着 ETF 市场快速发展，基金公司加大了对 ETF-FOF 的布局力度。今年 6 月，中欧积极 多元配置 3 个月持有期混合、平安盈轩 90 天持有期债券两只 ETF-FOF 成立。此外，兴证 全球盈丰多元配置三个月持有混合（ ETF-FOF ）正在发行，鹏扬多元均衡三个月持有期混 合、浦银安盛盈鑫多元配置 90 天持有期混合、招商智享优选 3 个月持有期混合等 9 只产品 ...