Core Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti highlighted the ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of global tariffs on the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The belief remains that the US economy will continue to grow, but inflation issues and their influence on Federal Reserve policy are still unknown [1] - The market generally anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the meeting on September 16-17, but there is divergence among investors regarding the pace of subsequent policy adjustments [1] - Ermotti stated that the true impact of tariffs will be felt by consumers, and it remains unclear whether tariffs will lead to inflationary effects [1]

Labor Market and Federal Reserve - The August jobs report showed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest in over a year [1] - The New York Fed's August Survey indicated a historical low in worker confidence, with a 44.9% probability of finding another job if current employment is lost [1][2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, with 88.2% of traders expecting a 25 basis point cut and 11.8% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [1][3] Kraft-Heinz Spinoff - Kraft-Heinz announced a spinoff into two independent companies, causing an initial stock decline of 7%, which settled at a 2.4% drop by market close [3][4] - Warren Buffett, a significant stakeholder with a 27.5% stake, expressed skepticism about the merger's success and the effectiveness of the spinoff [4] - The spinoff is notable as it is the only one in Q3 2023, contributing to a total of 12 spinoffs for the year, compared to a peak of 39 in 2021 [5] Consumer Behavior and Earnings Reports - Kroger is performing well, with a focus on value-driven consumers, expecting a year-over-year earnings growth of 6% for Q2 [8] - Restoration Hardware is experiencing resilience in the home goods market, with higher-income consumers continuing to invest in their homes despite economic headwinds [9] - Potential tariff headwinds from investigations into furniture imports could impact companies like Restoration Hardware, Williams Sonoma, and Wayfair [10] Market Outlook - Upcoming economic indicators, spinoffs, and corporate earnings reports are expected to introduce market volatility, with significant attention on the inflation (CPI) report [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf supports the Federal Reserve's independence while acknowledging President Trump's right to express his views on monetary policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Scharf emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence, noting that its leaders serve distinct terms from elected officials like the president [2] - He distinguishes between the president's opinions on interest rates and the actual impact on the Fed's independence [2][3] Group 2: Political Influence and Market Expectations - Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Fed to lower interest rates, criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not acting sooner [4][6] - Recent market expectations indicate a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the Fed's upcoming September meeting, driven by lighter-than-expected inflation data and signs of labor market trouble [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. preliminary benchmark payrolls revision indicates a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the one-year period ending March 2025, marking the largest revision on record, suggesting a weaker labor market than previously reported [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time this year, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut being considered instead of the previously forecasted 25 basis points due to the new labor market data [2] Group 2 - Rate-sensitive assets such as crypto, gold, and long-dated bonds experienced volatility, with gold futures initially surging past $3,700 before giving back gains and closing flat at $3,679 [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline from $113,000 to $111,600, reflecting a 1% drop over the past 24 hours, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.07%, threatening to dip below 4% for the first time since February [4]

Core Points - A senior aide to President Trump emphasized that the Federal Reserve must remain "completely independent of political influence," including from Trump himself [1] - The aide, Kevin Hassett, stated that allowing national leaders to control central banks often leads to inflation and consumer pain [1] - Trump's repeated calls for immediate interest rate cuts and his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the Fed's ability to set rates without political interference [1] - The potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by Trump has also sparked controversy, with Cook filing a lawsuit against the dismissal [2] - Hassett mentioned that he has no plans for comprehensive reform of the Fed and is focused on his current responsibilities [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset called for increased scrutiny of the Fed, including its rate-setting powers, which Hassett supports [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve should operate independently from political pressures, as stated by Kevin Hassett [1] - Historical evidence suggests that political control over central banks can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as inflation [1] Political Influence and Controversies - Trump's demands for rate cuts and his public criticism of Powell have led to doubts about the Fed's independence [1] - The situation surrounding the potential firing of Fed Governor Cook has raised questions about the established norms of Fed operations [2] Future of the Federal Reserve - Hassett is on a shortlist of candidates to succeed Powell, whose term ends in May 2026 [1] - There are no immediate plans for major reforms within the Fed, according to Hassett [1] - The Treasury Secretary's call for more oversight of the Fed's powers indicates a potential shift in the relationship between the Treasury and the Fed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The August non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, marking a deviation of -2.68 standard deviations. The previous value was revised from 73,000 to 79,000, with a cumulative downward revision of 21,000 for the prior two months. The June non-farm payrolls were adjusted from an initial value of 147,000 to -13,000, the first negative reading since 2021. The unemployment rate stood at 