Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing volatility, with a recent 4.40% decline in international spot gold prices, followed by a rebound of over 1.5% due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a key indicator for short-term gold price movements, with expectations of a 55,000 increase in jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5% [3] - The report is significant as it is the first normal monthly employment data following the end of the U.S. government's record shutdown in 2025 [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are identified as a critical variable influencing gold prices, with spot gold prices expected to surpass the 4500 mark in 2026 [2] - Central bank gold purchases are on the rise, with global net purchases exceeding 1,200 tons in 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, and the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a turning point, with potential leadership changes that could impact future policy directions and, consequently, the gold market [2] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a structured approach to trading around the non-farm data release, including risk management strategies and technical setups [4] - During the data release, it is crucial to remain calm and observe the immediate market reactions, particularly the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices [5] - Post-data release, if the results significantly deviate from expectations, investors should assess the sustainability of price movements and adjust their positions accordingly [6] Group 4 - The trading platform, Leping Global, emphasizes the importance of professional trading tools in data-driven markets, offering a stable and efficient trading environment [7] - Leping Global provides promotional offers, including double points for trading during the non-farm week, which can enhance trading efficiency for short-term opportunities [7] - The company aims to support investors in navigating market volatility with professional insights and robust strategies [7]

对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，市场分歧加大，贵金属和有色板块开始出现降温，这也是近期部分品种 再次出现过热现象后多头获利了结的结果，笔者认为有序调整后有利于后续行情的发展，关注持续性。 （文华综合） 隔夜公布的美国经济数据良莠不齐，部分就业数据不及预期，劳动力市场表现偏低迷，周五美国非农就 业数据即将出炉，市场等待更多指引，并将在此基础上衡量美联储货币政策前景。前期贵金属携手有色 板块涨势过快，伴随着贵金属行情降温，有色金属也普遍回落，沪铜走势追随沪银。 沪铜早间低开震荡，午后跌幅有所扩大，收盘下跌2.76%，期价仍在十万关口上方。沪铜追随贵金属跌 势，高价对国内需求的抑制延续，国内社会库存继续累积，现货维持贴水局面。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 众所周知，欧佩克+作为油市供应端最主要的合作组织，其产量政策对油市的影响非常明显。近年来， 欧佩克+产量政策经历多番调整，2025年开始推进减产的逐步恢复计划，也就是市场所说的增产动作， 对原油市场形成利空影响。 2025年产油国的增产动作分为两个阶段，增产幅度与增产节奏截然不同。2025年4月份，欧佩克+开始 实施第一部分即220万桶/日自愿减产的恢复计划。连续六个月的时间内，欧佩克+增产经历了落地、提 速到进一步提速的转变，其中，4月增产13.8万桶/日，5月、6月、7月均增产41万桶/日，8月、9月均增 产55万桶/日。2025年9月份，欧佩克+提前一年完成220万桶/日自愿减产的恢复计划，叠加阿联酋因产 量基准调整而提升的30万桶/日增量，产油国累计增产计划量近250万桶/日。产油国第一阶段的增产节 奏明显快于市场预期，对油市的利空影响较为显著，叠加特朗普关税引发国际贸易争端、并且加重经济 及能源需求疲弱风险，以及特朗普斡旋地缘局势等利空因素，施压原油价格在1-5月份出现震荡下跌走 势。 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 桑潇 【导语】2026年1月4日 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals prices have pulled back from high levels, with silver experiencing a larger decline than gold due to profit - taking by some investors and position adjustments before the re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Fed easing are expected to limit the downside of gold prices. Silver, which has had a large increase previously, faces high short - term volatility risks [1]. - Gold prices dropped nearly 1% during the day. Given geopolitical tensions, Fed easing expectations, and continuous gold purchases by the Chinese central bank, the downside of gold is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday, the situation after the US raid on Venezuela, the weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and upcoming economic data [5]. - International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. Along with factors similar to those of gold, attention should also be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US economic data: In December, the ADP employment was 41,000 (expected 47,000, previous - 29,000), the JOLTs job openings in November were 7.146 million (expected 7.6 million, previous 7.449 million), the December ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (expected 52.3, previous 52.6), the October factory order monthly rate was - 1.3% (expected - 1.2%, previous 0.2%), and the October durable goods order monthly rate final value was - 2.2% (in line with expectations and previous value) [2]. - Chinese central bank's gold