Core Insights - The report highlights the significant short-term market disturbance effects caused by Trump's public statements, particularly regarding trade and the Federal Reserve, necessitating risk aversion strategies [1][2] - It emphasizes that while Trump's rhetoric increases policy uncertainty, long-term market trends remain driven by economic fundamentals, with the market gradually adapting to his communication style [1][2] Group 1: Trump's Influence on Market Sentiment - The report discusses the construction of a "Trump Trading Sentiment Index" using AI tools to analyze Trump's public statements and their impact on market sentiment [2] - It notes that since August 2024, Trump's sentiment index showed a trend of rising optimism followed by a decline, correlating with the election cycle and policy adjustment expectations [2][38] Group 2: Policy Focus Areas - Trump's second term policy statements focus on federal government operations and economic issues, with a strong emphasis on "America First" [1][20] - The report outlines key areas of Trump's policy focus, including economic protectionism, immigration, national security, and climate energy policies, reflecting a more aggressive stance compared to his first term [26][27] Group 3: Market Reactions to Trump's Statements - The report details the Volfefe Index, which quantifies the impact of Trump's tweets on market sentiment, showing a strong negative correlation with stock market performance during periods of heightened policy uncertainty [15][16] - It provides historical examples of significant market reactions to Trump's statements, illustrating the volatility induced by his rhetoric [15][16] Group 4: AI Tools in Analyzing Market Sentiment - The report describes the use of AI tools like DeepSeek, KIMI, and Manus to quantify Trump's statements and their emotional impact on market sentiment [24][25] - It highlights the methodology for analyzing Trump's tweets, including sentiment scoring and the correlation with market movements, demonstrating the effectiveness of AI in financial analysis [27][28][31]

Group 1 - The San Francisco Fed President Daly observed significant economic performance disparities across different regions in the U.S., with Las Vegas concerned about reduced international tourism, while states like Utah and Alaska maintain robust economic activity [3] - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a "divided" state regarding the economic outlook, with Daly expressing optimism about the economy's strength and declining inflation, while Vice Chair Jefferson warns of declining confidence among businesses and households [3] - Jefferson highlighted that if Trump's tariff policies continue to escalate, it could hinder the decline in inflation and potentially lead to rising prices again, indicating increasing uncertainty within the Fed regarding future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3155.90 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.78%, with a daily high of $3195.60 and a low of $3150.90 [4] - The short-term resistance levels for COMEX gold are identified between $3358 and $3368, while support levels are noted between $3130 and $3140 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of the hedge fund company Point72, Steven Cohen, believes that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down due to tariff threats [1] Economic Outlook - Cohen stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take immediate action as it remains concerned about inflation issues stemming from tariffs [1] - He projected that the U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% next year [1]

