2025/7/8 13:34 【国富期货早间看点】ITS 7 5 31.59% USDA 66% 20250708 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 4063.00 | 0. 20 | -0. 17 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 69. 60 | 1. 59 | 0. 59 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 67.92 | 1.10 | 0. 46 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1020. 75 | -2. 62 | -0. 15 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 286. 40 | -2.05 | -0. 35 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 53. 85 | -1.27 | 0. 45 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.53 | 0. 57 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1506 | -0. 04 | | 马来林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2134 | -0. ...

以下文章来源于最话 FunTalk ，作者最话团队 最话 FunTalk . 不写平庸的故事 本文来自微信公众号： 最话 FunTalk ，作者： 何伊然，编辑：刘宇翔 过去三个月，互联网行业迎来了久违的热闹。美团、京东、淘宝轰轰烈烈地搞起了外卖 " 三国杀 " 。 在此番大战中，外卖业务所背负的想象空间已经超过了一日三餐，摇身一变成了依托于本地生活的 " 30 分钟即时零售 " 战场，是打通线上和线下的巨大流量入口。 尽管官方下场明确要求各家公司不能用低价倾销扰乱市场秩序，可是这场 " 三国杀 " 不见降温的迹 象， 反倒从 " 闪电战 " 转化为了 " 持久战 " 。 相比之下 ，大洋彼岸的 美国外卖市场波澜不惊， " 美国 版 美团 " DoorDash 日子显得轻松许多，不 仅没有新冒头的竞争对手，继续稳坐美国外卖市场第一名，还在今年以 38.6 亿美元的价格收购了英 国外卖平台 Deliveroo ，进入 12 个欧洲国家。 看似 " 自由竞争 " 的美国反而没那么多 " 商战 " ，各个细分市场无一例外都有一家垄断级的巨头， 占据了绝对市场份额，由此在资本市场上获得极高溢价。 各家巨头为了维持股价 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the intensifying competition among major food delivery platforms, particularly between Meituan and Taobao Flash Purchase, which has led to significant consumer discounts and a surge in order volume [1][9][11] - Starting from July 5, consumers have been receiving large, no-threshold discount coupons, resulting in extremely low prices for food items, with some consumers humorously noting they might "overeat" due to the discounts [1][5] - On July 5, Meituan reported a record-breaking order volume, surpassing 1.2 billion orders for the day, with over 1 billion being food orders, marking a significant increase from the previous year's peak of over 90 million orders [5][11] Group 2 - The surge in orders has led to operational challenges for delivery riders and restaurant staff, with reports of overwhelming order volumes causing some restaurants to temporarily pause operations to manage the influx [6][8] - Taobao Flash Purchase initiated a subsidy plan worth 50 billion yuan to stimulate consumer spending, which is seen as a catalyst for the current competitive landscape in the food delivery market [9][10] - The competition has escalated to a point where major platforms are vying for market share, with Meituan still leading but facing increasing pressure from Taobao Flash Purchase and JD.com, which has also seen significant growth in order volume [11][12]

Overall Summary - The offline retail consumption situation for Q2 2025 shows a general decline in sales across major categories such as food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2][4][6]. Group 1: Retail Performance Overview - The analysis is based on data from the "Shangma Ying Brand CT," which monitors offline retail across various city levels and includes over 30,000 brands and 14 million product barcodes [2]. - The overall sales revenue for Q2 2025 is down approximately 7% year-on-year, with a better performance in order volume compared to average spending, indicating consumer pressure on budgets and prices [4][6]. - The price index for food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals shows a gradual recovery, but remains under pressure, with most categories below the baseline index of 100 [4][6]. Group 2: Key Category Insights - In the food category, frozen products like frozen sausages have shown significant market share growth, while dairy products are stabilizing after previous declines [13][22]. - The beverage category has seen strong growth in sports and plant-based drinks, with some products exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, although the overall market remains competitive [17][29]. - The snack category is experiencing a decline in market share due to health trends and new retail formats, with significant drops in sales for various subcategories [14][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average spending per order has increased for certain categories like ready-to-drink juices and plant-based beverages, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [34][35]. - The average purchase quantity per order has decreased across all selected categories, suggesting a trend towards larger packaging or a focus on value [40]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the frozen food and beverage sectors, with numerous brands vying for market share [46][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that in June, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the overall passenger car market in China reached 53.3%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In June, the penetration rate of NEVs among domestic independent brands was 75.4% [1] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the luxury car segment was 30.3% [1] - The penetration rate of NEVs among mainstream joint venture brands was only 5.3% [1]

中国乘联分会：6月新能源车市场零售111.1万辆，同比增29.7%。 ...

Core Insights - In June, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.7% [1] Industry Summary - The data indicates a strong upward trend in the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market, reflecting increasing consumer demand and market penetration [1] - The growth rate of 29.7% suggests a robust expansion in the new energy vehicle sector, which may be driven by favorable government policies and advancements in technology [1]

乘联分会：中国6月狭义乘用车零售销量同比增长18.1%。 ...

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Core Insights - The summer surge in food delivery orders has been unexpected, with Meituan reaching a peak of over 120 million daily orders on July 5, while Taobao Flash reported over 80 million orders on the same day [1][5][12] - The competition among major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com is intensifying, focusing on the "instant retail" market, with significant consumer engagement driven by subsidies [1][5][15] - Despite the surge in order volumes, there is a lack of corresponding increase in physical store activity, indicating a potential disconnect between online and offline demand [1][6][12] Company Strategies - Taobao Flash announced a direct subsidy plan of 50 billion yuan over the next 12 months to boost consumer and merchant engagement [5][12] - JD.com has reported that nearly 200 restaurant brands have surpassed one million orders on its platform within four months of launching its food delivery service [5][12] - The competition is characterized by high subsidy levels, raising questions about the sustainability of such strategies and the true demand for instant retail [5][12][15] Market Dynamics - The increase in order volumes is attributed to consumer behavior changes due to hot weather and ongoing platform subsidies [6][12] - The number of cities with daily orders exceeding one million has doubled in the past week, with some cities experiencing order growth of up to 300% [7][12] - The delivery workforce is expanding, with JD.com planning to recruit an additional 150,000 full-time riders [11][12] Future Outlook - The "flash battle" in food delivery is becoming a regular occurrence, with both Meituan and Taobao Flash achieving their order volume goals [12][15] - Analysts suggest that while the current competition is fierce, the long-term impact of subsidies on market structure may be minimal [12][15] - The ongoing battle for market share in instant retail is expected to continue, with companies leveraging their existing logistics and consumer bases to enhance service offerings [15][17]