purchase: As of December 2025, the Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, with the gold reserve reaching 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from November. The foreign exchange reserve was $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion from November, rising for the 5th consecutive month [2]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment: Starting from January 9, 2026, the flat - today trading fee of the silver futures AG2604 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount. The trading margin ratio, daily price limit, and trading limit of some silver futures contracts will also be adjusted [3]. - Geopolitical event: On January 6, the US White House Press Secretary said that President Trump and his team are discussing "a series of options" to obtain Greenland, including "using the US military" [3]. Price Logic - Gold: The decline in gold prices during the day was nearly 1%. Given the weakening of the US economy, continuous gold purchases by the central bank, geopolitical tensions, and Fed easing expectations, the downside of gold prices is expected to be limited. Short - term attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls report on Friday [5]. - Silver: International silver prices dropped over 4% and Shanghai silver prices dropped nearly 4% during the day. Short - term volatility risks of silver at high levels have increased. In addition to factors similar to those of gold, attention should be paid to the results of the silver investigation in the US 232 report in mid - January [6]. Index Information - Special Index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [48]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on January 7, 2026, was 4030.94, with a daily decline of 0.67%, a 5 - day increase of 3.03%, a 1 - month increase of 14.46%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.40% [49].

与此同时，美国总统特朗普持续威胁要吞并格陵兰岛，这也成为市场面临的一个潜在风险。风险因素的 不断累积，为国际黄金价格在2026年初的上涨提供了关键动力。值得注意的是，地缘政治风险并非国际 黄金市场的唯一影响因素。 2026年，美联储的降息倾向以及美联储主席换届，均在一定程度上利好国际黄金市场的表现。2025年9 月，美联储正式开启降息周期，并且在2025年最后的三场货币政策会议上连续降息。进入2026年，美联 储内部对于下一步应该如何调整货币政策路径依然存在分歧。 2026年伊始，国际金价延续了2025年的火热势头。1月6日，国际现货黄金价格一度站上4500美元/盎 司，虽有波动，但总体而言，国际黄金价格仍维持在高位。2026年开年，美国与委内瑞拉之间的地缘政 治冲突点燃了市场的避险情绪，黄金作为重要的避险资产，继续受到市场投资者的追捧。 明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利表示，美联储距离停止降息已经非常接近。现在的政策立场已经非常接 近中性。需要有更多的数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧。 尽管当前美联储内部对后续的货币政策路径存在一定的分歧，但从目前的情况看，美联储在2026年可能 至少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina driven by low valuations, supply disruptions, and rising demand [1][2]. Group 1: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are surging due to tightening supply expectations from Indonesia and increased market sentiment, with nickel being relatively undervalued compared to other metals [2]. - Recent policy changes in Indonesia, including a reduction in nickel ore production quotas and a revision of the pricing formula for nickel, are expected to increase production costs [1][2]. - The solid-state battery industry's rapid development is anticipated to boost long-term demand for nickel, despite the current market fundamentals remaining weak [2]. Group 2: Tin Market - Tin prices are rising due to supply constraints and continuous demand growth, with recent production issues in Myanmar impacting supply significantly [2]. - The decline in ore quality from overseas sources is also contributing to the supply challenges in the tin market [2]. Group 3: Alumina Market - The increase in alumina prices is primarily driven by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to lead to industry upgrades and higher operational costs [2]. - Electricity costs account for 13% to 15% of alumina production costs, making the differential pricing policy a significant factor in market sentiment [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current lack of downstream demand for non-ferrous metals and limited acceptance of high-priced goods in the spot market may lead to a gradual adjustment in pricing through the futures market [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector may face significant correction risks in the medium to long term, particularly for alumina and lead, while the performance of nickel is heavily reliant on overseas policy factors [3]. - The market is expected to continue trading based on macroeconomic policies and supply security, with stronger performance anticipated for tin, copper, and aluminum, while nickel, zinc, and lead may perform relatively weaker [3].

