Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 789.3 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% on July 25, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan after accounting for 187.5 billion yuan maturing that day [2][5] - The interbank market saw a significant improvement in liquidity, with the overnight repurchase weighted average rate (DR001) dropping over 13 basis points to near 1.50% [5] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.28% [7] Group 2: Interbank Certificates of Deposit and Bond Yields - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [9] - The yields on major interbank government bonds have shown varying trends, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.48%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.07% and 0.04% respectively [13] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of maintaining market stability and regulatory rigor amidst complex external and internal environments, aiming to support economic recovery and modernization [14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that national public budget expenditure for the first half of 2025 reached 14,127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security and employment spending by 9.2% [15] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank's survey indicates a decrease in inflation expectations for 2025 to 2.0% from 2.2%, and for 2026 to 1.8% from 2.0%, with tariffs expected to have a minor downward impact on inflation [17] Group 5: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance has issued a third batch of ultra-long special government bonds totaling 67 billion yuan, with remaining funds to be issued in October [19] - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds were issued in the first half of the year [19] - Recent negative events in the bond market include rating downgrades and delays in ratings for several issuers, indicating potential risks in the bond issuance landscape [21]

会议要求，学会会员要重视理论研究，加强调查研究，打通理论到实践的"最后一公里"；要团 结协作，加强会员之间交流合作，坚持"开门办学会"，广泛团结更多专业力量，加强与广大中 小投资者联络互动，不断增强我国"资本市场叙事"的传播力、影响力；要遵章守规，认真履行 会员义务，积极参加学会活动，共同维护好学会和资本市场的良好声誉。 中国资本市场学会成立大会暨第一届第一次会员代表大会2025年7月26日在上海召开。 会议表决通过《中国资本市场学会章程》等重要制度，设立宏观与产业、市场稳定与风险防 控、创新发展、市场微观结构、期货与衍生品、国际市场与对外开放、法治与投资者保护等7 个专业委员会，选举产生学会第一届会员理事和学会负责人。 中国证监会主席吴清当选学会第一届理事会会长，中国证监会副主席李超当选学会第一届理事 会执行副会长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society marks the creation of an official think tank and advisory group for the Chinese capital market [1] Group 1: Membership and Leadership - The society is led by prominent figures, with the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, serving as the President of the Council, indicating strong governmental support [2] - The executive vice presidents include significant personalities such as Li Chao, the Vice Chairman of the CSRC [3] - Wei Gang, the Deputy Director of the China Securities Financial Research Institute, is appointed as the legal representative of the society [4] Group 2: Membership Composition - The society boasts a "star-studded" membership, including: 1. Renowned scholars and theoretical experts from top domestic and international universities 2. Chairpersons and general managers from leading financial institutions in securities, funds, and futures 3. Chairpersons of listed companies 4. Representatives from relevant regulatory bodies [5] Group 3: Core Areas of Focus - The society has established several specialized committees targeting critical areas of the capital market, including: 1. Macroeconomics and Industry Committee 2. Market Stability and Risk Prevention Committee 3. Innovation Development Committee 4. Market Microstructure Committee 5. Futures and Derivatives Committee 6. International Market and Opening-up Committee 7. Legal System and Investor Protection Committee [6] Group 4: Research and Publications - The society will launch an official academic journal titled "Capital Market Research," which will serve as a top-tier publication in the field of China's capital markets [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China Capital Market Society marks the creation of an official think tank and advisory group for the capital market, which is significant for the 200 million stock investors in China [1] Group 1 - The society is led by prominent figures, with the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, serving as the president, indicating strong governmental support [2] - The executive vice presidents include key individuals such as the CSRC vice chairman, Li Chao, showcasing a powerful leadership team [3] - Wei Gang, the deputy director of the China Securities Finance Research Institute, is appointed as the legal representative of the society [4] Group 2 - The society's membership includes top scholars from prestigious universities, leaders from major financial institutions, and representatives from listed companies, forming a "star-studded" lineup [5] Group 3 - The society will focus on seven core areas to address market challenges, with specialized committees established for macro and industrial issues, market stability and risk prevention, innovation development, market microstructure, futures and derivatives, international markets and openness, and legal frameworks and investor protection [6][7] Group 4 - The society plans to launch an official academic journal titled "Capital Market Research," which will serve as a leading publication in the field of China's capital markets [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of wealth transfer during economic crises, emphasizing that each crisis presents opportunities for ordinary individuals to advance their wealth through strategic investments in real estate, internet industries, and potentially in capital markets in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Wealth Transfers - The first major wealth transfer occurred in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, driven by industrialization and urbanization, which led to significant shifts in land ownership and wealth concentration in real estate [1][2]. - The second wealth transfer happened after the 2008 global financial crisis, primarily benefiting those involved in the internet industry, as capital shifted from real estate to online platforms, allowing tech giants to monetize user data [2][3]. Group 2: Future Wealth Transfer - A potential third wealth transfer is anticipated in the next 5-10 years, influenced by the current economic downturn and the movement of funds from bank deposits to other sectors [3][4]. - The focus of this future transfer will likely be on the capital market, as the government aims to