Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy on global financial markets, highlighting significant declines in U.S. stock indices and drawing historical parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which had devastating effects on global trade and the economy [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices experienced declines of 4.84% and 5.41% on April 3, and further drops of 5.97% and 6.07% on April 4, with the Nasdaq 100 entering a technical bear market with a total decline of 21.55% since February 20 [2][4]. - In contrast, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed relatively milder declines, with the CSI All Share Index and Hang Seng Index falling by 0.78% and 1.52% respectively on April 3 [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article references the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a 67% drop in global trade from $36 billion to $12 billion between 1929 and 1933, and a 68% decline in U.S. exports from $5.2 billion in 1929 to $1.6 billion in 1932 [6][12]. - The historical context emphasizes that trade wars can lead to severe economic downturns and a breakdown of multilateral cooperation, which could have long-lasting implications [6][12]. Group 3: Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. has set high tariff rates as a negotiation tactic, aiming to reshape international trade rules and compel other nations to make concessions on tariffs, market access, and regulatory frameworks [9][10]. - The article suggests that both the U.S. and its trading partners are likely to engage in negotiations rather than escalating trade conflicts indefinitely, given their interdependent economic relationships [10][11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The potential worst-case scenario involves escalating tariff retaliation leading to a significant contraction in global trade, reminiscent of the 1930s, which could result in economic stagnation and structural shortages, ultimately pushing parties back to the negotiation table [12][14]. - Despite the negative impacts of tariff increases on economic growth, the article notes that consumption and investment could offset some of the adverse effects, with public spending becoming a crucial factor in mitigating economic downturns [14]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article advises maintaining a solid fixed-income position as a safety net, suggesting that a 50% allocation to equities should be the ceiling for ordinary investors, with higher allocations to fixed income providing better risk mitigation during market downturns [16]. - It also recommends diversifying investments across different asset classes to smooth out volatility and improve overall portfolio performance [16][17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the U.S. government's new tariff policies on global trade and the economy, particularly focusing on the implications for China and other countries such as the EU, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea [2][4][5]. Core Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade**: The U.S. tariff increases are expected to reduce global export volumes by 20% to 30%. Japan and South Korea have seen tariffs of 24% and 25% respectively, with market reactions showing less decline than anticipated but a stronger rebound [2][5]. - **Economic Recession Risks**: The likelihood of a U.S. economic recession has risen above 50%, with GDP growth projected to be impacted by 2-3 percentage points due to the new tariffs [5][10]. - **Retaliatory Measures**: The EU and China are expected to implement retaliatory measures against the U.S. tariffs, with the EU indicating potential increases in import tariffs and regulatory costs for U.S. companies operating in Europe [4][5]. - **Global Trade Contraction**: A new round of high tariffs could lead to a global trade contraction of 15% to 25%, comparable to the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [5][7]. - **Market Volatility**: The U.S. stock market may experience declines, with credit spreads widening and tighter financial conditions emerging as a result of the tariffs [5][10]. - **De-dollarization Trend**: The weakening of the dollar indicates an accelerating trend of de-dollarization, which is closely linked to rising import prices and reduced purchasing power in the U.S. [2][5][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Focus on Key Indicators**: In the coming months, it is crucial to monitor retaliatory measures from other countries, export data from major economies, U.S. domestic consumption and investment, inflation changes, stock market volatility, credit spread changes, and dollar exchange rate trends to assess the effects of the new policies [6][11]. - **China's Economic Response**: China's economic response to the global trade shock will focus on government investment, fiscal policies, and consumer subsidies to mitigate the impact of reduced exports [7][18]. - **Investment Strategies**: In light of the high tariff scenario, corporate profit growth is expected to decline by 5% to 10%, with export-oriented companies being more adversely affected. Defensive sectors such as banking and transportation are viewed favorably [18][21]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Different sectors will experience varying levels of impact from the tariffs, with some industries potentially benefiting from exemptions or reduced tariff burdens [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the potential economic ramifications of U.S. tariff policies and the strategic responses from affected countries and sectors.

