Core Insights - The role of channel managers in public fund companies is not merely sales but involves comprehensive service throughout the banking collaboration process [2][4] - Channel managers serve as a vital link between fund companies, banks, and investors, ensuring effective communication of investment products and philosophies [1][2] Group 1: Role and Responsibilities - Channel managers focus on matching suitable products and asset allocation plans to different bank branches, enhancing the overall service experience [2] - Their responsibilities encompass pre-sale product training, addressing inquiries during sales, and providing market insights post-sale, ensuring a complete service cycle [2][3] - They aim to create a win-win situation for fund companies, banks, and investors by leveraging both the professional investment research capabilities of fund companies and the comprehensive financial services of banks [2] Group 2: Professional Development - The role of channel managers has evolved from product promoters to investment advisors, requiring a deeper understanding of macro markets, industry trends, and asset allocation logic [4] - They participate in internal selection and strategy meetings to align product offerings with client needs, thereby enhancing the variety of products available to investors [4] - Channel managers engage in continuous professional development, balancing their time between on-site training at bank branches and internal strategy discussions [4]

二、分论坛：解码中国量化策略的下一增长曲线 在全球宏观格局深度演变、AI重构投研逻辑、新质生产力重塑产业格局的背景下，中国资管行业正站在"逻辑重塑"的十字路口。2026年1月15 日，由财视中国主办的第十九届HED中国峰会·深圳暨"第十九届介甫荣耀之夜"将于深圳盛大启幕，超过400位海内外金融机构掌舵人、顶尖投 资人与行业专家将齐聚一堂，共探2026年市场破局之道。 中国量化行业正站在一个鲜明的分水岭上，呈现出"量质齐升"与"竞争加剧"并行的新格局。规模上，百亿级量化私募数量已历史性地超越主观 多头同行；质量上，其超额收益能力日益稳健，2025年跑赢业绩基准的比例显著高于市场均值。但与此同时，赛道拥挤、AI技术竞赛加剧等挑 战也随之而来，出海寻求第二增长曲线已成为不少头部机构的共同选择——中资量化机构如何构建可持续的全球竞争力，成为行业亟待解答的 新课题。 针对这一背景，峰会特设分论坛"中国量化策略的下一阶段"，集结量化领域"梦之队"：千朔投资总经理丁志强、广金美好总经理罗山、大岩资 本总经理黄铂、优美利投资总经理贺金龙等重磅嘉宾，将围绕"量化股票策略的创新与前沿趋势""中资海外基金的生态构建"等核心议题深度 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of ETFs has significantly increased this year, reaching 5.78 trillion yuan as of December 15, with a growth of over 2 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Institutional Investor Demand - The demand from institutional investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds, has notably increased, driving the growth of ETF scales [2] - ETFs are favored by institutional investors for their high transparency and liquidity, making them a primary choice for asset allocation [2] - Several ETFs linked to indices like AAA Sci-Tech Bonds and CSI 300 have seen scale increases of nearly 200 billion yuan each, with four indices exceeding 100 billion yuan in growth [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The increase in ETF scales is attributed to enhanced asset attractiveness and a shift in investor risk preferences towards high-rated credit bonds and large-cap blue-chip stocks [3] - The growth of cross-border index ETFs, such as those linked to Hong Kong stocks, reflects a diversification in market risk preferences and improved cross-border investment convenience [3] - The positive market sentiment and concentrated fund flows into high liquidity assets indicate strong investor confidence in core indices [4] Group 3: Performance of Leading Fund Companies - A total of 69 ETFs have grown by over 10 billion yuan this year, with five products exceeding 50 billion yuan in growth [4] - Leading fund companies, such as Huatai-PB and E Fund, have seen significant increases in ETF management scales, with 16 institutions managing over 100 billion yuan [4][5] - The competitive advantages of leading companies in research and strategy optimization have effectively attracted capital inflows into the ETF market [5]

新华财经上海12月17日电（记者杨溢仁）2025年，债券市场"科技板"正式落地，为债券ETF市场注入了 强劲发展动能。 作为连接金融与科技的重要工具，2025年科创债ETF在政策红利与市场需求的双重驱动下，实现了规模 的快速扩容，以及交易活跃度的稳步提升，投融两端呈现出了多元化发展的特征。 展望2026年，科创债ETF市场规模会否继续扩张？未来将呈现出怎样的发展趋势？投资布局应关注哪类 标的？ 市场扩容提速 2025年截至11月末，科创债ETF市场迎来爆发式增长，规模扩容成效显著，一级市场供给充足，二级市 场交易活跃，整体呈现高质量发展态势。 可以看到，年内市场中分两批共推出了24只科创债ETF，分别为7月17日上市的第一批10只和9月24日上 市的第二批14只。 受益于第二批产品集中募集上市的影响，科创债ETF市场规模实现快速攀升。据券商统计，截至11月21 日，科创债ETF总市值已达2536亿元，流通份额合计25.34亿份，较9月23日的规模增长了1251亿元。 再就全年增量贡献来看，截至2025年三季度末，科创债ETF单一品类为信用债ETF贡献了超过2500亿元 的增量，占信用债ETF新增规模近60%。 ...

