1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - **Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity: +2)**: None - **Bullish (Trend Intensity: +1)**: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Bean Meal [49][185] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Platinum, Palladium, MEG, Logs, PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Hogs, Peanuts [16][19][81][185] - **Bearish (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Carbonate Lithium, Platinum, Palladium [42][52] - **Strongly Bearish (Trend Intensity: -2)**: None 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Macroeconomic Policy The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7]. 2.2 Commodity Market - **Silver**: Although there is a short - term adjustment demand at high levels, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the unsolvable global inventory contradiction. There is a possibility of intensified contradictions until 2026 [8]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental situation is weak, but news and capital disturbances are intensifying. There is a risk of a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. There are also structural opportunities, such as internal - external positive spreads and nickel - iron and futures spreads [10]. - **MEG**: Affected by the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant next month, the price increased. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Central Bank Policy**: The Q4 2025 meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee decided to continue the moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [7]. - **Recommended by the Director**: Silver is highly recommended, with recent price fluctuations driven by macro - liquidity and the performance of platinum and palladium. Nickel has a weak fundamental situation but potential for a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. MEG rose due to the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant [8][10][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [16]. - **Silver**: High - level adjustment is expected, with a long - term upward trend supported by inventory contradictions [8]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is strong overseas but weak domestically, limiting price increases [23]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [26]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price [29]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted [32]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, while alumina is at the bottom and moving sideways [36]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - **Nickel**: There is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [44]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news [45]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, and the price trend is upward [81]. - **MEG**: The valuation has bottomed out and rebounded, but there is medium - term pressure [82]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly [83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is entering an oscillating phase with weak current situation and strong expectations [86]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable [89]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is a short - term rebound, but the height is limited [177]. - **Soybean Oil**: The impact of US soybeans is limited, and range - bound operation is recommended [177]. - **Bean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose, and Dalian bean meal may rebound and oscillate [183]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [186]. - **Sugar**: There is an expectation of a weak basis [190]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [195]. - **Eggs**: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [202]. - **Hogs**: Speculative demand has been fulfilled [204]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [209].

12月24日央行公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月25日央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 因本月有3000亿元MLF到期，12月央行MLF净投放为1000亿元，为连续第十个月加量续作，符合市场预期。 考虑到本月央行还净投放2000亿元买断式逆回购，这意味着12月中期流动性净投放总额达到3000亿元，较上月减少3000亿元。 谈及12月MLF与买断式逆回购合计净投放中期流动性规模较上月减少3000亿元，在业内人士看来，这一方面源于当月政府债券净融资规模较前期有所下 降，另一方面也不排除2026年一季度央行实施降准、向市场注入较大规模长期流动性的可能。 展望2026年，中央经济工作会议要求，"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 东方金诚研究部判断，2026央行还会通过各类流动性工具搭配组合，适时向市场注入短中长期流动性，引导资金面处于稳定的充裕状态。这不仅会继续助 力政府债券顺利发行，引导金融机构加大信贷投放，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力的信号， ...

央行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会提出 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 用好证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款 维护资本市场稳定 会议强调，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会和中央 经济工作会议精神，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式 现代化，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局。把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位 置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 会议认为，今年以来宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调节， 综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。贷 款市场报价利率改革效能持续释放，存款利率市场化调整机制作用有效发挥，货币政策传导效率增强， 社会融资成本处于历史较低水平。外汇市场供求基本平衡，外汇储备充足，人民币汇率双向浮动，在合 理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。金融市场总体运行平稳。 会议分析了国内外经济金 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries (2025 Edition)," effective from February 1, 2026 [1] - The State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments launched a special governance action plan for the quality and safety of industrial products sold online, aiming to enhance the quality and safety standards of these products [1] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments proposed 21 financial support measures to promote the high-quality development of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [1] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in November reached 8,356 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] - Central enterprises achieved a value-added of 9.5 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3] - Beijing's housing authorities announced adjustments to real estate policies, easing purchasing conditions for non-local families and supporting multi-child households [3] Group 3 - Sanya's duty-free shops reported cumulative sales of 535 million yuan from November 18 to 22, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.3% [4] - The completion of the Beitian Mountain Tunnel, a key project on the G577 highway, will significantly reduce travel time across the Tianshan North Range to approximately 15 minutes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to address the challenges posed by the changing external environment and to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] Economic Analysis - The meeting analyzed both domestic and international economic and financial conditions, noting that the external environment is increasingly volatile, with insufficient growth momentum in the global economy and rising trade barriers [1] - There is a divergence in economic performance among major economies, and uncertainties exist regarding inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [1] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's economy is generally stable and progressing, achieving new results in high-quality development, but still faces significant challenges such as a pronounced imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [1] - The PBOC aims to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, leveraging both the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools [1] Policy Recommendations - The PBOC calls for strengthened coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to better support economic stability and price recovery [1]

会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，认为当前外部环境变化影响加深，世界经济增长动能不足，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体 经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，但 仍面临供强需弱矛盾突出等问题和挑战。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策 工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策调控， 根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货 币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场 化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情 况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率。增强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期，防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 10 to 11, focusing on the current economic situation and key tasks for the new "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy for the first time this year, with a deficit level and scale at the highest in recent years, increasing the deficit rate to around 4% and the deficit scale to 5.66 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [4][5] - The total issuance of government bonds in 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, including 4.4 trillion yuan in government bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds [4] Group 2 - The fiscal policy will continue to be proactive next year, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure while optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure [5][6] - The government aims to enhance the effectiveness and precision of fiscal spending, focusing on major national strategic financial support and increasing investment in people's livelihoods, domestic demand, and long-term growth [5][6] - The monetary policy will be moderately loose, with the central bank having implemented a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates for the first time in 14 years, and plans to continue this approach next year [8][10] Group 3 - The social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [11] - The new lending rates for corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased by approximately 40 basis points and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively [11] - The monetary policy will focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [12][14] Group 4 - The government will enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macro policies, integrating economic and non-economic policies, as well as stock and incremental policies, to ensure coordinated efforts across various policy measures [17] - The emphasis on "seeking progress while maintaining stability" continues as the overall guideline for economic work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [20]

中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第四季度例会 中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第四季度（总第111次）例会于12月18日召开。 会议指出，要引导大型银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚焦主责主业，增强银行 资本实力，共同维护金融市场的稳定发展。有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇 大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。用好证券、基金、保险公 司互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，探索常态化的制度安排，维护资本市场稳定。持续做好支持民营经 济发展壮大的金融服务。切实推进金融高水平双向开放，提高开放条件下经济金融管理能力和风险防控 能力。 会议强调，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会和中央 经济工作会议精神，按照党中央、国务院的决策部署，牢牢把握高质量发展首要任务，扎实推进中国式 现代化，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局。把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位 置，统筹好总供给和总需求的关系，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize the economy amidst external uncertainties and domestic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC has increased macroeconomic regulation efforts this year, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for stable economic growth [1]. - The loan market quotation rate reform is showing positive effects, and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates is functioning effectively, leading to lower social financing costs historically [1]. - The external economic environment is increasingly challenging, with insufficient global economic growth momentum and rising trade barriers, while domestic economic performance remains stable but faces issues such as strong supply and weak demand [1][2]. Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The upcoming monetary policy will focus on integrating incremental and stock policies, utilizing various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation based on domestic and international economic conditions [2]. - Maintaining ample liquidity is crucial, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve the efficiency of fund utilization [2]. Group 3: Financial Sector Support and Stability - Large banks are encouraged to play a leading role in providing financial services to the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [3]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3]. - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of financial services for the development of the private economy and aims to enhance financial openness and risk management capabilities [3].