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report [1][8] - Report Date: March 31, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. The market's expectation of production cuts increased, boosting sentiment, but due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [2][4]. - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak while supply expansion pressure remains, and market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the active production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills, the market's expectation of production cuts increased, and the spot market saw both volume and price increase. However, due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 23, Premier Li Qiang stated that more proactive macro - policies will be implemented, and counter - cyclical adjustment efforts will be further increased [6]. - On March 24, the Ministry of Finance announced that the 2025 fiscal policy will be more proactive, supporting the expansion of domestic demand [6]. - The vice - secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction in the industry, and establishing a new capacity governance mechanism is the key [6]. - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was - 1.55 billion yuan [6]. - As of March 24, the number of national automobile trade - in applications exceeded 1.5 million, and the number of home appliance and electric bicycle trade - ins also increased significantly [6]. - In April, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 24 million units, a 9.1% increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease year - on - year; the production schedule of washing machines is 7.4 million units, a 1.4% increase year - on - year [7]. - In mid - March 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased by 1.6%, 2.1%, and 5.3% respectively [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 115,000 tons, higher than last week's 105,100 tons. The trading volume in the northern region increased significantly due to improved construction conditions [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak, and supply expansion pressure remains. Market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, take profits; for steel profits, mainly wait and see [2][21]

Core Viewpoint - Technological innovation is the core driving force for high-quality development in the context of profound changes in the global economic landscape, with ICBC Investment actively exploring new paths for hard technology investment based on patient capital [1] Group 1: Patient Capital Principles - To embody patient capital, four principles must be adhered to: long-term investment, value investment, risk investment, and strategic investment [2] - Long-term investment requires strong fundraising capabilities to support long-term plans despite potential short-term returns being negligible [2] - Value investment emphasizes tolerance for short-term projects lacking dividends or cash flow, while ensuring overall profitability and self-development remain unaffected [2] - Risk investment necessitates maintaining operational stability despite potential failures in individual projects, ensuring sufficient risk resilience [2] - Strategic investment involves participating in corporate governance to empower invested enterprises, requiring high levels of comprehensive service capability [2] Group 2: Unique Advantages of Bank-affiliated AICs - Bank-affiliated AICs possess five unique advantages in hard technology investment compared to traditional VC/PE [3] - They uphold the responsibilities of state-owned banks, demonstrating strong policy implementation capabilities [3] - They leverage parent bank platforms to enhance equity financing accessibility and share customer, channel, and brand resources [3] - They provide comprehensive financial services through a new model of investment-loan linkage, covering various financial products throughout the enterprise lifecycle [3] - They inherit a prudent risk culture from banks, establishing a solid foundation for long-term stable operations [3] - They have smooth capital replenishment and funding channels, enabling long-term financial support for the real economy [3] Group 3: Investment Practices in Hard Technology - ICBC Investment focuses on three main aspects when selecting investment targets: the region of the enterprise, the industry, and the enterprise's own capabilities [4] - It targets key regional strategic layouts and innovation centers, providing long-term capital support for high-quality transformation [4] - It emphasizes industries related to national strategic security and competitiveness, focusing on emerging and future industries with high growth potential [4] - It evaluates enterprises based on six core competitive dimensions, ensuring alignment with government support and industry recognition [4] Group 4: Role of Financial Capital in Emerging Industries - Financial capital plays a unique role in the growth of emerging industries through three main functions [5] - It acts as a counter-cyclical regulator, maintaining rational investment during industry overheating and supporting core competitive enterprises during downturns [5] - It provides comprehensive services tailored to the changing financial needs of tech enterprises at different development stages [5] - It actively participates in corporate governance, ensuring balanced interests among stakeholders and promoting effective decision-making [5] Group 5: Contribution to Technological Innovation Ecosystem - Through the practice of patient capital, ICBC Investment not only provides stable funding support for hard technology enterprises but also contributes to the construction of a technological innovation ecosystem, injecting new momentum into high-quality development [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, highlighting strong performance in 2024 and limited impact from adjusted economic assumptions on core indicators [1]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the brokerage sector is strong, with 76% of listed brokerages reporting positive net profit growth in 2024, and a year-on-year increase in net profit of 15% [2]. - The insurance sector also showed impressive results, with a total net profit of 3,476 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.7% [2]. - The report emphasizes the stability of the industry structure, with major players like CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan leading the market [2]. - Investment strategies are shifting towards high-dividend stocks, with a significant increase in equity investments among brokerages [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,915.17 with a slight increase of 0.01%, while the non-bank index decreased by 0.10% [5]. - The brokerage index reported a decline of 0.51%, while the insurance index increased by 0.63% [5]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of March 28, 2025, the average daily stock trading volume was 15,420.55 billion yuan, indicating a decrease of 16.22% from the previous month [15][54]. - The financing balance reached 19,265.50 billion yuan, showing a year-to-date increase of 3.3% [15][57]. Key Company Announcements - China Life reported a net profit of 1,069.35 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 108.9% [22]. - New China Life achieved a net profit of 262 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 201.1% [25]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 217.04 billion yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year [26]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector, particularly for companies like China Galaxy and CITIC Securities [2]. - In the insurance sector, it suggests continued investment in New China Life and China Life due to their strong performance [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments to support sustained economic growth and stability [1][2] - The Chinese economy shows significant vitality through various sectors such as film, tourism, and technology, indicating strong domestic economic potential [1] - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5%, reflecting confidence in its governance capabilities and future development potential [2] Group 2 - The focus is on deepening economic reforms and promoting a unified national market to enhance the business environment and support innovation [2] - The international perspective highlights the importance of open markets and resource sharing among nations to address global economic fragmentation and uncertainty [3] - China is committed to maintaining economic globalization, advocating for fair competition, and facilitating foreign enterprises' integration into the Chinese market [3]

