周四(8月7日)，因特朗普关税措施生效，以及美国疲软就业数据提高降息预期，避险需求提高，黄金价格在此前一个交 易日下跌后大幅上涨。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 现货黄金周四收盘大涨26.05美元，涨幅0.77%，报3395.30美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，随着美国最新一轮就业数据显示劳动力市场疲软，黄金价格周四逆转走势，录得强劲涨幅。因此，随着 美联储预计将在9月份恢复其宽松周期，投资者增加鸽派押注。 Valencia称，美国持续申请失业救济人数达到2021年11月以来的水平，助长美联储的鸽派押注。随着通胀持续高企，而 美国就业疲软，滞胀风险显现。 美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，续请失业金人数增加3.8万人，达到197万人。该数据在高位表明失 业人员找到新工作的难度加大。上周初请失业金人数也上升至22.6万，高于经济学家的预期。 Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，这些数据支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期。 上周，美国疲软的非农业就业数据提振降息预期。 根据Prime Mar ...

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $1900, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][2] - Bullish sentiment is supported by weak global economic data, particularly China's manufacturing PMI at 48.8, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Bearish pressure arises from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal, with a clear breakout above a long-term resistance channel [3] - A W-bottom pattern is forming, particularly around the $24 support level, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The gold-silver ratio is declining from approximately 85 to 80, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite and a shift towards more aggressive assets like silver [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver demand is surging due to significant growth in the photovoltaic industry (over 30% year-on-year) and a 15% increase in demand from electric vehicle battery applications [4] - The combination of industrial demand and the perception of silver being undervalued is fueling the current bullish trend in the silver market [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For gold investors, a patient approach is advised, utilizing a strategy of light positions and opportunistic trading around the $1900-$1910 range, with close monitoring of potential breakout points above $1950 [5] - Silver investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips, particularly around the $24.2-$24.5 support level, with protective stop-losses set below $24 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Current gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including a weak dollar, rising interest rate expectations, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [5][6][8]. International Gold Prices - Spot gold is reported at $3,379.73 per ounce as of August 6, showing a 0.18% increase from the previous day [1]. - COMEX gold futures are priced at $3,435 per ounce, reflecting a 0.25% rise [2]. Domestic Gold Prices - In the Shenzhen market, retail prices range from 756 to 780 yuan per gram, with minimal fluctuations noted [3]. - Major brand stores, such as Chow Tai Fook, quote prices at 1,015 yuan per gram as of August 7, with additional processing fees [4]. Recent Price Increases - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 90%, with an expected total reduction of 100 basis points for the year, contributing to a weaker dollar and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has heightened recession fears [6]. - Increased trade tensions, such as the Trump administration's tariffs on semiconductors, have escalated global trade friction [7]. - Tensions in the Middle East, particularly missile launches from Iran towards Israel, have driven demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 1,045 tons in 2024, with China increasing its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices [9]. Market Reactions and Consumer Sentiment - Consumer behavior is showing a "buy high, not low" mentality, with sales increasing during price rises; for instance, a Shenzhen retailer reported a 30%-40% drop in sales after a price decrease [10]. - The psychological price point for consumers is concentrated around 600-700 yuan per gram, indicating that current prices are still above expectations [11]. Investment Trends - Asian buyers are actively purchasing physical gold, particularly in emerging markets, indicating stable demand [12]. - U.S. investors are cashing out, leading to a decrease in gold premiums as some funds realize profits at high levels [13]. Future Price Predictions - Short-term volatility is anticipated, with technical resistance levels between $3,380 and $3,400 per ounce; a breakthrough could push prices towards $3,500 [14]. - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as expected or if geopolitical risks ease, gold prices may retreat to a support level of $3,350 [15]. - Long-term bullish outlooks suggest that due to weakened dollar credibility, global stagflation risks, and continued central bank purchases, gold prices could enter a bull market range of $2,600 to $3,800 per ounce. Citibank has raised its target price to $3,500 per ounce, predicting a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 [16]. Practical Recommendations - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid high leverage in gold futures and paper gold products due to high risks [17]. - Diversification is recommended, with physical gold constituting no more than 5% of household assets, in reference to the central bank's 15% foreign exchange reserve ratio [18]. - Regular investments in gold ETFs, such as Bosera Gold, can help mitigate risks [19]. Consumer and Recycling Insights - For essential buyers (e.g., weddings, gifts), current prices are more favorable compared to earlier highs of approximately 1,200 yuan per gram, making it a good time to purchase [20]. - The resale value of ordinary gold jewelry is about 10 yuan per gram, while high-weight gold bars have a lower discount of 2-3 yuan per gram [21].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and trade tariffs [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a continuous increase for nine months [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may reach new historical highs due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, emphasizing its international pricing power and the growing demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce measures for key industries [4] - As of July 31, 27 out of 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index forecasted positive earnings for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational resilience [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals index is currently at a historically low price-to-book ratio of 2.36, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] - The sector's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment opportunity [6]