4.324%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.248% [3][4]. Employment Data - The labor market shows a weak demand for labor, with the three-month average non-farm payrolls at 29,000, which is the worst since October 2010 when excluding pandemic effects. The employment diffusion index for one year is at 58.4, indicating only 58.4% of companies are hiring, the lowest for a non-recession period. The one-month diffusion index is at 49.6, below the breakeven line, also the lowest for a non-recession period [5][4]. Supply and Demand Structure - The labor market is characterized by a "distorted balance" of weak supply and demand. The labor supply is marginally weakening due to early retirements and the expulsion of illegal immigrants, with the labor participation rate for those aged 55 and above still 2.2% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Labor demand continues to weaken due to previous shocks and high interest rates, with the year-on-year growth rate of total non-farm employment at 0.93%, showing a downward trend [5][4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Three key data points will influence the Federal Reserve's stance at the September FOMC meeting: the initial non-farm payrolls calibration on September 9, PPI on September 10, and CPI on September 11. The expectation is for a 25 basis points rate cut, with the dot plot indicating an additional 1-2 cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations. However, there are risks of a more dovish or hawkish approach depending on the data outcomes [6][4]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market initially reacted positively, interpreting the bad news as good news (leading to rate cuts and a soft landing). However, the sentiment shifted to viewing bad news as bad news, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and copper prices, while other asset classes experienced volatility. Currently, traders expect the Fed to cut rates 1.1 times in September and 2.9 times throughout the year [4][6].

Group 1: Hot Topics - The article discusses the "fiscal championship" among the US, Europe, and Japan, questioning which region is more proactive and how this will influence economic growth in 2026 [4][5]. - It highlights the economic structure since August, indicating a trend of "external demand resilience and weak internal demand," and explores the underlying changes and future economic fundamentals [5]. Group 2: High-Frequency Tracking - The August PMI data reflects a contrast between price expectations and reality, with supply contraction expectations boosting prices while actual production remains strong, necessitating attention to anti-involution policy effects [6]. - Industrial production shows continued differentiation, with infrastructure construction recovering while real estate transactions remain weak [8]. Group 3: Service Industry Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of service industry opening, noting that while the service sector's share is increasing, its growth has slowed in recent years [10]. - It outlines the stages of service industry opening in China since 2001, including exploration, innovation, and deepening phases [10]. - Future service industry openings are expected to focus on telecommunications, digital industries, healthcare, and finance [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will cause the price performance of platinum, which has stronger financial attributes, to outperform palladium. The speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting set the tone for an interest - rate cut in the September policy meeting. Considering the weakening of the US labor market and the Fed's stance, there may be more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining policy meetings of this year. In this context, platinum prices are expected to continue to perform better than palladium, and the strategy suggests buying platinum on dips [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased 69.15%, the open interest of the main contract rose 0.86%, the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 1.35%, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1080 lots, and the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.22% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract rose 1.15% to $1141.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 2.60%, the open interest of the main contract rose 3.25%, the inventory increased 4.72%, the CFTC managed - fund net short position increased by 759 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position decreased by 92 lots, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 2.22% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price has support near the ascending - trend baseline and has room for further rebound. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized at around $1100 per ounce but is expected to face significant resistance when rebounding to $1255 per ounce [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 580 lots to 85575 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 5.75% to 332.65 yuan/gram as of September 4. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 15.23%, indicating a significant relief in the overseas spot shortage. The NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots to 14731 lots as of August 26 [21][27][31]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 6.66% to $1141.5 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 1590 lots to 18920 lots. The NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 6614 lots as of August 26 [24][37]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: The total platinum ETF holdings were 74.25 tons as of September 4. The CME platinum inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 16.49 tons this week [48][55]. - **Palladium**: The total palladium ETF holdings were 13.5 tons as of September 4. The CME palladium inventory was 4346.17 kilograms as of September 4, an increase of 2401.25 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply this year [66]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024, showing a slight contraction in mine - end supply [69]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in July were 7.57 tons, a decline from June, while palladium imports in July were 3.24 tons, an increase from June [72][75]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, but no specific conclusions about supply - demand relationships are drawn from these data in the text [76][79][82]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the global palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.50 