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅提供其长期寻求的安全保 障取得了进展。 欧洲主要股指今年开局表现亮眼，投资者在美国对委内瑞拉发动袭击后大举买入国防和矿业股。 "市场对全球局势的发展反应冷静。关注重点再次集中于与美联储货币政策相关的通胀走势，"资产管理 公司MPPM交易主管Guillermo Hernandez Sampere表示，"今年的首批数据将指明某个方向。" 责任编辑：丁文武 责任编辑：丁文武 欧洲股市从历史高位回落，能源板块拖累大盘，此前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，委内瑞拉将向美 国移交价值多达28亿美元的石油。 斯托克600指数收盘价略低于前收盘水平，终结三连涨。建筑、工业和地产股领涨，国防股亦升。此 前，特朗普政府与乌克兰的盟友在周二举行的所谓自愿联盟会议上，就向基辅 ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 Z0012851 F3008987 宽幅震荡，大周期不变 摘 要： 2025 年全球经济在承压状态下缓慢复苏，全球经济新的增长点和拉动力量 没有显著出现，百年未有之大变局加速演化，美元信用担忧加剧，以上各种因素 叠加使得黄金走出历史性的大涨行情，而人工智能对贵金属的需求预期，供需紧 平衡的结构同样使得白银走出了历史上最为剧烈的补涨行情。展望 2026 年，全 球经济或依然处于一个缓慢复苏的状态，虽然美国中期选举或使得国际地缘冲突 暂时有所减弱，但是百年未有之大变局持续演化的趋势不会改变，货币多元化和 美元信用的长期走弱的趋势不会改变，这些因素依然对贵金属长期上涨趋势存在 支撑，但经历了 2025 年的大涨行情之后，或存在阶段性的震荡回调、再蓄势的 过程，2026 年贵金属应重点把握结构性的机会。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 曹宝琴 投资咨询证号： 展望 2026 年，市场普遍预期，美国中期选举或使得特朗普政府的主要矛盾 指向美国内部两党的席位之争，目前市场预期为共和党或依然保持对参议院的控 制权，但是有可能失去众议院的控制权，如果这样的预期兑现，国际地缘或保持 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 霍星羽）Choice数据显示，2025年有色金属（申万行业2021年版）板块整 体涨幅为88.21%，"夺冠"全市场。步入2026年，这场"有色盛宴"是否仍将延续？ 记者采访获悉，2026 年有色板块上行逻辑不变，但波动幅度、择时难度将加大。2026年国内外宏观环境仍总体利多有色， 铜、铝、镍和锡等品种，有望出现结构性牛市。2026年一季度有色板块或迎来"开门红"。 华鑫期货研 究所所长章孜海接受上证报记者采访时表示，有色金属有商品属性和金融属性，受到宏观面与供需基本 面的双重影响。 中信建投期货有色首席分析师江露表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步 渐进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。 章孜海预计，下半年美联储或降息两次。国内，中央经济工 作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。海内外宏观面形成共振，对风险 资产的影响偏积极。 在江露看来，贵金属价格正处于高位强势运行状态，且这种态势持续向有色板块 传导。基本面也为金属价格提供坚实支撑。需求端，"十五五"规划长期利好有色需求，"智能化、绿色 化"政策会推动新能源汽车、光伏、特高压等领域高速发展，有色 ...

2026.01. 06 美国合众银行财富管理部高级投资策略师哈沃斯（Rob Haworth）表示："能源股的大涨，主要是市 场预期特朗普总统将推动美国企业加大对委内瑞拉的投资，最终实现盈利增长。"他补充道，"美国并 未计划在当地长期驻军，也不会开展持续性军事介入，这意味着整体股市可以不必担忧局势演变为长 期冲突，从而消除了一大潜在顾虑。" 标普500航空航天与国防指数创下历史新高。军工巨头通用动力和洛克希德・马丁的股价也获得提 振，分别上涨3.5%和2.9%。有分析认为，特朗普此次的行动表明，快速军事打击将成为其应对地缘 政治问题的核心政策手段。 本文字数：1912，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 尽管美国上周末对委内瑞拉采取军事行动，但受原油价格上涨以及投资者押注此举不会引发冲击市场 的 大 规 模 地 缘 政 治 冲 突 影 响 ， 美 股 周 一 上 涨 。 截 至 收 盘 ， 道 指 涨 594.79 点 ， 涨 幅 1.23% ， 报 48977.18点，盘中首次突破49000点创下历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，报23395.82点，标普500指数涨 0.64%，报6902.05点。 ...