周三，美国总统特朗普再度点评市场。他最新表示，美国财长贝森特很好，数字让他看起来更好，他懂市场，贝森特一上电视，一切都要涨。 特朗普谈财长贝森特讲话/公开露面对于市场的作用。特朗普此番讲话后，美股短线小幅拉涨，维持日内涨势。至此，美股已连续三个交易日上涨。美元/瑞郎 日内涨幅达0.5%，报0.843。 贝森特当日讲话谈及贸易谈判。 本周二，标普500指数收复年内失地之际，特朗普表示，一个月前，各家公司还对我不满意，但随着市场上涨，他们的态度改变了。市场上涨真 是太美妙了。它还会继续涨，涨得高的多。 不过需要注意的是，特朗普本周二和周三点评美股，并未引起美股此前在低位时的拉涨效应。周三标普500指数仅勉强小幅上涨。 1) 卖力向投资者兜售美国经济的长期增长潜力 当地时间5月5日，面对市场动荡和国际社会对美国的质疑声浪，贝森特卖力向投资者兜售美国经济的长期增长潜力，呼吁他们押注美国，驳斥"抛售美国"的主 题。贝森特称： 此外，媒体周三援引知情人士报道称，美国不会在贸易协议中寻求美元贬值。财政部长贝森特是唯一负责处理这些问题的成员，未委派他人进行货币政策磋 商，仅在贝森特在场时才可谈判。美元指数短线拉升大约20点， ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月15日电 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson)在周三的讲话中表示，尽管最新 数据显示美国正在逐步接近2%的通胀目标，然而未来通胀走势依旧充满变数。特别是，新一轮进口关 税措施可能成为推高物价的风险因素。 关于货币政策方向，杰斐逊重申了他在最近一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC)会议上支持保持利率不 变的观点。他认为，目前设定在4.25%-4.5%之间的"适度限制性"政策利率为应对未来的经济变化提供了 良好的基础。 此外，他还提到美国劳动力市场的稳定状态，并解释第一季度GDP轻微收缩主要是由于进口数据异常所 致，而非经济放缓的真实反映。尽管如此，他也注意到企业和家庭信心的下滑，表示会密切注意实际经 济活动中的任何疲软迹象。 杰斐逊预计美国经济增长将有所放缓，但仍将维持正增长。他回顾了特朗普政府时期加征关税的历史及 其带来的不确定性，这些都给美联储评估关税对物价、经济增长和就业的影响带来了困难。 编辑：崔凯 在其于纽约联储活动中发表的演讲中，杰斐逊指出4月份消费者价格指数涨幅低于市场预期，这标志着 一个积极的趋势。但他也警告称，如果当前宣布的关税政策得以实施 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan's strategists, led by Jay Barry, have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4% [1] - The forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of the year has also been increased to 3.5%, previously estimated at 3% [1] - The easing of trade tensions initiated by President Trump is expected to benefit U.S. economic growth, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, stated that the FOMC's monetary policy is prepared to respond to the economic situation in the United States [1] Group 1 - The FOMC is ready to adjust its monetary policy based on the evolving economic conditions in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent global risk aversion has decreased, leading to significant fluctuations in international gold prices, with key resistance at $3250 per ounce and a drop below $3230 per ounce observed [1][2]. Market Trends - On May 14, the London spot gold price fell to below $3230 per ounce, reaching a low of $3221.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures also dropped below $3230 per ounce [2]. - Domestic jewelry gold prices have also declined, with prices for gold jewelry falling below 1000 yuan per gram, specifically to 992 yuan per gram for Zhou Shiliu and 980 yuan per gram for Caibai [2]. Investment Flows - In April, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of $11 billion, with Asia accounting for 65% of the total inflow, primarily driven by the Chinese market, which saw inflows surpassing the total for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Trading Activity - April recorded an average daily trading volume of $441 billion in gold markets, a 48% increase month-on-month, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) seeing a 31% increase in off-exchange trading volume [4]. - As of the end of April, net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 30% to 566 tons, with fund managers' net long positions dropping to 360 tons, a 35% decline from the average level in 2024 [4]. Short-term Outlook - Market sentiment is cautious regarding short-term gold price movements, with expectations of a potential adjustment as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Analysts predict that while short-term pressures exist, the risk of U.S. economic recession may lead to a shift towards looser monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting a medium-term upward trend in gold prices [4][5]. Long-term Projections - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of $3700 per ounce and predictions from other analysts suggesting potential increases to $4000 per ounce [5]. - Factors such as declining confidence in U.S. assets, concerns over economic recession, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices in the long run [5].

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...

Group 1 - Investors are assessing the US economic conditions under moderate inflation and recent trade agreements, leading to a slight increase in US Treasury prices and a decline in yields [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.6 basis points to 4.011%, the 10-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.475%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 2.5 basis points to 4.918% [1] - Mortgage demand in the US has risen for the second consecutive week, indicating that potential buyers are attracted by the increased supply of homes for sale [3] Group 2 - The average contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.84% to 6.86%, which is 22 basis points higher than the same period last year [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 2.3% year-on-year, which is below economists' expectations of 2.4% and reflects the lowest level since February 2021 [3] - Housing costs were the main driver of inflation in April, despite a decrease in gasoline prices [3] Group 3 - Economists are looking for early signs of tariffs affecting US households, as tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation data is still not fully reflected and may become apparent by June [4] - The UK central bank's chief economist expressed concerns that inflation in the UK may be stronger than expected, potentially requiring higher interest rates than investors anticipate [5] Group 4 - The US Treasury is set to issue a $60 billion 17-week short-term debt on May 14, with additional bonds totaling $160 billion to be issued on May 15 [7]