Group 1 - Spot gold prices surged, breaking through $4700, reaching a new historical high of $4698.257 per ounce, with an increase of 0.62% [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen over 8% [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have continued to rise, with multiple brands quoting prices above 1450 RMB per gram; for instance, Chow Sang Sang quoted 1454 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB over two days [3] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set new records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Huatai Securities identified three main reasons for the rise in precious metals: geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand, rising industrial demand for silver due to AI development, and the ongoing easing cycle of the Federal Reserve [5] - Dongwu Futures noted that recent U.S. tariffs on European countries have heightened safe-haven sentiment, benefiting precious metals [5] - Zhongcai Futures indicated that gold and silver still have upward potential due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence [5][6] Group 4 - In the medium to long term, the continuation of the Federal Reserve's easing process and rising fiscal deficits are expected to support gold prices, while silver may face high tariffs, benefiting its price [6] - The uncertain global trade and inflation environment, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term supply-demand gap for silver, suggest a bullish outlook for precious metals [6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell plans to attend an oral argument at the U.S. Supreme Court regarding whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [2][4] - Powell is currently under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office for Washington, D.C., related to a multi-billion dollar renovation project at the Federal Reserve headquarters and associated congressional testimony [4] - The issue of whether the President can dismiss a Federal Reserve governor in the manner attempted by Trump is viewed internally at the Federal Reserve as a fundamental question concerning the survival of the central bank [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a sell-off, exacerbated by concerns over the long-term fiscal situation in Washington, as the U.S. threatens to impose tariffs related to Greenland, weakening demand for U.S. assets [5] - Following a holiday market closure, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by at least 3 basis points during Asian trading hours [8] - The sell-off in U.S. Treasuries has led to a weaker dollar, providing strong support for gold prices [8]

1月9日 美国司法部向美联储发出大陪审团传票，美国持续数月的政治争议进入刑事司法程序。 1月11日 鲍威尔证实收到传票，并表示司法部正考虑就其2025年6月在国会作证时的证词提起刑事指控。 1月13日 上周，在美国司法部向美联储发出传票之后，多家央行罕见地发表联合声明声援美联储主席鲍威尔。这 种看似"干涉"美国内政的行动，反映出在美元信用不断下滑的背景下，欧美资本对可能出现系统性风险 的担忧在不断上升。 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔出席记者会。李源清摄（新华社） 多家央行在制定政策时，往往需要预判美联储的利率路径。若美联储决策从经济数据转向政治信号，其 参照系将出现重大调整，政策制定成本陡增，加剧金融市场波动。 欧洲央行、英国央行、加拿大央行等多家央行行长，以及国际清算银行（BIS）负责人发表联合声明公 开声援鲍威尔，强调维护美联储独立性"至关重要"。 美国联邦储备委员会大楼外景。胡友松摄（新华社） 多家央行的声援并非简单的道义支持，主要是基于维护各自金融体系稳定的经济利益考量。美联储作为 全球最重要的中央银行，在西方资本的语境之下，"货币政策独立性"是美元信用体系的基石。一旦美联 储的独立性因政治干预而受损 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：首席经济学家论坛 洪灏系莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人&CIO，中国首席经济学家论坛理 当前，传统金融体系正经历的"范式转变"，其影响远超许多人过去几十年所经历过的商业周期。时至 2026年1月中旬，美联储已不仅是全球基准利率的决定者，更已成为一场美国宪政与制度危机 constitutional crisis 的核心剧场。 然而，即便沃什获得提名，也无法完全消除美联储沦为"跛脚鸭"的风险。这是因为，虽然鲍威尔今年在 美联储主席的职位上任职14年已经到了隐退的年纪，但是如果国会银行委员会因为帝利斯的反对而形成 12-12投票无法通过下一任候选人提名的时候，美联储的主席则进入了"代理执行主席"的状态。 这时，鲍威尔可以选择继续履行其美联储主席的责任，或者现任的美联储副主席也可以越厨代庖。无论 如何，这种情景都不是特朗普政府想要看到的。 要理解当下，首先必须破除那个共识的错误认知——即美联储货币政策的运作是一个完全独立于美国政 府中的行政体系的，其运行在一个真空密封的、完全自治的孤岛之上。其实，"美联储独立性"过去是、 现在依然是 "政府内 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver is currently trading above $92.31, with an opening price of $94.36 per ounce and a current price of $93.12, reflecting a 3.53% increase, with a high of $94.75 and a low of $92.63, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Cook case is expected to impact the value of the US dollar significantly, with potential immediate effects on market sentiment and exchange rates [2] - The outcome of the Cook case will define the relationship between the Federal Reserve and executive power, affecting its credibility in combating inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy, as well as the institutional credibility of the dollar as a global reserve currency [2] Group 2 - The daily K-line chart for COMEX silver shows a clear upward trend, with consecutive higher peaks and troughs, indicating a typical trend continuation structure [3] - The key resistance level is at $94.099, which, if broken with volume, could lead to an acceleration in price movement [3] - Key support levels to watch include $91, which serves as a short-term pivot point, and $85, which is a more definitive mid-term support line that will determine if the strong trend can maintain its structure [3]