tons in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [90]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [98]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spread**: Charts of the spread between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a "buy on dips" approach for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [11]. Core Viewpoints - Influenced by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices showed strong performance this month. COMEX gold and silver prices outperformed domestic prices. The Fed is likely to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance in the September FOMC meeting and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Silver prices are expected to have stronger upward momentum compared to gold as the Fed's monetary policy turns accommodative [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Monthly Summary**: Affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices were strong this month. COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver prices broke through the $40 per ounce mark, rising 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce. Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting signaled the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle. Trump's team's actions have undermined the Fed's independence, and the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September [11]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Fed's monetary policy becomes more accommodative, silver prices will have stronger upward drivers than gold. The current gold - to - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in October. The Fed may cut rates more than the market expects in the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The recommended trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 801 - 840 yuan per gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 9,526 - 11,000 yuan per kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: As of September 4, COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 3.56% to 812.98 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce, and SHFE silver main contract prices rose 5.56% to 9,773 yuan per kilogram [11][29]. - **Position and Volume**: Domestic gold positions performed better than foreign ones this month. SHFE gold total positions increased by 0.44% to 439,900 lots, while COMEX gold total positions decreased by 0.34% to 443,800 lots. Domestic silver positions also outperformed foreign ones. SHFE silver total positions increased by 5.42% to 838,100 lots, while COMEX silver total positions decreased by 6.87% to 158,600 lots. As of the latest report date, COMEX gold and silver managed - fund net positions both increased [32][35][37]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope reached 2,224.4 tons as of September 4, and the total holdings of foreign silver ETFs were 27,665.94 tons. The total holdings of gold and silver ETFs continued to rise [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents various interest - rate charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, short - term Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, and inflation expectations [51][54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's total assets decreased by $38.772 billion this month. The Treasury's TGA account balance increased, the deposit reserve scale declined, and the U.S. dollar liquidity tightened [56][59]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In July, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending August 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 237,000, higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and below the boom - bust line. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 and above the boom - bust line [70]. - **New Housing Data**: In July, the annualized total of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [73]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The foreign gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) increased, while the domestic gold basis (AuT + D - SHFE gold) decreased [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The foreign silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) decreased, while the domestic silver basis (AgT + D - SHFE silver) increased [12]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows various silver inventory charts, including the combined inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of SHFE, SGE, COMEX, and LBMA [90][92]. - **Gold Inventories**: The report presents charts of COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [93].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Entering September, China's refined copper production is expected to decline. Coupled with the expected decrease in recycled copper substitution and the seasonal recovery of demand, the copper supply is relatively balanced. Overseas demand is expected to improve, but there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation. The market has already anticipated the Fed's interest rate cut. The focus is on its attitude towards subsequent monetary policy. If it remains dovish, it will further boost market sentiment. Overall, the decline in domestic copper production and the seasonal improvement in consumption will provide strong support for copper prices. If the Fed continues to be dovish, copper prices are expected to rise. If the Fed's stance is neutral, the increase in copper prices is expected to be weaker. This month, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 77,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M copper is expected to be between 9,600 - 10,400 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the marginal supply of domestic crude copper has tightened. The production of domestic refined copper has declined, and the decline is expected to widen in September [9]. - Demand: In August, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have continued to grow. In September, with the higher base, the apparent consumption is expected to decline. The overseas manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, and the short - term demand is expected to be okay [9]. - Import and Export: In August, the import window for SHFE copper opened, and the estimated import volume increased [9]. - Inventory: In August, the inventories of SHFE, LME, COMEX, and bonded areas all increased. It is estimated that there will still be some pressure for inventory accumulation overseas in September [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In August, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main SHFE copper contract rose 1.76% and the LME 3M copper contract rose 3.11%. The upward resonance of the global equity market and the increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut were the main reasons for the rise in copper prices. The US dollar index fell 2.16%, and the offshore RMB appreciated 1.22% [17]. - Market Spreads: In August, the inventory in the London market continued to increase, and the spot was relatively loose. The SHFE copper trend was stronger than that of LME copper, and the import window opened once. The COMEX - LME copper spread maintained a range - bound operation [20]. - Inventory & Basis: As of the end of August, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 574,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the beginning of August. The LME copper inventory continued to increase slightly, and the increase slowed down recently. The total COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, increasing by about 18,000 tons in August. In terms of the basis, the increase in LME inventory pushed Cash/3M to maintain a discount, and the discount narrowed at the beginning of September. In China, the basis remained firm due to the tight supply of scrap copper, reporting about 180 yuan/ton at the beginning of September [23][26]. - Fund Sentiment: As of the end of August, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 12%. The LME investment fund's long - position ratio declined, and the sentiment was still cautious. In September, the impact on market sentiment is expected to come from the Fed's monetary policy path, inventory changes, etc. [29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Copper Ore: In July, Chile's copper ore production rebounded month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level. In June, Peru's copper ore production increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Recently, there has still been some interference in overseas copper ore supply, but the impact has weakened marginally. In August, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply at ports was marginally loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates first rose and then fell in August, reporting - 41.5 US dollars/ton at the end of August. The supply - demand relationship remained tight. In September, as domestic smelting maintenance is expected to increase, TC is expected to rise [34][37]. - Supply - Refined Copper: Since August, the processing fees for domestic crude copper and imported crude copper have fluctuated and declined. Recently, the adjustment of domestic recycled copper policies has led to a decrease in the production of crude copper and anode copper from scrap, and the supply has tightened marginally. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, has declined month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level, contributing positively to smelting revenue. In August, the smelter's operating rate remained high, and the production of domestic refined copper only declined slightly. In September, there will be more domestic copper smelting maintenance, and coupled with the decrease in the production of anode copper from scrap copper, the production of refined copper is expected to decline significantly (about 50,000 tons) [40][43]. - Supply - Recycled Copper: In August, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 1,070 yuan/ton, continuing to narrow month - on - month. The substitution advantage of scrap copper was at a relatively low level. In August, under the expectation of standardizing investment promotion in various regions, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises continued to decline. In September, the recycled copper policy will become clearer. Once the policy is implemented, it is expected to bring greater pressure to recycled copper enterprises. If upstream recycling enterprises do not adjust prices, the recycled copper rod will maintain a low operating rate [46]. - Demand - China: Assuming an increase in net imports in August, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.394 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 10.747 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In August, the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in China rebounded, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI returned above the boom - bust line, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. In the first seven months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.4%. In August, the operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded slightly and is expected to continue to rise in September. In August, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises fluctuated, and the average operating rate was lower than the same period last year. In September, there was a marginal improvement. In August, the operating rate of domestic wire and cable enterprises increased and is expected to continue to rise in September. As of July, the raw material and finished - product inventories of copper product and wire and cable enterprises decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large. In July, the year - on - year investment in the power sector decreased, and the year - on - year increase in new photovoltaic installations decreased significantly, resulting in weak related demand. High - frequency data shows that in August, domestic real estate transaction data improved month - on - month, while the production schedule of home appliances in the real estate's back - end was relatively weak; automobile sales remained relatively strong [49][52][55][58][61][64]. - Demand - Overseas: In August, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies improved. According to ICSG data, in June 2025, the global refined copper consumption increased month - on - month and maintained year - on - year growth. From January to June, consumption increased by about 5.1% [68]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US employment data in July was weak, and the inflation data rebounded. In late August, the Fed Chairman's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting was dovish. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed at this month's interest rate meeting. However, the actual interest rate cut amplitude and path of the Fed are still uncertain, and its impact on the market may be greater. In August, the US dollar index was relatively weak and is currently in a downward trend; the US 10 - year inflation expectation fluctuated and is waiting for a further direction [72][74].