stimulate consumption and investment, redirecting funds to areas that require growth, particularly the financial market [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Development Stages - The article outlines two critical stages for a country to become a major power: first, becoming an industrial power to ensure economic security, and second, evolving into a financial power to protect national wealth and support enterprise development [6][7]. - The transition to a financial power is essential for sustaining economic growth and preventing wealth loss, as illustrated by historical examples like the Soviet Union [8][9]. Group 4: Capital Market Potential - The article posits that the future of wealth distribution may shift from real estate to the capital market, with the potential for significant inflows of capital if the market can demonstrate strong returns [15][16]. - The anticipated growth in technology sectors and the weakening of U.S. monetary dominance could enhance the prospects for the capital market, making it a viable alternative for wealth accumulation [16][17]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - While the capital market may present opportunities, the article advises caution in stock trading due to the current global economic uncertainty and the risks associated with individual trading decisions [17][20]. - A balanced approach to investment is recommended, prioritizing stable returns over speculative stock trading until the market shows clearer signs of recovery [21][22].

Report Details 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The trading desk is advised to wait and see temporarily [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures fluctuated higher in the morning, declined in the afternoon, and plunged at the end of the session, with most closing down. In the cash bond market, yields initially fell by up to 4bp in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and then declined again after the market, halting the continuous upward trend. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds [2] - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 187.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, which improved market sentiment [2] 3.2 News and Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid - year work meeting on July 24, emphasizing that although the internal and external environment of the capital market remains complex, the certainty of high - quality economic development, macro - policy expectations, and the valuation repair of Chinese assets provide a basis for the stable and healthy operation of the market [3] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan mentioned coordinating treasury bond issuance with the Ministry of Finance during the session, which improved the sentiment of bond market bulls [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of over 600 billion yuan alleviated market tension. The central bank's supportive monetary policy stance is the last and strongest support for the bulls [4] - The A - share market adjusted during the session, with the broader market weaker than small and medium - cap stocks. The TMT sector, which had been continuously adjusting, rebounded, while sectors such as building materials and building decoration related to the Ya - Xia concept led the decline, and upstream resource stocks significantly adjusted. There was a divergence between the equity market and the commodity market, with commodities remaining strong [4] - The late - session plunge in treasury bond futures may have been affected by the strong performance of commodities [4] 3.4 Data Overview - Data for various treasury bond futures contracts (TS2509, TF2509, T2509, TL2509) including opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, as well as contract positions and trading volumes are provided. Data on various deposit - based inter - bank repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and their trading volumes are also presented [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure exerted by President Trump on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the implications for the Fed's independence and the capital markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Visit and Pressure on the Fed - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve is the first by a sitting president in nearly 20 years, aimed at pressuring Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [3]. - Trump suggested that reducing rates by three percentage points could save the U.S. over $1 trillion [3]. - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points in 2026, up from an earlier expectation of 25 basis points [3]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - Congressman Luna has accused Powell of perjury regarding the $25 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, claiming he misrepresented the project's luxury features and budget adjustments [6]. - The allegations come amid ongoing pressure from Trump and his allies, aiming to undermine Powell's authority and potentially set the stage for his removal [6][9]. - Powell has denied the allegations and initiated an internal review of the renovation project to restore public trust [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-term Risks - Short-term market reactions show a rise in stock indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, indicating a focus on corporate earnings rather than political turmoil [7]. - The bond market reflects increased risk aversion, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by approximately 6 basis points [7]. - Long-term risks include challenges to the Fed's independence, which could lead to inflation expectations becoming unanchored and damage the credibility of the U.S. dollar [7][10]. Group 4: Legal and Internal Factors - Legally, removing the Fed Chairman requires "just cause," and if the perjury allegations are not substantiated, it may be difficult to remove Powell [9]. - Internal opposition exists, with moderate figures like Treasury Secretary Mnuchin opposing the removal, citing the current economic stability [9]. Group 5: Conclusion and Investor Guidance - The situation is characterized as a political struggle using moral issues, with limited short-term market impact but potential long-term systemic risks due to the erosion of the Fed's independence [10]. - Investors are advised to monitor the judicial investigation and Trump's policy direction, prioritizing assets that can withstand volatility, such as gold and short-term Treasuries, while being cautious of long-term credit risks associated with dollar assets [10].