如果货币政策开始迎合政治诉求，这种公信力及其带来的益处就将面临风险，而这正是若总统能够随意 解雇美联储官员所可能产生的后果。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 白银目前在93美元上方运行，短期多空分界线92-92.5美元之上，多头强势；下破走弱看调整继续，调 整之后继续看涨，只有下破关键支撑86~87美元，那空头才有可能进一步走下行，不排除去80关口，甚 至是78美元，但是下来之后还是多头的机会。 上方的话，当前的历史高点暂时阻力，一旦多头发力，当前的历史高点会轻松突破，并上攻96.5-97美 元乃至100美元以上；然后101-102是重中之重，对于100美元大关，不认为一次性会站上，冲上100美元 是多头的巨大风险。 美联储成立一个多世纪以来，对其独立性最重要的考验本周三(1月21日)将在美国最高法院进行，焦点 在于法官们是否会按照国会的意图，保护美联储免受政治影响，还是会允许美国总统唐纳德.特朗普随 心所欲地进行人事清洗。 这起案件围绕特朗普试图因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈解雇美联储理事丽莎.库克，在极端情况下可能会侵蚀美 联储的独立性，但即便达不到这一结果，也可能为总统如何解除深度独立的央行治理机构成员职务提供 首个路线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on the "Trump v. Wilcox" case highlights the tension between presidential authority and the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook [1][2]. Group 1: Case Background - The case centers on whether the President has the unilateral power to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor, specifically Lisa Cook, who was appointed by President Biden and is the first African American woman to hold the position [1]. - In 2025, President Trump attempted to remove Cook based on unverified allegations, leading to her lawsuit against the dismissal, which resulted in a preliminary injunction from a district court [1]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - The U.S. Department of Justice argues that the President has broad dismissal powers, challenging the notion that Federal Reserve governors can only be removed "for cause" as stipulated by the Federal Reserve Act [2]. - The case poses a direct challenge to the protective clauses of the Federal Reserve Act regarding the terms of governors, with potential implications for the independence of monetary policy [2]. Group 3: Broader Impact on the Federal Reserve - The Supreme Court's decision could significantly affect the Federal Reserve's independence, which is crucial for maintaining public confidence in monetary policy [3]. - The case has drawn attention from former Federal Reserve chairs and top economists, warning that allowing presidential dismissal could undermine the political insulation established by Congress [1][3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The latest spot gold price is reported at 1044.47 CNY per gram, showing a decrease of 0.52 CNY, or 0.05%, from the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend during the day [1] - The opening price for the day was 1045.44 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 1046.78 CNY and a low of 1042.74 CNY [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence Case - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear a critical case regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, focusing on whether President Trump can dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of "alleged mortgage fraud" [2] - The case raises concerns about the definition of "just cause" for dismissing Fed officials, which could potentially undermine the Fed's independence and allow for political interference in monetary policy [2][3] - Legal and academic experts express worries that even if Cook remains, a lack of strict standards for "just cause" could open the door for presidential intervention, threatening the Fed's credibility in managing inflation [2][3] Group 3: Market Implications of the Court Ruling - The outcome of the Supreme Court ruling will have direct implications for the U.S. dollar and gold prices, with any signals weakening the Fed's independence likely to trigger a sell-off of the dollar [3] - If the Fed's independence is significantly eroded, the "excess privilege" of the dollar may be challenged, impacting global capital flows and asset pricing [3] - Gold is positioned as a key asset for "de-dollarization" and inflation hedging, gaining upward momentum due to the risks associated with the court case [3]

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 特朗普言论震惊欧洲，欧洲即将反击，美国最高院开审库克案，美联储降息概率反 复，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★★ | | | | | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，尽管白银未被征收关税，但同时交割交 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 易等持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年， | | | | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | 铜 | | 特朗普为夺取格陵兰岛威胁对欧洲加征关税，欧美关系恶化，美元走弱，美国持续 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 虹吸全球铜资源，短期铜重新站稳 10 万关口，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，中长 | | | | 期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业 ...

当地时间1月21日，美国最高法院将审理特朗普政府与美联储理事丽莎·库克的解雇纠纷。该案被视为美 联储成立以来独立性面临的最严峻法律考验，裁决不仅关乎库克职务存续，更将明确总统与美联储的权 力边界，影响美国货币政策稳定性及全球金融市场。 案件始于2025年8月，特朗普以库克涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解除其美联储理事职务。公开信 息显示，库克任期至2038年，远超特朗普总统任期。目前，针对库克的欺诈指控尚未正式提起，无金融 机构参与指控，相关行政调查程序亦未启动。库克随即提起诉讼，下级法院裁定其听证会前可继续履 职，特朗普政府不服裁决并上诉至最高法院。 核心法律争议聚焦《联邦储备法》"正当理由"条款。该条款限定总统仅能以"正当理由"解雇美联储理 事，保护理事不因利率政策争议等被随意解职，但未明确"正当理由"的具体界定标准。此条款此前未经 法庭检验，最高法院本次裁决将首次明确其适用范围。 双方论点分歧明确。特朗普团队主张，"正当理由"界定权归总统，总统认定的理由即可作为解雇依据。 这一主张若获支持，将大幅削弱《联邦储备法》对美联储理事的职务保护，使理事职位面临政治干预风 险。库克认为特朗普的解雇行为缺乏法律依据 ...