Summary of China Life Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Life Insurance - **Industry**: Insurance Key Points and Arguments Market and Economic Outlook - China Life expects interest rates to fluctuate within historical low ranges in 2026, with upward potential due to anti-involution policies and consumption-boosting strategies [2][4] - The company anticipates a decline in speculative buying demand for long-term bonds, suggesting a potential upward movement in interest rates, albeit with a complex process [2][4] - The stock market outlook remains positive in the long term, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than significant recovery chances [2][4] Investment Strategy - China Life maintains a neutral yet flexible strategy in bond allocation, adjusting based on market supply and interest rate trends [2][5] - As of Q3, public market equity holdings account for approximately 16% of the portfolio, with plans to optimize allocation based on regulatory policies and market demands [2][5] - The effective duration gap is under two years, one of the lowest in the industry, indicating a conservative approach to interest rate risk [2][6] Product and Channel Performance - The company views insurance products as a favorable asset allocation choice amid current interest rate declines and consumer savings shifts [3][20] - The dividend insurance channel is positioned as a strategic support, showing significantly higher growth compared to individual insurance, with expectations for continued high growth [3][27] - China Life plans to enhance the proportion of FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) assets to mitigate stock price volatility impacts on investment returns [2][11] Regulatory and Financial Adjustments - Adjustments to solvency factors have minimal impact on equity allocation, as the company maintains sufficient solvency without significant reclassification [7] - The company does not foresee frequent adjustments to actuarial assumptions, with a low probability of changes for 2026, which could lead to improved margins [13][14] - The average margin for overall business in 2026 is expected to improve through cost reduction and efficiency measures [14][15] Future Business Projections - The pre-sale situation for 2026 is promising, attributed to early preparations and product design adjustments, alongside favorable capital market conditions [16][17] - The company is optimistic about the first quarter of 2026, aiming for good results in premium scale and product types [17] - The impact of expanded medical insurance directories on commercial health insurance sales is expected to be limited in the short term but beneficial in the long run [24] Risk Management and Product Differentiation - Dividend insurance has a slightly higher allocation in equity assets compared to traditional insurance due to differing liability characteristics [8][10] - The company is prepared to launch dividend-type critical illness insurance products, pending regulatory guidelines [23] Conclusion - China Life Insurance is strategically positioned to navigate the current economic landscape with a focus on flexible investment strategies, regulatory compliance, and product innovation, aiming for sustainable growth and improved profitability in the coming years [2][3][4][5][16][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, as the Fed cuts interest rates (market expects a cut to 3.0 - 3.25% by the end of 2026), commodities may bottom out and present allocation opportunities [1]. - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to oscillate in the range of 1.5 - 2.0%. Slow fiscal spending and inflation recovery will limit the downside space of Treasury bond futures [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index will oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, appropriately reduce positions, and pay attention to the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process and specific measures to expand terminal consumption in China [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Review - In 2025, there was a divergence in Sino - US commodities, with US commodities being stronger and Chinese commodities being weaker. The overall view at the end of 2024 for 2025 was that Treasury bonds would oscillate, stock indices would be slightly bullish, and commodities would be bearish, which was generally correct, except that US commodities were stronger than expected [5]. - In the US, with the Fed's interest - rate cuts, Trump's policies of adding tariffs externally, cutting taxes internally, and restricting immigration, the US economy may face stagflation risks. In China, the real estate market still faced pressure in recovery, private fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, and demand was weak. Although a more proactive fiscal policy brought short - term impacts on the stock, bond, and commodity markets, commodities then trended towards reality [5]. - Overseas, on April 2, Trump issued a more - than - expected reciprocal tariff policy, causing commodity prices to plummet. Subsequently, commodity and energy prices continued to weaken. The Fed cut interest rates twice in September and October to address weak employment. The US economy showed stagflation characteristics [5]. - Domestically, after a rebound at the beginning of the year, commercial housing sales continued to weaken, and domestic demand remained weak. In October, China's PPI was - 2.1% and CPI was 0.2%, the first positive CPI growth in Q2 2025 but still at a low level. The prices of domestic - priced black commodities slightly rebounded due to anti - involution meetings and production - cut plans but weakened again as anti - involution expectations cooled. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate strengthened and oscillated at a high level [6]. 2026 Outlook US - The US economic growth is expected to slow down moderately, presenting a pattern of "slowing employment and consumption - high inflation and deficits". The high deficit rate of nearly 6% makes government debt unsustainable. The contradiction between high interest rates and fiscal deficit sustainability is becoming more prominent, posing potential risks to the US economy [8]. - It is estimated that the real GDP growth rate in the US will be about 1.8% in 2026, showing a moderately slowing trend. Consumption and import growth are expected to slow down as fiscal deficits decline; private - sector construction investment growth is expected to continue to slow down due to trade - friction uncertainties, the decline of investment tax credits, and doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure; the consumption and inventory cycles face certain downward pressure [10]. - The labor market shows weak signals. In 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was consistently below 200,000, and the unemployment rate continued to rise. In September 2025, the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. It is expected that the US will still face high unemployment in 2026, and solving labor - market weakness may be the primary goal of monetary and fiscal policies [12]. - The US CPI growth rate is expected to be in the range of 2.2 - 2.9% in 2026, maintaining a relatively high inflation level. Factors contributing to inflation resilience include high salaries and personal consumption expenditures, Trump's policies with inflation - promoting attributes, and the "dovish" stance of the new Fed chairman, which may push up inflation through interest - rate cut expectations [16]. - In 2026, the US will still be in an interest - rate cut cycle, but the path is not smooth. The market expects the federal funds rate to be reduced to the 3.0 - 3.25% range. If inflation does not decline as expected, it will make the interest - rate cut space volatile and increase market fluctuations [18]. - The sustainability of the US fiscal deficit is being tested. The US national debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars in October 2025. The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to add about 3.4 trillion US dollars in fiscal deficits in the next decade, on top of the debt accumulated by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act". To reduce the fiscal deficit rate to 3%, a combination of reducing fiscal spending, increasing fiscal revenue, and cutting interest rates is required [19]. China - China's inflation data was weak in 2025. With the support of policies such as the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026. In October 2025, China's PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and CPI was 0.2% year - on - year. After an increase in commercial housing sales within the year, it declined again, and the year - on - year increase in M1 was significant [24]. - In the short term, it is still difficult to see an obvious upward trend in inflation. The Fed's high - interest - rate policy in H1 2025 pressured China's exports; the decline in commercial housing prices led to continuous negative growth in new household credit and real - estate investment, and it is difficult to reverse the weakening trend of housing prices under the "housing is for living in, not for speculation" principle; there is over - capacity in some industries, and the aging population has depressed private - sector demand. The implementation of anti - involution policies and production cuts due to processing losses are expected to increase bottom - level fluctuations in commodities in 2026 [26]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, with reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to ensure sufficient market liquidity, and new structural monetary policy tools to support the development of small and micro enterprises. The reasons for strengthening supportive monetary policy include high real interest rates due to slow inflation and the need to create a more liquid environment for economic development and local - government leverage management [27]. - To boost inflation and economic growth, China needs a combination of fiscal, stock - market, real - estate, and consumption - subsidy policies. In 2025, the central bank only adjusted the LPR once in May. The weakening real - estate market has weakened the wealth effect, consumer confidence, and domestic demand, and strengthened residents' savings motivation. In October 2025, China's household deposit balance exceeded 160 trillion yuan, almost double the level at the end of 2019 before the pandemic [28]. - The bull market in the Chinese stock market in 2025 led to a deposit - transfer effect, but it has not been transmitted to the consumption end. The number of new stock - market accounts increased with the rise of the CSI 300, but may decline in November and December. In 2025, new RMB loans were at a five - year low, while new government bonds increased, indicating an expansionary fiscal policy. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, but consumption data did not improve significantly. To transmit the deposit - transfer effect to consumption in 2026, the stock - market bull market needs to continue, and policies need to boost consumption [30]. 2026 Allocation Outlook - In the US, with a downward - shifting interest - rate center and high inflation, the US economic resilience is expected to decline, consumption and imports will fall, and employment may be poor. Expansionary fiscal policies may cause debt - sustainability issues. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level between 3.5 - 4.5%, the US dollar will oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3), gold prices are high, and non - ferrous metals should be over - allocated. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities arising from the oscillation of US consumption and imports [33]. - In China, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026, and PPI will rise to - 0.5 - - 1%. There is room for interest - rate cuts in the monetary - policy end. With liquidity support, A - shares are expected to remain active in trading, and Treasury bond yields present allocation opportunities. The implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution policies may support commodity prices at the bottom, and prices may bottom out in H2 2026 [33]. - In asset allocation, non - ferrous metals and Treasury bonds should be over - allocated, and equities should be neutrally allocated: - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds will oscillate widely between 3.5% - 4.5% and is expected to decline [33]. - The US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3). Attention should be paid to improvements in the US fiscal and trade deficits, which will affect the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the US dollar's downward trend [34]. - Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level between 4400 - 4500. It is relatively expensive, and some non - ferrous rare - earth metals should be allocated. Global central - bank gold purchases and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle will push up the gold - price center [34]. - The target of the CSI 300 is 4300 - 5200 points. Attention should be paid to the boost of policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan to the technology and energy sectors, and the continuation of the structural bull market in H2 2025. Also, pay attention to the re - balance between stocks and bonds [34]. - The yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to oscillate between 1.5 - 2.0%, and there will be good allocation opportunities when the interest rate rises to 2.0% [34]. - Commodities are expected to present bottom - level allocation opportunities in 2026. Attention should be paid to phased opportunities in H2 2026, such as crude oil, coking coal, live pigs, and some chemical products [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of personal precious metals trading business by banks acting as agents for the Shanghai Gold Exchange is aimed at managing market risks, complying with regulatory pressures, and fulfilling investor suitability obligations, leading to a more concentrated and mature market structure in precious metals investment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), have announced adjustments to their personal precious metals trading business, actively clearing inactive "three-no" clients (no positions, no inventory, no debts) [4]. - ICBC's announcement indicates that from December 19, 2025, it will transfer the balances of these clients' margin accounts to their linked settlement accounts and terminate related business functions [4]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and China Postal Savings Bank have also made similar announcements regarding the termination of agreements with inactive clients [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe that the banks' actions will lead to a reduction in speculative trading and a reassessment of risk-return characteristics of gold investments by individual investors [7][8]. - The tightening of bank channels may result in a decrease in trading volume and liquidity in the short term, but it is expected to guide funds towards more transparent and compliant markets in the long term [8][9]. - The exit of individual investors is likely to concentrate market participants among institutional clients, leading to more rational trading behavior and potentially reducing market volatility [9]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The retail precious metals business of banks is undergoing a transformation from trading channels to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage trading towards more stable financial products like gold ETFs [11][12]. - This shift indicates that banks are focusing on providing asset allocation services and standardized financial products rather than merely facilitating trading and selling physical gold [12]. - The future development of bank precious metals business is expected to remain significant, with opportunities in promoting lower-risk investment products that meet residents' demand for gold as a hedge and asset allocation [12].

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 詹钰叶 近日，鹏扬基金在深圳举办投资者交流与金融文化体验活动。本次活动通过解读财经政策，梳理市场脉络，辨析投资策略，体验特色文化，为投资者奉上了 一道金融大餐。 洞察与思辨——从可为市场到有为市场 本次交流活动聚焦于AH市场投资策略展望。鹏扬基金高级策略分析师、品牌宣传负责人魏枫凌从经济政策解读和金融市场现象出发，为投资者分析国内外 宏观经济形势与资产配置策略，展望"十五五"时期中国经济的发展方向，重点讲解股票市场投资机会。他分析指出，当前市场正处于结构化行情，追逐短期 热点的叙事交易模式面临更大的市场波动，市场风格向有扎实业绩和成长性的基本面投资进行再平衡，扩大内需、科技创新攻坚与应用、建设全国统一大市 场将是决定明年经济和资本市场表现的最重要政策变量。从资产配置角度看，全球主要经济体财政发力驱动经济复苏和通胀结构性抬升；资金流向方面，综 合多种因素表明，全球超配美元资产的模式正在结束，资金青睐于具备估值等性价比优势的中国资产；行业观点则强调，资本市场正从科技一枝独秀过渡至 科技与周期红利共鸣的新格局。 图片均由鹏扬基金提供 在随后的互动问答环节，与会嘉宾就宏观经济走势、跨境投资机 ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 自11月19日首席视点提出积极地等待后，市场处于相对僵持的状态。此后，我们陆续讨论了2026年流动 性、康波周期等五大周期，以及策略实施的问题。上期提出了锚定盈利、聚焦中游、工具适配的2026年 资产配置策略，其有效性根植于"风险溢价下行、盈利上行、结构分化"的三重共振。契合我们一直坚持 的"周期共振为锚、战略聚焦新动能、战术攻守兼备"的核心框架，在不确定性中锚定盈利确定性，在结 构分化中把握中游产业的稀缺价值。 在上述策略的实施中，还有一些基本的技术细节没有处理。这些细节对单一资产收益和风险边界的确 定，对股票、债券、黄金等不同资产性价比的认定具有决定性的作用，主要指资产配置的基准线。从宏 观策略的视角看，这些基准线由收益的基准线和风险的基准线组成。收益的基准线主要指基础因子中的 经济增长，GDP增长率和企业盈利率是最基本的分析因素。 风险的基准线主要指通货膨胀因子，CPI和PPI是主要观察对象。除此之外，无风险收益率是资产配置的 基准，这可以纳入流动性因子之中。投资者关注的流动性还包括资金的价格和资金的数量，资金的价格 包括贷款市场报价利率（LPR）以及人民币汇率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]