换资前言： 技术面来看，近期黄金多空博弈激烈，价格虽短线有所突破，但整体仍维持于3400 - 3370的宽幅震荡格 局。正如我们强调的那样，黄金大扫荡行情依然会持续；昨日黄金走势再次证明了这一点，接下来大扫 荡依然会继续；只是，月线连续4个交易月冲高回落，上影线连续排列，四根天线天线宝宝，我们更倾 向于冲高下跌，并且是中线级别的下跌；目前唯一不确定的是刺破3400大关下跌，还是多头奔赴历史新 高后下跌！今日早盘，黄金高开于3403一线，盘中波动剧烈，先冲高至3406后回落至3396，随后又快速 拉升至3409，再跌至3382，如此大幅震荡，实为市场多空力量的激烈碰撞与洗礼。究其背后动因，关税 消息仍是关键推手。 具体走势而言，昨天黄金延续了亚盘震荡回落，欧盘扫荡，美盘探底大涨的规律；我们最近一直强调， 黄金很大可能要冲击3400大关，比较看好3405~10区域，但是能否多头强势，那要看日线是否站上3400 大关。从昨天收盘来看，并没有站上3400大关，今天估计要打破运行规律。今日早盘黄金一度围绕3400 扫荡，在冲击3409后迎来快跌，目前于3380附近震荡。我们需要注意的是，最近黄金市场大部分消息是 利多， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes increased short - term trade agreement disputes leading to rising risk - aversion demand, and growing stagflation risks in the US economy with weakening employment and a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. Currently, there are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals are volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.10%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.07% [1]. - **Core Logic** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: Trump's new round of tariffs triggered a global stock - market crash, and many countries sought renegotiation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India, and Russian oil and geopolitics led to an escalation of trade conflicts [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor - market situation. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased from about 40% before the non - farm data to around 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year rose from 1 to 2. Many Fed officials signaled growing concerns about economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to fall under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Gold and London Gold, and ratios such as the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex gold, Shanghai Gold main contract, and Gold T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showed different trends [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [3]. Silver - **Core Relationship**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Current Situation**: There are small reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF in terms of capital, and a small increase in the visible inventory of silver [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary** - **Prices**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver, and domestic prices like Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D showed different changes compared to the previous day and week [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads between Shanghai Silver and London Silver had corresponding changes [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Positions in Comex silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D, as well as inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai Silver Exchange, and the total visible inventory, showed different trends [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had specific data and changes [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Key Indicators** - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, with a decrease of 0.25 compared to the previous value; the Fed's total assets are 6692.931 billion US dollars, a decrease of 16.008 billion US dollars (- 0.00%) [8]. - M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.54%, an increase of 0.37 [8]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, with a daily increase of 0.02 (0.81%) and a weekly decrease of 0.04 (- 1.57%) [8]. - US dollar index is 98.23, a daily decrease of 0.54 (- 0.54%) and a weekly decrease of 1.72 (- 1.72%) [8]. - Other indicators such as US Treasury yield spreads, inflation rates (CPI, core CPI), economic growth indicators (GDP), labor - market indicators, real - estate market indicators, consumption indicators, industrial indicators, trade indicators, and economic survey indicators also have specific data and changes [8][10]. - **Safe - Haven Attribute** - Geopolitical risk index is 123.07, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 77.02 (- 38.49%) [11]. - VIX index is 16.39, a daily decrease of 0.38 (- 2.27%) and a weekly decrease of 0.33 (- 1.97%) [11]. - **Commodity Attribute** - CRB commodity index is 293.13, a daily decrease of 0.20 (- 0.07%) and a weekly decrease of 6.65 (- 2.22%) [11]. - Offshore RMB is 7.1930, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0063 (- 0.09%) [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves** - China's central - bank gold reserve is 2300.41 tons, an increase of 4.04 tons (0.18%) [10]. - US central - bank gold reserve is 8133.46 tons, with no change [11]. - Global central - bank gold reserve is 36268.07 tons, with no change [11]. - **IMF Foreign - Exchange Reserves and Gold/Reserves Ratio** - The proportion of the US dollar in IMF foreign - exchange reserves is 57.80%, an increase of 0.51 (0.88%) [11]. - The proportion of the euro is 19.83%, a decrease of 0.20 (- 0.99%) [11]. - The proportion of the RMB is 2.18%, a decrease of 0.00 (- 0.04%) [11]. - The global gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 22.18%, an increase of 0.88 (4.11%) [11]. - China's gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 6.78%, an increase of 0.29 (4.40%) [11]. - The US gold/foreign - exchange reserves ratio is 78.64%, an increase of 0.67 (0.86%) [11]. - **Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations** - The probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various Fed meetings from 2025/9/17 to 2026/12/9 are provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [12].