面向家庭部门的财政扩张应该是当前逆周期调节的主要载体。不同于货币政策，财政政策可以通过政府 与家庭部门直接发生经济与交易行为（转移支付、税收等）而快速有效地作用于消费。把提振消费作为 第一重点任务，必然意味财政政策是逆周期调节的第一有效工具。具体而言，完善社会保障体系，尤其 是改善弱势群体的保障，促进中低收入群体增收减负，是结合民生与消费的有效抓手。综合来看，面向 家庭部门的财政扩张可以兼顾稳增长、扎实推进共同富裕以及应对地缘经济挑战，达到一举多得的效 果。 现阶段面向家庭部门的财政扩张，尤其改善社会保障机制，既促进当前消费需求，也促进未来的财政自 动稳定器功能，是兼顾逆周期和跨周期（调整结构）的有效手段。短期来看，面向家庭的财政扩张可能 带来一定的财政收支缺口，因而要辅之以融资端增加国债发行。长远来看，则需要推动财税体制改革， 比如增加具有累进属性的直接税有利于调节收入差距、增强财政的自动稳定器功能。党的二十届三中全 会《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》提出"健全直接税体系""规范经营 所得、资本所得、财产所得税收政策，实行劳动性所得统一征税""研究同新业态相适应的税收制 度"等，是 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with an increased fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies while introducing new measures to stimulate economic growth. Key areas of focus include increasing the fiscal deficit rate, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing local government financial capacity [7][9]. Summary by Sections 2024 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Characteristics - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 21,970.212 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase from 2023, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% [2]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% to 28,461.225 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 40,600 billion yuan, consistent with the budget [3]. Government Fund Budget - The national government fund budget revenue was 62,090.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% [4]. State-owned Capital Management Budget - The state-owned capital management budget revenue was 6,782.88 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 14.5%, while expenditure decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan [5]. Social Insurance Fund Budget - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.7 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with expenditures reaching 106,061.28 billion yuan, a 7% increase [6]. 2025 Fiscal Policy Directions - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit amounting to 56,600 billion yuan [10]. - The issuance of government bonds will be expanded, including 13,000 billion yuan in long-term special bonds and 5,000 billion yuan for capital replenishment of state-owned banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more targeted and effective fiscal policy to support domestic demand, modern industry development, and social welfare improvements [7][9]. 2025 Budget Overview - The national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21,985 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.1%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 4.4% to 29,700.5 billion yuan [10]. - The government fund budget revenue is anticipated to be 62,499.09 billion yuan, with a significant increase in expenditure by 23.1% [11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the economy, with a focus on policy support and external demand as key drivers for growth [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall economic recovery is still reliant on policy measures and external demand, with internal dynamics such as consumer spending and private investment needing improvement [3][4]. - The production sector shows steady performance, with industrial value-added growth at 5.9% year-on-year for January-February 2025, slightly lower than December 2024's 6.2% [8][10]. - Consumer spending is recovering, with retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, up from 3.7% in December 2024 [17][21]. - Investment is showing marginal improvement, with fixed asset investment growth at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, compared to 3.2% for the entire previous year [24][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Production: Steady Performance - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 is 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.51% in February [8][10]. - Export-oriented sectors like transportation equipment and automotive show the highest growth rates, while real estate-related sectors remain subdued due to slow downstream demand [10][12]. 2. Consumption: Bright Performance in Services - Social retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, higher than December 2024's 3.7% [17][21]. - Service retail sales increased by 4.9%, although this is a decline from December's 6.2% [17][21]. - Online consumption shows a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in January-February 2025, compared to 1.5% in December 2024 [21][22]. 3. Investment: Marginal Improvement - Fixed asset investment growth is at 4.1% year-on-year for January-February 2025, an increase from 3.2% in the previous year [24][25]. - Real estate investment shows a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, while manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments grow at 9.0% and 10.0%, respectively [25][26]. - The improvement in broad infrastructure investment is primarily driven by high growth in electricity and heat supply investments, which increased by 25.4% [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks outlined in the government work report following the 2025 National Two Sessions, focusing on economic growth, consumption potential, asset price stability, and market confidence restoration [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun emphasizes the need for China to maintain a medium-speed economic growth rate of at least 4% to surpass the high-income threshold, suggesting that the nominal growth rate should exceed the actual growth rate [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of consumption as a key driver of economic growth, noting that China's final consumption accounts for nearly 20 percentage points less of GDP compared to international levels [2]. - Liu Shijun proposes increasing urban and rural residents' pensions from 220 yuan per person per month to around 400 yuan in one to two years, aiming for 600 yuan in three years and 1,000 yuan in five years, which could activate over 1 trillion yuan in consumption potential [3]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments and Market Confidence - Wang Yiming points out that the government work report prioritizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, reflecting a shift in policy focus from investment to consumption [4][5]. - The report indicates that stabilizing asset prices, particularly housing prices, is crucial, with a need for clear responsibilities and effective policies to manage supply and demand [6]. - Liu Yuanchun notes that the policy framework for 2025 must be adaptable to uncertainties, with a focus on maintaining a strong decision-making capacity in response to external shocks and internal risks [8][9]. Group 3: Enhancing Business Vitality - Yang Ruilong identifies four key areas to stimulate the vitality of domestic business entities: clarifying property rights, allowing self-management and accountability, ensuring fair competition, and minimizing unnecessary administrative intervention [10][11]. - The article stresses the importance of protecting private enterprise rights and creating a competitive environment for private businesses, particularly in infrastructure and major research projects [11].