宏观信息 行业信息 综合点评及操作建议 五、宏观信息 外交部发言人宣布，国务院总理李强将于7月26日出席在上海举行的2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕式并致辞。 商务部表示，打击战略矿产走私出口面临的形势依然复杂严峻，下阶段将采取建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心，将违法境外实体列入出口管制管控名 单，制定发布战略矿产合规出口工作指引等举措。 国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张。一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是 坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平、公正、非 歧视的营商环境。 央行、农业农村部印发《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的意见》，提出要加大乡村振兴重点领域的金融资源投入，包括加大对粮食主产区、 产粮大县信贷资源倾斜，支持拓宽农民增收渠道等。 国家发改委表示， 2025年7350亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕，重点支持现代化产业体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴等领域项 目建设。 六、行业信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production [2][3] - The current phase of production expansion is leading to overcapacity, causing price reductions and hindering price increases in both consumer goods and assets [3] Group 3 - The influx of new money is primarily directed towards production, resulting in supply exceeding demand, which contributes to deflationary pressures [3][4] - Exporting companies are retaining foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] - The trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, while foreign currency deposits increased by 146.3 billion USD, indicating that a substantial amount of foreign currency is not returning to the domestic economy [4] Group 4 - The challenge is to encourage the repatriation of these foreign funds, with past methods like mandatory currency conversion being less viable due to the large trade volume [4] - The strategy now focuses on enhancing the capital market, particularly the Hong Kong stock market, to attract these funds back [4][5] - The rise of digital assets and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong aims to create a more attractive environment for both foreign and repatriated funds [4] Group 5 - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may drive funds away from USD assets towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly quality enterprises [5] - For investors, there is a long-term opportunity in Hong Kong stocks, and it is advised to align asset allocation with market trends rather than against them [5]

1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,323.07 on July 22, 2025, down 19.12 points or 0.043% from the previous trading day [2]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index closed at 20,974.17, up 78.51 points or 0.376% [2]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,305.60, up 8.81 points or 0.140% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,994.14, up 168.48 points or 0.679% [2]. - COMEX gold futures rose 1.633% to $3,410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.121% to $39.24 per ounce [2]. - LME copper futures rose 0.740% to $9,867.00 per ton, and LME aluminum futures rose 0.114% to $2,641.00 per ton [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24, 2025 [7]. - The State Council of China has announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will come into effect on September 15, 2025 [7]. - China's LPR remained unchanged in July 2025, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [7]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has released detailed rules for cross - border asset management pilot projects, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term but maintain a downward trend, with a continued weak supply - demand pattern [10]. - The oil market is expected to be volatile, with Brazil's soybean exports in July expected to increase by 24% year - on - year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 up 5.31% month - on - month [10]. - Sugar futures rose slightly on July 21, with a narrow - range volatile trend. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the decline of US sugar prices restricts the rebound space of domestic sugar prices [10]. - Corn futures rose on July 21. The price has broken through the key resistance level of 2,300 yuan. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but beware of callback risks [10]. - Pig prices have been falling, and the supply in the next 2 - 3 months is expected to remain abundant, with futures prices remaining volatile [13]. - Egg prices are rising, with short - term upward adjustment space due to factors such as reduced production rates in high - temperature weather and increased demand from food factories [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda prices rose on Monday. Although the supply is increasing, the cost support is strong. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure range of 2,600 - 2,700 yuan/ton [13]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 1,720 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, but there is still support from autumn fertilizer demand and export expectations [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range. The US - EU agreement and the upcoming stable - growth plan for non - ferrous metals provide support, but demand has weakened [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Although relevant domestic policies have boosted prices, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong [15]. - Alumina prices rebounded strongly on Monday and are expected to continue to operate strongly in the short term [15]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the release of stable - growth work plans for key industries and positive macro - atmosphere [15]. - Ferroalloy prices are expected to have upward space in the short term, but in the long term, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [15]. 3.4 Options and Finance - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on July 21. The ChiNext Index is approaching last year's high, small - cap stock indices are hitting new highs, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the previous high [16]. - The "anti - involution" sector is fermenting, and the future cycle stock market is worth paying attention to. It is recommended to focus on IF, IM, and IC low - buying opportunities [17]. - For option investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility [19].