来源：张志专栏 隔夜消息面满天飞，受影响最大的要数国际油价了。 贵金属方面， 昨天有一条消息引发市场关注，据媒体报道，上海期货交易所相关仓库的黄金库存已跃升至历史新高，超过36吨金条/块已注册用于期货合约交 割，这一数量在过去一个月内几乎翻倍。库存激增主要源于期货需求强劲推动的套利交易热潮。 美国总统TRUMP称，特使威特科夫当天和俄罗斯总统的会晤"取得了重大进展"，将在未来几天和几周内为结束俄乌战争努力，与小泽和普丁举行 峰会的可能性较大。但保留了针对俄油进一步采取惩罚性措施的可能。白宫称俄方表达了同特朗普会面的愿望。 大量黄金被注册进交割库，意味着市场上可交割的实物黄金供给增加，如果未来有大量期货合约到期交割，将增加市场短期内的实际黄金供应， 从而 抑制价格上涨 ，属于偏利空信号；但中长期黄金走势仍取决于宏观环境、利率政策与避险需求，库存变化本身并不决定黄金大趋势。 于此同时，老特还签署了一项行政命令，将印度石油关税提高一倍至50%，新的税率将于21天内生效。 他还声称对另一个购买俄石油的国家征收关税。 一方面跟卖家会谈，一方面打压买家的，这油价就直接崩了。国际原油连续第五个交易日走低。WTI原油失守64 ...

避险需求与市场情绪的博弈黄金作为传统避险资产，其价格通常受到全球经济不确定性和地缘政治风险 的支撑。近期，市场对美国经济放缓的担忧有所加剧，尤其是7月就业数据远低于预期，且前两月数据 被大幅下修，显示出劳动力市场的疲软信号。这不仅推高了黄金的避险需求，也促使市场对美联储货币 政策的预期发生转变。然而，随着部分投资者获利了结，避险情绪有所降温，金价的上涨动能暂时受 阻。Meger进一步指出，黄金市场当前处于一种平衡状态，既受到经济放缓的支撑，又因短期获利了结 而承压，未来走势将取决于新的经济数据和地缘政治事件的演变。 特朗普宣布对俄追加二级制裁8月6日，特朗普表示将对俄罗斯实施更多二级制裁。此前，他于7月29日 设下10天期限，要求俄乌达成和平协议，否则将施加新制裁。目前，谈判期限定为8月8日。综合来看， 黄金市场短期内可能继续受到获利了结和技术性回调的压力，但美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险以及美 元走弱为金价提供了坚实的长期支撑。市场对9月降息的押注已接近确定，美联储决策者的鸽派表态进 一步强化了这一预期。此外，特朗普的关税政策和美联储人事调整的不确定性将继续为黄金提供避险溢 价。然而，若美债收益率持续走高或全 ...

此外，美联储理事库克担忧7月就业报告预示经济转折点。在波士顿联储研讨活动中，他指出数据修订 有转折特征。上周数据显示劳动力市场明显降温，7月非农新增仅7.3万，前两月数据大幅下修近26万， 失业率微升至4.2%。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.4%，降息25个基点的概率为93.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为64%。 据消息，当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普宣布将针对芯片及半导体产品征收近乎100%的高额关税， 并承诺若在美国本土生产则免税。同日，知情人士称，特朗普告知欧洲领导人其计划下周与俄罗斯总统 普京举行双边会晤，之后还将安排美、俄、乌三方会谈，且不邀请其他欧洲国家代表参与。白宫证实俄 方有会面意愿，特朗普对此持开放态度，但地点未定。随着8月8日俄乌和谈截止日期逼近，美国加大对 俄施压力度，除即将实施更多二级制裁外，特朗普还以印度采购俄油为由，签署行政命令对其输美商品 加征25%关税，此举被视为向俄施压的又一举措。 【黄金期货行情表现】 8月7日，沪金主力暂报783.68元/克，跌幅达0.07%，今 ...